A
-*
B EASIKG OFF of industrial demand for chemists and chemical engineers, and other scientists and engineers as well, is one noticeable trend in the spring of 1954. Nevertheless, there is still a strong demand for chemists and chemical engineers. A second major factor in the scientific and technical manpower field is the apparent adoption by Selective Service Officials of the concept-of universal military service rather than selective service, This attitude is resulting in a rapidly diminishing number of deferments for scientists and engineers, both in industry and in graduate schools. Agricultural and undergraduate student deferments are holding up fairly well. Considering provisions of the law calling for selective and not universal service and policy statements by Congress and the President that national welfare requires maximum efforts in fields of scientific research and development, most manpower authorities are concerned with this developing trend. One reason advanced to explain the situation is that deferments are being considered on the basis of current needs rather than stepped-up mobilization needs should a war come. A third factor is the increasing number of scientists and engineers who now are in the reserves and who would be subject to call to active duty in the event of an emergency. Supply of new chemists and chemical engineers is a t a low point. It should begin to improve starting with the 1954-55 school year. One area-science teaching-however, is approaching the catastrophic stage. This is due to the rapidly decreasing number of science teachers and an increasing influx of students. Demand for chemists and chemical engineers is still great, even though there have been some indications of leveling off. Industry’s attempts to locate qualified men are still continuing a t a steady pace. A new supply-demand study covering the chemical, rubber, and petroleum industries showed vacancies in all scientific activities including production, administration, technical sales, and research and development in particular.
Source: Commission on Human Resources and Advanced Training and Bureau of the-Census.
Total U. S. population-1953 census Population, age 14 and over Labor force, age 14 and over Male Female Vital statistics Birth rate, per 1000-1950 Death rate, per 1000-1950 Life expectancy, years-1950 Living college graduate engineers Professionally employed engineers Living college graduate scientists Professionally employed scientistsa Chemists Graduates in sciences, 1953-57, est. total Graduates in sciences who will join scientific worker force Employment of natural scientists and engineers Metal, chemical, and rubber industries All other industries Federal, state, and civil activities Industrial institutions
160,000,000 116,200,000 66,680,000 47,390,000 19,290,000 23.6 9.6 68.4 529,000 500,000 635,000 200,000 100,000 137,000 40,000 340,000 175,000 160,000 75 ,000
a Physical (including chemists), biological, agricultural, and medical. Excludes doctors, dentists, teachers.
granting of deferments continues. Data from Selective Service show that occupational deferments increased to a total of 32,439 in mid-1952. Since then the decline has been steady and rapid, averaging about 700 a month. As of February 1954, it was down to 21,643 (see chart). Less than 11% of these registrants have held deferments of 3 years or more. The total holding occupational deferments constitutes about 0.5% of the total number of men deferred for various reasons; less than 1% of the total number of men in the Armed Forces and 0.0025% of the nonagricultural labor force. Agricultural occupational deferments total over 62,000, 32% of whom have held their deferred status for a t least 3 years. Agricultural deferments constitute lY0 of the agricultural labor force. The greatest proportion of those holding nonagricultural Deferments Declining Rapidly occupational deferments are engineers, the Selective Service System has ascertained. Based on a survey of deferred Industrial occupational deferments will be practically persons, 42.3% of the 23,872 who had occupational defereliminated before the end of 1956 if the present decline in the 1139
INDUSTRIAL AND ENGINEERING CHEMISTRY
1140
OCCUPATIONAL DEFERMENTS" July 1951 to April 1954
By Activity Nonagricultural Source:
Total Aircraft, ships, and ordnance Metals, nonmetals, machinery, equipment, and containers Chemicals and rubber Petroleum, gas, and coal Health and welfare Research and education Other 5
THOUSANDS
Selective Service System, October 1953
Total
Val. 46, No. 6
Other Engineers Professionala
100.0 32.2
100.0 44.0
100.0 15.0
16.4 7.6 5.1 11.2 14.4 13.1
19.4 11.3 6.9 1.9 11.0 5.5
5.5 13.0 5.9 12.8 43.3 4.5
Excluding healing ai t s .
By Industr! Source:
Nonagricultural Selective Service System, October 1953
Engineer Per cent Numof be7 total
Other Professionala Per cent Numof ber total
23,872
10,101
42.3
2,901
12.1
7,678
4,444
57.9
434
5.7
3,907 1,812
1,959 1,145
50.2 63.2
161 377
4.1 20.8
a
1,225 2,676 3,443 3,141
696 190 1,113 554
56.8 7.1 32.4 17.6
171 372 1,255 131
14.0 13.9 36.6 4.2
SOURCE: SELECTIVE SERVICF SYSTEM
Total Total Aircraft, ships, and ordnance Metals, nonmetals, machinery, equipment, and containers Chemicals and rubber Petroleum, gas, and coal Health and welfare Research and education Other a
I l a Classification-Excludes Students and Agricultural Deferments. Excludes Apprentice Deferments After Aug. 1952 Data as of First of Month
Excluding healing arts.
ments as of Oct'ober 31, 1953, were engineers. Of the engineers, 447, were engaged in the production and niaintenance of aircraft, ships, and ordnance. Except for totals for engineers as a group and the healing arts group, all other scientific and professional personnel n-ere lumped into a single group in the survey. S o breakdo.il-ns for chemical engineers or chemists were made. In the chemical and rubber industries! a total of 11-15 engineers were defcrrcd, 11.3Sc of all engineers deferred. The "other" category, which includes chemists, shon-s 377 deferments for t.he cheniical and rubber industries. The total number of personnel deferred in these two indust,ries, including engineers, scientists, technicians, and skilled employees, totaled 1812, or 7.67,of all deferments granted. Selective Service's study showed further that one t,liird of all those deferred (nonagricultural) v,-ere deferred less tlian 1 year, another 317, less than 2 years, one fourth lese than 3 years, and 11% 3 years or more. With deferments for fatherhood eliminated, deferred registrants must serve unless their deferments are continually renewed up to age 35. As noted above, less than 11% drafteligible registrants hare held occupational deferments for 3 or more years. Undergraduate students holding deferments have fared better than those with industrial occupational deferments. The student program started in March 1953. Deferments reached 25,739 a t the end of 1951; they reached a high of 193,625 in mid-1952; as of February 1964 t'hey totaled 173,708. Criteria for deferment are class standing or attainment of an acceptable score on t!ie Selective Service College Qualification Test. Students deferred under this program tot'aling about 1 0 , 000, amount to about 127, of male college enrollments of more than 1,400,000. K i t h those who receive defemeiits zuhject to draft calls
up to age 35 and elimination of most dependency deferments, f e r students are spared from military service. A simple survey by Selective Service confirms that practically all plij-sically fit male students will be classified I-.% on termination of their student deferments. Graduate students are faring poorly. Defernients h a w been limited and many graduate students are being drafted even when training in critical fields or when they lack only ti short period to complete t'lieir graduate work. In February 1953, approximately 45,000 of the 184,000 students holding student deferments were graduate st'udeiits. Present indications are t'liat local boards are tightening u p on graduate deferments. A survey by the Scientific 3Ianpower Commission shon-et1 that 100 graduate students in 34 science depirtments in 19 different institut,es vere drafted before completing their work, even though they held student deferment,s. The survey covered 37, of the science departments in the count'ry. If the same ratio liolcls across t!ie nation, almost 3000 graduate students in science n-ere called for milit'ary service between
Selective Service Pool" Thousands
19541955 1956 Pool, start of year Men reaching age 18V2 Expiring defermentsh Total-men becoming available Men leaving to enter service Pool, end of year a b
Fiscal years 1957 1958
1959
1960
600 800 415 415 255 255
950 1 , 0 3 0 1 , 1 5 0 1 , 3 7 0 1 , 5 1 0 470 500 430 450 460 260 260 _ _270 _ ~ 270 ~280 _ _
670 670
690
710
730
740
780
470 520 610 590 510 600 540 __________ 800 950 1 , 0 3 0 1 , 1 5 0 1 , 3 7 0 1 , 5 1 0 1 , 7 5 0 Projection, based on h:.ined Eervicea totaling 3 million nien Monthly statistics.
INDUSTRIAL AND ENGINEERING CHEMISTRY
June 1954
May and December 1953. The situation has become so acute that in some schools about half of graduate assistantships in chemistry have had to be awarded to foreign students. I n 1951-52 there were 11,721 new graduate students starting their graduate work, according to the National Science Foundation, One year later there were only 8000. There are no indications that military demands are increasing or that industrial needs are lessening. I n mid-1953, for example, Selective Service reached the low point in the supply of registrants, 879,498. By the end of February 1954 the number was up 37% to 1,119,801. Men under age 20 are not being called as they were in May 1953. The Selective Service pool is increasing by about 35,000 men each month. Recent military calls are averaging only 18,000 a month. On March 31, 1954, the Armed Services totaled 3,360,000 men. Although only 1% of the total labor force consists of scientists and engineers, almost 3% of the Armed Services personnel are scientists and engineers. Industrial need for skilled personnel is still acute in many areas, particularly research and development. Government expenditures for scientific research and development, for example, which represent more than half of the nation’s expenditures for these purposes, is scheduled to rise 4% for the year starting July 1 to more than $2 billion. According to some manpower experts, the reason for the decline in deferments is the attitude of local and appeal boards of Selective Service. There are many indications that these boards consider the Selective Service Act to be universal military service. Some industrial concerns have had so little success in obtaining needed industrial deferments that they are ceasing to ask for them. This has been the case, EMC notes, even when critical work is involved. Other sources indicate that some
1141
College Graduates in U. Source:
Commission on Human Resources and Advanced Training.
School Year 1919-20 1929-30 193940 1949-50 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 ..._ __ 1953-54 1954-55 1955-56 1956-57 1957-58 1958-59 1959-60 1960-61 1961-62 1962-63 1963-64 1964-65 1965-66 1966-67 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70
Population (Thousands) Age 22 1887 2203
2292 2399 2324 2365 2771 2218 2103 2191 2180 2166 2226 2309 2287 2379 2519 2794 2909 2762 2695 3224 3618 3455
a Long term normal projections. granted.
First Degrees (Thousands) 48.5 122.5 186.5 266.0 265.0 277.0 273.0 273.0 265.0 283.0 288.0 292.0 307.0 326.0 329.0 350.0 378.0 427.0 454.0 439.0 437.0 532.0 608.0 591.0
Per cent of Poputation Age 22 2.6 5.6 8.1 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.1
Does not coincide with actual degree
companies are losing new personnel rapidly, particularly where their men have had ROTC training. One large firm, for example, reported that it lost half of its new scientists to the Armed Services during 1953. From other sources it has been learned that many companies are hiring good prospects, regardless of their draft liability. Their reason is that most men will return to their former employers after completion of military service. Reserve Situation
~~
GRADUATES IN CHEMISTRY AND CHEMICAL ENGINEERING (First Degree)
6#O## 89@j3,661 66866688 BO 7,699 ChemistryT CHEMICAL ENGINEERING“
1953-54
3 BB6666B6cI 4,700c
1955-56
U. S. Offite of Education American Chemical Society -Survey
Estimates
According to terms of the Armed Forces Reserve Act of 1952, all reservists are under complete control of the Department of Defense. Of concern t o manpower experts is the growing number of young men who enter the reserve after completing 2 years of active service, plus the fact that the Department of Defense lacks adequate machinery to keep track of these men. The Universal Military Training and Service Act and the reserve program following M‘orld K a r I1 resulted in reserve forces (including Kational Guard) of a little over 2,000,000 men. The total is expected to rise steadily until 1960 to a level of more than 5,000,000 men. This figure compares with 673,000 in 1940. Also of concern is the number of students in the ROTC who are subject to call to active duty. One recent limited survey showed that 77% of seniors are either in ROTC or vulnerable to the draft. The percentage of engineering graduates commissioned in the ROTC continues t o rise, the Engineering Manpon er Commission reports. Based on a survey of accredited engineering schools made in 1953, ERIC found that 24% weie scheduled to receive reserve commissions. I n 1952 it was 16.5% and in 1951, 11%. The 1953 figures may be loner, however, as the Department of Defense plans to adjust its program. A related study conducted by the Department of Defense and Bureau of Labor Statistics in January 1952 reflected that 19% of the nation’s scientists and engineers engaged in research and development were members of the reserves of the National Guard. An additional 6% were eligible for induction for Selective Service. The Sppley Committee on RIanpower Resources for 9 a tional Security proposed last December that reservists be
1142
INDUSTRIAL AND ENGINEERING CHEMISTRY
separated into two categories. One nould consist of a large number kept in training and recallable immediately. The remainder mould be selectivelj- recallable or deferable on the basis of the need for their skills in the Brined Forces, industry, or education. The Selective Seivice System has been suggested as the administering agent for this latter group. A mole recent reserve development is compulsory reserve training follo~vingactual service. At present. those completing 2 years of active service aye supposed to take rwervp training for 6 years. thus completing the 8 yeais of service required by lan-. This has not been enforced. Under the new proposal, men would take 6 months of active duty, plus 7 l j ~years of required drills and active training in reserve units, including the Sational Guard. The coiistitutiorial aspects of compukory resei ve training are being studied. Supply at Postwar Ebb
Supply of chemists nil1 hit its low point in the 1953-54 school year, marking the end of a steady decline over the past 5 years. Nost recent estimates by the U. S. Offire of Education and the AXERICAKCHEMICALSOCIETY indicate that 4700 will receive bachelor's degrees in chemistry this yea1 . This compares with 10,794 who receir-ed their degrees in 1949-50 (see chart). A similar decline has taken place mith respect to recipients of master's degrees. Master's degree recipients will total an estimated I150 this year Origiiial estimates of 1150 doctor's degrees are now considered too high because of rapidly increasing inductions. Indications are that the number of bachelors will inciease to 4900 next year and to 6000 in 1955-56, a total somewhat below the 1951-52 level. Estimates for 1953-54 and 1954-55 are somewhat higher than those made a year ago. Industrial needs for additional engineers of all types totdl 35,000 to 40,000, according to the Erigineeri~igAfanpomer
Vol. 46, No. 6
Commission. An addit'ioiial 30,000 new engineers will be needed annually to provide ieplarements and to meet ant,icipated growth jn the profession. However, t'he number of engineering graduates has been dropping steadily froin a peak of 52,000 in 1949-50 to about 19,000 in 1953--54. Possibly of greater significance than the low total number of graduates has been the steady decline in chemists and chemical engineers compared to the total number receiving
Percentage by Field of Study, 1947-53 Source: Based on U. S. Office of Education data
Field of Study
Bachelors' and First Professional Degrees 1947- 1948- 1949- 1950- 1951- 195248 49 50 51 52 53 1.98 2.16 2.51 2.35 2.89 2.90
Agriculture Biological sciences (exceptbiology) 1.67 1.49 1.27 1.23 1.36 1.38 Biology 2.48 2.26 2.10 1.96 2.40 2.29 Education 13.37 13.15 14.23 16.92 18.97 20.18 Engineering (except chemical) 10.08 10.75 11.00 9.84 9.34 7.19 Chemical engineering 1.35 1.15 1.04 0.96 0.86 0.74 Foreignlanguages 1.38 1.14 1.03 1.11 1.33 1.33 Healing a r t s a n d medicalsciences 5.92 5.68 5.58 6.16 7.13 7.91 Law 4.04 3.91 3.30 3.73 3.78 3.72 Physical sciences (except chemis0.58 0.61 0.84 0.84 0.93 0.81 try a n d physics) 2.05 1.95 2.46 2.15 2.72 2.49 Chemistry 0.68 0.66 0.73 Physics 0.78 0.77 0.79 26.57 28.47 29.03 27.15 25.84 25.09 Social sciences 27.06 25.97 24.43 24.39 22.83 24.33 All othersa
Total
100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
By difference-includes
English, Fine .$rts, Geography, Home Economics, Journalism, Library Science, Mathematics, llilitary Science, Philosophy. Psychology, Religion, and mim.
I N D U S T R I A L A N D E N G I N E E R I N G CHEMISTRY
June 1954
college degrees (see table). Data supplied by the Office of Education show that in 1952-53 only 2.69% of all bachelor graduates were granted degrees in chemistry and in chemical engineering. In 1947-48, the figure was 4.07%. The same trend was noted in the entire field of engineering, which showed a decline from 11.43 to 7,93y0 in the same period. A similar trend has been noted with respect to master’s degrees conferred on chemists and chemical engineers. The situation with respect to doctor’s degrees in these fields shows no sharp changes, either up or down. One aspect of the supply situation which is bad and getting progressively worse in that of science teachers. According to an article in the Journal of Teacher Education (March 1954), the number of college and university students completing high school teaching certificate requirements this year has dropped 6.25% from 1953. In science the drop has been much sharper and for the 5-year period 1950-54 is “almost catastrophic.”
All subjects Alathematios General science Riology Chemistry Physics
Teaching Certificates, Percentage Decline 1953-54 1950-54 41.7 6.45 50.6 11.35 9.66 56.3 27.45
Other important factors are that only 43% of men earning certificates actually enter the teaching profession. In the field of chemistry alone, only 24.2% of the males enter teaching. Military service claims 22.2%, while an additional significant number take commercial jobs. As a result, teaching of science and mathematics is often given to instructors in home economics and social science.
ENGINEERING EMPLOYMENT
‘I
!
1143
The decline coincides with rising enrollments. Based on high birth rates in the early 40’s, enrollments will continue to increase, thus aggravating still further the teacher shortage. Demand Steady
The American industry’s annual scramble for the graduating chemists and chemical engineers has continued a t a steady pace for the past several years. The demand, however, appears to be leveling off. Present indications are that there will still be a substantially greater demand than can be met. One qualitative indication of demand for chemists and chemical engineers is statistics of the AniERIcAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY’SEmployment Clearing House (ECH). Attempt to interpret ECH data may sometimes be misleading, because many applicants are employed a t the time of their applications and are seeking new positions involving increased salaries, different type of work, and different geographical location. The total number of applicants is not an accurate criterion of the employment situation. One recent trend noted, however, is that the number of applicants seeking teaching positions has increased markedly. One interpretation of the trend is that industrial demand is slacking. Another is that an increasing number of applicants feel that opportunities in teaching are improving. Since 1950, the number of prospective employers has esceeded the number of prospective applicants a t the clearing house. During the past two national meetings of the AXERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY,it has been noted that employers, in interviewing applicants a t the ECH, appear to be more selective. They are willing to wait until they find the men they want for specific jobs. Another barometer of demand for chemists and chemical engineers is the ratio between situations open and situations wanted as they appear in Chemical and Engineering News. In 1949 and 1950, prior to the Korean War, the number of situations wanted exceeded situations open by a substantial margin. During the last half of 1950, the positions reversed rapidly. Since that time, situations open have been well
Total Industry
1
140,000
and Allied Productr-
a i
Engineering Employment Source: Engineers Joint Councila
Acfual Exbecfed Reauired Engineering Engineering Engi‘neering E mployEmployEmploy m e n f , 1952 ment, 1953 ment, 1953
Industry Total industry & government 116,653 Total industry 99,204 Chemicals & allied products 10,306 Machinery (except electrical) 3,848 Electrical machinery, equipment and supplies 26,844 Transportation equipment 17,578 Professional & scientific instruments 3,456 Railroads 1,782 Misc. services-Consulting firms, research, develop2,495 ment, etc. Public utilities (including operating telephone com14,133 panies) Metal mining 4,915 Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Crude petroleum &, natural gas 7,685 Products of petroleum & coal 6,162 Other industry Total government 17,449
1
1952 ACTUAL
SOURCE: ENGINEERS JOINT COUNCIL
1953 EXPECTED
1953 REQUIRED
1
-
131,778 114,708 12,229 4,661
137,885 120,071 12,986 4,893
31,505 21,030
33,424 22,218
4,842 1,883
5,007 1,917
2,842
2,902
14,628
15,005
5,137
5,306
8,856
9,108
7,095
7,305
17,070
17,814
a Extrapolated figures. Based on survey of employers (industry and government) of 25 yo of total engineers in U. S.
1144
INDUSTRIAL AND ENGINEERING CHEMISTRY
Vol. 46, No. 6
The existence of a large pool of persons of above average intelligence who do not go beyond high school has been established through Army General Classification Tests (AGCT). These tests show that the higher the educational attainment, the higher the intelligence level. Average AGCT test scores are as follows : Total population-100 High school graduates---llO College entrants-115 College graduates-121 Ninety per cent of college graduates score above 100, 50Q/cp 121 or higher; and 12%, 140 or higher. For various reasons, a significant number of most capable young people are not getting the education that their capacity seems to warrant. Of the top 2% of high school graduates, in terms both of high intelligence and high grades, only two thirds graduate from college. Of the top quarter of high school graduates, again in terms of intelligence and grades, only 42% graduate from college. Manpower experts emphasize the desirability of identifying these persons of high mental ability and giving them an opportunity to reach their greatest potential. This applies particularly to those persons with great mechanical ability or inventiveness who could contribute to technological or industrial development.
above situations ndnted. One significant trend rioted in mid1953, hon ever, was that bituations open and situations wanted dropped sharply. In the latter part of 1953, both took an upward swing which is still going on. Demand for engineers by both Government and industry n as approximately the same in 1953 as in 1952, the Engineering LlanpoiTer Commission has reported. This conclusion was based on a surrey of industries and government agencies employing about 125.000 engineers, 267, of the total number in the United States. dlthough signs of a softening in demand mere noted, the need was substantially greater than the number of graduates, who total 21,612. N e w Demand Study
The chemical, rubber, and petroleum industiies were still encountering difficulty in locating chemists, chemical engineers, and other scientists and engineers in 1953, according to a special study by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The pilot study, sponsored by the Air Force, T V ~ Smade in 1953 to determine the factors affecting industrial demand for chemists and chemical engineers. Three industries were coveredchemicals, petroleum, and rubber-which together employ nearly half of all chemists and about three fifths of all chemical engineers in the United States. The 132 companies surT-eyed employed about 18,000 chemists and more than 14,000 chemical engineers, or about one fifth of all chemists and nearly one third of all chemical engineers. Sales of reporting companies totaled over $20 billion in 1952, more than two fifths of the total sales of the chemicals, petroleum, and rubber industries. The study showed that one out of erery 12 employees in chemical companies is an engineer or scientist. The figure for petroleum industry is one out of 15, while that for rubber is one out of 40. I n recent years employment of scientists has risen sharply in chemicals and petroleum and to a much less extent in rubber. Between 1948 and 1953, for example, chemical companies increased employment of chemists 25%, chemical engineers 45yG,and other scientists and engineers
627,. Corresponding figures for petroleum are 26, 40, and 44'37,. I n rubber the figures are 6, 26, and 46%. This expansion has &ended to all types of scientific activit,y including research and development, production, administrat'ion, and technical sales. The companies surT-eyed indicated that t'he increases would have been still greater, particularly in research and development, had there not been shortages of manpower. In 1953, xvhen the survey was conducted, surveyed conipanies Ivere asked to indicate their planned expansion of manpower in 1953. Chemical companies indicated that they planned a 7% increase in chemists and 127, in chemical engineers-great'er than in several prior years. A similar increase is indicated for rubber. In petroleum expansion in 1953 is less than in earlier years. Keed for chemists and chemical engineers to fill vacancies created by death, rebirement, or t,ransfers to other firms is about 5%. This accounts for more than half of the total hiring of chemists and cheniical engineers by petroleum companies and 30 to 30% of hiring planned b ~chemical and rubber companies. The surveyed companies expected to meet io% of their needs for chemists and 80% of their needs for chemical engineers from the 1953 graduating class. Estimated need for 1953 chemistry graduates is approximately equal to the number of 1952 graduates hired. The estimated need for 1953 chemical engineering graduates \vas nearly one third greater than the number hired in 1952. Because the total number of chemical engineering graduates dropped sharply between these two years, the proportion of t,hesegraduates needed in 1953 is two thirds great'er than the proportion actually hired in 1952. For graduates in chemistr~7 the proport,ion is approximately the same in both years. I n the last half of 1953 all petroleum companies surveyed and half of the chemical and rubber companies had vacancies for chemists and chemical engineers difficult to fill. One third of the companies reported greater difficult'>-in recruiting needed chemists and cheinical engineers in 1953 than in 1952.
