M a n p o w e r Trends in the Chemical Profession
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J O H N H. LUX and LEROY S. M O O D Y , Genera/ Electric Co., PittsField, Mass.
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The i m p e n d i n g crisis in technical m a n p o w e r is no longer a p r o b l e m for the f u t u r e — t h e time for action is n o w !
Chemical M a n p o w e r CHEMICAL ENGINEERS
OCCUPATIONAL STATUS
NUMBER OF FIELDS * INDUSTRY STATUS
CHEMISTS
OCCUPATIONAL STATUS
NUMBER OF FIELDS
INDUSTRY STATUS
T O T A L — CHEMICAL ENGINEERS AND CHEMISTS
Other
OCCUPATIONAL STATUS
NUMBER OF FIELDS
INDUSTRY STATUS
Figure 1 5330
CHEMICAL
V _ J N E of the chief concerns of members of the chexriical profession a n d those de pendent upon it is the impending man power crisis. W i t h o u t a d o u b t the chem ists a n d chemical engineers have been major contributors to our present and ever-growing standard of living a n d to the operation of the complicated tech nical economy in which w e now live. It is widely recognized that the survival of the U n i t e d States or of any country in this world-wide struggle for supremacy and p o w e r is more a n d more dependent upon the superiority of t h e nation's tech nological skill. A r e c e n t statement ( I ) by M. H. Trytten, chairman of t h e Selective Service Scientific Advisory Committee, w a r n e d that t h e Soviet Union had 1516 technical institutes i n 1948 (not counting medical, pedagogical, and other specialized insti tutions). In 1939 they h a d 600,000 stu dents, while in 1950 it was expected that 1.7 million would b e trained there. In addition t h e Soviet Army is expected to number 1 2 million by 1954. T h e sig nificance of these figures is appalling. It is obvious that our only opportunity for survival lies in our scientific advancement and leadership, a n d now t h e Soviet Union is training many times t h e number of sci entists a n d engineers as t h e United States. T h e shortage of chemists and chemical engineers predicted for t h e next few years is d u e to several factors, one of t h e fore most of which is the rapid growth of the chemical industry. Chemical and allied products have grown from 4.3 billion in 1938 to 1 7 billion in 1950, about a four fold increase. A second major reason for shortages is the decline in enrollments of scientists, not only in numbers, b u t on a percentage of total enrollments. I n other words there is a trend t o less technical fields in education. While no figures are available on chemists and chemical engi neers specifically, d a t a o n all engineers for 1950 indicate that t h e percentage of high school graduates enrolling in engi neering d r o p p e d from 5.6% to 2 . 2 % of the total entering students. Over and AND
ENGINEERING
NEWS
above this t h e n u m b e r of entrants to col leges is lowered because we are in the period of s h o r t a g e of high school gradu ates due to the low birth rate of the 30's depression. It will b e a p p a r e n t from figures pre sented l a t e r that even if w e were able to maintain t h e average growth of the pro fession o v e r t h e past 10 years, the stu pendous drain of the next few years would still find us lacking in manpower. Super impose the present emergency which has caused large n u m b e r s of chemists and chemical engineers to be needed for de fense efforts. T h e supply is further re duced b e c a u s e many students feel that there is no reason to continue their edu cation at t h e present time, and you see that a m a n p o w e r crisis is in the making. At the p r e s e n t w e are primarily con cerned w i t h the effect of these factors on the chemical industry, chemists, and chem ical engineers. D u r i n g the past decade, chemistry lias affected practically every industry, a n d the chemical industry has absorbed m a n y older industries. At the present time over one sixth of our total gross national p r o d u c t is in chemical proc ess industries, a n d this group is now much larger t h a n most statistics would have us believe. T h e tight supply of chemists and chemical engineers for this rapidly mushrooming group of manufacturing en terprises gives us a long-range picture which is n o t too pleasant. T h e r e will be an extreme shortage of scientists and this may actually k e e p us from maintaining the present g r o w t h of the industry. Since the chemical i n d u s t r y is growing at a much more rapid rate than many other segments of our economy, the shortage of trained personnel m a y b e a much greater handicap to our industrial growth than those short ages in o t h e r .branches of the industry. Perhaps t h e easiest way to forecast the need for chemists and chemical engineers in the chemical industry is to examine the industry itself a n d see in w h a t character istic it differs from other enterprises. T h e D o m i n a n t Industry The chemical industry is rapidly be coming t h e d o m i n a n t industry of the United States. It is taking over the posi tion of leadership formerly h e l d b y the iron and steel industry early in t h e century and later by t h e automobile industry. Here is a n industry with diversification unknown i n o t h e r fields. W e can include as chemical process industries, along with the manufacture of organic and inorganic chemicals, the food process industry and all its ramifications, textile manufacturing, the manufacture of cement, lime, coalgas, coal tar, explosives, fertilizers, glass and related materials, leather, metallurgi cal products, fats, oils, greases, petroleum products, p a i n t s and varnishes, drugs and pharmaceuticals, plastics, rubbers, soaps, sugar, d y e s , insecticides, and myriad other products. In contrast to industries where at least 7 5 % of t h e industry production is in the hands of t h e top three or four firms, the chemical i n d u s t r y has only a b o u t 1 5 % of its total p r o d u c t i o n in t h e h a n d s of the V O L U M E
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Figure 2 top four firms. ( T a b l e I ) (11). Not only is the industry more diversified but it is growing at a much more rapid r a t e : W h i l e the 1949 index for all manufacturing in dustries was 176 based on 1935—1939 av erage of .100, the F e d e r a l Reserve Board index of industrial chemical production leaped from 120 in 1939 to 415 in 1949. Table I. Concentration of Business FRACTION OF BUSINKSS HELD BY FOL H LEADING F I R M S
Aluminum (by 3 firms) 100% Small arms and ammunition 99.9 Aircraft propellers 98.0 Telephone and telegraph equipment 95.7 Aluminum rolling and drawing 94.2 Locomotives 90.7 Cigarettes 90.4 Petroleum and coal products 88.2 Flat glass 88.1 Matches 82.7 Soap and glycerol 79.0 Tires and tubes 76.6 Chemicals and allied products 16.0
In spite of this great d e m a n d for chemi cal products we find that the price of chemicals in general has risen m u c h less than the average of all industrial products. If we compare the price indexes for c h e m i cals with those of all industry w e will see that the chemical and allied products' wholesale price indexes rose from 76.0 in 1939 to only 118.6 in 1949 while the com bined wholesale price index of all i n d u s tries moved from 77.1 to 155.0. This means that in terms of real value t h e in crease in chemical and allied p r o d u c t s was 3.9 fold as compared to 1.9 fold in all manufacturing industries. M u c h o f the growth stability of this industry is d u e to the fact that m a n y chemical companies
DECEMBER
17,
1951
p u t as much as 5 r A of the total sales into research as compared to about 1.6'γ for t h e average of all industries. This m e a n s that changes come more often in t h e chemical industry than in most other in dustries. The research a n d development work behind these changes is expensive and time consuming. The average devel o p m e n t time for a new chemical process o r n e w chemical product is generally of t h e order of 7 to 10 years. In spite of t h e long development period, m a n y chemical processes and products b e c o m e obsolete in a relatively short time. I n fact t h e industry moves so fast at times that some products and processes arc obsolete before t h e new plants constructed can start o p eration. Similarly changes in one c h e m i cal area often affect raw material situa tions in many other areas. T h e s e facts make it absolutely necessary t h a t research a n d development activities be m a i n t a i n e d a t as high a level as possible. T h e high rate of introduction of a n e w p r o d u c t means t h e chemical industry has never really suffered any violent cyclic c h a n g e s . In general a dollar invested i n t h e chemical industry produces $1.00 to $1.50 in sales p e r year. Like most raw m a t e rials, chemical products find continuous markets a n d usually a high percentage of t h e sales of the chemical i n d u s t r y are m a d e directly to t h e consumer. W e find that chemicals are sold primarily o n t h e basis of use, that is, by virtue of certain properties t h e material has and since competition is high many sales are m a d e o n t h e basis of service, m u c h of which is of a technical nature. Another important feature of t h e in5331
dustry is the tremendous production per worker. The production of a worker is now about $25,000 a n d the average in vestment per worker is estimated at $14,000. T h e s e figures will rise to $40,000 and $25,000, respectively, by 1955. Recently a $16 million plant was constructed to be operated by only 3 0 employees for the complete 24 hours' operation. Technical M a n p o w e r the Backbone Those close to the chemical industryhave little d o u b t t h a t the tremendous growth and accomplishments are due pri marily to the abilities and contributions oi chemists and chemical engineers, many of whose contributions have gone u n a p preciated and unnoticed b y m a n a g e m e n t . In the past few years, however, t h e situa tion is changing because more a n d more chemists and chemical engineers are train ing themselves for administrative and man agerial duties in the profession. As a result many of the minds w h o have done the creating and constructing are n o w the minds w h o do the executive and admin istrative work. Organizations that have neglected this training of technical men for management activities and the financ ing of research and development pro grams have f o u n d themselves overtaken or have stagnated in spite of t h e rapid growth oi the industry. With this picture of the chemical in dustry in front of us let us examine the m a n p o w e r of the chemical world. Chem istry is a profession a n d science which dates back to the middle ages. Previous to 1900 it was essentially inorganic in its industrial phases, w i t h t h e emphasis changing to organic in the early twenties.
J
OHN H . L u x , m a n a g e r of the new p r o d u c t devel opment laboratory of the chemical division, G e n e r a l E l e c t r i c C o . , received his education at P u r d u e , from w h i c h he took a doctorate i n chemi cal engineering in 1942. His varied c a r e e r has in cluded positions with Carbide and Carbon, the Neville C o . , a n d W i t c o Chemical C o . , a s well as a business of his own. His h o b b i e s a r e skiing, golf, a n d bowling.
Τ EBOY S. MOODY i s supervisor of p r o d u c t cvalua-*-' tion for t h e G E n e w product d e v e l o p m e n t laboratory. E x c e p t for o n e year on t h e M a n h a t t a n Project during W o r l d W a r I I , his professional career has b e e n spent developing n e w products and markets at the General Electric Co. He has degrees from W e s l e y a n University a n d the U n i versity of W i s c o n s i n .
T h e major changes m a y b e shown by t h e different market areas encompassed; b e ginning with explosives and thermosetting resins before W o r l d W a r I and going through dyes, solvents, thermoplastic rosins, rayon, fibers, d e t e r g e n t s , a n d syn thetic rubber. In most instances the phases a r e dependent u p o n t h e p r e c e d i n g phases for technical a c c o m p l i s h m e n t s a n d r a w materials. This means that the industry is becoming more and m o r e complex a n d h a s a n ever increasing n e e d for more highly trained a n d specialized personnel. It was this need which precipitated chemi cal engineering, one o f the youngest p r o
Figure 3
Utilization of Chemical Personnel (BASED ON DOLLARS OF CHEMICAL AND ALLIED PRODUCTS)
5332
C H EMIC AL
fessions. While there w e r e approximately 45,000 chemists in the U . S. in 1934, t h e number of chemical engineers n u m b e r e d only 20O0. I n that year a b o u t 2 0 % of t h e chemists were of P h . D . level while only 37r ot the chemical engineers were t a k ing the P h . D . degree. By 1946 this n u m ber in chemical engineering h a d risen to 5.7% as compared to 1.2% for civil e n g i neers, 2 . 1 % of electrical engineers, a n d 1.8% of mechanical engineers ( 3 ) . In general, about three out of five c h e m ists are employed in the process industries while about four out of five c h e m i c a l e n g i neers a r e similarly employed- A typical breakdown of the distribution of chemists and chemical engineers by occupational and industrial status is given in F i g u r e 1. I t will b e noticed that 5 7 % of all chemists are employed at research a n d development or testing a n d analyzing jobs. This is roughly equivalent to the 4 4 % of chemical engineers similarly e m p l o y e d . The major differences b e t w e e n c h e m i c a l engineers and chemists in o c c u p a t i o n a l status a r c in the percentage e m p l o y e d in administration and m a n a g e m e n t : c h e m i c a l engineers 3 0 % as against 1 5 % for c h e m ists. One important difference in industrial r ta tus r e m a i n s to be n o t e d : t h e p e r c e n t a g e of chemists in g o v e r n m e n t e m p l o y m e n t is far greater ( 19% ) than is t h e p e r c e n t a g e of chemical engineers ( 6% ) . T h e e n g i neers a r e overwhelming i n industry ( 8 3 % ) while the chemists a r e less decisively so ( 6 3 9 6 ) . W i t h this -as t h e b a c k g r o u n d it was d e cided t o relate t h e n e e d s of chemists a n d chemical engineers to t h e p r o d u c t i o n of chemicals o r to the p r o d u c t i o n of t h e chemical a n d allied p r o d u c t s i n d u s t r y . T h e first step in this picture w a s t h e fore casting of t h e levels of p r o d u c t i o n of t h e chemical and allied p r o d u c t industries since 1939 and f o r w a r d to 1955. T h e s e figures were taken from t h e Survey of Cur rent Business publications of the D e p a r t ment of Commerce ( 8, 9 ) from 1939 u n t i l
AND
ENGINEERING
NEWS
U t i l i z a t i o n off C h e m i c a l
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1950. The 1951 figure is based on an estimate based on the activity during the first five months of 1951 plus the use of the predicted gross national product figure for 1951. Forecasts for years after 1951 are also based on relationship of the in dustry to gross national product predic tions. These forecasts assumed that the mobilization will continue as planned, the military activity on the level of a Koreantype war will continue and that no full scale war will break out. We also checked the figures taken from estimates we made of investments by the chemical process industries over the next few years; for example, the chemical process industries invested $4.3 billion in 1950 and expect to invest about $5.4 billion in new facili ties in 1951. Over one half each of these figures is directly in chemical and allied products industries. In general, multipli cation of these figures by about 1.25 gives the approximate dollar volume available in sales from this investment. Incidentally, in 1951 this $5.4 billion in capital expendi ture represents about one fifth the total industrial investment during the year. These investments will probably not be producing at this rate until well into 1-952, so that they give 1952 figures a large movement over 1951. The specific estimate of the chemical and allied prod ucts industry is given in Table II and Figure 3. In order to compare these figures on another basis an index taking physical volume into account for the chemical and allied products industries was also used —The Federal Reserve Board Index. How ever, the use of such figures as are avail able give a picture weighted with low cost, low growth items as sulfuric acid, lime, fertilizers, etc., so that it is not pos sible to obtain fair figures on the physical volume index. Ewell (4) has recognized this same difficulty and has devised his own chemical index. However we feel that the use of the FRB index is sufficient to illustrate the trends. After we had acquired the necessary financial data for estimating the needs of the country, our next problem was to as certain the number of chemists and chemi cal engineers employed over the years
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The only major deviation from this line on the low side was during World W a r II where t h e r e was a lowering in the number of graduates for a few years. It appears that the increase in productivity over the years p e r chemical engineer and the increasing n u m b e r of chemical engineers per employee (or dollar volume) has been offset about equally by die amount of inflation occurring. In order to check these needs against a physical volume standard we have plotted the ratio of chemists and chemical engineers to the Federal Reserve Board index which is relatively constant a r o u n d 4, showing the output p e r chemist is about the same, while the ratio of chemical engineers p e r unit is markedly increasing from around 0.9 to about 2. On this basis the shortage of chemists for industry in 1955 should not be greater than 10,000 men (SrA of the total) a n d relatively close to an a d e q u a t e supply. However, it should be e m p h a sized that t h e figures for the highly trained chemists discussed above show that we are barely holding our o w n in producing men of the caliber required to continue the lead in chemical research. Some small percentage of the total chemists represent those m e n most desirable to industry. W i t h t h e slow rate of growth of chemists in general and the rapid expansion of industry, it is a p p a r e n t that there will be a drastic shortage of highly qualified top grade m e n even t h o u g h o u r supply of chemists in general will b e reasonable. O n the other hand it is obvious t h a t there will be a t r e m e n d o u s , in fact a n alarming,
Shortage of Chemists and Chemical E n g i n e e r s Estimated from FRBE
Averag Deficit
Actual
106.000 II3.00O I2£.00O I29-.0OO liS.OGO
3.000 4r00Q S,0OO S r 00O S T 00O
51,000 54,000 56.000 57.000 58.000
C H E M I C A L
AND
Chemical Engineers Estimated Estimated from from FRBi C and A P 57,000 70,000 77,000 82,000 84,000
63,000 70,000 84,000 97,000 115,000
ENGINEERING
Average Deficit 9,000 16,000 25,000 33,000 41,000
NEWS
shortage of chemical engineers in 1954 a n d 1955 b a s e d on .these statistics. It is conceivable t h a t this shortage in industryalone m i g h t r u n as high as 25,000 chemic a l engineers although a more conservative figure is expected to be about 15,000, about 2 5 % of our total supply. From the slope of t h e trend line plotted through t h e curve showing t h e n u m b e r of chemic a l engineers that h a v e been available over the past years it is apparent that there would h a v e been a shortage of a p proximately 12,000 chemical engineers even if no unusual d e m a n d s w e r e forecast. It is also a p p a r e n t that t h e percentage of total chemical engineers having t h e Ph.D. degree is decreasing a t a faster r a t e than t h a t of chemists holding a P h . D . d e g r e e so t h a t the shortage of highly t r a i n e d chemical engineers will be so great in 1955 t h a t there will be essentially none available for hiring. These estiniâtes of shortages may be considered as maximum figures since w e expect that t h e r e is a b o u t 49r of t h e profession not practicing in their line of training. This m e a n s that about 5000 chemists a n d about 25O0 chemical engineers mayb e induced to return to the profession in times of dire need because of the financial opportunities. It is conceivable that some chemists may perform engineering duties a s engineers a r e n o t available, b u t this fact is offset many times by the use of m a n y chemical engineers as chemists. In view of t h e critical n e e d for chemical engineers it may- be t h a t o u r needs in other scientific and engineering fields may be w i d e l y underestimated at this time. E m p l o y m e n t Leveling Off An analysis of t h e total employees in t h e chemical and allied products industries shown i n Figure 6 reveals that the total number of employees is leveling off a t helow 800,000 employees (estimated for 1 9 5 5 ) . This m e a n s that there has been no essential c h a n g e in t h e total numb e r of employees since about 1944. T h e ratio of chemists t o total employees has been relatively constant which probably m e a n s that requirements of production workers h a s been expanding at about the same rate at -which the industry has been able to a d d chemists. However, the ratio o f chemical engineers per employee has risen significantly. T h e difference between these two trends probably represents the difference in the ages of t h e professions since chemistry, being t h e elder, has carried the industry t o its present position w h i l e the r a p i d increase of chemical engineers p e r employee suggests that new g r o w t h will b e based more upon the contributions of t h e engineers rather than on the contributions of the chemist. This suggests that increased productivity is coming from an increase in engineering skills r a t h e r t h a n a n increase in t h e fundamental knowledge contributed by t h e chemist.
Productivity United States v s . G r e a t Britain INDEX (Common Level in 1889=1)
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Figure 7 per employee has increased from $10,000 in 1939 to $25,000 in 1950. It is estimated that the value will he close to $40,000 in 1955. These facts are shown in Figure 6. This would be about 2.5 times the 1939 figure on a physical volume basis. This means that if our estimate of $30 billion for the chemical a n d allied products industries in 1955 is correct w e will need only 750.000 employees a n d t h e industry figure now is about 720,000. Production per employee in some of the new plants may easily run $100,000 or above. In the long term this means that the chemical industry will provide a substantially higher standard of living for its employees than others with lower dollars Figure 8
Technical Graduates NUMBER PER 10,000 POPULATION
D E C E M B E R
of production per employee. It is also apparent that the projected expansions over the next few years a r e going to require an enormous amount of investment capital. However, the most restricting factor will be t h e lack of engineers, P h . D . trained personnel, and not of nonprofessional employees o r of capital. All the previous figures have been concerned primarily with the chemical personnel in industry. An important segment of this technical group is t h e one involved in education. Present estimates indicate that the total n u m b e r engaged in teaching is about 6r/c of the total •chemists ( a b o u t 6 0 0 0 ) , 17c of the total chemical engineers ( a b o u t 6 0 0 ) . These are merely o r d e r of m a g n i t u d e figures which indicate that changes in employment figures in this category cannot seriously change t h e n u m b e r s needed for the government o r industry. T h e importance of this group in its present field far outweighs t h e importance indicated by the numbers. W i t h o u t a d o u b t this is one of the most n e e d e d portions of all the chemical groups if w e a r e ever to have the possibility of returning to a period of normalcy as far as supply of chemically trained people is concerned. Looking at the other side of the picture this is one area w h e r e there is not a prodigious demand for manpower even if enrollments approach the desired level. Government N e e d s Up to this point we have been discussing requirements w h i c h are measurable to some extent. W e are n o w ready t o consider needs of ^the Government. In 1943, a wartime year, w e find t h a t about 14,000 chemists (approximately 2 0 % ) a n d 1800 (or approximately 79c) of t h e chemical engineers were employed in government
T h e c h e m i c a l industry has long been recognized a s a h i g h capital low labor type of business a n d this factor is being accentuated. This is shown by the fact that the dollar value of product produced V O L U M E
1900
17,
1 9 5 1
5335
lag necessary for efficient utilization of this manpower would further decrease the possibility of any successful projects with in the time period desired- Furthermore we feel that in order to exploit the re sults of these inquiries it might require an additional expenditure of u p to $100 bil lion in plants and facilities. If the Government is really serious about mobilizing our scientific manpower to the Table IV. Estimated Professional Chemi extent indicated, there is no value in the cal Personnel in Government Work forecasting of manpower needs in any Chemical area as the shortage of scientists and engi Year Chemists Engineers neers will be inconceivable. For the pres 1943 14.000 1800 1945 15,000 2000 ent we must assume that the Government 1947 12,000 1600 will not be able to use adequately more 1948 15,000 2400 1950 16,000 2600 than 10,000 (15 to 20%) chemical engi 1951 24,000 5200 neers in all branches even by 1955, and 1952 30.000 7500 1943 1950 estimates based on Bureau of Labor not more than 36,000 chemists ( 25 to Statistics. 309c). This means that the needs in this 1951 1952 based on budget statistics ( 6 ) . area would increase the needs about 4000 The 1950 and 1951 figures were cal and 10,000 respectively in 1955 over the culated from the figures for the research normal trends of 10% of -chemical engi and development budget of the Federal neers and 20-7r of chemists needed in gov Government. .For the year beginning July ernment work. This is our best estimate 1951, this figure is $2.4 billion of which eliminating any double counting which about $1.7 billion is for military research might be due to people in private indus and development ( 2 ) . Fiscal budgets for try working on government projects or 1950 were roughly 50% of 1951 and 1952 contracts. expenditures will be «about 309r over 1951. Another estimate of 1951 may be ob Base Estimates of Future Needs tained by taking a government estimate We can go into further detail on many that the budget will be 4r/r chemical, or of our estimates, but we feel in view of about $96 million. This $96 million should the large numbers obtained thus far, the be lowered by 25% to correct for the conclusion is obvious. The supply of share going into the construction of facili chemists and chemical engineers should ties and indirect cost, and then propor not be based upon the need of chemists tioned into about three parts chemistry to and chemical engineers based upon to one of chemical engineering (the ratio of day's standards. Rather, every effort chemists to chemical engineers). Using should be made to educate as large a the resulting figure of $54 million for quantity of each as possible, so that each chemists and $18 million and the approxi can contribute to new discoveries which mation of $25,000 per research and devel will create new businesses such as syn opment worker we obtain about 24,000 thetic rubber, synthetic fibers, new insec chemists and 7200 for chemical engineers ticides, and antibiotics in the future. The as an estimate for the needs in 1952. This industrial revolution which has changed is not too different from the figures of our 19th century agricultural society to an 30,000 and 7500 obtained in our previous urban, integrated, industrial one contin estimate. The difference in chemists of ues. The simple industries such as tex 6000 is within reason if we add those em tiles and iron dominated the early pat ployed by the state and local political tern. In the middle era steel and auto units to those hired by the Federal Gov mobiles and constmction were in first ernment. We would anticipate that the place. Today electronics and chemistry government needs should grow less rapidly are in first place. If 150,000 technical after 1952 if the total military budget personnel have developed and operated estimates at the present time were any today's $20 billion chemical business, it is criteria. only reasonable that an ever growing; group As an indication of what could happen can do even more in the future. in government circles we should consider It is apparent that in order to close the the statement of Eric A. Walker, Execu gap, industry will be forced to utilize tive Secretary of the Research and Devel lesser trained manpower under the direc opment Board: "The expanding programs tion of skilled individuals. To correct this planned by the Department of Defense situation it is advocated that a real sales and the Atomic Energy Commission will appeal be made by Government, univer probably absorb something like three sities, and industrv, to parents and to the fourths of the national supply of tech young men of college age to show them nically trained personnel." (10) If this the opportunities in the professions, par statement is true then the Government ticularly chemical engineering and ad must be prepared to spend many billions vanced degrees. of dollars for research and development In addition industry has two other ma programs. Such figures appear to picture jor obligations. The first and foremost is a situation that is impossible at the present the necessity to convince the Government time because both industry and educa that it should give proper recognition to tional institutions would be completely the importance of the chemically trained stripped of scientific personnel. The time personnel in the economic and military
work. While no specific figures are avail able for the years 1944—47, we can esti mate that these numbers increased to about 15,000 and 2000 by 1945 and then tapered off to 12,000 and 1600 in 1947. Beginning in 1947 an upward trend was established which is now mushrooming. Estimates are as follows:
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life of the country. The Government should also guarantee the men now in school the opportunity to graduate. Evalu ation of the facts demands that all quali fied men be allowed to practice their profession either for private industry or for the Government. The second obligation of industry is to utilize its scientific talent as effectively as possible. This may mean that some com panies should reorganize their technical staffs to gain greater efficiency. Every company has a duty to study its own use of scientists to determine if that maximum effectiveness is obtained. In view of the impending shortage, in dustry must assume these responsibilities now and must ?.ct for the good of the country as a whole, as well as for its own future. We should make it clear to every one that the needs of which we speak are really base needs and that any further technical manpower we can add will serve to increase not only our chances of sur vival but ultimately our standard of living. It is clear that the future can be just as glowing as we desire to make it provid ing we supply the needed technical skill. Others have combined these factors to gether previously ( 7 ). Figures 7 and 8 show the relative differences in increase of productivity between the United King dom and United States, and the corre sponding number of technical graduates. The stirring implications of such forthcom "vg developments as atomic power, rockets, fundamental life processes, electronic computators, weather control, point to new patterns of civilization not only for our country but for the world. They await jnly the same concentrated effort and technological skill which conquered nuclear fission for the atomic bomb manu facture. We must place our desires for more scientists higher than our needs so that the above goals can be attained not in the next century, but within the time of many of us. Literature Cited 1. C H E M .
2. 3.
4. 5.
6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
11.
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29,
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(1951). Ibid, 29, 2118 (1951). "Employment Outlook for Engineers," Bureau of Labor Statistics Bulletin No. 968, p. 36, U. S. Department of Labor, 1949. Ε well, R. H. Chem. Ind. 67, 726-30 (1950). "Factors Affecting Earnings in Chem istry and Chemical Engineering," Bureau of Labor Statistics Bulletin No. 881, U. S. Department of La bor, 1946. Shapeley, Willis. Research and De velopment Board, Department of Defense, personal communications. Smith, Sir Ewart, American Scientist 39, 274-86 (1951). Survey of Current Business, 1949 Sta tistical Supplement, pp. 8—29, U. S. Department of Commerce. Ibid., 31, SI to S l l (Jan. 1951). Walker, Eric Α., Research and Devel opment Board, Department of De fense, "The Importance of Research and Development in the National Defense Program" ( address ). Wall Street Journal, Dec. 5, 1950.
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