MARKETS
A Forward Look to 1 9 6 0 C M R A meeting to unveil predictions of u p w a r d trends of production in the chemical process industries \S[/HITHER chemical markets? Taking ^ ^ a cautious glance into its crystal ball, the Chemical Market Research Association on May 19 will devote a day of its New York meeting to predicting trends for the next five years. The meeting, marking t h e 15th anniversary of CMRA, is timed to serve as a highlight of Chemical Progress Week. Discussions planned will cover the economic outlook for a gamut of products from inorganic chemicals to synthetic fibers. In general, the oudook promises a half-decade of progress upward and onward for chemical production and sales. This cheering view is supported by at least one recent survey which suggests that by 1960 total national output will be well above $400 billion and that U. S. population will b e pushing 180 million, with employment at nearly 7 0 million workers. Forecasting for specific chemical process industries, of course, is a hazardous business. Such interconnected factors as research, n e w product development, changing product mix, and obsolescence of older product lines can quickly change a market position and make neat statistical projections worthless in the long run. Expanded capacity and increasing competition are problems to be reckoned with. But e v e n though a look into the future may be filled with inaccuracies, it still serves a s the best available clue to what may come to pass. Organic Projections. Production of organic chemicals—those classified by the Federal Reserve Board as "miscellaneous organic chemicals"—should by 1960 be at m o r e than twice the rate of 1947-49. So indicates a projection worked out by Monsanto's Shea Smith. Looking at future trends, Smith will tell the CMRA conclave that production of such fast-growing products as styrene, phthalic anhydride, and phenol will continue t o expand, though perhaps at a less rapid rate, during the next five years. Coal hydrogénation may have far-reaching effects, as cyclic intermediates now of little commercial significance become important chemical raw materials. Rates of growth of many other organic products, including lakes and toners, flavor and perfume materials, rubber processing chemicals, plasticizers, and oil and gasoline additives, should show a 2022
strong upward trend, Smith believes. Gordon Brown of Bakélite will cast a forward glance at plastics developments for CMRA next week. He sees greatest proportionate increases in store for silicones and fluorocarbon
plastics, though he is certain that, following the history of past patterns, the future will witness the introduction of many new types of plastics which will vie for a market position. T h e competitive situation in the industry may get tougher. Polyethylene, for instance, may soon be in a position of surplus capacity that might well remain throughout the next five years. And as a group, plastics molders and fabricators have been traditionally overextended capacity-wise.
THE COVER.
Pioneer in Chemical Marketing HEN the Chemical Market Re-
w search Association gets together in N e w York for its 15th anniversary meeting next week, it will take time out from its busy program to confer honors upon James G. Park of Enjay Co. (Standard O i l ) . Park, one of CMRA's original organizers, will be awarded a plaque at the association's luncheon on May 19 "for exemplary work in chemical market research." Jim Park is a pioneer in chemical market research in every sense of the word. H e probably saw a bright future for chemical market study when he assisted in the development and production of alcohols for Standard Oil Co. ( N . J.) a job that led to the formation of the Standard Alcohol Co., which was later to become Enjay. It would b e difficult to find anyone who has spoken and written more on the market research phase of the chemical industry than Park. His interest in marketing went beyond just alcohol. Park was active in the chemical market research group that was started back in 1939 as an informal organization of chemical market research executives and economists. When it was formally organized in June of 1945 as the Chemical Market Research Association, he was made its first president. From an initial 20 to 30 members located for the most part in the N e w York area, the organization has grown to a present membership of about 350, scattered throughout the country and representing all major segments of the chemical industry. A wide majority of the members are trained chemists or chemical engineers.
From its beginnings, CMRA h a s sponsored gatherings to provide a meeting ground for members t o discuss their professional problems. Four meetings each year are n o w held, with attendance averaging about 2 0 0 to 300. The association has sponsored, also, one-semester courses in market research for chemists and chemical engineering at Case and the University of Delaware. It has collaborated, too, with statistical groups i n Government on methods for collecting and presenting chemical statistics. Just what is chemical market r e search, with which CMRA busies itself? The association has the best explanation w e have seen so far. "It is the study/' it says, "of chemicalconsuming markets with the immediate purpose of developing and i n terpreting factual information o n which managements can base sound decisions." CMRA today stresses what it calls the newer types of i n dustrial market research, based o n the fact that chemicals have their best market in the chemical industry. This is the field of chemical activity in which Park has labored w i t h more than ordinary distinction a n d success. World War I interrupted his studies at Brooklyn Poly, but h e returned later to graduate with B.S. and M.S. degrees in chemistry. H e took a job with Jersey Standard's foreign sales service, assigned t o Brazil. It was in 1925 that he c a m e back to the U. S. to start work o n the company's new venture in alcohols, which led in turn to his interests in market studies. In the cover picture James G. Park of Enjay Co. shows the type of studies, summarized in a chart, which engage the attention of chemical market researchers.
CHEMICAL
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The same factors that have resulted in past growth will contribute to the upward push of pharmaceutical sales, in the opinion of E. R. Swanberg, Scudder, Stevens & Clark. Increasing research and the development of new products are the foremost factors in the growth outlook of the drug indus try, he says. New discoveries among antibiotics aimed for specific diseases, in drugs for treating mental diseases, and of products for treating chronic diseases of the aged will leave plenty of room for the introduction of new "wonder" drugs. A wave of discoveries could sharply accelerate growth of pharmaceutical sales; but on the other hand, a dearth of new products might limit progress. Cutthroat price com petition, should it develop, might pose another danger to the orderly growth of the pharmaceutical industry. A big factor in estimating the future for agricultural chemicals is their sales relationship with farm income, accord ing to R. F. Messing of A. D. Little, Inc. Since about 1948, sales of fer tilizers have increased to a degree greater than might be anticipated from farmers' income, so that continued growth may be expected even though farm prosperity is unchanged. Even so, the farmers' economic position re mains an important consideration. Use of fertilizers in many areas still is considerably under what is believed optimum, says Messing. In fact, ferti lizer output would have to double to come up to the average recommenda tions of state experiment stations. Re cent trends in the fertilizer industry include increasing use of more complex processing operations, increased par ticipation by basic materials manufac turers in production of complete fer tilizer materials, and a general upward movement in the concentration of plant food in materials used as fertilizers. New uses of established chemicals will play an important role in the growth of inorganic chemicals, suggests Ε. Μ. Ott of Pennsalt. The inorganic segment of the chemical industry is one of big volume and relatively stable de mand, coupled with low unit profit, high breakeven point, and intense com petition. Development of new prod ucts by other segments of the process industries has been a big element in the creation of new markets for inorganics. That the production of inorganic chemicals has not risen at so fast a clip in recent years as that of some other sectors of the chemical industry, such as industrial organic chemicals, Ott claims, is chiefly because the compari son is made for a period when inorgan ics are at a higher level on their growth curve than are the more recently de veloped segments of the industry. VOLUME
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