Mineral Output Spurts to Record $26 Billion in 1957 Refined Mineral Value ( billions of dollars)
1947
1951
1954
1955
1956
Source·. Bureau of M i n e *
1957° «•Estimate
FACTS AND FIGURES for the Chemical Process Industries
BASIC MINERALS PAUL W . M c G A N N , Chief Economist, Bureau o f Mines, Washington, D. C.
Increased prices, not bigger production, reason w h y . .
Minerals Output Hits Higher V a l u e X H E VALUE O F refined minerals produced and unrefined minerals sold and used in crude state in 1957 will rise 4 7 above 1956 and reach the highest figure in history—$26.2 billion. This increase is less than one third of that last year or the previous year. As usual, the greatest amount of the estimated increase is for fuels, up 6 7 ; minor increases of less than 27c will occur for refined metals and nonmetallic minerals will suffer a 3 7 decline. All the estimated increases are the result of increased prices; outputs will 54
C&EN
SEPT.
2,
1957
increase very little. The physical volume of mine output will rise only 1%, and the output of refined mineral products probably will decrease slightly. Mineral prices will be 67r higher, largely because of estimated rises in fuel prices and iron-ore and pig-iron prices. The growth of value of mineral production parallels t h e growth in gross national product(GNTP), and 1957 estimates are projected from statistical data for the commodities for the first three to six months of t h e year. (Official Bureau of Mines estimates will b e avail-
able about Jan. 1, 1958.) G N P is expected to increase about 5%, of which more than half probably stems from increased prices. T h e lesser increase in physical volume of minerals than in G N P , in constant dollars, will be partly m a d e up for by slightly greater relative price increases of minerals than for the economy as a whole. The course of 1957 will differ from 1956 largely because of last year's steel strike, which brought forth higher rates of mineral output and consumption before and after the strike than during comparable months in 1957; neverthe-
Ferrous Metals Production IRON ORE M i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s
1 9 4 7 1951
1954
Τ 957 e
1955 1956
PIG IRON Billions of d o l l a r s
1947 1951
1954 1955 1956
1957°
MOLYBDENUM Millions of dollars
1947 1951
1954
1955
1 9 5 6 1957°
TUNGSTEN Millions o f dollars
1947 1951
1954
1955 1 9 5 6
1957°
MANGANESE Millions of dollars
1947 1951
1954
1955 1 9 5 6 e
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce
1957° Estimate
less, the annual total for 1957 will be slightly higher. However, 1957 appar ently will follow 1956 closely. TThe trend of moderate growth of GNP in constant dollars apparently will c o n tinue to parallel t h e average annual secular increase of real income in t h e U. S. for the last half century; during this period about one third of the an nual increase was due to increased population and labor force and t w o thirds to increased productivity of c a p i tal and labor. This increase in G N P , in constant dollars, will be about twice t h e increase in the Industrial Production Index (of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors) because of greater r a t e s of growth in other categories, such, as trade, services, transport, and govern ment. Nickel will b e the only metal remain ing in short supply, as is clearly evi denced b y the increase in the primary nickel price, which is still less than t h a t of secondary nickel in the U . S. a n d London. The shortage of c o p p e r is decisively over, as t h e price continues to decline from 35-plus to below 30 cents because o u t p u t exceeds consump tion plus desired stock reductions. T h e copper price p e r p o u n d is d o w n almost to the aluminum price. T h e Government will n o t extend emergency stockpiling of lead and z i n c beyond present objectives. Stocks of lead and especially zinc are at riigh levels; prices are accordingly low, following changes in U. S. barter r e g u lations t h a t greatly reduced baiter ac cumulation of these metals. Congress dropped the proposals to extend do mestic purchases of tungsten, manga nese, asbestos, beryl, niobium-tantalum, mica, and chrome. These actions m a y mark the end for a while of govern ment stimulus of domestic mineral p r o duction b y new programs, a n d as ex isting contracts a n d programs l a p s e they may not be replaced. The Ad ministration has proposed sliding-scale tariff assistance for lead and zinc and incentive payments for beryl, chrome, and niobium-tantalum, plus exploration assistance and expanded research. Voluntary crude oil import restrictions will be t h e most important government action on fuels inasmuch as t h e Natural Gas Act was not a m e n d e d . Employment in mining will rise about DVC over 1956, but employment in mineral processing and refining will be up only Wc Most of the estimated mining-employment increase is in c r u d e petroleum and bituminous coal, ^vith lc/c annual average increases. Employ-
Ferrous Metals Consumption PIG IRON Millions of short t o n s
60 40
20
1 9 4 7 1951
1956a1957b
1954 1955
FERROUS SCRAP M i l l i o n s of short t o n s
I /Λ
I
1 -%!
It
I Ltr.
1 ·-? Ί
I
50
1
25
1
Xz. 1
I NICKEL
1 9 4 7 1951
o
1 ι
1956°1957fa
1954 1955
Thousands o f short tons
120
80
40
1 9 4 7 1951
1954 1955
1956 1957b
MANGANESE M i l l i o n s o f short tons
2.25
η
1.5
\ -
1
.75
1 mill 1947 1951
Ι ι
Λ r
Ί
l·
• π 1954 1955
1956 1957"
CHROMITE M i l l i o n s o f short tons
1.5
1.0
0,5
1954 1955 1956b 1957b
1947 1951
"Preliminary Source: U. S. Dept. of Commerce
SEPT.
2,
1957
E$timate
C&EN
55
METALS AND MINERALS—Domestic Production e n d V a l u e s Production
Value
A l u m i n u m (short tons)
870,000 805,782 684,038 592,837 305,074 161,626
1,600,000 1,678,954 1,565,721 1,460,565 836,881 571,750
1957 1956 1955 1954 1951 1947
640 590 633 766 3,472 5,316
470 430 407 467 3,067 3,556
1,500,000 1,743,344 1,788,341 1,994,896 1,848,676 1,202,055
12,400 13,973 14,543 16,403 12,478 6,885
1957 1956 1955 1954 1951 1947
3,400 3,404 3,483 3,238 3,582 n..a
750 756 774 720 796 n.a.
308 325.6 310.2 278.4 244.6 190.4
750,000 735,388 573,192 531,895 510,840 336,061
14,500 14,199 10,268
7,375 7,689 5,029
M a g n e s i u m (short tons)
168,000 161,952 153,253 163,365 7,056 948
8,800 7,490 6,644 7,163 511 26
1957 1956 1955 1954 1951 1947
75,000 68,346 61,135 69,729 40,881 12,344
50,000 46,475 36,070 37,654 20,032 5,061
M a n g a n e s e (shipments) (gross tons)
4,100 3,595 2,609 1,996
8,200 9,275 6,783 5,191
903 645
1,016 620,000 920,187 744,933 492,928 449,312 354,281
350,000 345,000 287,255 206,128 105,007 131,627
25,000 24,000 21,651 15,176 6,045 4,201
Not available.
2,
1957 1956 1955 1954 1951 1947
1,150 919 720 705 277 883
7,700 6,283 5,504 4,903 1,532 1,946
M o l y b d e n u m (short tons)
14,260 14,257 12,590 12,333 14,370 10,955
Source: Bureau of Mines.
SEPT.
1957 1956 1955 1954 1951 1947
Mercury (short tons)
330,000 329,719 279,540 245,628 347,024 329,484
C & E N
1957 1956 1955 1954 1951 1947
96,900 111,555 102,396 91,445 135,780 112,730
Fluorspar (shipments) (short tons)
5 6
5,290 4,412 3,881 3,202 1,387 501
320,000 266,937 235,867 189,873 112,047 52,332
Lead (short tons') 1957 334,000 1956 348,329 1955 338,025 1954 325,419 1951 388,164 1947 384,221
Copper (short tons) 1957 1,034,000 1956 1,100,307 1955 998,570 1954 835,472 1951 928,330 1947 847,563
n. a.:
1957 1956 1955 1954 1951 1947
973,000 1,000,200 896,900 773,100 623,000 362,000
Chromite (short tons)
1957 1956 1955 1954 1951 1947
27,000 34,089 33,938 27,384 24,005 16,530
830,000 758,330 733,339 545,877 636,100 320,236
Cement (shipments) (million bbi.)
Cobalt (1000 lb.) 1957 1956 1955 1954 1951 1947
8,200 10,316 10,684 8,996 8,666 6,208
Iron ore (1000 long tons) 1957 102,700 1956 97,849 1955 102,999 1954 78,094 1951 116,505 1947 93,092
5,100 5,215 4,877 4,708 4,057 4,004
1957 1956 1955 1954 1951 1947
1957 1956 1955 1954 1951 1947
17,300 17,730 15,729 11,925 19,397 12,358
C a d m i u m (metallic) (short tons)
1957 1956 1955 1954 1951 1947
63,000 63,500 65,800 64,295 69,335 73,815
llmenite (shipments) (short tons gross)
Bismuth ( c o n s u m e d ) (short tons)
1957 1956 1955 1954 1951 1947
Gold (lOOO fine oz.) 1,800 1957 1,814 1956 1,880 1955 1,837 1954 1,981 1951 2,109 1947
Production
Value
{$1000)
Phosphate rock (marketable) (1000 long tons) 1957 14,200 88,000 1956 97,922 15,747 1955 7:;, 379 12,265 1954 86,669 13,821 1951 66,158 11,095 46,639 1947 9,027 Pig iron (shipments) ( 1 0 0 0 short tons)
1957 1956 1955 1954 1951 1947
76,000 75,159 77,301 57,783 70,250 58,368
,950,000 4,557,613 3,917,336 2,885,240 3,284,110
H e l i u m (shipments) ( 1 0 0 0 c u . ft.)
Bauxite (long tons)
1957 1956 1955 1954 1951 1947
Value {$1000)
G y p s u m ( 1 0 0 0 short tons)
A n t i m o n y (ore content) (short tons)
1957 1956 1955 1954 1951 1947
Production
($1000)
1957
1957 1956 1955 1954 1951 1947
28,400 28,730 30,891 29,334 19,428 13,524
67,000 65,500 64,870 58,670 37,035 18,500
Potash (sales) ( 1 0 0 0 long tons)
1957 1956 1955 1954 1951 1947
3,600 3,571 3,430 3,270 2,452 1,953
80,000 79,751 77,217 71,819 44,789 39,413
Rutile (shipments) (short tons)
1957 1956 1955 1954 1951 1947
15,000 12,065 9,182 7,305 10,919 5,157
2,200 1,749 1,122 870 545 534
Silver (1000 fine oz.) 1957 38,600 1956 37,127 1955 37,198 1954 36,941 1951 39,765 1947 35,824
35,000 33,720 33,664 33,432 35,987 32,421
Sulfur ( n a t i v e shipments) ( 1 0 0 0 long t o n s ) 1957
5,400
144,000
1956 1955 1954 1951 1947
5,676 5,839 5,328 4,988 4,828
150,376 163,156 142,014 107,300 85,200
Titanium (short tons)
1957 1956 1955 1954 1951 1947
20,000 14,598 7,398 5,370 495 0
100,000 90,000 57,889 50,900 4,950 0
Tungsten (1OO0 lb.)
1957 1956 1955 1954 1951 1947
7,200 14,376 15,833 13,166 5,914 3,026
Zinc (recoverable) (short tons) 1957 511,000 1956 537,640 1955 514,671 1954 473,471 1951 681,189 1947 637,608
28,000
64,700 61,750 52,000 22,770 4,480
118,000 145,000 124,261 101,200 245, 100 133,900
ment in copper mining was at a high in the first five months of 1956 but declined notably thereafter. Man-hours of employment are estimated to be about 7% higher in 1957 in mining and 1% in mineral refining. In neither mining nor mineral refining will the average hours per week for any industrial category vary more than 2rA. All average weekly hours are down, except for crude petroleum. Average hourly earnings should be up 6% over 1956 for both mining and mineral refining. Total payrolls are estimated to b e higher by quite sizable amounts in those industries, with significant employment increases. The largest payroll increases are 20% in bituminous coal, 15% in crude petroleum, and 10% in anthracite. I n anthracite a 5% decline in man-hours is more than offset by a 15% increase in average hourly earnings. Bituminous coal had the other large increase in average hourly earnings—12%. All other increases in average hourly earnings will range between 3 and 8%. Labor cost increases (per unit of output) will be especially high for some minerals industries: 2 0 % for bituminous coal, 14% for anthracite, 14% for crude oil and gas, 8% for metal mining, but nil for nonmetallic minerals. Labor costs, as a fraction of sales, also will increase over 1956 for anthracite (10%) and for metals, bituminous coal, and crude oil and gas ( 7 to 8 % ) . Nonmetallics will decrease about 4%.
Petroleum Products Output Millions of barrels
GASOLINE & JET FUEL
900 600 300 ι
"Τ Ι 947
Pig-îron production will be only 1% higher, and net imports remain minor. Prices will rise by 8 % , exceeding the steel price increases. iron and sfèëi scrap availability will be 3 % less than in 1956 as a result of a similar decrease in prices. Net exports are expected to be 2 5 % above 1956, because of the continued rapid expansion of steel production in Japan, Italy, Canada, and Mexico, where growth in blast-furnace capacity has faiïed to match increased steel capacity. This is a new record, despite restrictive actions by U. S. Department of Commerce. Molybdenum production will be 1% lower despite a 4 % increase in annual average prices. Exports are to be up
1951
1954
1955
1956
1957°
KEROSENE 125
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Nonferrous Metals
Chromite production will increase slightly ( 4 % ) and will be relatively unchanged b y congressional action on the purchase program. The program is covered largely under one existing Government contract for submetallurgical-grade material. T h e average mar ket price will b e some 89c higher. Chemical-grade imports are estimated to be 3 0 % higher than in 1956.
Consumption
Tungsten production will fall over 50 /c, a result of a decline of domestic product price from the supported level price of $63 to the market price plus duty; this is estimated to b e , on an annual average basis, down $25 from a 1956 average price of $39. Imports will continue high, partly because of effects of unfinished government con tracts, b u t will b e 7% below last year. c
1951
uΗ Ί
1 0 r r , b u t foreign customers still will not receive all they want.
0
l\
', p a r t l y as a result of t h e d e c l i n e in t h e p h y s i c a l v o l u m e of c o n s t r u c t i o n a n d p a r t l y from t h e s t r i k e . Prices are e x p e c t e d to b e 5 % h i g h e r . G y p s u m p r o d u c t i o n will decline m u c h m o r e — 2 3 % — b e c a u s e of i t s i n t i m a t e relation t o r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c tion, w h i c h fell m o r e t h a n o t h e r t y p e s of b u i l d i n g . T h e a n n u a l a v e r a g e p r i c e s of g y p s u m p r o d u c t s will r e m a i n e s s e n tially u n c h a n g e d . Open-market lime sales in t h e U . S. will d e c r e a s e a b o u t 4 % , m o s t l y b e c a u s e of an a p p r o x i m a t e l y lOr/t d r o p in a g r i c u l t u r a l l i m e a n d b u i l d i n g l i m e a n d a 7 % fall in sales of r e f r a c t o r y (dead-burn dolomite). Chemical a n d o t h e r industrial lime sales will d e c r e a s e about 1%. Sulfur p r o d u c t i o n from n a t i v e d e posits will fall 5 % . Prices will r e m a i n fixed n o m i n a l l y , b u t i n c r e a s e d e x p o r t s from M e x i c o will soften p r i c e s for e x port. E x p o r t s will r e m a i n a b o u t c o n s t a n t . T h e U. S. D e p a r t m e n t of t h e I n t e r i o r a p p r o v e d a s s i g n m e n t of t h e H u m b l e offshore lease t o F r e e p o r t , w h i c h will a d d m a t e r i a l l y t o o u t p u t b y 1959. P h o s p h a t e rock o u t p u t w i l l d e crease about 1 0 % , because of only m i n o r i m p r o v e m e n t in a g r i c u l t u r a l i n c o m e ; a n n u a l a v e r a g e prices w i l l r e m a i n u n c h a n g e d . E x p o r t s w i l l be u p 6%. Potash output a n d essentially u n c h a n g e d .
price
will
Petroleum and G a s Crude p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t i o n inc r e a s e d 5 % d u r i n g t h e first p a r t of
be
1 9 5 7 , l a r g e l y u n d e r t h e stimulus of the S u e z crisis, b u t is e x p e c t e d t o fall back l a t e r in t h e year t o an e s t i m a t e d annual i n c r e a s e of 3 % . T h e average well v a l u e also rose d u r i n g the early part of t h e y e a r , b u t this also w i l l soften l a t e r . T h e r e s u l t i n g e s t i m a t e of value of p r o d u c t i o n is 6 % a b o v e 1956. Imp o r t s will b e u p 97
