Natural glycerine muscles in on synthetics That old war-horse, glycerine, is being reinvigorated as new sources of supply are enabling producers to find new mar kets and new applications. That is one of the major conclusions of a just-published study, "Glycerine vs Other Polyols— World Markets, 1990-2002," from con sultants Colin A. Houston & Associates of Mamaroneck, N.Y. Glycerine is expected to be produced not only as by-product from fatty acid and alcohols and methyl esters produc tion at new oleochemical plants, but also from production of biodiesel fuel (pro duced from biomass) and sucrose poly esters. The increase in capacity will al low glycerine prices to settle at a level at which the compound can muscle other polyols out of markets. Particularly vul nerable, the study predicts, will be pro pylene glycol, followed by pentaerythritol and sorbitol.
In 1992, according to the study, about 87% of the world's glycerine production was natural and 13% synthetic—a far cry from a generation ago, when synthetic glycerine processes sent prices to the cellar for the compound, generally produced as coproduct or by-product. For instance, last year, soap production generated 37% of all glycerine produced globally, followed closely by fatty acid production, which yielded 34% of total glycerine supply. Production of fatty alcohols accounted for another 13%, synthetic production 13%, and biodiesel and other methyl esters 3% combined. Whaf s more, by the end of the decade, producers of the synthetic material will face even stiffer competition, as more nat ural glycerine enters the marketplace, par ticularly in Western Europe. A case in point: Although production of methyl ester for biodiesel fuel generated only about 1% of the world's glycerine supply, and sucrose polyesters were not a factor in 1992, these two sources of supply could account for as much as 12% of world glyc erine production by 1997.
But the future is anything but clear for glycerine, the study says. If new ventures such as biodiesel and sucrose polyester, and oleochemical expansions fail to fully materialize, the glycerine market may be "relatively balanced" throughout the fore cast period. But if these ventures do come to pass, there may well be "significant excess production," perhaps as much as 150 million lb per year excess by 1997. That would be more than 10% extra for the glycerine market, which is currently pegged at 1.32 billion lb per year. The con sultants say the market allows suppliers to target sectors where other polyols have been favored or where they have not tra ditionally been used. "Novel applications and increased cap tive consumption will certainly help to address any supply-demand imbalances," says Christopher Houston, project leader for the study. And consumption will be aided, he explains, by improving econom ic conditions in Eastern Europe and by rapidly increasing sales to Asian countries such as China. Patricia Layman
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