tensively with the quark idea. Over the past 10 years, he explains, the quark model has been transformed from a simple classification scheme, in which only particles with two or three quarks were possible, into a far more complex theory of quark dynamics that seems to allow for larger systems like the diproton. [Dr. Jaffe's review article on this theory appeared in Nature, 268,201(1977)]. "It's as if we only knew of the deuteron and the triton," he says, "but had never seen the more complicated nuclei." •
Survey finds scientists staying with careers In 1972 the National Science Foundation, with the help of the Census Bureau, pulled together a sample group of 50,000 scientists and engineers representing, says NSF, those individuals working in science and engineering when the national population census was collected in 1970. In 1974 and again in 1976, NSF surveyed the same sample group to see what's happened to them in their careers. The answer: no dramatic change. Generally a person who was a physical scientist in 1972 was in the same field in 1974 and 1976, although not necessarily in the same job. During the same four-year period, there was a slight (2%) increase in engineering employment, according to the NSF sample surveys, which means that some of the original group switched professions, or at least said they did. The sample does not include new entries into the science and engineering work force since 1970. Since the median age of NSF's sample group is, like everything else, getting older (the median age is 44), more scientists and engineers have been moving up into managerial positions. In the years 1974 to 1976, for example, the proportion of those in the sample group moving into managerial positions increased 4%, and by 1976 31% of the group were in managerial positions. At the same time the proportion of individuals engaged in R&D decreased slightly from 30% to 29%. In 1976 only 3% of the sample were working in basic research, compared with 4% in 1974. Not surprisingly, business and industry continues to employ the largest number of scientists and engineers, and in the period from 1972 to 1976 the figure hovered around 60%. Employment by academic institutions also remained stable during the same period at about 14%. Overall, direct participation by
Field pattern has changed little for 1972 group 1972
1974
1976
Physical scientists 1 1 % Engineers 62 Mathematical 3 scientists Computer 6 scientists Environmental 2 scientists Life scientists 7 Psychologists 3 Social scientists 6
11% 64 3
11 % 64 2
5
5
3
3
7 3 4
7 3 4
Note: Distribution of scientists and engineers by field. Source: National Science Foundation
NSF's sample group in science and engineering has been uniformly high with a rate of more than 96% in the last two sample years. Of those people not directly engaged in technical occupations, few, according to NSF, said it was because of a lack of technical positions, but rather a matter of personal choice. Generally, unemployment among scientists and engineers has been much lower than the national unemployment average between 1972 and 1976. In both 1972 and 1976, only about 2% of the NSF sample were out of work, and in 1974 only about 1% of the sample were unemployed. •
Some economic growth predicted for 1978 The economy in 1978 will be much like that of 1977. Signs indicate moderate growth in the first part of the year that will slow as the year goes on, but all in all it will be a slightly better year than 1977. This is the crux of the message in the much-watched annual business forecast by the National Association of Purchasing Management announced at a press conference last week in New York City. According to E. P. Andrews, corporate vice president of materials and services for Allegheny Ludlum and chairman of NAPM's Business Survey Committee, this pattern probably will continue because of a drop in inventories at the end of the year owing to inventory taxes and last-in-firstout accounting. Such a drop is then followed in the first part of the following year by inventory buildups, which provide an incentive for the economy. Andrews predicts that unemployment will not fall below 6% next year and may rise as high as 7% or more.
He blames the high unemployment specifically on the lackluster capital spending performance of industry. Andrews says that the country cannot absorb the new workers entering the job market until capital expenditures pick up and new plants are built to employ them. According to Andrews, capital spending is the weakest part of the forecast. He predicts that capital expenditures will increase next year about 8.5 to 9% in current dollars. However, with inflation of 6% or above, this represents an increase of only 2 to 3% in real dollar spending. Part of the reason for low capital spending is that capacity is not strained, according to Andrews. Only about 41% of the purchasing managers who responded to the NAPM survey say that their plants are operating at more than 90% capacity. Only 39% of the purchasing managers say that their companies will increase capital spending in 1978. This compares with 45% who last year said that their firms would increase capital expenditures in 1977 over 1976. However, Andrews adds that actual capital spending tends to exceed the expectations as the new year progresses. Normally, the percentage of those purchasing managers who say that their companies are spending more will increase about 10 points as the year goes along, Andrews says. For example, even though last year only 45% said that their companies would increase 1977 expenditures over 1976, by last month 55% responded that their companies had spent more during this year than last. As to how next year looks generally as compared with 1977, 59% say that 1978 will be a better year, and 15% say that it will be worse. Last year at this time, 69% forecast that 1977 would be a better year and 12% said it would be worse. Andrews concludes that 1978 will be better than 1977, but not much better. •
New drugs may help treat Parkinsonism The ergot alkaloids form a new class of drugs that show promise in treatment of Parkinsonism. One particular compound that has proved effective in some trials at New York University's school of medicine is lergotrile mesylate (2-chloro-6-methyl ergoline-8/J-acetonitrile methane sulfate). Lergotrile mesylate is a synthetic nonpeptide ergot derivative. It has been effective in treating 20 patients with Parkinsonism who exhibited Dec. 5, 1977C&EN
5
signs of disease progression despite treatment with levodopa combined with the decarboxylase inhibitor carbidopa. According to the investigators at NYU, the majority of patients with Parkinsonism initially respond to treatment with levodopa, but an increasingly large number of patients now are deterioriating despite the treatment. The deterioriation usually manifests itself after two to five years of levodopa administration—probably the result of disease progression, rather than an immune reaction to the levodopa-carbidopa treatment. It has been postulated that in the early stages of Parkinsonism, administration of levodopa compensates for a dopamine deficiency. However, as the disease progresses, the natural production of dopamine drops so low that the levodopa no longer can compensate and the disease reappears after a period of apparent arrest. If the postulate is correct, it would seem advantageous to use a drug that stimulates the postsynaptic receptors directly. This appears to be the case with lergotrile mesylate. The patients were given lergotrile mesylate in combination with levodopa and carbidopa. Within two months there was a significant reduction in abnormal involuntary movements and rigidity in about half the patients. When the dosages of levodopa and carbidopa were reduced there was further reduction in these movements. However, mental changes appeared in six patients with the administration of lergotrile mesylate. These changes disappeared with decreases in dosage or discontinuation of the drug. These and other adverse effects appear to be specific and dose-related. The investigators are continuing tjieir tests to obtain clarification of the effects of abnormalities related to the administration of the new drugs. At present they are not in general use. Other new and related drugs that show some promise are aporphines such as Af-propylnoraporphine and bromocryptine, another ergot alkaloid. •
Carbide switching to slower growth strategy Like other big chemical producers, Union Carbide has come to realize that its high-growth, high-investment strategy of the past few years is not working out. Instead of snapping back from the 1975 recession, as had been expected, the U.S. economy and economies abroad have instead gone into what looks like an extended pe6
C&EN Dec. 5, 1977
Sneath: planning on a tough 1978
riod of slow growth with intermittent minor pauses. What can a large company do about this unexpected development, saddled as it is with capital- and technology-intensive products requiring massive investment planned years in advance of actual marketing? Carbide took its time deciding over the past year but now has worked out a new strategy after a top-to-bottom review of operations and of its research and development. Last week in New York City, the company detailed its plans on both a corporate and operational level to security analysts. This presentation follows an earlier disclosure that the company was heading into a cutback of personnel in some areas (C&EN, Oct. 17, page 4). It also follows a presentation similar in scope but somewhat different in its conclusions by Dow Chemical to many of the same analysts (C&EN, Nov. 28, page 10). The key to Carbide's shift is a new policy of selective investing done according to a priority listing of virtually all its worldwide operations. Some still will be pushed, some will be left alone, and some will be divested. Overall, the company will keep its greatly expanded R&D effort growing in 1978 and will rely heavily on new technology to get it through the next few years, especially in products where the company competes with the giant oil companies. However, there will be some trimming at Carbide in other respects. A net reduction is on the way for companywide salaried employment, and Carbide will greatly reduce its rate of capital spending. In so doing, Carbide will eliminate the need for outside financing in the next year or two. Carbide chairman William S. Sneath puts combined capital spending for 1977 and 1978 at $1.6
billion to $1.7 billion, down from $2 billion. The actual amount for 1978 will fall to about $750 million from about $900 million this year. Summing up the outlook for business next year, Sneath says, "We're basing our plans on a tough 1978. We foresee slower growth and the persistence of problems that have put us in a cost-price squeeze this year. The outlook for Europe, especially, concerns us." In this rugged business climate, Carbide is resisting so far the temptation to cut R&D funds. Since R&D is accounted as a direct business cost, cutting here is an expedient way to shore up profits. In fact, Sneath indicates a very high position for technology in the company's new strategy. He says that, if it comes down to a single important factor in Carbide's future plans among those of management, marketing, or technology, he would have to say it would be technology. Process research now takes half the R&D dollars in Carbide's chemicals and plastics group, which in turn takes half the company's R&D budget. Carbide executives also went into some detail on their plans for new technology in the company's most crucial product line, the ethylene chain. The company has added stature these days in discussing ethylene-based chemicals technology, since it has introduced its revolutionary new process for low-density polyethylene, the top-volume U.S. plastic resin (see page 21). On ethylene, the most vital of Carbide's starting material chemicals, the company now figures that the current oversupply will not disappear until the mid-1980's. Hence, Carbide will continue its dual policy here of making some and, increasingly, buying the rest. Dr. Robert E. Pyle, president of Carbide's industrial chemicals division, says, "We project the market price for ethylene will stay at least 2 cents per lb below the reinvestment cost curve for a 10% aftertax return." However, for the mid-1980's, Carbide has something brand new in the works—ethylene produced by its long-developing crude-oil-cracking process, now in the pilot plant stage at Seadrift, Tex. Pyle says that this process is expected to reach the commercial stage about 1985, with about a 4 cent-per-lb cost advantage over conventional ethylene technology. (Ethylene currently sells at about 12.5 cents per lb.) Asked about how this process compares with Dow Chemical's newly announced crudecracking process (C&EN, Nov. 28, page 6), Pyle says, "We will be there ahead of them." •
