News Briefs
Rising worldwide energy demand, CO2 emissions
China’s environment
quently, the EIA concludes that even if industrialized countries implemented climate change policies such as the Kyoto Protocol, “there still would be substantial increases in worldwide carbon dioxide emissions over the forecast horizon.” In separate energy forecasts issued in 2003, the European Commission (EC) and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) International Energy Agency also predict dramatic increases in world energy demand over the next couple of decades; however, the groups present an alternative scenario to the EIA’s business-as-usual projections. They find that implementing new policies and deploying cleaner technologies could reduce the expected world energy consumption and eventually stabilize greenhouse gas emissions in OECD countries by 2030. The EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2004 can be accessed at www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo. For more information on the EC and OECD reports, go to http://europa.eu.int/ comm/research/energy/pdf/weto_ final_report.pdf and www.worlden ergyoutlook.org. —KRIS CHRISTEN
Although China’s acid rain problems worsened in 2003, the country maintained the overall quality of its environment last year, according to the country’s State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA). SEPA reported detecting rain with a pH value of 6.5 or less in samples from 54.4% of the 487 cities it monitors; the total annual precipitation of 37.4% of the monitored cities was acid rain based on this definition, an increase of 4.8%. The country’s urban air quality improved overall, according to State of the Environment—2003, with 41.7% of the 340 monitored cities meeting the country’s Grade II national air standards, an improvement of 7.9% over the previous year. The report nonetheless cautioned that urban air pollution remains a “serious issue”. To see an English translation of the report, go to www.zhb.gov.cn/english/news_ detail.php3?id=8616.
Particulates inside cars affect health
Despite a phaseout slated for 2005, farmers in several industrialized countries can continue to use the agricultural pesticide methyl bromide, which is known to damage the stratospheric ozone layer. Eleven countries garnered limited criticaluse exemptions for 2005, which total 13,400 metric tons (t), under a compromise agreement reached during the latest Montreal Protocol negotiations that concluded in Montreal, Canada, in late March. Further exemption requests are now being considered for 2006 and beyond. Under the original Montreal Protocol, developed countries reduced their methyl bromide use to 30% of their 1991 baseline levels. A complete phaseout was slated for 2005, with developing countries to
COREL
Ozone pollutant phaseout delayed
In the United States, methyl bromide is mainly used on strawberries (18% of the U.S. total) and tomatoes (23% of the U.S. total), according to the U.S. EPA. Before the crop is planted, the fumigant is injected into the soil, effectively sterilizing it by killing the vast majority of soil organisms.
People who regularly log long hours behind the wheel can be exposed to enough particulate matter to create observable changes in their cardiovascular health, according to results of a study published in April (Am. J. Respir. Crit. Care Med. 2004, 169, 934–940). Researchers from the U.S. EPA; the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill; and the North Carolina State Highway Patrol tracked heart rhythms and took blood samples from nine young, healthy troopers before and after their nine-hour shifts and monitored the air inside the patrol cars. The researchers linked concentrations of PM2.5 in the cars to noticeable changes in autonomic heart rhythms and increased levels of vascular proteins that could potentially lead to blood clots.
JUNE 15, 2004 / ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY ■ 217A
NCSHP
Global energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are likely to increase by more than 50% over the next 20 years, with much of the growth centered in the developing world, according to the latest international energy forecast by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA). Energy demand in Asia alone, spurred on by robust economic growth in India and China, is projected to double, accounting for 40% of the increase in energy consumption, the EIA predicts in the forecast, which was released in April. Overall, developing countries’ energy demand is expected to rise by 90%, which would account for 61% of the increased CO2 emissions. In contrast, demand in industrialized countries is expected to grow by only 33% because of energy efficiency gains and movement away from energy-intensive manufacturing to service industries, according to the report. Oil and other fossil fuels are expected to drive the bulk of this increased energy demand, with renewable energy growth pegged at a moderate 1.9% per year. Conse-
