industrial sector into the residential sector could occur in the winter of 1976. The report spells out the "fragile" conditions upon which the economy is dependent: The winter is no more than 5% colder than normal, the economy does not recover more rapidly than expected [which would increase demand], there is no further deterioration in natural gas supplies, and alternate fuels remain available. If these conditions hold, OTA estimates that natural gas supplies will fall 4% (or 300 billion cu ft) short of the amount needed to meet the contract commitments of interstate suppliers. This figure contrasts sharply with the Federal Power Commission's predicted figure of 18% (or 1.3 trillion cu ft). OTA expects many instances of severe dislocations in mid- and south Atlantic and east north central regions because of the nonuniformity of the shortages. It points out in the report that unemployment in these regions could go as high as 100,000 people over a 20- to 90-day period. The textile, brick, and cement industries would be the most critically affected. For the fertilizer industry, on the other hand, the report says that gas curtailments have so far only affected process fuel and not feedstocks. And it maintains that loss in productivity for most affected industries could be offset in other parts of the country where supplies are sufficient. Demand for alternate fuels—No. 2 and No. 6 fuel oil, propane, and synthetic natural gas feedstocks (naphtha)—will increase imports and therefore be counter to the U.S. goal of greater energy independence, the report adds. And fuel costs for customers who must use these alternatives could increase about $1.5 billion for this year over last year. The report lists some issues that should be addressed to deal with a long-term shortage problem. They include the investigation of contingency plans with Canada and Mexico, establishment of a strong research program, and an examination of worst-case situations. For the short term, it emphasizes such measures as conservation (in the private, industrial, and commercial sectors), and a 180-day emergency sales plan. This latter measure would allow interstate pipelines to purchase natural gas on the intrastate market, from producers directly or from intrastate pipelines, with automatic abandonment of the sale and transportation of gas at the end of 180 days. D 6
C&EN Nov. 24, 1975
Call for petitions Call for petitions, interim election to fill vacancy, Region I director Members of Region I, ACS The election of Henry A. Hill as the society's president-elect for 1976 creates a vacancy in the office of director, Region I, for 1976. Bylaw V, Sec. 6(b) provides: "A vacancy in the office of Regional Director shall be filled by vote of the Councilors of the region affected as soon as practicable after the vacancy occurs and for the unexpired term of that office." The Committee on Nominations and Elections, proceeding in accordance with Bylaw V, Sec. 6(b) and Sec. 10, has arranged for a special election by mail ballot of the councilors in Region I, and has submitted the names of the following two candidates as its nominees: Anna J. Harrison and J. Trygve Jensen. Both agree to serve if elected. Bylaw V, Sec. 10 states that the procedure for conducting a special election of this kind "shall include an opportunity for nomination by
Nitrogen fertilizers may endanger ozone The use of nitrogen fertilizers could produce a reduction in the earth's protective ozone layer comparable to, or even greater than that proposed in the still-unresolved issue of chlorofluorocarbons, a Harvard University scientist believes. Not everyone in the scientific community, however, is buying this theory. Speaking to a recent meeting of science writers in Ann Arbor, Mich., atmospheric scientist Michael B. McElroy explained how he believes that man's continued use of nitrogen fertilizers such as ammonia may be forcing the earth's nitrogen cycle out of balance. What's happening, he says, is that nitrogen fertilizers produce abnormal quantities of nitrous oxide, which is eventually oxidized to other nitrogen oxides in the stratosphere. There the gas attacks the ozone that protects the planet's surface from harmful levels of ultraviolet radiation. Chlorofluorocarbons, used as aerosol propellants and refrigerants, are believed by some scientists to produce a similar effect. Normally, McElroy explains, there is a natural balance of nitrogen compounds in the atmosphere. Microorganisms extract or "fix"
petition which differs from the regular procedure for the office involved only in the date that petitions must be received by the Executive Director." Bylaw V, Sec. 3(e) provides "one per cent of the members of the Society entitled to vote in the region electing a regional director, not more than one-third of whom are identified with any one local section, shall have the privilege of nominating a candidate for regional director by filing a written petition with the Executive Director . . . . To be valid, the signature of a member may not appear on behalf of more than one candidate for the same office." Accordingly, members of Region I may now submit petition nominations. To be valid, such petitions must reach the office of the executive director by the end of the business day, Dec. 22, 1975. The names of any petition nominees will appear on the ballot with the two names above, and the ballots will be distributed to Region I councilors as soon as practical after Dec. 22. Robert W. Cairns
nitrogen from the air as part of their metabolic process. This nitrogen is then available for use by plants such as legumes. When the plants eventually die, the nitrogen they have extracted from the atmosphere may be released by anaerobic decay, or denitrification, as molecular nitrogen, which is harmless, and as nitrous oxide, some of which finds its way into the stratosphere. However, chemically fixing nitrogen from the atmosphere through industrial processes—such as ammonia production for fertilizer— shifts the natural nitrogen balance toward increased nitrous oxide production. By the year 2000, McElroy says, use of nitrogen fertilizers may have reduced the earth's ozone layer by as much as 20 to 25%. At least one scientist concerned with the stratospheric ozone question vigorously disagrees with McElroy. Harold S. Johnston of the University of California, Berkeley, one of the original opponents of the supersonic transport, agrees that use of nitrogen fertilizer will decrease stratospheric ozone, but only about 2 to 3% by the end of this century. Although a serious matter, Johnston believes, this is not the catastrophe that McElroy seems to predict. McElroy says, in turn, that Johnston is "absolutely wrong" and has not considered all the available data about nitrous oxide sources. D
