Outlook bright for offshore oil and gas - C&EN Global Enterprise (ACS

These forecasts are contained in a recently released report prepared by Arthur D. Little Inc. for the Department of Interior's Bureau of Land Manageme...
0 downloads 0 Views 316KB Size
other nonprofit organizations, 58.6%. The shift from "basic" to "pragmatic" research continues, Battelle comments. Particularly in industry the shift has been toward "defensive research" because of growing governmental emphasis on environmental protection, occupational safety and health, and consumer safeguards. D

Bloch retains board chair, Hader secretary Dr. Herman S. Bloch will be chairman of the ACS Board of Directors in 1977. He was elected to his fifth consecutive year in the office by his fellow board members at the board's meeting in Washington, D.C., earlier this month. In other actions at the meeting the board made one change in the elected membership of its Executive Committee and made changes in the chairmanship of two of its standing committees. The board also elected Rodney N. Hader to the newly formalized position of secretary of the society. Bloch has been the director from Region V, the upper Midwest, since 1971. Last month he was elected by ACS members residing in the region to a third three-year term. He is a research executive with UOP. The three elected members of the board's Executive Committee for 1977 will be Dr. Mary L. Good and Dr. Bryce Crawford Jr., who served last year, and Dr. Pauline Newman, who will succeed Dr. William J. Bailey. Ex-officio members will be Bloch, president Henry A. Hill, and president-elect Anna J. Harrison. Next year Good will relinquish chairmanship of the board's Committee on Publications to Dr. Robert R. Parry. She will succeed Dr. John C. Sheehan, who will no longer be on the board, as chairman of the Finance Committee. Other chairmanships will remain unchanged: Dr. Gardner W. Stacy retains Education & Students, Dr. Raymond P. Mariella retains Public, Professional & Member Relations, Newman retains Grant & Awards, and Crawford continues to head the committee on CAS. Hader joined the ACS staff in 1950 as an associate editor in the society's Chicago office. He served in many managerial and editorial positions for the society's publications program, including editorship of the Journal of Agricultural & Food Chemistry from 1956 until 1964, before being appointed assistant to the president in 1971, executive assistant to the ex-

public comment. Only a few were addressed in the two-day meeting. Among the issues debated was whether chemicals should be treated as classes or as individuals. Another was the question of how claims of confidentiality should be handled when a manufacturer gives notice to EPA that it intends to market a new chemical. Dr. William Sherman of the American Paper Institute believes that claims of confidentiality regarding planned uses, for competitive reasons, should be "rigidly upheld." Environmental Defense Fund's Jackie Warren argues that the public has a right to know the intended use of a new chemical. Quarles, although admitting that there appears to be a conflict, questions how EPA would be able to judge the risk of a chemical to Hader: secretary post formalized the public if it isn't told what the ecutive director in 1972, and secretary planned use is. And George S. Domto the board in 1974. inguez, who is with Ciba-Geigy and is He has essentially carried out the chairman of the Manufacturing duties of secretary of the society since Chemists Association's chemical 1970. But establishment of the office regulatory advisory committee, points of the secretary, which was approved out that there must be a balance bein principle by the board in 1970, was tween the need for justifiable public not formalized by the board and notice and commensurate preservacouncil until this fall. D tion of justifiable trade secrets. ACS's Harrison offered the services of the society to EPA in implementing the act. The society, she says, is Open hearings start on prepared to cooperate with the agency in the "adaptation and detoxic substances rules velopment of computerized inforThe Environmental Protection mation systems to compile, store, and Agency's first public meeting on the expeditiously access the great mass of implementation of the toxic sub- information inherent in the implestances control act last week had a mentation of the act." Further, ACS record turnout. Participants included will have available in the near future industry representatives, environ- a roster of chemists who have a "wide mentalists, private citizens, and Dr. spectrum of scientific skills and exAnna J. Harrison, who will be presi- ceptional competences in the areas dent of the American Chemical So- related to chemical toxicity." This roster is being developed for internal ciety in 1978. EPA deputy administrator John R. ACS use, but the society, Harrison Quarles Jr. made a plea for further pledges, will be willing to search this dialogue and written comments. The roster in response to specific requests D agency had identified 99 issues for from EPA.

Outlook bright for offshore oil and gas Newly leased areas on the U.S. outer continental shelf (OCS) could produce enough additional oil to reduce oil import requirements 10 to 15% in 1980 and 10 to 30% in 1985. Additional natural gas from these newly leased areas could alleviate a 1980 U.S. gas shortfall as much as 40%. The anticipated 1985 shortfall could be reduced at least 36% and possibly may be eliminated altogether. But tapping this lucrative source of oil and gas won't be easy. And it won't be cheap. These forecasts are contained in a recently released report prepared by

Arthur D. Little Inc. for the Department of Interior's Bureau of Land Management (BLM). ADL's projections are based on the most recent (1975) resource estimates of the U.S. Geological Survey and BLM's proposed leasing schedule through 1978. The figures presuppose

No Dec. 27 issue Chemical & Engineering News will not publish an issue on Dec. 27, 1976. The editors wish all readers a very happy holiday season. Our next issue will be Jan. 3, 1977.

Dec. 20, 1976C&EN

7

Gulf of Mexico still looks best for offshore oil, gas Expected production* 1980 1985 1990

OIL (millions of bbl) Atlantic Coast Gulf of Mexico Pacific Coast Alaska GAS (billions of cu ft) Atlantic Coast Gulf Of Mexico Pacific Coast Alaska

239 80 91 60 8

972 145 197 165 465

801 94 170 141 396

1426 2466 2082 220 340 283 1109 1692 1370 93 180 151 4 254 278

a Assumes wellhead prices of $12 per bbl for oil and $1.25 per thousand cu ft for gas. Source: Arthur D. Little Inc.

wellhead prices of $12 per bbl for oil, $1.25 per thousand cu ft for gas. If industry pursues what it calls "an optimistic time schedule" in developing its leases, ADL estimates that additional oil produced from new OCS leases could reach 239 million bbl by 1980. This amount is in addition to existing OCS production (essentially in the Gulf of Mexico), which was 490 million bbl last year. By 1985, new OCS oil production could be as much as 1 billion bbl, but it will taper off to 800 million bbl by 1990. In 1975, OCS sources yielded 3.7

Job outlook is better for The class of 1977 will enter a somewhat friendlier job market than did the class of 1976, according to Dr. Frank S. Endicott, director of placement (emeritus) at Northwestern University. Endicott compiles the Endicott Report, a yearly survey of trends in employment of graduates by business and industry. This year's report is based on responses from 215 large and medium-sized U.S. corporations. Asked their predictions on the general business outlook for 1977, 63% of the companies say 1977 will be better than 1976, 33% say it will be about the same, and 4% say it will be worse. In any event, they will be hiring more college graduates than they did this year. Of the companies responding to the survey, 72% say their total needs for graduates with bachelor's degrees will be higher in 1977 than 1976, 9% say their needs will remain the same, and 19% expect their requirements to be lower. At the master's level, 58% of the firms will need more graduates, 7% the same number, and 35% fewer. In greatest demand, Endicott says, will be graduates in engineering, accounting, business administration, and sales. Hiring plans revealed by 185 com8

C&EN Dec. 20, 1976

trillion cu ft of natural gas. If industry Coal-to-fuels project accelerates its exploration and development, ADL believes that OCS runs into problems leases could produce an additional 1.5 trillion cu ft in 1980 and 2.5 trillion cu The Coalcon coal-to-fuels project is ft in 1985. Like oil, natural gas pro- experiencing teething pains. Now duction from OCS areas would taper nearing the end of the first phase in a off by 1990—to about 2.1 trillion cu ft. projected eight-year program, it is Presumably, the slack will be taken facing the first critical decision since up by another round of BLM lease it started in January 1975. The Energy Research & Development Adsales. But the cost of developing these ministration, which has funded the new OCS areas will be high. ADL es- program thus far, has expressed contimates that cumulative exploration cern over the economics being "too and development costs will reach marginal" for comfort, and over some $13.4 billion by 1990. In 1980 alone, technical problems in the operation annual capital expenditures could of the fluid-bed carbonizer. reach $2.7 billion. By comparison, the ERDA's concerns are shared by industry spent an estimated $5.7 bil- Union Carbide, which manages the lion in 1974 for all exploration and project. However, Carbide does not development. regard the problems with the Coalcon The actual volumes of oil and gas project as anything unusual in deproduced from each OCS area de- velopment projects of this type. Carpend, of course, on many variables bide, which assumed complete dithat influence cost-price relation- rection of the project after Chemical ships. They also depend on how in- Construction Corp. pulled out two dustry views the economics of ex- weeks ago, developed the proprietary ploring and developing individual technology for the process before 1960 fields. Exploration wells can cost from and appears confident that the dif$2 million to more than $10 million ficulties can be worked out. per well, depending on ÔCS location. Following intense competition, a As few as one and as many as 20 ex- prospective site for the proposed ploration wells may be needed to lo- demonstration plant using the Coalcate a reservoir. D con process was selected at New Athens in southern Illinois, in November 1975. No reaction to the current problems could be elicited from 1977 graduates the state of Illinois but a joint statepanies indicate that total employ- ment with ERDA is expected this ment of new graduates will be up 16% week. at both the bachelors and masters According to ERDA, the first phase levels. In engineering fields, demand of the project is limited to conceptual will rise 29% for bachelors, 10% for designs for the demonstration plant. masters. Demand for nonengineer However, Carbide has been congraduates will be up only 11% for ducting laboratory studies for some bachelors, but 18% for masters. Re- ! time and believes that the usual pilot quirements for chemists with bache- plant testing of the process will either lor's degrees will be up about 17%; 30 J be minimal or unnecessary. responding companies indicated Phase II, the detailed design work plans to hire 165 bachelor chemists. I for the demonstration plant, was Last year, 28 companies planned to originally scheduled to begin early in hire 131 bachelor chemists. Figures 1977. The first two phases are being are not available for chemists with funded totally by ERDA. The third master's degrees. (construction) and fourth (operation) Generally, starting salaries will rise phases will be funded equally by 4 to 7% in 1977, Endicott says. On ERDA and Coalcon Co. Carbide is average, engineers will get the highest forming a consortium of companies starting salaries at bachelor levels and government agencies to partici($1242 per month, up 6.6% from 1976) pate in the project. and liberal arts graduates the lowest As now envisioned, the final dem($866, up 3.7%). Starting salaries for onstration plant will convert 2600 bachelor chemists will range from tons per day of Illinois coal to 3900 $850 to $1200, with $1108 the aver- bbl per day of liquid fuels and 22 age—up about 7% from $1032 in million cu ft per day of pipeline 1976. quality gas. Fuels provided by the At the master's level, highest av- plant will be sufficient to power a erage starting salaries will go to 400-Mw electricity generating facility. MBA's with a technical B.S. ($1476, The Coalcon demonstration plant will up 6.3%), followed by engineers be the first module, which can later be ($1430, up 5.6%). Graduates in "other replicated, possibly in the 1980's, to technical fields" will receive $1315, process 15,000 tons per day of Illinois I up 6.1%. • I coal. •