THE CHEMICAL WORLD THIS WEEK
view of neutral science done for its own sake. "But," he adds, "how far can society afford to indulge it?" He cautions that "recognizable per formance" from science will be neces sary for the public support upon which science largely rests. NASA Administrator Thomas Paine had to land at the Boston airport in blizzard conditions to present the AAAS attendees with his view of the next decade in the vastness beyond the earth. Declaring an end to the era of "the Olympic Games of Space" between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R., Dr. Paine cites three major objectives likely in the next 10 years. The first is a change from feats of flying to feats of exploration, involving a permanent manned laboratory cir cling the earth. The two other aims are a 90c,;c reduction in the cost of rocketing a payload into orbit—from $500 to $50 per pound—and the avail ability of nuclear power for propulsion. Dr. Paine also foresees greater interna tional efforts, a low priority for manned flights to Mars, and more useful re sults from space work for the earth. Echoing some of Dr. Paine's senti ments, AAAS president Walter Orr Roberts called for more earth-centered space developments in his address, "After the Moon, the Earth." In the lee of President Nixon's new policy on chemical and biological war fare disclosed in November renouncing all biological weapons, well-known panelists at the AAAS meeting rated the tactical and strategic effects on military capabilities as small. In addi tion, Albert Ε. Η ay ward, assistant di rector in chemical technology at DOD's Defense Research and Engi neering, stated that retaliatory capa bilities would continue to be necessary in chemical weapons for its encumber ing effect on preparation for an attack. From a more independent position, Dr. Ivan L. Bennett, Jr., director of New York University's medical center, agreed with Mr. Hayward's military analysis. However, he added that the adoption at the United Nations of the Swedish resolution to include tear gas and defoliants under the 1925 Geneva Protocol would make matters difficult when President Nixon submits the pro tocol to the Senate for ratification. At worst, the Vietnam issue could be in flamed, because the U.S. uses thou sands of tons of CS tear gas in its military operations there. On the future of the CBW business in the U.S., Dr. Bennett states Foil Dietrick, Md., and Pine Bluff Arsenal, Ark., will probably be made "useful" with completely open nonoffensive re search in the extensive facilities at these bases. 10 C&EN JAN. 5, 1970
ENVIRONMENT:
Watchdog Agency Sen. Edmund S. Muskie's (D.-Me.) call for an "independent, watchdog agency" on the environment comes hard on the heels of Congressional ac tion on a measure that would set up an advisory Council on Environmental Quality in the executive office of the President. The independent agency proposed by Sen. Muskie, in contrast, would have responsibility for developing and implementing federal environmental quality standards, supporting basic re search on environmental problems and control techniques, and providing tech nical assistance to state and local agencies. "I am not talking about a new De partment of Natural Resources or De partment of Conservation," Sen. Muskie said in a speech prepared for delivery at the American Association for the Advancement of Science meet ing in Boston last week. His remarks countered proposals by some in Wash ington who called for including most of the Federal Government's agencies and activities on the environment in a new Department of Natural Re sources and the Environment. The proliferation and overlap of existing federal pollution control and abatement programs are "intolerable." Federal bureaus, divisions, and admin istrations housed in separate depart ments have neither the status nor the manpower to deal with the problems, he added. New staff support provided the Pres ident in the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (sired by Sen. Henry Jackson, D.-Wash.), passed by Congress shortly before the first ses-
Sen. Muskie Protection is not conservation
sion adjourned, and the Water Qual ity Improvement Act of 1969 (sired by Sen. Muskie) now in conference, will not be sufficient either in terms of status or manpower, according to Sen. Muskie. The first measure would give the President a three-member council to assist him in gathering and analyz ing information on the environment as well as in developing environmental policy. It would also assist the Pres ident in preparing an annual Environ mental Quality Report—a sort of status report to Congress. The environ mental policy act also includes a broad statement of national environmental policy and directs that all federal agencies comply with that policy. Sen. Muskie's bill would create an Office of Environmental Quality, which would mesh with the council as an integrated agency in the office of the President. The council would operate on a policy level, whereas the Office of Environmental Quality would operate on a staff level. The Office of Environmental Quality would also provide staff support to the President and his cabinet-level Environmental Quality Council.
OUTLOOK:
Execs Cautious Chemical executives begin the new year in a pensive mood. Caution lights are flashing in every direction and in a few spots economic and political signals spell outright trouble. Ted Doan, president of Dow Chem ical, warns that controlling inflation without causing serious business set backs is one of the biggest domestic problems. Repeal of the investment tax credit may be "politically palat able" but this move will feed rather than fight inflation, he adds. Mr. Doan says that a slowup in con struction would, on the surface, appear to be deflationary, but that "encourag ing new plants with higher produc tivity would certainly in the long run do a better job of helping to fight in flation and would put the country in a better fundamental economic posi tion." The tone of other executives at year end is also one of concern for the over all economy and for the fortunes of their industry. Charles B. McCoy, president of Du Pont, says that the long-term outlook is excellent but that 1970 will be a challenging year, as the anti-inflation efforts of the Government act as a brake on the economy. Although most executives and econ omists are predicting a plateau in economic growth for the first six months of the year and a rebound in the latter half of the year, Mr. McCoy is more cautious. "The timing of re-
Chemical shipments will increase in value by 6% in 1970 and 7% each year in 1971-75 Commodity
0 I
Value of shipments (millions of dollars) 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 I I ·
Total (millions of dollars)1 1969: $49,500 1970: $52,500 1975: $74,000
' Includes chemical commodities not listed above Source: BDSA estimates
1969^
Additional shipments: 1970
Economic forecasts for the new year and the new decade are being watched with more than usual interest for signs of a slowdown in rising inflation and production levels. At least for the chemicals and allied products industry, steady growth is predicted through 1975, according to the 1970 edition of "U.S. Industrial Outlook" released last week by the Department of Commerce's Business and Defense Services Administration (BDSA). The value of chemicals shipments is expected to be $52.5 billion in 1970, up 6 % from 1969. This matches the growth rate from 1968 to 1969 but fails to come up to performance in the 1963-68 period when shipments increased in value at an average annual rate of 8 % . However, BDSA foresees shipments increasing at an average annual rate of 7 % between 1971 and 1975 to reach $74 billion by mid-decade. The U.S. economy as a whole is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 7 % to give a $1.4 trillion gross national product in 1975. (All BDSA estimates for 1 9 7 0 75 include an annual increase in values of about 4 % due to inflation.) In terms of growth rates for chemicals and allied prod-
newed economic expansion is far from certain/* he explains, "and may not occur until late in 1970. Meanwhile, the cost-price squeeze continues." Birny Mason, Jr., chairman of the board of Union Carbide, says he does not expect the effects of the slowdown to be either severe or long lasting. He explains that the company's forecast for the year as a whole calls for slower but continued growth. William Driver, president of Manufacturing Chemists Association, in a statement on the status of the U.S. chemical industry, says that 1970 will be one of the most economically uncertain in recent history. Influencing factors are matters of inflation, recession, tight money, foreign trade, taxation, and government regulations—all
1975
ucts, industrial gases have the most promising outlook. BDSA estimates that the value of industrial gas shipments has increased by 7 % in 1969 to $653 million; and will climb 1 0 % in 1970 to $715 million. Average annual growth rate through 1975 for high-purity oxygen will be 1 5 % ; nitrogen, 1 5 % ; and argon, 2 0 % . Value of drug industry shipments grew at an average annual rate of 8 % during the 1960's reaching a level of $6.13 billion in 1969. For 1970, and continuing through 1975, BDSA predicts growth rates averaging 9 % . One of the fastest growing segments of the basic chemical industry is the category "other industrial organic chemicals," which includes petrochemicals. BDSA estimates that shipments value increased 1 1 % in 1969 to $8.2 billion and will grow by 8 % each year through 1975. Exports represent about 8 % of total shipments but are expected to grow more slowly as European petrochemical capacity expands in the mid-seventies. Shipments of cyclic intermediates, dyes, and pigments increased 1 0 % in 1969 to reach an estimated value of $1.98 billion. The growth rate is expected to drop to 7 % in 1970 and to continue at that level through 1975.
emphasizing that the need for sound managerial judgment may never be more pressing. He adds that the industry as a whole remains optimistic of improving both sales and profit margins. However, industry is more conservative in its outlook for 1970 than it was for 1969. Mr. Driver concludes that two generalizations can be made: For one, a mini-recession can be expected in the first part of 1970. For another, the image of the industry in investment circles will remain weak. Executives say that they expect heavy increases in cost and are dedicated to reviewing all aspects of the situation. An MCA survey indicates that 85% of respondents see an increase of 5% or more in labor costs.
Other chief executives, however, inject a note of optimism. For example, Thomas B. Nantz, president of B. F. Goodrich Chemical, says sales of domestically produced polyvinyl chloride should hit 2.73 billion pounds in 1970, and that by the end of 1971, the company's oxyhydrochlorination and vinyl technology will be used in worldwide facilities accounting for about 407^ of the Free World's 6 million metric-ton-a-year vinyl chloride capacity. George R. Vila, chairman and president of Uniroyal, Inc., says sales of rubber and plastic products will increase $1 billion to $17.5 billion in 1970. The automobile industry, for instance, will use about 100 pounds of plastics per car this year. JAN. 5, 1970 C&EN
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