prices. Earnings in the third and fourth quarters should increase." For the full fiscal 1975 year, IMC is anticipating earnings roughly doubled from the 1974 fiscal year. The combined results of agricultural and other chemical markets have upset traditional rankings of the top chemical companies in earnings performance. In 1973, Du Pont had 85% more aftertax net income than its newest rival, Union Carbide. In 1974, both Carbide and Dow Chemical exceeded Du Pont's diminished earnings by wide margins. Union Carbide's and Dow's profit margins also exceeded Du Pont's, long tops in the industry. Despite the enormous earnings reported by these and other companies for 1974, corporate cash is being generated at a reduced rate because of the fourth quarter. This and the state of the economy have prompted some sec-
ond thoughts on the heavy pace of plant expansion originally planned for this year. Both Du Pont and Union Carbide mention possible construction delays to put plants on stream closer to projected upswings in demand. When will chemical demand growth turn up again? The product to watch may be synthetic fibers. Some producers believe a pickup in this area may precede the consensus pickup expected in the general economy in the second half of the year. At loss-ridden Akzona, chairman Claude Ramsey says that the present inventory adjustment phase of the fiber industry should be completed in the second quarter with consequent better operating results for American Enka, Akzona's fiber arm. If this turns out to be true, the chemical industry may get a spring thaw instead of a summer rally. William F. Fallwell, C&EN New York
p-Xylene makers undaunted by fiber slump p-Xylene producers are a fearless lot. The slump that has plagued the textile industry for at least the past six months finally is catching up to them. It has worked its way back through polyester fibers, to dimethyl terephthalate (DMT) and terephthalic acid, and now is looking p-xylene producers square in the eye. 1975 doesn't figure- to be one of their better years. In fact, producers will do well even to match last year's record output of p-xylene. Yet, despite the dismal near-term outlook, several p-xylene producers are going ahead with expansion plans that will amost double industry capacity by 1977. Just how much of this new capacity will be needed by then will depend largely upon how fast and how far the
polyester market rebounds. Even assuming that polyesters chalk up a 15% average annual growth rate through 1978, which appears optimistic, p-xylene producers may be stuck with at least 1 billion lb of excess capacity by then. More than likely, some producers will scrap old, uneconomical units to bring the excess capacity down to more reasonable levels. The p-xylene expansion sweepstakes already has started. Just last month, Exxon Chemical USA brought on stream an addition to its Baytown, Tex., plant that doubled rated capacity there to 400 million lb per year. Later in the year, probably around August, Amoco Chemicals will complete a 450 million lb-per-year addition to its
This year's p-xylene output probably will fall short of 1974 record . . .
present 300 million lb p-xylene capacity at Texas City, Tex. Amoco will strengthen its position as the country's leading producer of the chemical by building a giant 860 million lb plant at Decatur, Ala., where it already has an estimated 350 million lb of p-xylene capacity. To provide feedstock for the Decatur complex, Amoco's parent company—Standard Oil (Ind.)—is adding new units at its Whiting, Ind., refinery to recover mixed xylenes. It will move the mixed xylene stream from Whiting to Decatur though a 500-mile pipeline that it also is building. When the Decatur expansion is completed in 1977, Amoco will have just under 2 billion lb of p-xylene capacity, based on estimates of present plant size at Decatur and Texas City. The company, however, claims that its p-xylene capability will be 2.4 billion lb per year when all expansions are completed. Undoubtedly, Amoco is gearing up its capacity to meet the needs of its present DMT and PTA (purified terephthalic acid) plants and the huge 1 billion lb-per-year PTA plant that it plans to build "somewhere in the Southeast." Shortly after Amoco announced that it would build the new PTA plant, other DMT producers started cutting back production in the face of the polyester fiber slump. The big question was whether Amoco would really go ahead with its ambitious expansion plan. "We definitely are going ahead with it," says an Amoco spokesman. Environmental and engineering studies are well under way. "We expect to announce a plant site within the next few weeks," the spokesman adds. Hercules is another company that's undaunted by the poor near-term prospects in the p-xylene/terephthalate/ polyester chain. It is teaming up with
. . . but producers are continuing to {msh ahead with major expansion plans
Millions of lb
millions of lb p*r year
Capacity IW^4 JS77
Millions of tii per year
Capacity 1971
2500
AMOCO CHEMICALS Texas City, Test,* Decatur, Ala.**
300 750 350 1210
HERCOR Guayanilla ©ay, p.a,
$25
2000
ARCO CHEMICALS Houston, Tex.
1500
CHARTER CHEMICALS Houston, Tex.
1000
CHEVRON CHEMICAL Pascagoula, Miss. Richmond, Calif,
300
300 15
300 100
300 100
35
35
EXXON CHEMICALS USA Baytown, Tex.c 200
400
CITIES SERVICE Lake Charles, La. 500
0^ 1965
66
67
68.
69
70
71
72
73
aC&Er^ estimates. Source: U.S. International Trade Commission
10
C&EN Feb. 10, 1975
74a
75 "
PHILLIPS PUERTO RICO CORE Guayama, M L * , 75 470 SHELL Houston, Tex.
15
525
100
100
ST/ CROIX PETROCHEMICAL St. Croix, Virgin Islands6 0 600 SUN OIL Corpus Christi, Tex.
300
300
TENNECO Chalmette, La.
125
125
TOTAL
2725 5230
b fc plant ph a Adding 450 million lb by August 1975. b New 860 mjljion lb to be completed by 1977. c Doubled "* ')led ccapacity effective January 1975. d New 470 million lb unit will replace existing * ** ng plant in 1977.
