Because of their flexibility and their economics vs. carbon disulfide plants, perchloroethylene-carbon tetrachloride plants should win out in the race for whatever carbon tetrachloride markets exist in 1979. One market researcher believes that, by then, all but one carbon disulfide plant will have to shut down. He figures that the 300 million lb carbon tetrachloride plant jointly owned by FMC and Allied Chemical at South Charleston, W.Va., could remain on stream to satisfy captive requirements. However, the plant's output would be reduced to about 100 million lb. Swing plant operators, however, would adjust their carbon tetrachloride-perchloroethylene ratios so that they would be capable of producing about 400 million lb of carbon tetrachloride. The resulting 500 million lb of capacity will be more than adequate to handle the 412 million lb carbon tetrachloride market (310 million lb in chlorofluorocarbons and 102 million lb in miscellaneous markets) in 1979 if the chlorofluorocarbon ban becomes a reality. Of course, if chlorofluorocarbons remain on the aerosol scene, all bets are off. Both the swing plants and the carbon disulfide plants will continue operating pretty much as they have been. Meanwhile, all carbon tetrachloride producers are trying to figure out what the last half of 1975 holds in store for them. The consensus is that it will not be bright. Through the first five months of 1975, carbon tetrachloride production held up remarkably well. Output, according to the International Trade Commission, was 405 million lb, down an insignificant 2% from the first five months of last year. This despite the fact that production of fluorocarbons 11 and 12 was only 336 million lb during the first five months, which is 20% lower than last year. The explanation lies not in the market, however; it lies in inventories. Carbon tetrachloride producers came out of 1974 with their inventories depleted. Production last year was held back by a shortage of raw materials, particularly chlorine. Inventories were drained to meet demand. Producers spent the first part of this year replenishing their stocks. But carbon tetrachloride inventories now are at or are approaching adequate levels. Second-half production will not have inventories to fall back on. Most producers agree that there will be little or no demand pickup in the chlorofluorocarbon market. As a result, carbon tetrachloride output for the year 1975 will be lucky to hit 900 million lb. It could be somewhat less. That's a far cry from last year's 1.13 billion lb. But carbon tetrachloride producers would be willing to settle for it if they were told that their aerosol markets would not be taken from them. Earl V. Anderson, C&ENNew York
Phosphate faces glut, other fertilizers okay Three fertilizer forecasters offered a mixed bag of five-year prognostications at the Tennessee Valley Authority Fertilizer Conference, held late last month in Louisville in conjunction with the Fertilizer Institute's annual trade fair. TVA economist Edwin A. Harre warns phosphate producers that they face the danger of glut for the rest of the decade. Agrico president John F. Babbitt Jr. predicts a near-term shortage of nitrogen products, then a couple of years of surplus, and a generally balanced market in 1980. Potash will be in reasonably good supply and demand balance for the entire period, says Dean R. Gidney, executive vice president, Potash Co. of America. The magic word "shortage" once again has lured the phosphate industry—including rock producers—into a potentially serious oversupply situation, Harre says. There has been little increase in rock production since 1968. Growing demand was satisfied from excess inventories that built up during the late 1960's. When producers realized the need for more capacity, they found a long waiting line for equipment. Rock production lagged behind expansions in phosphoric acid capacity. With the tight supply, world prices rose sixfold in less than a year. But producers have underestimated the "elasticity of supply," according to Harre. "There will soon be more than enough phosphate rock capacity to meet world demand," he believes. By 1980, if all scheduled additions are realized, there will be more than 190 million metric tons of rock capacity in operation worldwide, up more than 50% from 1973 levels. In the U.S., rock capacity would grow to 75 million metric tons by 1980, a 60% increase from 1973. Should domestic market growth continue at its current 5% per year, U.S. rock demand would exceed 45 million tons by 1980—leaving well over 20 million tons to export to bring supply and demand into equilibrium. But with some of their traditional customers having access to other sources of rock, U.S. producers will face stiff competition in the export market in the next few years. Prospects for finished phosphate fertilizers are certainly no better, maybe worse. If all plans materialize, Harre says, total U.S. capacity could exceed 10 million tons as P 2 0 5 by 1980. Depending on the assumptions made, total U.S. demand could range from 5.2 million to 6.8 million tons by then. "It's apparent that the U.S. will have more than enough capacity to meet even the most optimistic of future use estimates," the TVA economist comments, adding that the surplus could exceed 2.3 million tons as early as 1976. Future supply estimates usually overstate the case, Harre concedes, because they ignore the effects of the
market place. With significant oversupply, some building programs will be delayed or canceled, and older plants may be phased out of production. However, the best solution to the problem of oversupply is to stimulate demand and find new outlets for products, Harre says, adding that "the world market is naturally the first place to look." But, he warns, the U.S. faces a decline in its share of world phosphoric acid capacity. By 1980, scheduled world capacity will exceed 32 million metric tons as P2O5, a 70% increase over the 1973 level. With a 50% gain currently projected for the same period in North America, that region's share of the world market will drop from 35% in 1973 to just over 31% in 1980. Also, the U.S. has, over the
World phosphate supply could grow well ahead of demand Mil
Poteau*! supply for fertHteer 35
30
Demand lor fertiliser 25
20 15 4 1970 71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
Source: Tennessee Valley Authority
years, exported large amounts of phosphate fertilizers to the developing regions of the world. Now these regions are planning significant increases in their own capacity. By 1980, if currently scheduled projects are completed, they will be very close to producing most of their phosphate requirements. Thus, Harre concludes, the outlook for large-scale expansion of U.S. exports of finished phosphate products as a way of balancing supply and demand isn't promising. According to Agrico's Babbitt, the coming season will bring a nitrogen shortage "of potentially major proporAugust18, 1975 C&EN
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80
We can help you more because we've had more Ethyl's experience in aluminum alkyls goes back to the beginning-some 15 years ago when their remarkable capabilities in catalysis and synthesis were discovered. But the pyrophoric nature of these compounds deterred commercial use. So we brought to bear our long background in organometallic chemistry. We invented a manufacturing process for certain aluminum alkyls along with developing safe, routine ways to use, store and handle them commercially-showed our customers how, too. All of this has made Ethyl Corporation the largest producer, and given us the knowhow to offer customers the broadest range of engineering services available today. From original plant design, right through to handling facilities and employee training. WE HELP YOU AVOID MISTAKES IN PLANT DESIGN. We've helped many producers reduce costs while designing facilities for handling aluminum alkyls. The important thing is to bring Ethyl in right at the beginning of your planning.
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C&EN August 18, 1975
Whether you are in the polyolefin business or are interested in using aluminum alkyls in organic synthesis, Ethyl is ready and qualified to help you. In fact, Ethyl literally wrote the book on aluminum alkyls in organic synthesis. You can send for it and the updating supplement by checking the appropriate box in the coupon.
SAFE, EFFICIENT HANDLING. WELL SHOW YOU HOW. Aside from their pyrophoric nature, aluminum alkyls have physical properties similar to many common chemicals. They are non-corrosive, mobile liquids with relatively low vapor pressures. So that after you institute proper operating procedures and safety precautions, you'll
with aluminum alkyls, experience than anyone else. find these compounds can be handled as routinely in your plant as other liquid hydrocarbons. Whether you're planning a new unit, or revising or expanding your present one, get Ethyl in on the design stage of the project. Here's what we can do: • Help design facilities for unloading, storage, transfer and use. • Train your employees in safe handling procedures. • Give field demonstrations on the pyrophoric characteristics and fire control. • Provide technical data and physical properties of products. • Instruct in recommended sampling procedures, analytical methods and laboratory techniques. • Provide samples of noncommercial organometallic products. You'll get a better idea of what's involved by sending the coupon for our new completely revised booklet "Aluminum Alkyls-Shipping, Handling, and Safety." AT LAST, A REALLY CONVENIENT ALUMINUM ALKYL SAMPLE CONTAINER. For years, people working with sample quantities of aluminum alkyls have been struggling with the unwieldy "lecture bottle'.' Now Ethyl has developed a radically new shipping container designed expressly for this service. Called the "Alkyltainer,"* it offers both safety and convenience for any aluminum alkyl, whether neat or in solution.
OUR INVOLVEMENT IS CONFIDENTIAL Obviously, the services we perform involve aspects of your operation where utmost confidentiality must be preserved. Be assured that any information you give us will be accepted as a trust. (As it always has with our customers in the past.) Contact us for complete details on the many ways we might work together successfully.
PRODUCT OUT
NjIN
Here are its features: • "Bumped back" bottom permits standing without clamps, etc. • Novel "closure" permits any method of product removal, including a dip-leg (available from Ethyl). • Operating pressure of 1800 psi (meets D O T 3AA1800) will withstand pressure resulting from total decomposition of product. No worry about ruptures in laboratories or stockrooms, or about safety valves. • Container shipped in polystyrene foam crate. Your Ethyl Representative can now take orders for Alkyltainers containing the aluminum alkyl of your choice.
D Please mail "Organic Synthesis" book and supplement. D Mail supplement only. I have the original publication. • Please mail new "Handling Procedures For Aluminum Alkyl Compounds." Name. Title_ CompanyAddress City State_
_Zip_
Phone No..
Ethyl Corporation Industrial Chemicals Division I
ETHYL TOWER, 451 FLORIDA, BATON ROUGE, LOUISIANA 70801
•Trademark of Ethyl Corporation
August 18, 1975 C&EN
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12
C&EN August 18, 1975
tions." Last year, despite record ammonia production, diversion of industrial ammonia to fertilizer uses, and significant imports, "we just barely scraped by." This year, "we'll probably be short about 800,000 tons of industrial ammonia." Also, imports are expected to drop 50%. Gas companies predict curtailments of 3.74 trillion cu ft, 41% worse than last year—and that assumes a mild winter. "All this means we should have less total nitrogen available than last year—perhaps a lot less," Babbitt warns. From a price standpoint, he adds, the season may start slow, as certain secondary ammonia positions are reduced. "But this should change; nitrogen will be at a premium later in the winter." Farther ahead, Babbitt sees new plants in the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and the Caribbean boosting total North American ammonia capacity by 9.3 million tons. He notes, however, that about 1.5 million tons of planned new U.S. capacity "doesn't have its feedstock of natural gas pinned down yet." On the basis of Agrico's demand estimates, "We will be short of nitrogen through the 1976-77 season, have a surplus through 1979, then be fairly close to a balanced position in 1980." Worldwide, an overall deficiency in nitrogen production will continue until mid-1977. But by 1980 there will be a world surplus over demand of about 900,000 metric tons as N. That number is insignificant, compared to an expected 72 million metric tons of total nitrogen capacity, Babbitt comments, "but doggone substantial if it's in your immediate sales area." Predicted U.S.S.R. and East European surpluses should be watched carefully, because of "the possibility of political motivation which could dump or withdraw large quantities of ammonia into or out of world trade," he adds. Potash Co.'s Gidney notes the pitfalls of forecasting: "As late as March 1975 some industry people were talking of a worldwide potash shortage of as much as 800,000 product tons." But with farm prices down and fertilizer prices up, many farmers cut back on fertilizer application. Also, the weather was bad in many parts of the world. The predicted shortage didn't occur; in fact, there was a 7 to 8% decline in potash use, and inventories are up. "Once again," Gidney comments, "as in the early 1960's, we confused 'need' with 'demand.' " Nevertheless, Gidney sees a reasonably balanced market for potash through 1980. Despite the 1974-75 setback, the upward trend should resume this year. "Since there is no new production on the immediate horizon, and since the Saskatchewan producers aren't producing at rated capacities, potash once again may be in short supply in 1975-76. Even if demand doesn't grow as anticipated, there should be no great surplus." Ward Worthy, C&EN Chicago
CHECKOFF NEW PLANTS
• Cellulose sponge—Rebuilding planned by Du Pont by early 1976 for sponge manufacturing facility in Columbia, Tenn., extensively damaged by fire July 3; decision termed "difficult" but influenced by local support. • Mercaptans—Second unit planned by Pennwalt with unspecified capacity at Beaumont, Tex., to be completed during first-quarter 1977. • Methionine hydroxy analog —Multimillion-dollar doubling of capacity planned by Du Pont at Beaumont, Tex., to be completed during second half of 1977; product used in poultry feed. • Pigments—Two-phase $10 million expansion planned by American Hoechst for azo pigments at Coventry, R.I.; first phase to about double capacity of most normal azo pigments in yellow, orange, and red areas with on-stream target of April 1976; second phase to expand more sophisticated azo pigments with April 1977 onstream date. • Salt—Expansion and modernization program to cost $2.5 million planned by Diamond Crystal Salt at St. Clair, Mich., refinery; granulated salt capacity to be increased 33% with completion in mid-1977. • Sodium methylate—Expansion planned by Olin to increase capacity 45% for dry form at Niagara Falls, N.Y., by fourth-quarter 1976; product, in short supply, used as catalyst and intermediate. PLANTS COMPLETED
• Ammonia—By Williams Cos. at Verdigris near the Tulsa port of Catoosa, Okla.; capacity includes 425,000 tons per year of ammonia and 700,000 tons per year of nitrogen solutions. • Fertilizer terminal—$2.5 million distribution terminal to be opened by W. R. Grace in Greenville, Ohio; in fall 1975. • Mercaptans—By Pennwalt at Beaumont, Tex.; $10 million plant to produce initially meJiyl and ethyl mercaptans for rapidly growing market; plant doubles company's unspecified worldwide capacity for organic sulfur chemicals.
