every year in the U.S. Subclinical cases, when added to the total, may boost annual incidence to about 150,000 cases yearly. Medical researchers have established that the agent of hepatitis can be transmitted by the transfusion of whole blood plasma, or plasma components. Transfusion of blood or derivatives containing hepatitis-associated antigen (HAA) results in a high rate of clinical hepatitis correlated with the appearance of the antigen in the serum of recipients. During the past two years the identification of hepatitis associated antigen has led to development of a number of effective screening tests to identify hepatitis-contaminated blood and to exclude it from patients. But these tests will not eliminate the threat of serum hepatitis since only about 25% of bloods containing hepatitis-associated antigen can be identified and excluded from medical use. Nevertheless, thousands of cases and hundreds of deaths could be prevented annually by the use of presently available tests. Spectra's reagent is based on a reaction between hepatitis-associated antigen in the blood of infected donors and plasma containing antibodies directed against the antigen. The American Red Cross has signed a contract with the firm for use of the counterelectrophoresis equipment and licensed reagent to begin testing all blood collected through its 59 regional centers for hepatitis. In addition, the Red Cross is organizing a drive to increase the number of volunteer blood donors. The risk of hepatitis from volunteer donors is about Vio t n a t from commercial donors. CHEMICAL INDUSTRY:
Profitability not growth The big problem facing the chemical industry in the 1970's is not one of growth but rather of profitability, says Patricia Noble, editor of "Marketing Guide to the Chemical Industry/' published by C. H. Kline & Co. and released at a press conference in New York City last week. Growth will come, with sales doubling to $74.5 billion in 1980, from $35.8 billion in 1969. That, at least, is Kline & Co.'s estimate. In the search for improved profits, according to Miss Noble, tradi-
I slowly. Growth in synthetic elastomers should settle at about 4% a year, the guide says. Man-made fiAverage yearly bers made enormous gains in the Product line growth (per cent) market for natural fibers in the 1960's, obtaining a 56.4% share of Plastics and total mill consumption in 1969 synthetic resins 7.9% compared to only 28.7% in 1960. Synthetic elastomers 4.0 This penetration rate will be more Man-made fibers 6.1 moderate in the 1970's, with average growth in man-made fibers forecast Fertilizers 6.8 at 6.1% per year. Pesticides 9.0 Fertilizer sales will grow at an average rate of 6.8% annually, Miss Organics 8.1 Noble says. But up to one third of Inorganics 4.3 this dollar growth simply will be Source: Charles H. Kline Co., Inc. recovery from the extreme deterioration that occurred in prices in the tional chemical companies are mov- 1960's. Pesticides sales are exing increasingly toward differ- pected to grow at about 9% a year. entiated products—typically specialty areas where one producer's PIPING: product can be distinguished from Dramatic cost saving another's. Piping design and fabrication are The chemical industry will certainly maintain a high rate of hardly the stuff that add up to growth over the next several drama in the chemical industry. decades, the Kline group says. Al- But when piping takes $2.5 million though synthetics have substantially of say $10 million for a chemical replaced many natural materials— processing unit, it becomes imporfor example, dyes, botanical drugs, tant for the costing department. manure, mineral pigments, rubber, Now Du Pont has added an elesoaps, flavors, and fragrances—they ment of the dramatic to the dull computer-aided pipe have only partially replaced such topic—its materials as fibers, metals, glass, sketching (CAPS) system can cut fats and oils, and leather. Synthet- costs of piping in that $10 million ics also will compete eventually plant by 30%. with such high-volume, low-cost maThe system, basically a complex terials as wood, paper, fuel, animal computer program, is now being feeds, and foods. marketed by Du Pont's division of Between 1969 and 1980, Kline & industrial training, company offiCo. says, dollar shipments of the en- cials disclosed at last week's meettire industry should grow at an ing of the American Institute of average rate of close to 7.0% a year Chemical Engineers in Houston, compared to 7.5% between 1954 and Tex. The package of program, man1969. This slight slowdown, according to Kline's market guide, will be uals, and training for personnel due largely to synthetics' having al- costs $100,000. The program (availready approached saturation of able on disk, tape, or cards) rethe markets for some natural ma- quires an IBM 360, Series 40 comterials. For example, synthetic sur- puter, or a larger computer. All infactants now account for 84% of the formation is licensed by Du Pont on market for all soaps and detergents, a nonexclusive basis and will be inand synthetic elastomers for 77% stalled at a computer location of the of all new rubber consumed an- buyer's choice. nually. The CAPS system contains a data In physical volume, the guide bank of piping specifications, standsays, plastics materials and syn- ards (ASA or DIN), sizes, and perthetic resins will continue to be one tinent economic factors that could of the highest-growth areas in the influence choice of piping hardware next decade. Large opportunities or fabrication methods, says I. D. still exist for synthetic substitutes Brown of Du Pont. Other information put into the for wood, metals, and paper, particularly in construction and engi- computer memory specific to the neering. Dollar growth, however, process unit under construction inwill average only 7.9% per year be- cludes specifications and geography of the plant, and details of vessels cause of continued price erosion. Other polymers will grow more I and other equipment. To this deCPI sales growth will average 7% per year through 1970's
MARCH 8, 1971 C&EN 11
Chemical world This week tailed input is added description of specific pipelines. With this information and pro gram, the computer selects and specifies details of the plant piping and provides information to a plot ter. The resulting sketch may not necessarily be to scale, Mr. Brown points out, because the program can either lengthen or shorten any part of the line to aid clarity. The computer also rotates orientation of each sketch into four quadrants, checking each, and selecting the best perspective as the one for printing. The system provides a set of cards specifying pipe lengths, details of welds, and other information for di rect use in the fabrication shop. Al lowances for gaskets and welds are automatically deducted from the di mensioned pipe. Material require ments on a variety of bases—entire project, single sketch, or selected parts or batches of sketches—are summarized. Statistics on various aspects of piping design, procure ment, and performance are avail able.
C&EN: Ray Rakow
NACA's Brinkley
plied only by a licensed or certified applicator. Environmentally haz ardous materials would require a permit from a state agency. NACA recommends substituting stop sale authority for the recall provision in the Administration bill for pesticides found an imminent hazard. However, if a pesticide's PESTICIDES: registration is suspended and it's NACA wants new laws found in a review proceeding that This week the National Agricultural the product does comply with fed Chemicals Association will recom eral law, then NACA proposes that mend several changes to the Admin the registrant have the statutory istration's proposed pesticide legis right to sue the Federal Govern lation, H.R. 4152, at House Commit ment for damages resulting from tee on Agriculture hearings. Even the suspension. so, Parke Brinkley, NACA president, If, on the other hand, a pesticide says that "the agricultural chem registration is canceled even though icals industry is generally in sup the manufacturer complied with all port of much of this needed legis registration requirements, NACA lation/' will recommend to the subcommit Mr. Brinkley and Richard Well- tee that the pesticide registrant be man, vice' president and general eligible in the new law for indem manager of the process chemicals nity by the Government for the cost division of Union Carbide and of inventory, its disposal, and any NACA board chairman, plan to rec undepreciated capital expense. ommend to the subcommittee that NACA also wants pesticide reg pesticides be registered in either a ulatory policy on a benefit-risk ba general or restricted category and sis and federal pre-emption in that use or sale of a pesticide con pesticide registration. trary to its labeling be made illegal. Pesticides registered in the NACA BONE CANCER: general category could be sold to anyone with a restriction that la N-radiography a help bel directions be followed. When a surgeon decides to remove The restricted classification a section of bone from a cancer pa would be subdivided into a highly tient, more often than not he faces toxic category—those pesticides an agonizing dilemma. If he cuts with acute dermal or inhalation away too much healthy bone along toxicity to man—and into an envi with the diseased part, he magni ronmentally hazardous materials fies unnecessarily the extent of the category, which would probably in cosmetic surgery that follows. On clude DDT, aldrin, and dieldrin. the other hand, should cancerous Highly toxic pesticides could be ap- cells remain in the patient's bone, 12 C&EN MARCH 8, 1971
they will continue to grow and spread, giving rise ultimately to the need for additional surgery. Now, η-radiography promises to provide surgeons with a valuable tool to determine rapidly and ac curately the presence of soft tissue tumor within osseous (bone) speci mens, notes Dr. Philip J. Boyne, pro fessor of oral surgery at the Uni versity of California, Los Angeles, school of dentistry. Indeed, results of studies that he and his collabora tor, Dr. William L. Whittemore, a nuclear physicist at Gulf General Atomic in San Diego, Calif., are en gaged in, point to the desirability of η-radiographic facilities' being within easy reach of a hospital's sur gical staff, preferably within the building complex itself. N-radiography is somewhat akin to x-radiography except that it en tails a beam of collimated thermal neutrons with an inherent energy ranging from zero to 0.3 e.v. strik ing the object under study, Dr. Whit temore explains. Unlike x-rays, however, neutrons are absorbed or scattered by the atomic nuclei of the elements instead of interacting with the electron clouds of the atoms they encounter. The useful ness of n-radiography in bone can cer studies is keyed to the relatively high degree of interaction that hy drogen atoms exhibit for neutrons, since cancerous bone tissue is char acterized by high hydrogen content. In what they believe to be the first effective use of n-radiography for this type of analysis, Dr. Boyne and Dr. Whittemore examined a portion of the mandible taken from an ameloblastoma (a tumor affect ing dental tissues) patient [Oral Surg., Oral Med. Oral Path., 31, 2, 152 (1971)]. The tumor mass ex tending through the surrounding bone clearly shows up in the n-radiograph. "More important, signif icant invasion of the tumor, which had not produced sufficient bone destruction to be visible by routine x-ray views, was revealed," they note. And the n-radiography run it self took only a few minutes com pared to about two weeks normally needed for a histological study. In their current research, Dr. Boyne and Dr. Whittemore use a Gulf General Atomic TRIGA reac tor as the neutron source. But nradiography will likely become a routine screening technique as more medical facilities install their own I atomic reactors.
