cause of the shutdowns, tending to hold up prices of these chemicals. Based on average relative coproduct output rates for all U.S. steam crackThe 2 cent-per-lb drop in the price ers, 22.5 million lb of butadiene and of ethylene widely forecast for July 75 million lb of propylene capacity apparently will not take place. In- will be taken out of production bestead, the price likely will remain cause of shutdowns during July. firm because of production declines Inventories of ethylene can rethis month—and possibly through- place lost production this month and out the third quarter—resulting longer. At the end of March, more from plant shutdowns for planned than 2.2 billion lb of ethylene was in maintenance and from accidents. inventory, up from less than 1.7 bilLast month, forecasts of lower eth- lion lb a year ago, according to the ylene prices—to 30 cents a lb from Petrochemical Survey of the Nationthe June price of about 32 c e n t s - al Petroleum Refiners Association. were heard as demand for several Bruce Greek derivatives (especially polymers) appeared to weaken. For example, an expected boost in exports of derivatives, notably to China, has failed to materialize. In fact, since late last year, exports to China have declined. And in the U.S., demand for ethyl- Although most scientists have writene derivatives has been growing ten off electrochemically induced more slowly than a year ago, while nuclear fusion as an embarrassing production and inventories, at least mistake, General Electric Co., a maduring the first quarter of this year, jor builder of nuclear reactors, has have remained high. publicly agreed to join the UniverDuring July, about 8% of U.S. sity of Utah in a cooperative effort to nameplate ethylene capacity will be study and develop the "cold fusion" shut down for at least part of the phenomenon discovered at Utah. month. Quantum Chemical's plant GE's role in the agreement inat Morris, 111., will be down the volves helping Utah pursue patent entire month as a result of a fire protection for any technology that (C&EN, June 19, page 13). This, results from what the university along with five other companies' calls its "research breakthrough in steam crackers slated to be down solid state fusion." James J. Brophy, for various periods this month, takes vice president for research at Utah, the annual equivalent of more than says the agreement will give the 3 billion lb of ethylene capacity out university the important benefit of of production in July, according to GE's recognized expertise in nationJohn R. Hodson, who heads a Hous- al and international patent law. ton-based consulting firm, Hodson & Co. He estimates that in-place U.S. ethylene capacity now totals more than 38 billion lb per year. Capacity will slowly increase throughout the year as a result of process improvement projects, often completed during plant maintenance shutdowns, Hodson notes. Several ethylene units have shutdowns tentatively scheduled for later this year. Maintenance shutdowns typically range from two weeks, when little capacity expansion is done, to eight weeks, when capacity may be expanded as much as 10%. Output of such ethylene coprodu i s as butadiene, propylene, and aromatics also will be reduced beBrophy: GE's patent expertise useful
Plant shutdowns help firm ethylene prices
GE, Utah agree to joint cold fusion effort
Brophy says GE will benefit "by positioning itself at the cutting edge of research in an exciting new area of energy development with the opportunity to license any promising technology." The agreement formalizes a previously confidential arrangement between GE and Utah. Nuclear physicist Martin Deutsch, professor emeritus at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, says he's puzzled why a "reputable" lab like GE's R&D Center in Schenectady, N.Y., would get involved with the Utah fusion work, which he says is "garbage" and has "all the earmarks of a spurious [result]." Deutsch says he wonders why anyone is taking it seriously. GE spokesmen decline to elaborate on the agreement or the thinking behind it. In a brief written statement, the firm notes that "this undertaking does not indicate any confirmation or lack of confirmation by GE of the presence of a fusion process," but does reflect "the importance to humanity" that a proven fusion process might have. Shortly after electrochemists B. Stanley Pons of Utah and Martin Fleischmann of the University of Southampton, U.K., announced on March 23 that they had generated large amounts of heat from deuterium fusion in a simple, tabletop electrolytic cell, hundreds of labs joined the frenzy to reproduce and investigate the surprising claim. But the majority of labs have been unable to find any evidence of cold fusion (C&EN, May 22, page 8). A few labs have measured heat coming from the electrolysis, but none has said that nuclear fusion is involved. Some groups have already published results that dispute the Utah claim. For example, last week Nature published the findings of a joint Yale University-Brookhaven National Laboratory effort to find evidence of cold fusion. The team's negative results, presented earlier at scientific meetings (C&EN, June 5, page 16), raise "serious doubts" about the Utah claim, the researchers say. And an editorial in the same Nature issue dismissed the phenomenon as an "illusion." "I wouldn't say cold fusion is dead, but the mood is pretty negative," says Gerald B. Stringfellow, a July 10, 1989 C&EN
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