Power Resources F. D. CAMPBELL AND A. S. GRISWOLD THE DETROIT EDISON CO., DETROIT, MICH.
F o r t h e East North Central States t h e electric power systems had a generating capacity of 18,000,000 kilowatts a t t h e end of 1952 a n d new generating capacity of 11,000,000 kilowatts scheduled for completion before t h e end of 1956. The present expansion programs are coordinated with t h e anticipated growth of t h e area a n d ensures a n adequate supply of power for domestic, commercial, a n d industrial uses. Careful engineering a n d statistical studies have been made to determine t h e needs of t h e service areas a n d t h e most efficient way to a u g m e n t t h e existing systems. New equipment h a s been ordered a n d scheduled for installation i n accordance with those determinations. Several systems are making, or are participating i n , extensive studies of t h e possibilities of using atomic fuels for t h e generation of power. chemical industry is one of the largest users of electric T;:.er. Its continuous and expanding development of new products and processes that contribute so importantly t o our industrial advancement, our national security, and our standard of living, calls for ever-increasing demands for electric power. It is not only logical but wise that the industry should look into the future to determine whether power resources in the years ahead will be adequate for its growing needs The electric poTver industry follows the same practice in its own field of operation. I t must continually look far ahead and promptly anticipate new and increasing demands for power because the expansion of power producing facilities to meet increased needs is a long term undertaking. Decisions must be made and work started far in advance of the time when the additional power actually will be required. 1
equipment to review existing production schedules for orders on hand and to discuss the open manufacturing capacity available for the production of additional equipment in terms of possible delivery time. This activity includes such major items as steam turbine-generators, steam generators (boilers), hydraulic turbines, generators for hydraulic turbines, and power transformere. The data concerning scheduled production of equipment already on order are of great importance in examining the existing expansion program of the electric poFer systems. Data concerning open manufacturing capacity show at all times the potential possibilities of further expansion both in terms of volume and time. Reports covering the semiannual surveys are published by the Institute and are given wide distribution. The results of the Edison Electric Institute’s semiannual electric power surveys are summarized on the basis of power supply regions as defined by the Federal Power Commission. The boundaries of these regions are established on the basis of territories served by groups of operating systems rather than state lines. Many of the systems serve areas spanning state lines. Also many of the systems are interconnected by transmission lines crossing state boundaries that constitute a network by which power sources in different states may be made available over wide areas beyond respective state lines. The East North Central States, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin, fall into two FPC Supply Regions that also include the following: Iowa M7estViiginia Part of Kentucky Part of Pennsylvania Part of Minnesota Part of Kansas Part of Missouri
EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE SEMIANNUAL POWER SURVEYS
The question of the present and future adequacy of electric Thus, in considering broadly the power resources of the East power in the United States is a matter of special interest and conNorth Central States it is convenient to look at the two FPC cern to the Edison Electric Institute and its Electric Power Regions, of which these states constitute a substantial part. The electric power situation for these two power supply regions Survey Committee. This organization maintains continuous records of all statistics relating to the nation’s power supply, the is shown by the data of Table I for median hydraulic power conditions. Because power supply in these regions is mostly from industry’s program of expansion, and the status of manufacture of thermal sources, adverse hydraulic power conditions have little heavy electric power equipment. In addition, at semiannual intcrvalj, the Electric Power Survey Committee, in conference effect on the total generating capability. In some regions where with the representatives of the power systems throughout the country, conducts surveys to review the existing Table I. Electric Power Operating Data“ power situation and to establish nev (Median Hydraulic Power Conditions) forecasts for the coming years. These Thousands of Kilowattsare based upon the current estimates of 195lb 1952b 1953 1954 1955 1956 the individual power systems rvith reRegions I1 and I\‘ Combined spect to loads, generating capabilities, 32,384 36,188 38,384 25,544 29,632 Capability scheduled 23,968 and energy requirement3 in their respec25,727 27,915 30,534 32,922 21,358 23,075 Peak load tive service areas. 5,654 5,462 3,905 4,639 2,610 2,469 ’ Gross niargjn 1 8 . 5 16.6 1 0 . 7 1 5 . 2 1 6 . 6 Gross margin. B 1 2 . 2 The results of the semiannual surveys Total Continental United States are summarized for the eight power 94,867 107,169 118,182 125,484 76,166 81,388 Capahilitj scheduled supply regions of the country, as defined 99,485 106,563 82,801 92,214 68,139 72,841 Peak load by the Federal Power Commission and 14,955 18,697 18,921 8,547 12,066 8,027 Gloss margin 16.2 18.8 17.8 11.7 14.6 Gross margin, 70 11.8 for the country as a whole. a Statistics fioin Edison Electric Institute, “Thirteenth Semiannual Electric Power Survey-April During the semiannual surveys, con1953.” b 1951 and 1952 represent actual operating data: 1983-56 represent forecasts a s of April 1, 1953. ferences are also held with the nation’s principal manufacturers of heavy power
494
Mamh 1954
INDUSTRIAL AND ENGINEERING CHEMISTRY
Tab10 11. New Generating Capacity Scluddd for Cornnurdal SMim in East North CantraI Statu Year 1865
Unit. 30
TOWCa-ty. Kw. 2.wo.100
a7
2.818.wo
97,000
25
3.5w.000
14o.wo
Avsnys 8i.e of Unit. KW. 87,000
117.000 182.000
hydmgenerating sources predominate, adverse hydraulic power conditiom in the area may have pronounced effecta upon the capability. Ths term "capability," BLI used in Table I, refera to the maximum kilowatt output of the Bystems with all power sources available and with no allowance for outages. Peak load is the maximum !&watt demsnd on the systems. The data given are for -her of each vear because the l m- & loads occur during that month. Gmaa marei0 renreaente the difierence hetween capability and peak load. ~ m - m s r g i othedore, , must prwide fir acheduled maintenance, emergency outages, and system operating requiremanta. The remainder of the mea over and above the provisions for these items is available for unforeseen l o a d e t h a t ia, loads not slready taken into account in the peak load e a t h a t e a . Gmss margin per cent expraaees the groan margin at the time of the peak load in December aa a percentage of that peak load. Table I indicates that the &rose mar&inafor power mpply in the two Regiom under connideration for the y e m 1953 through 19613 are expectsd to be more than 15% which, for a predominantly thermal power area, may be considered to be quite favorable. The combined capability of the electric power systems sewing the two regions represents about 30% of the total for the United Btates. The peak load in these regions is also about 30% of that for the entire United Btates. Conidnow the East North Central States only, the ind e d electric generating capacity aa of December 31, 1952 waa 17,ssO,aoO or '22% of the total for the nation. The new capacity presently ffihedded for completion in the next 4 years (1953-66) totals Il,OZ6,aoO kilowatts aa shown in Table 11. This represents 28% of the total new capacity now seheduled for the country aa a whole during the aame period. A list of the units making up this total is given in Table 111. The total area of the Eaat North Central States is 8.2% of that of theentirecountry and it contgins 20% of the nation's population. It can he concluded, therefore, that the power mpply for this area should be entirely adequate for the period under consideration. Studies of the needs, however, will continue aa in the paat and BLI new requirementa are foreseen, proviaions for supplying them will be promptly undertaken. The expansion of electric power facilities baa been a never-ending prowas, and it probably will continue to be. ~
498
power could be economical 88 compared with heat energy in r coal, if methods of completely utilizing its full potentialities are realied. The utilieation of the heat energy released by nuclear fission ia an extremely di5icult and complex matter, aa compared with utilizing the heat energy of conventional fuels. The heat liberation rate will be very high. In addition, dangemus radiation reeults from nuclear fission. These combine to create metallurgical, heat transfer, safety, and numerous other problems. While the basic science related to these protlema may be !mown, there is much that remains to be determined. &vera1 study &roups are now engaged in intensive invest&tions of bow this heat energy may be utilized on a practical commercial baaia. They have proposed the use of several difierent types of reactore, and their opinions concerning possible methods of financing m e r widely. As yet no nuclear reactor intended for w e in the commemial generation of electric power has been completely designed, and much additional research and development must be done before this can be accomplished. Ekcause of this, there is no real basis for cost and economic comparisons.
Central Illinois Elec. & Gas Co. 8sbmoke3 Bubonville 3 Hubonrille 4 Cincinnati Gu, & Electrio Co. BacVod 2 Bec40rd 3 Cl.+md Electric Illuminating Esstlake 1 LO.
Columbus and Southern Ohio Eletrio Co. Commonwealth Edison Co. ConsurnemPoWer Co.
Crawfordsville.lndhoa Dairyland Power COOP. naytonpoper & Light CO. Detroit Edvroo Co
Dover, Ohio
El&& E n e w . Ins.
~ ~ JOPPP 3
~
loppa 4
JOPPS5
POWER FROM NUCLEAR FUELS
In conaidering power resources for the future, mention of the poaaible development of nuclear fuels for power generation Beema essential. Nearly all the power systems in the East North Central States presently are engaged in studies of this possibility. The salient facts concerning this matter can be outlined quite briefly. Nuclear fuels offer an extremely large new reRource of heat energy, estimated 88 being more than twenty times aa great aa the heat available h all the world's known ~ ~ E O W O % of fossil f u e k o a l , petroleum, natural gaa, and shale oil. Further it appeara that the coat of this heat energy for the production of
JOP
8
Ed
N. 8t. nennepin 1 vermilmn 1 vermi1ior.a Wood River 4 Creek 3 Indians & Miohian Electria T-em Hamilton Ohio Illinois P d w e co.
CO.
India-Kentuoky COIP.
Electric
Cliftv Creek 1
100.000
I I I 1
125 000 125:000 2w.m
33.000 75 m 75:m
100 000
125:000
125.000 86.000
I I I I I I I NF NF I I
PoaMn 4 Ridgeland 8 Ridgeland 4 state Line 3 Cohb 4 Waadock 7 Whitiw3 M"ni0iE.d Bt-nUnP nutahin* 8 River h u g e 1 River Rouge 2 s t . Chir 1 st. m i a 0t. clair3 st. clair 4 Dore DO"= sopp. 1
I I I I I I
185.000 165 WO
2m:wo 158 200 156:200 125 wo
12:wo 33 wo
75:wo
260,000 260 000
I
~
I I I I NF NF I 1.
I I I I NF I I
156:m 156.200
158 aw 158'200
8:m 8 200
a
156:2W 158,200
1~6,aw is6
aw
158:200 I58 m 12'600
75:000 75.000
I
I I
100.000 1M) wo 217:000
1
217,000
INDUSTRIAL AND ENGINEERING CHEMISTRY
495
Table 111. (Continued) System
Stationa Indianapolis Power 8; Light Co. K h i t e River 4 White River 5 White River 6 Iowa-Illinois Gas 8; Electric Co. bloline 6 Moline 7 Moore's Park Lansing Michi-an Blount St. 1 hiadiso; Gas a z d Electric Co. Northern Indiana Public Ser- X c h i g a n City vice Co. Northern hIichigan Electric Advance 1 coop. Advance 2 Burgei 1 Ohio Edison Co. Burger 5 Siles 1 Niles 2 hluakingurn Ohio Power Co. River 1 hIuskingiim River 2 Muskingum River 3 Aluskingum River 4 Philo Kyger Creek 1 Ohio Valley Electric Corp. Iiyger Creek 2 Iiyger Creek 3 Kyger Creek 4 Iiyger Creek 5 Orrville Orrville, Ohio Painesville Painesville. Ohio Wahash River 1 Piiblic Service Co. of Indiana F a h a s h River 2 K a h a s h River 3 Wabash River 4 Wabasli River 5 Public Service Co. of Northern Dixon 5 Illinois Will CoTinty 1 Will County 2 White Water Richmond, Indiana Valley 1 Shelhr Ohio S o u t h k k Indiana Gas & Eiec- Cullep 1 ~~
..._r n
Ownership $ I
I I I
I
sF I I
Rating, KW. 66,000 66,000 100,000 25,000 25,000 44,000 33,000 125,000
SF
9,400
h-r
9,400 156,200 156,000 125,000 125,000
I I I I
I
217,000
I
217,000
I
217,000
I I
sr Iir I I I I I I
217,000 120,000 217,000 217,000 217,000 217,000 217,000 9,400 9,400 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 125,000 66,000
I I
163,000 165,000
1-F
33,000 9,400 44,000
1
1 I
I I
S F I
trip
I ... Toledo Edison Co. sF AIunicipal Traverse City, Michigan I Upper Peninsula Generating Co. Municigai h-r Winnetka, Illinois Oak Creek 1 I 'Kisconsin Electric Power Co. I Oak Creek 2 Kisconsin Michigan Power Co. Micliigamnre Falls 1b I Uicliigamme I Falls 2 b I Rock River 1 Wisconsin Power 8; Light Co. Rock River 2 I I Wisconsin Public Service Coru. Weston 1 Total capacity, kilowatts Total number of units Average size of unit, kilowatts a
125,000 9,400 22,000 9,400 120,000 120,000 4,800 4,800 75,000 75,000 66,000 11,026,900 94
117.000
All stations are thermal except hIichigamnie Palls 1 and 2
5 I = investor owned; IiF = governmental nonfederal.
those engaged in the study efforts are agreed that the practical utilization of nuclear fuels on a commercially competitive basis is feasible and ultimately will be accomplished. They also believe that it will be several years before practical results will appear. It undoubtedly will be a year or two before any one of the
Vol. 46, No. 3
study projects progresses to the point wheie the detailed design of a commercial unit can be undertaken. Since this paper was presented the Atomic Energy Commission has announced plans for an atomic power plant of about 60,000 kilowatts capacity. Westinghouse Electric Corp. has been given a contract to design and develop the reactor. KOdecision has been made concerning the location of the plant, the construction engineers, nor the organization to operate the completed plant. The commission expects this plant to be in operation in 3 to 5 years. This would be followed by 3 years or more for the design and construction of the first reactor. The first reactor should be regarded as a test installation. subject to operation on an experimental basis for a year or two. During this time, numerous studies ulould be carried on to determine whether the scientific theories and the vaiious design and construction features ale appropriate. After all this time, 6 or 8 years at best, nuclear reactors for the production of electric power might begin to become a practical reality. If time is lost, the 8 years might easily become 10 or 15 years or even more. It has been recognized from the beginning that the very high cost of a nuclear power reactor is a most important factor. This cost can be proportionately reduced by designing the reactor for a very high power output. It still appears that any reactor to be truly competitive must have a very high capacity, probably well over 500,000 kilowatts of heat energy. This means that initialh, at least, nuclear reactors will be practical only where energv requirements are very large. What may ultimately develop iq not known, but the basic requirements with respect to critical mass, radiation, shielding, coolant, and other problems are such that large capacity units undoubtedly will a l ~ a y shave a big advantage on an investment cost basis. Progress in the development of atomic energy is being madc. but the efforts are being limited by the government monopoly and patent features of the Atomic Energy Act of 1946 American industry has grown and prospered because it has been based upon free enterprise, The patent system has been one of the mow important factors of that system. Nany industries are interested in atomic matters and will exerclse broad efforts to develop new uses for atomic materials as they become available. Most of the systems in the area are intensively studying the use of nuclear fuels in order to take advantage of new source of heat energy when it becomes practical. In the meantime, the pon-er systems of the East North Central States, and those of the entire country are expanding their facilities using preqent conventional facilities to keep up with the growth in the demand for power. The data available indicate that power resources using conventional fuels are adequate and will continue to meet present requirements. RECEIVED for review August 31, 1953.
ACCEPTEDJanuaiy 14, 1954.
