The Chemical World This Week
ERDA PLAN INVOLVES ALL ENERGY OPTIONS The Energy Research & Development Administration has sent to Congress a new national energy R&D plan. It contains no surprises, but it does call for major changes in past policy. In particular, the solar energy program will be upgraded. And the breeder reactor gets a significant downgrading, although work on it will continue with no commitment to commercialize it. The ERDA plan also calls for more money—an additional $131 million for this fiscal year to bring the agency's energy R&D budget authority to $1.85 billion. Judging from "pencil and paper experiments" used by ERDA to illustrate scenarios for energy R&D options, the U.S. will not achieve energy self-sufficiency (zero oil imports) for perhaps 20 years even if all major technologies are pushed, and certainly not by 1985 without draconian curbs in consumption. So, ERDA's "realistic national energy R&D strategy" pushes fossil, nuclear, solar, and geothermal energy as well as conservation (with autos, buildings, and industrial projects the primary targets) in a concerted coordinated effort. ERDA identifies priorities for the national energy R&D plan, which is to be updated annually and subject to public hearings, noting that "the R&D target must exceed perceived needs by a substantial factor to allow for inevitable R&D failures." And ERDA warns that "a sense of urgency is mandatory" in the conduct of the program. For the near term—between now and 1985—ERDA's priorities are to preserve and expand major existing energy systems: coal, light-water reactors ("the highest nuclear priority"), and gas and oil from new sources and from enhanced recovery techniques. The latter is essential to "buy time," possibly 10 years or so, in which to get further along in the R&D program. Hence, conservation, both in terms of increased efficiency in energy use and extraction of more usable energy from waste materials, is viewed as absolutely essential For the mid-term—1985 to 2000 —ERDA's priorities call for accelerating the development of new processes to produce synthetic fuels from coal and to extract oil from shale. Existing technologies are to 4
C&EN July 7, 1975
be implemented as soon as possible. And ERDA intends to "increase the use of underused fuels forms such as geothermal, solar for home heating and cooling, and the extraction of more usable energy from waste heat." For the long term—past 2000— ERDA's priorities are to pursue vigorously essentially inexhaustible resources: the nuclear breeder, fusion, and solar electric. Major contributions from these would not come until the 21st century, however. None of the "past-2000" technologies is now ready or assured of large-scale application, ERDA says. However, "benefits to be gained in achieving success in one or more of these approaches require that vigorous development efforts proceed now on all three." And ERDA says it is essential to "avoid overemphasis on single approaches which tend to foreclose future options." Concern that the government has been doing just that with the breeder reactor program has been a source of sharply growing criticism. ERDA Administrator Robert Seamans dealt with such criticism last week in his review of the proposed final environmental statement for the liquid-metal fast-breeder reactor. Endorsing continued research, development, and demonstration funding on the breeder reactor pro-
ERDA wants $131 million more for energy R&D BUDGET AUTHORITY*
$ Millions
DIRECT ENERGY Nuclear Fission Fusion Fuel cycle Nonnuclear Fossil Solar Conservation Geothermal Advanced
Presi- Energy dent's amendbudget ment
$677 -$54 226 38 42 98 391 70 41 24 24
26 19 32 8 20
146 152
0 0
TOTAL ENERGY R&D $1849
$131
SUPPORT PROGRAMS Environmental Basic research a For fiscal 1976. Source: ERDA
gram, Seamans says that "there is no presently available or prudent alternative to this course of action." Further, "other programs are receiving substantially increased new appropriations and are proceeding as rapidly as possible consistent with prudent management and efficient use of public monies." Concerning public monies, ERDA wants more of it—$131 million more in fiscal 1976. However, the agency intends to spend actually only $63 million of the increase and no additional funds are sought for environmental effects and basic research. Direct energy programs for which ERDA does intend to increase both budget authority and outlays are fossil, solar, geothermal, advanced energy systems, conservation, and fusion. Funding for fission reactors, in effect the breeder program, would be cut by at least $54 million, but funding for the nuclear fuel cycle would be boosted by $42 million. •
President wants auto standards frozen In the name of controlling inflation, conserving energy, and maintaining public health, President Ford has proposed that Congress extend current 1975 auto emission standards through the 1981 auto model year. His proposal is in conflict with recommendations made last month by the National Academy of Sciences that auto makers can and should meet statutory emission standards without any fuel penalty as they are scheduled under the 1970 Clean Air Act. And Ford's latest recommendation also is considerably less stringent than what he or the Environmental Protection Agency had recommended earlier this year. At present, House and Senate committees are in the process of marking up amendments to the Clean Air Act. And it is likely that they will go along with the President. For instance, Sen. Edmund S. Muskie's (D.-Me.) ideas on auto emission standards are not too different from the President's. In a recent letter to members of the Subcommittee on Environmental Pollution, which is marking up the act, chairman Muskie proposes to extend current standards (1.5 grams per mile hydrocarbons, 15 grams per
years. The fact is that converters in the market. Production made an are not needed to meet current stan- average annual gain of almost 6% dards (except in California), but in the five years through 1973. Last Detroit and some foreign manufac- year's slump was 7%, or half the turers have chosen to equip 85% of rate for rayon. (By comparison, all 1975 new cars in the U.S. with Japanese output of polyester fiber converters anyway. And according fell 2% in 1974 on an annual basis, to a spokesman at General Motors, nylon 14%, and acrylics 17%). The company most committed to the company intends to continue the use of converters. Even if con- cellulosics among the three largest verters are done away with, he says, Japanese fiber makers is Asahi the cost of retooling the engine or Chemical Industries, which traces some other emission control device its origin to a firm established in would be passed on to the con- 1931 to make cuprammonium fisumers. And that would defeat the bers. Though acrylic fiber is now President's rationale of keeping the the company's top earner, cupramcost down by retaining the current monium products currently account standards. • for about 9% of Asahi's sales and 10% of its net earnings. Rayon and acetate products together represent another 8% of sales. But they're currently the loss leaders among the firm's product lines, together showing a net loss of some $2 million in the half-year ended last Last week marked the end of rayon March. But, countering rumors in production by Toray Industries, Ja- Japan that it will ease out of these pan's largest maker of synthetic lines, Asahi Chemical emphatically fiber products. Shutdown of rayon denies any plan to discontinue staple fiber facilities at its Ehime rayon or acetate production. • plant follows by 12 years the company's ending of rayon filament output. Toray, called Toyo Rayon when it was founded almost 50 years ago to produce viscose filament, is the first of Japan's three largest synthetic fiber makers to get out of cellulosics production alto- The recession finally has caught up gether. with industrial gases. This spring Japanese cellulosics output has and summer, overall gas producheld virtually steady since 1965, tion is down as much as 20% at some when combined production of producers. Through April, the latest rayon, acetate, and cuprammonium month with hard figures, producfibers reached the half-million met- tion of the leading gas, oxygen, was ric ton mark. Peaking at 539,000 down 14% from a seasonally admetric tons in 1973, output justed recent high in February. dropped last year to 473,000 metric The main reason for the current tons—back to the 1963 level. Rayon weakness is a sudden sharp drop in was down 15% from the previous steel production, the biggest market year to 387,000 metric tons, a level for gases. June steel output was the still 15% higher than U.S. rayon lowest for this month since 1962. production in 1974. Exports of For more than a year through last rayon fabrics, meanwhile, fell to winter, the U.S. industrial gas busi118 million sq m in 1974, less than ness seemed to float effortlessly over half the 1970 figure. Toray, facing the recession ravaging other parts replacement of aging rayon facili- of the chemical industry. For the ties during a time of continuing se- big U.S. gas producers—Airco, Air vere recession for all textiles, opted Products, Chemetron, and Linde to drop what had already become a division of Union Carbide—oxygen, minuscule (less than 0.5%) part of nitrogen, and other products in this its business. area were key contributors to a profTeijin Ltd., which pioneered it performance far above the indusrayon manufacture in the Far East try average. in 1918 (Teikoku Jinzo Kenshi, its Even now profits in the gas busioriginal name, means "Imperial Ar- ness have been somewhat shielded tificial Silk"), discontinued rayon from the full impact of the declining production in 1971. But its acetate physical volume in the steel area. filament business, now 20 years old, One reason is product diversificaamounted to $31 million in the year tion. Another is sales contracts with ended last March—roughly 3% of steel users which cut into the least sales. Acetate, though its output in profitable part of gas volume first. Japan is only one sixth that of To date, the net result for gas rayon, has shown more momentum producers is some profits penalty
Japan's Toray exits from rayon business
Quarles (left) and Zarb: freezing standards could improve fuel efficiency
mile carbon monoxide, and 3.1 grams per mile nitrogen oxides) through the 1977 model year. He also proposes extending current standards through the 1978 and 1979 model years if cars in those years can achieve fuel efficiency of 20 miles per gal. Otherwise, 1978 and 1979 cars would have to meet the more stringent standards of 0.41 gram per mile hydrocarbons, 3.4 grams per mile carbon monoxide, and 1 gram per mile nitrogen oxides. The more stringent standards then would apply to all cars beginning with the 1980 model year. The President's rationale for his latest recommendation was explained by Federal Energy Administration chief Frank Zarb and by the Environmental Protection Agency's acting administrator John Quarles at a White House press conference. Among other things, they point out, the President believes that extending current standards would permit cars to achieve a 40% or better fuel efficiency over the next five years. But Zarb cautions that the 40% figure is not to be "set in concrete" and that he actually sees an achievement somewhere within a "range." He did not, however, define the range. Further, according to President Ford, extending the standards would "avoid increasing the potential health hazards of sulfuric acid" that is emitted from cars equipped with catalytic converters. The implication is that cars no longer will need converters over the next five
Steel decline pulls down industrial gases
July 7, 1975 C&EN
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