PRODUCT REPORT
RUBER
SLOW GROWTH AHEAD Longer lasting tires, other auto parts expected to slow overall demand
case in the U.S. and Canada, where re covery from recession helped boost rubber consumption more than 11% over 1991. That increase was due largely to • W W T T orldwide rubber demand W j L / g r e w slowly in 1992, up just stepped-up demand for tires and other • •about 2% over 1991. The long- auto-related products. This increased determ outlook is for a slow increase in mand points to several emerging trends. world rubber output as major industrial The first trend is in tire production economies continue to recover, as in the where advances in tire elastomers have U.S., or emerge from recession, as in brought about a new generation of tires Western Europe. The development of that delivers better fuel mileage. A seclonger lasting tires and other auto parts ond trend is in production of new tire will also slow overall demand for rub- elastomer blends that are making possiber. World rubber demand likely will in- ble the production of radial tires with crease this year, to slightly more than 15 warranties of 80,000 miles, up from the million metric tons, from its 1992 level of 40,000-mile warranties typical just a few years ago. These two trends could affect 14.9 million metric tons. Political and economic uncertainties in the mix and quantity of commodity synmany parts of the world were behind thetic rubbers and natural rubber used last year's slow growth for rubber. They in tire production over the long term. forced a decline in demand of 15% in And just as tire makers are competing Central Europe and over 10% in the to offer tires with longer warranties, auCommonwealth of Independent States tomakers are doing the same. In order to (C.I.S.). Demand in the Middle East and offer, in some cases, five-year car warAfrica slipped more than 5%, and in Lat- ranties, and at the same time provide in America it registered a 3% decline. low-emissions-producing engines, autoWestern Europe, entering into a reces- makers have initiated a third trend. They sion, saw rubber consumption climb a are beginning to require specialty heatlittle more than 3%, and demand in Asia tolerant elastomers that operate under grew just over 1% as the Japanese reces- higher temperatures than those of the sion held down stronger growth in the past to produce longer lasting hoses, region. Demand in China, North Korea, belts, and gaskets that are used in enand Vietnam grew 6%. gines and associated equipment. The trend to smaller cars that use smallAlthough rubber demand worldwide grew slowly in 1992, this was not the er tires, and the shift to radial tires, which Marc S. Reisch, C&EN Northeast News Bureau
24
MAY 10,1993 C&EN
last longer than bias-ply and other types of tires, has already reduced the amount of rubber used to manufacture tires. According to a World Rubber & Tire Report issued by Freedonia Group, Cleveland, a little more than a year ago, the amount of natural and synthetic rubber used in tires dropped from 45% of all rubber consumed in 1980 to 42% in 1990. Although the International Institute of Synthetic Rubber Producers (IBRP), Houston, estimates that almost 52% of all synthetic rubber currently consumed goes into tire production, that percentage may change as newer, longer lasting tires make their way into the market. According to Albert Hahn, senior partner of Eco Plan International, Paris, which has just finished a study of the tire industry, Michelin, the French tire company, again is introducing new tires that may change the types, and ultimately the volume, of rubber consumed for tires. A decade ago, Michelin introduced radial tire construction that resulted in automotive tires with a tread life exceeding 40,000 miles, up from the 20,000 miles or so that was customary at that time. In 1991, Michelin introduced another tire in the U.S., one that is warranted for 80,000 miles. Michelin calls its new long-tread-life tire the XH4, and says the 80,000-mile tread wear life means the tire will last as long as many people own their cars. A
MXN tire calls for solution SBR as well as high amounts of ris-butadiene. As a result, demand for emulsion SBR, already declining as natural rubber replaces emulsion SBR in radial tire construction, may decline again in favor of solution SBR. Because of this change, higher priced elastomers are finding their way into higher priced tires, a change applauded by producers of solution SBR. Solution SBR may become a generalpurpose elastomer in the future instead of a specialty, Hahn adds. Automotive production also affects another large market: mechanical goods for automotive uses including hoses, belts, bumpers, and weatherstripping. IISRP estimates automotive mechanical goods account for some 10% of synthetic rubber consumption. Another recent Freedonia Group study values the 1991 industrial rubber products segment at $7.1 billion, the bulk of which went to automotive uses. According to Freedonia's Industrial Rubber Products study, auto producers are building smaller engine compartments to improve fuel efficiency and accommodate front-wheel drive systems. This means engine compartments must endure higher temperatures, and rubber components must be made of materials with high heat tolerances. Thus, polychloroprene, the traditional under-hood material of choice, may be replaced by a range of other rubber products including specialty elastomers, thermoplastic elastomers (TPEs), and plastics such as nylon.
World rubber use More than half of all synthetic rubber produced is used in tires
Michelin press release says of the tire that "you don't build a passenger tire that has an 80,000-mile warranty ... simply by adding more rubber to it. You add more technology." Apparently the technology requires a "revolutionary new rubber compound," and "a revolutionary new family of elastomers developed by Michelin." But what that compound is, and exactly what the technology is, a Michelin spokesman would not say. Reacting to the new technology, some styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) manufacturers contend that the Michelin long-life tire will appeal only to the segment of the market willing to pay for the high performance. About 70% of SBR consumed goes into tire production. SBR manufacturers doubt that
SBR consumption will be hurt by the new technology, and expect SBR demand to continue to grow at about the same rate as overall tire demand. On the other hand, Hahn points out that Michelin is spearheading a different sort of technology in Europe. A new long-life tire the company has introduced there delivers fuel economy 4 to 5% better than that of competing tires. The low-rolling resistance tire, the MXN, is now original equipment on the Citroen A-X diesel automobile. The new tire, according to Hahn, has set off a technology race among tire manufacturers to produce tires that deliver performance and fuel savings similar to those of the Michelin tire. In addition, says Hahn, the Michelin
Although market shifts will affect individual commodity rubber consumption, overall world rubber consumption likely will grow 3% annually from 1992's 14.9 million metric tons to 16.9 million metric tons in 1997, according to the latest IISRP forecast. For the same period, synthetic rubber use will grow a little more than 2% annually from 9.7 million metric tons to 10.9 million metric tons. Natural rubber use will grow at a slightly faster rate of 3% annually, from 5.2 million metric tons in 1992 to 6 million metric tons in 1997. Growth in synthetic rubber use varied from region to region in 1992. In North America (Canada and the U.S.), consumption grew faster than in any other region as the U.S. economy began to pick up, and with it automotive and tire production. Synthetic rubber consumption increased 9.5% from 1991 to MAY 10,1993 C&EN 25
PRODUCT
REPORT
market in 1997, up from 16% in 1992. Ethylene-propylene elas Slow growth forecast for rubber demand tomers will have the same 7% market share in 1997 as they Total rubber Synthetic rubber Natural rubber had in 1992. Polychloroprene Average Average Thousands of Thousands of annual Average annual metric tons metric tons and nitrile rubber will hold change, % change, % annual 1993-97 1992 1993 1997 1993-97 1992 1993 1997 change, % onto their respective 3 and 4% shares of the market between 1.7% 1.7% 2672 2749 2,947 North America 1.7% 965 999 1067 1992 and 1997. Other synthetic 1.8 Western Europe 2120 2137 2,273 1.6 2.3 950 930 1020 rubbers, which include carbox 2.4 2.6 1983 2043 2290 Asia & Oceania 1815 1849 2,030 2.9 ylated latex, account for almost 657 1.7 3.4 2.9 548 575 260 260 278 Latin America 4.2, 80 230 215 250 65 5.3 73 3.8 Central Europe half of the total and will grow 1732 1665 1,992 4.8 Commonwealth of 8.8 100 100 140 4.6 at about the same rate as the Independent States other elastomers. 4.1 4.0 125 124 145 160 162 190 4.0 Middle East & Africa Demand for TPEs is growing 8 427 453 571 6.0 6.0 708 750 948 China & Asia 6.0 faster than that for basic elas 3.2% 2.7% 5199 5309 6013 2.9% TOTAL 9669 9767 10,865 tomers. TPEs consist of a large number of products considered a Includes China, North Korea, and Vietnam. Source: International Institute of Synthetic Rubber Producers to be derivatives of other elas tomers. Their use is expected to nearly 2 million metric tons expand from 726,000 metric tons in 1992 in 1997, followed by the Mid to 982,000 metric tons in 1997, reflecting Value of industrial rubber products dle East and Africa, up 4% 6.2% annual growth. shipments forecast to rise nearly 7% annually to 145,000 metric % annual tons. Central Europe is ex Synthetic versus natural rubber growth $ Millions 1991-96 1996 pected to consume some Tires and associated products, tradi 250,000 metric tons, up near tionally the largest use of rubber, ac 6.8% Industrial rubber $4015 $7110 $9885 product shipments 8 ly 4% annually, and Latin count for about 75% of natural rubber 3.5 1540 Hoses 801 1295 American consumption may use and 52% of synthetic rubber use, ex 4.7 1145 Belts & belting 705 910 reach 657,000 metric tons, cluding Central and Eastern Europe and 8.0 Mechanical products 2509 4905 7200 up about 3% annually. Con China. As IISRP statistics show, natural sumption by Asia and Oce rubber has attributes with which syn Industrial rubber products b 5896 7110 8485 3.6 ania will rise to 2 million thetic rubber just cannot compete, says a Current dollars, b 1991 dollars. Source: Freedonia Group metric tons, up a bit more Paul Hurley, president of the Malaysian than 2% annually, while Rubber Bureau. 2.7 million metric tons. As Western Eu North American consumption will ap Natural rubber is in high demand for ropean economies entered into a reces proach 2% annual growth to 2.9 million tire production because of its low heat sion, consumption grew at a slower metric tons, and European consumption buildup in tires, says Hurley. When ra pace, 3.6% to 2.1 million metric tons. In will grow more than 1% annually to 2.3 dial tire construction was introduced a Asia and Oceania, which excludes com million metric tons. number of years ago, natural rubber munist countries such as China, con Market share of the various synthetic displaced some synthetic rubber besumption declined marginally to 1.8 mil rubbers for all uses, including that for lion metric tons in 1992. Consumption in tires, will change, but to a limited extent, Nontire uses of rubber other regions declined more significant according to IISRP. Its statistical projec ly: Latin America, down 3% to 548,000 tions include C.I.S., a factor that blunts are growing fastest metric tons; Central Europe, down 14% the impact of Michelin's new tire ad Millions of metric tons to 230,000 metric tons; C.I.S., down 12% vances. C.I.S. is a developing market 20 to 1.7 million metric tons; and the Mid where auto demand is expected to rise 2.9% annual growth dle East and Africa, down 11% to rapidly, as opposed to the developed ^^^^ Total N 125,000 metric tons. In China, North Ko economies of North America and West 15 I rea, and Vietnam, consumption rose 6% ern Europe. IISRP projects SBR con 3.5% to 427,000 metric tons. sumption (excluding carboxylated latex) annual growth IISRP projects that growth in synthetic will increase 234,000 metric tons to 3.5 10 Γ Nontire million metric tons between 1992 and rubber markets between 1993 and 1997 will be greatest in those regions that ex 1997. Those data also exclude China and perienced the most significant slow Central Europe, because IISRFs data are 5h 2.2% 1 downs in 1992, with the exception of incomplete. As a result, SBR will account annual Tire for 35% of total synthetic rubber use in China, North Korea, and Vietnam. Con growth sumption in those three countries will 1997, down 1% from its 1992 market I continue to grow 6% annually, the same share. Polybutadiene, the second largest 1990 1995 1980 1985 as in 1992. CIS. probably will grow sec elastomer consumed outside China and Source: Freedonia Group ond fastest, up more than 4% annually to Central Europe, will have 17% of the 26
MAY 10,1993 C&EN
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PRODUCT
REPORT
Rubber use in 1997 may hit 17 million metric tons Millions of metric tons I Natural I Synthetic I Total
Note: Includes China, Vietnam, North Korea, Central Europe, and Commonwealth of Independent States, a Estimates. Source: International Institute of Synthetic Rubber Producers
fact, are on their way to qualifying their processing plants to the stringent ISO 9000 international quality standards.
Auto demand fuels growth Rudolf Caspar, senior vice president of sales and marketing for the Polysar Rubber division of Miles, the U.S. arm of Bayer A.G., says 1992 was a good year for Polysar's North American business, largely because of the recovery of the U.S. auto industry. Tire purchases picked up not only in the original equipment market, but also in the replacement tire market. Germany's Bayer is probably the world's largest synthetic rubber supplier since its acquisition of Polysar Rubber Corp., Toronto, in 1990. IISRP puts Bayer's worldwide synthetic rubber capacity at about 834,000 metric tons, excluding specialty rubbers. That gives Bayer nearly 9% of world capacity, excluding Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and China. Caspar notes the company sells seven different types of elastomers, the bulk of which goes into tire production. U.S. makers of both motor vehicles and tires benefited from 1992 growth in the minivan and jeep market, according to Caspar, because they largely supply the markets for these light trucks. However, Japanese rubber producers did not benefit from this production improvement. Caspar says Polysar has developed an advanced hydrogenated nitrile (HN) rubber that has greater heat stability and is more resistant to oxidation under an automobile hood than standard nitrile rubber. HN sells at a premium compared with nitrile, but the price is lower
cause the synthetic rubber could not endure under the higher operating temperatures required in the new tire design. Synthetic rubber helps tire tread last longer, but natural rubber can take the heat. Natural rubber has other properties that make it valuable in tire construction. As an unvulcanized material, it is very tough, and has high tack. These attributes are important in tire manufacturing because they help keep tire plies from separating before vulcanization cures the tire. For these reasons, says Hurley, natural rubber will probably always be used in tire construction. Although it is possible to make a synthetic polyisoprene with some of the attributes of natural rubber, Hurley points out that it is more expensive to produce the synthetic material than to purchase the natural rubber. Nor does synthetic polyisoprene have the unique properties of natural rubber, which is 93% polyisoprene and 7% miscellaneous proteins, lipoids, fatty acids, and natural antioxidants. It is the 7% miscellaneous component that gives natural rubber its high-tack attributes and makes it both unique and ideal for tires, says Hurley. Many synthetic producers would like to produce a synthetic polyisoprene to guarantee product consistency, Hurley says, but natural rubber producers have„ taken steps to ensure consistency in the way they collect and coagulate natural rubber on plantations where Hevea brasiliensis, the rubber tree, grows. Malaysian rubber producers, in 28
MAY 10,1993 C&EN
than that of fluorinated rubber. He notes that HN is just starting to appear in automotive hoses, belts, gaskets, and seals and that it is replacing not only fluorinated and nitrile rubber for these uses, but also some acrylate rubbers. Polysar has two other rubber elastomers with growing markets—ethylenepropylene (EP) and ethylene-propylene diene-monomer (EPDM). Demand for these materials likely will grow about 6 to 7% in 1993 over 1992. A growing market for EP, says Caspar, is as a modifier for polypropylene automobile bumpers. The resulting bumper material is not a crosslinked thermoplastic olefin (TPO), but an EP-polypropylene compound, he explains. The Polysar material will compete with other producers' TPOs, he adds. One issue affecting production of synthetic rubber for tire use is greater d e mand by manufacturers for more consistent materials. As tire manufacturers move to production techniques requiring less labor, they require more consistent quality in the synthetic rubber used to produce a tire, says Caspar. As a result, "the polybutadiene of today can't be compared with that of 10 years ago." Victor Case, chemical division marketing manager for Goodyear, the largest North American producer of synthetic rubber, with a capacity of 662,000 metric tons, agrees that improving the quality of synthetic rubber is important to re maining a competitive merchant producer of the rubber. "We run a lean operation and we run all the quality programs you've heard of to improve our business and to offer our customers a better deal each year." About 80 to 85% of the SBR rubber Goodyear sells goes to
Global synthetic rubber canacitv grew little in nast decade Polychloroprene Nitrile
Styrenebutadiene 60%
Ethylene- propylene
Styrenebutadlene
"^ Butyl + —-^ polyisoprene
Polybutadiene ^ 1983 capacity = 8.95 million metric tons
1993 capacity = 9.50 million metric tons
Note: Includes latices but excludes specialty rubbers. Capacities do not include those of Eastern Europe, Vietnam, North Korea, and China. Source: International Institute of Synthetic Rubber Producers
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HSC Chemistry for Windows World synthetic rubber capacity has flattened Millions of metric tons 10 1
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Caspar: demand for consistency CIRCLE 2 4 ON READER SERVICE CARD MAY 10,1993 C&EN
31
PRODUCT
REPORT
Drake (above, clockwise): uses for scrap tires; Duncan: Holy Grail quest; Breitenstein: consolidation forced
elastomer caught on in the U.S. roofing business, both in new construction and as replacement roofing. However, b e cause EPDM roofs have a life expectancy of about 20 years, the EPDM roofing market largely depends on new construction. John E. Schremp, president of Firestone Synthetic Rubber & Latex Co., a division of Japan's Bridgestone/Firestone Inc., expects demand for SBR and polybutadiene to grow 3 to 5% in 1993. Firestone supplies its synthetic rubber to its sister company's tire operations as well as to other tire manufacturers, and Schremp says a substantial amount of polybutadiene is now going into thermoplastics modification. Uses include incorporation into polystyrene to make high-impact grades used, for example, in children's moldable cups. Polybutadiene also is used to modify acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene plastic to lend impact re32
MAY 10,1993 C&EN
sistance to refrigerator liners, for instance. According to John R. Breitenstein, global business manager for Du Ponf s core elastomer business, European and North American economies tend to be more sophisticated and produce higher growth for such elastomers as EPDM and TPEs. In less mature economies, such as Asia/ Pacific, Latin America, and Central Europe, demand for elastomers such as polychloroprene is still high. Globally, however, customers expect higher quality and consistency at reasonable prices. Suppliers must not only accede to customer demand, they must also alter their processes to satisfy increasingly stringent environmental regulations. And as producers suffer with overcapacity at present, profits suffer, says Breitenstein. Breitenstein sees these pressures forcing more industry consolidation such as the Bayer/Polysar merger. Developments in the Far East may also influence merger trends because of the large number of petrochemical streams coming on line, particularly ethylene and butadiene, he says. He declines to comment on just what tack Du Pont might take as the industry consolidates, though Donald K. Duncan, Du Ponf s elastomer business manager, says Du Pont expects to remain a force in the elastomer business and particularly in polychloroprene, a compound invented by Du Pont scientists. Duncan says Du Pont has invested $20
million in state-of-the-art equipment to upgrade polychloroprene technology at its Pontchartrain, La., site. The installation replaces the currently used vapor-phase chlorination process with a liquid-phase chlorination process that reduces organic and aqueous waste by 60%. He expects the new process to improve safety, result in higher yields at lower costs, and eliminate the formation of coke, thus reducing the need for cleaning and maintaining equipment. The company has also increased investment in its Hypalon chlorinated and chlorosulfonated polyolefin manufacturing business with a $10 million pilot plant to demonstrate a new process that eliminates the use of carbon tetrachloride, says Duncan. Carbon tetrachloride is an ozone-depleting chemical that must be phased out by 2000 under guidelines of the Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer. The pilot plant is under construction in.Du Ponf s Maydown Works in Northern Ireland and is slated to be operating by October. When the technology is proven, Du Pont expects to transfer it to commercial production, Duncan says. Breitenstein says Du Pont is promoting an extension of the Hypalon line, Acsium, an alkylated chlorosulfonated polyethylene with higher temperature resistance than Hypalon. Acsium may be used in power transmission and ser-
Timing belt made from Polysar's hydrogenated nitnle rubber
Weatherstnpping made from Uniroyal's Royalene EDPM pentine engine belts. Swedish auto man ufacturer Saab has already adopted belts made of Acsium for its 9000 series cars.
Used tires dilemma The goal of synthetic rubber produc ers is to increase their product offerings and production. But they also know that rubber products will not just go away when they reach the end of their useful lives. Large numbers of used tire car casses litter landscapes worldwide. Rub ber producers know they have to do something about this problem. But they do not agree on how to deal with it. According to the Rubber Manufactur ers Association, Washington, D.C., the U.S. produces about 200 million scrap tires annually. About 20 million tires are ground up each year and reclaimed for use in molded rubber products. And new and cheaper synthetic rubber compounds and increasing use of plastics have shrunk traditional markets for recycled rubber: new tires, garden hoses, and auto floor mats. The use of reclaimed rubber, ac cording to the association, was down about 40% in the past dozen years, and many reclamation plants have shut down. Air Products & Chemicals, although not a rubber producer, because of its in dustrial gas expertise, is researching one potentially useful solution. The compa ny is working under a $2.3 million con tract with the Department of Energy to develop high-value-added uses for scrap tires by treating the scrap with propri etary reactive gas atmospheres. Accord ing to Miles P. Drake, technical director of Air Products' applied R&D unit, the reactive gas atmosphere modifies the surface of the'ground rubber to allow
better adhesion and compatibility of the rubber particles with other polymeric materials such as polyurethanes, epoxies, and silicones. Treated rubber particles would there fore provide a high-value-added filler. End uses could include incorporation into urethane caulks, sealants, and foamed sheet materials such as urethane carpet backing, says Drake. Treated materials could also find their way into urethane pneumatic tires where the black filler, be cause of the carbon black content, would provide the color and ultraviolet light re sistance required of a tire. Rubber and tire producers do not see much high-value potential in scrap tires. Goodyear's chemical division marketing manager, Victor Case, says Goodyear takes waste cured rubber and scrapped tires and reclaims them for use as partic ulate in new tire manufacturing. How ever, such use accounts for only a very small percentage of material used in new tire production, and so any impact it could have on the used tire dilemma is quite small. The problem, explains Case, is that basic rubber raw material is not that expensive. As a consequence, reclaiming rubber is not cost effective. Oil-extended SBR sells for about 30 cents per lb, he says. But unless or until new rubber sells for more than $1.00 per lb, recycling just will not be economical. For now, scrapped tires are better used to construct barrier reefs, burn in cement kilns, or grind as filler in asphalt road material. Polysar's Caspar says it makes most sense to burn used tires in incinerators specially designed to limit any pollutant emissions and recover the energy pro
duced. The problem with this option, he admits, is that the public generally re sists incineration because of the percep tion that burning tires will seriously pol lute the atmosphere. The use of regrind in new tire construction only delays the ultimate scrapping of the rubber, he ex plains. Attempts in Germany to break down tire rubber and reclaim its constit uent ingredients have shown that option to be too costly. Reclaimed raw material is two to three times more expensive than virgin material. But, he says, it is as cheap to burn tires as it is to burn oil. Duncan notes that if regrinding and re using old tires in production of highway asphalt was a "great" solution, it would already have happened. And he wonders if incinerating tires would really be effec tive. "It might cost more to transport old tires to an incinerator than the value of energy recovered when the tire is burned," he says. Dealing with the ques tion of what to do with used tires is "the Holy Grail quest of the elastomer busi ness," and one that will require action on the part of the entire rubber industry. •
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MAY 10,1993 C&EN 33
