I/EC
Scale-up for Statistics
November 1959, Volume 5 1 , No. 11 APPLIED J O U R N A L S , ACS 11 5 5 Sixteenth St., N . W . Washington 6 , D. C. Director of Publications, C. B. Larrabee Editorial Director, Walter J . M u r p h y Executive Editor, James M . C r o w e Assistant to the Director o f Publications, Joseph H. K u n e y INDUSTRIAL A N D ENGINEERING CHEMISTRY Editor, W i l l H. Shearon, Jr. EDITORIAL HEADQUARTERS W A S H I N G T O N 6 , D. C. 1 1 5 5 Sixteenth St., N . W . Phone REpublic 7 - 3 3 3 7 Teletype W A 2 3 Associate Editors: G . Gladys Gordon, Stella A n d e r s o n , Katherine I. Biggs Assistant Editors: Robert J. Riley, Robert J . K e l l e y , Ruth M . H o w o r t h , Eugenia Keller, Sue M . Solliday, W i l l i a m H. G a y , M a l v i n a B. Preiss, Ruth Reynard, Joe H . Olin Editorial Assistants: Katherine H. G i n n a n e , Virginia E. Stewart, Senta S. Rogers, Lorraine Bertuzzi Layout and Production: M e l v i n D. Buckner ( A r t ) ; Betty V . Kieffer, Leroy Corcoran, John V . Sinnett BRANCH EDITORIAL OFFICES C H I C A G O 1 , ILL. Room 9 2 6 , 3 6 South W a b a s h A v e . Phone STate 2 - 5 1 4 8 Teletype CG 7 2 5 Associate Editors: H o w a r d J . Sanders, Chester Placek Assistant Editor: James H. Krieger H O U S T O N 2 , TEX., 7 1 8 Melrose Bldg. Phone F A i r f a x 3 - 7 1 0 7 Teletype H O 7 2 Associate Editor: Bruce F. Greek Assistant Editor: Earl V . Anderson NEW Y O R K 1 6 , Ν . Υ., 2 Park A v e . Phone O R e g o n 9 - 1 6 4 6 Teletype N Y 1 - 4 7 2 6 Associate Editors: W i l l i a m Q . H u l l , Harry Stenerson, D a v i d M . Kiefer, D. G r a y W e a v e r , Walter S. Fedor, Laurence J . White Assistant Editor: Louis A . A g n e l l o S A N FRANCISCO 4 , CALIF. 7 0 3 Mechanics' Institue Bldg., 5 7 Post St. Phone EXbrook 2 - 2 8 9 5 Teletype SF 5 4 9 Associate Editor: Richard H. N e w h a l l Assistant Editor: Joseph Sturchio EASTON, PA. 2 0 t h a n d Northampton Sts. Phone BLackburn 8 - 9 1 1 1 Teletype ESTN Pa 7 0 4 8 Associate Editor: Charlotte C. Sayre Assistant Editor: Joyce A . Richards Editorial Assistants: Elizabeth R. Rufe, Barbara A . Conover E U R O P E A N OFFICE Bush House, A l d w y c h , London Phone Temple Bar 3 6 0 5 Cable JIECHEM Associate Editor: Albert S. Hester Contributing Editors: H . Carl B a u m a n , Robert F. W a l l , James B. W e a v e r , W . J . Youden Advisory Board: A . H. Batchelder, R. L. Batem a n , James M . Church, Lauchlin M . Currie, George Harrington, Gustave H e i n e m a n n , Rafael K a t z e n , Joseph H. Koffolt, Samuel D. Koonce, C. J . Krister, E. E. M c S w e e n e y , F. Drew M a y f i e l d , H . G l a d y s S w o p e , George Thodos, Richard C. W a u g h v RlADt«SHIP-7
RESEARCH V
Advertising Management REINHOLD PUBLISHING C O R P . (For Branch Offices see p a g e 1 1 7 A)
IN T H E YEARS t h a t I / E C has been plugging for recognition of the value a n d use of statistical design methods, great emphasis has been placed on planning of research experiments. M u c h less has been said o n use in plant production. T h i s has not been deliberate, except in the sense of following the logical growth of use of statistics in the chemical industry—the old story of crawling before you walk. But statistics in the C P I are growing u p — t h e techniques so successful in the research laboratory can be equally valuable to industrial chemi cal production. T h a t there can be no d o u b t of this was shown by representatives of D u Pont, Monsanto, Merck, Food Machinery, and Tennessee Eastman at the ACS Atlantic City Meeting. Nothing is so convincing as case histories, a n d these companies have them. F a c torials, multiple regressions, response surface methods, for instance, can uncover faulty spots in production a n d processes, can determine the effects of specific variables, and can result in significant operational savings. A S Q C has just completed a two-day course a t St. Louis on evolutionary operation ( E V O P ) as a guide to improved product quality, increased yield, a n d reduced cost. W h a t are the areas offering the greatest potential returns for re search? According to H e r b e r t Grohskopf of C y a n a m i d they arc non linear estimation, computer simulation of processes, steady-state, a n d d y n a m i c process analysis for computer control. But there is still a big gap to be bridged—the gap of effective sharing of talents. N o w h e r e has this been more evident to I / E C ' s editors t h a n in reviewing of manuscripts on statistical methods. T h e professional mathematical statistician and the chemical engineer speak more or less the same language in handling statistics—but often their a p p r o a c h is poles apart. T h e i r views are as different as those of a crystallographer a n d an ice skater contemplating an unbroken sheet of ice. T h e statistician is the purist; the chemical engineer is interested in how m u c h time or money a method, even though not statistically perfect, can m a k e for his company. And so we are back again to the teamwork angle. D r . Grohskopf plugs for the organization of process analysis teams—chemists, engi neers, mathematicians, statisticians, numerical analysts. O n the heels of the A C S Meeting, F . P . V a n c e of Phillips Petroleum's Atomic Energy Division m a d e a plea toward the same end at the A I C h E meet ing in St. Paul. Phillips has had the same problem that faces most large companies in the chemical industry—programming the efforts of a research staff representing m a n y talents, in m a n y areas, at m a n y levels. T h e i r answer is a procedure for systematizing research. T h e object, of course, is o p t i m u m use of personnel a n d a greatly acceler ated a p p r o a c h to the solution of applied research problems. Four groups u n d e r the research director are conceptual, statistical, meas urement, a n d design. Statistical is the key, and the staff need not be large; in some cases the work can be done entirely by outside consult ants. T h e relation between the groups is horizontal, vertical, and repeated at various stages. It is too complicated to describe here but assumes a fairly simple route when charted. T h e role of a statistical group does not end when a proposal has been submitted to m a n a g e ment. Phillips has a long list of m a n a g e m e n t problems successfully concluded by statistical m e t h o d s : production scheduling, inventory policies, market evaluation, establishment of operating standards a n d manufacturing costs, selection of accounts for promotion, plant loca tion, evaluation of promotional advertising, relation of selling costs to manufacturing activity, a n d even establishment of an equitable bonus system are some of these. This is a long-playing record, and we don't think our playing it will ever wear it out. W e w a n t to keep statistics a n d their best use ever at m a n a g e m e n t ' s attention. Now that there is hardly an area where m a n a g e m e n t cannot profitably use the results of statistical analyses, this should not be h a r d . V O L . 5 1 , N O . 11
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