Study urges shift from oil to alternate fuels "The free world must drastically curtail the growth of energy use and move massively out of oil into other fuels with wartime urgency. Otherwise, we face foreseeable catastrophe." With that grim assessment, Massachusetts Institute of Technology emeritus professor Carroll L. Wilson last week introduced a report of the Workshop on Alternative Energy Strategies (WAES). Conceived, organized, and directed by Wilson, WAES was an effort to assess energy prospects for the noncommunist world from 1985 to 2000. It is the product of two and a half years of research by 75 persons. Members came from 12 major western oil-consuming nations, plus three oil exporters: Mexico, Venezuela, and Iran. The participants were chosen by Wilson from industry, finance, and academia. Yet, "each person had to be free to represent his own views rather than those of his organization," says Wilson. U.S. participant Thornton F. Bradshaw, president of Atlantic Richfield, stresses the unanimity of the panel. "The conclusion is clear/' he says. "The world is running out of time, and there is no place to hide." One key to the WAES forecast is the panel's belief that energy demand has a built-in momentum and will rise over the next few decades even with strenuous conservation efforts. By assuming a range of values for economic growth rates, for oil and energy prices, and for government policies, and then investigating the probable reactions of individual nations to each set of external circumstances, WAES estimates that energy demand in the year 2000 will reach 200 to 250% that of 1972. A demand of 81 million bbl of oil per day or its energy equivalent in 1972 will rise to 160 million to 207 million bbl per day by 2000. Demand, in this case, means the amount of energy that consuming nations would use if they could get it. They may not get it, however, if they insist on oil. The WAES report points out that nations of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries well may decide that oil in the ground is worth more than money they can't usefully spend. The WAES group believes that an OPEC ceiling on production, depending on its level, could open a gap between supply and demand as early as 1981. Before this happens, the oil importing nations must be able to make up the difference with other forms of energy— which, in the immediate future, can only be coal and nuclear power. 8
C&EN May 23, 1977
The WAES report is in general agreement with the Carter Administration's energy assessment. Energy adviser James Schlesinger has called the report "excellent." "The basic danger of the world energy situation," it says, "is that it could become critical before it seems serious The energy gaps that open up beyond 1985, if perceived, are often dismissed with the explanation that 'something will turn up.' " WAES, on the other hand, finds that the opportunities for closing the gaps will require enormous efforts and major capital investments, with lead times of 10 or more years. "And most of these efforts should be well under way by 1980 to 1985." D
Polyester resins may profit from energy plan Unsaturated polyester resins are expected to get a boost from the Carter energy program and from government-mandated auto mileage levels. About 80% of unsaturated polyester resins go into glass-fiber-reinforced plastics, for which the automotive industry is the biggest customer. More stringent mileage standards are expected to force down the weight of autos, promoting the use of lighter-weight materials such as glass-fiber-reinforced plastics. Polyesters may also face a nice break in raw materials costs. The price of crude oil will not rise sharply, even under Carter's energy proposals, according to James J. Young, vice president and general manager of the resins and coatings division of Owens-Corning Fiberglas. He says that the price of oil from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries probably will stabilize at $13 a bbl. Domestic crude, now priced at $7.80 a bbl, will rise gradually as new oil is discovered and priced at world levels. This likely will produce relatively stable prices for both polyester resins and their raw materials. Contributing to a good raw material cost position, Young notes, is abundant availability. New capacity for primary petrochemical-derived intermediates coming on stream will result in overall capacity being sufficient through 1980. In the specific case of styrene, the main intermediate for polyester resins, one new plant in 1976 and another plant this year will satisfy demand through 1980, he says. Young believes that total U.S. consumption of unsaturated polyester resins will reach a record 1.1 billion lb in 1977 and more than 1.3 bil-
lion lb by 1978. Polyester use may double by 1981. According to Young, the increase in polyester resin output will parallel growth in glass-fiber-reinforced plastics. The total amount of such laminate produced could reach 3 billion lb by 1981, an annual compound growth rate of 14%, Young says. G
U. K. firms to build Soviet methanol plants The Soviet Union is buying two huge methanol plants from the U.K. The $250 million contract signed in London last week with Techmashimport is being shared by Davy Powergas. part of the Davy International group, and Klôckner Ina Industrial Plants Ltd., both London-based. It covers the design, engineering, and construction of the plants. One will go up at Tomsk in Siberia, and the other at Gubakha in the Urals. Each will have a daily output capability of 2500 metric tons when it comes on stream in about four years. According to Davy Powergas, they will be the largest plants of their kind anywhere. Natural gas from the sizable U.S.S.R. reserves will be used as feedstock for conversion to methanol using low-pressure technology developed by Imperial Chemical Industries. The contract includes sale of ICFs catalysts valued at about $20 million. The contract is reputed to be the largest signed to date between the U.K. and the U.S.S.R. The Soviet Union will sell the methanol on world markets. But a significant aspect is an agreement by ICI and Klockner's sister company, Klôckner Chemie of West Germany, to buy back some of the output. This in turn will assure the U.S.S.R. of hard currency to help pay for the facilities. In connection with this latest contract, ICI will need increasing quantities of methanol when its large protein plant now being built at Billingham, England, starts up in 1979 (C&EN, Oct. 11,1976, page 25). It will use the methanol for growing bacteria in a large continuous fermentation unit. The product will be sold as a high-protein animal feed supplement. I d ' s current methanol-producing capability stands at 600,000 metric tons annually. The company has two plants at its Teeside complex. The Soviet methanol will help ICI maintain its customer supply position. Klôckner Chemie, part of the Klôckner group headquartered in Duisburg, West Germany, will sell the methanol it buys locally. D
