Need a highly basic oil soluble sulfonate? Consider Witco's new Hybase® Magnesium Sulfonates. Witco Chemical's synthetically produced overbased magnesium sulfonates Hybase M-300 and M-400 find application in fuel and lube oil additives, and as corrosion inhibitors. Hybase magnesium sulfonates are recommended for marine or stationary diesels requiring separate cylinder-type lubrication, and as a corrosion inhibiting additive for diesel and automotive crankcase lubricants. Hybase magnesium sulfonates are excellent sources of magnesium to prevent vanadium corrosion which occurs in turbines and boilers. Additional benefits of using Hybase magnesium sulfonate in fuel additives are rust prevention, control of acid smut, sludge dispersency, ash modification and detergency. In the last three decades, Witco Chemical's Sonneborn Division research has made tremendous strides in the production and planned modification of petroleum sulfonates, and in the development of new industrial applications for these versatile compounds. Witco manufactures the broadest range of top quality oil and water soluble petroleum sulfonates in the world. So if you need a magnesium sulfonate...consider the petroleum sulfonate pioneer...Witco Chemical.
Quality sulfonates: yesterday, today and tomorrow. r
Witco
Chemical
277 Park Avenue,
Sonneborn Division New York, N.Y 10017.
DSend technical data on sulfonates. D Have sales representative call. Name: Company: Address:
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C&EN Nov. 5, 1973
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Strong oil demand forecast for 1974 Demand for petroleum products will continue to grow vigorously in 1974— up 6.1% by volume—in spite of inflation and a slower growth in the economy. At the same time, the downward trend of total domestic output of crude oil and natural gas liquids will continue, dropping about 1.8%, according to statistics developed by the Independent Petroleum Association of America and disclosed at IPAA's annual meeting in Houston, Tex. The gain in demand for petroleum in 1974, though large compared to past gains, will be below the estimated increase for 1973 of 6.7% by volume. Consumption in 1974 will average 18.5 million barrels (of 42 gallons) a day. Demand for gasoline, the chemical industry's major competitor for petroleum raw materials, is expected to grow 4.6% in 1974, compared to an estimated growth of 5.4% this year. Growth will slow because fewer new cars are expected to be sold next year and more of the new cars sold will be smaller, and because of gasoline conservation programs. Offsetting these factors will be reduced engine efficiencies resulting from auto pollution controls, the added weight of auto safety equipment, and the continued popularity of power accessories. The petroleum supply needed to meet demand in 1974, including some exports, will amount to 18.7 million barrels daily, up 986,000 barrels daily from 1973. Domestic sources will supply less than 60% of the total for the first time. Actual production from U.S. wells in 1974 is forecast by IPAA's production capacity committee as 10.8 million barrels daily, including 9.0 million barrels of crude oil and 1.7 million barrels of natural gas liquids. On the basis of this estimate, 1974 production would fall some 600,000 barrels a day below the peak year of 1970. IPAA's production capacity committee has left itself a loophole, however. The committee points out that improved prices would stimulate the search for new reserves. It says that because "it is difficult, if not impossible, to evaluate statistically the ingenuity and resourcefulness of the industry in response to improved economic incentives . . . production in 1974 could be greater than estimated." Domestic refineries will be fed almost 13 million barrels of crude oil daily in 1974, up from just over 12.5 million barrels in 1973. Even so, some 600,000 barrels a day of additional refined products will have to be imported next year to boost total product imports to about 3.5 million barrels daily. Crude oil imports will average more than 3.9 million barrels a day. Any interruption of imports of refined products or crude oil could lead
to rationing of fuels, IPAA's supply and demand committee concludes. With mandatory allocation already begun for some fuels, such as propane and distillate fuel oils, the next step could be allocation of all oils, including gasoline and crude, the committee says. A bill calling for all oil products to be allocated has passed the House and a similar bill is now before the Senate. These bills indicate to Duke R. Ligon, director of the Interior Department's Office of Oil and Gas, that Congress has awakened to the energy crisis and is reacting emotionally to a very real problem. Mr. Ligon opposes more allocation programs for several reasons. For one, he notes, gasoline use declines in winter but output of gasoline continues high as a result of heavy refinery throughputs to meet fuel oil demands. Thus, gasoline allocation is not needed now. "Why create paperwork and a bureaucracy unnecessarily?" Mr. Ligon asks. For another, just setting up such programs leads to problems which Congress doesn't recognize, Mr. Ligon says. The Office of Oil and Gas presently has its hands full establishing procedures for the distillate and propane programs; training personnel; educating the public, industry, and state officials as to the meaning of the programs; and identifying problem areas. Some other defects exist in the proposed allocation laws, Mr. Ligon says. If a proposal for a pro rata sharing of products in excess of the 1972 level is adopted, refiners may have less incentive to maximize operating levels. When capacity utilization is above 85 to 95%, profit on succeeding barrels of throughput is sometimes marginal. This in addition to cost of living guidelines means that production above the 1972 level could result in little or no additional profit. Refiners then might be satisfied with lower operating rates than they would be otherwise.
Tenneco exec sees chemicals slowdown Although this year will be an outstanding one for chemicals, and 1974 figures could be even better, the industry had better retain its perspectives. "We're not all that good," says Raymond H. Marks, president of Tenneco Chemicals. Speaking at a Conference Board meeting in New York City, Mr. Marks said that chemical industry sales likely will be 9% ahead of 1972. After-tax profits probably will be almost 10% ahead of last year. Behind this performance, he says, lies a booming demand for chemicals that has allowed the industry to operate its plants full out and achieve profitable efficiencies. Dollar devaluation minimized import competition and provided opportunities for
high profit exports that are unencum bered by Phase IV price controls. Nevertheless, says Mr. Marks, the industry finds itself in 1973's fourth quarter facing inflationary wage settle ments, rising distribution costs, fuel and feedstock shortages, and Phase IV price controls. Demand for chemicals will continue to be strong next year, with sales rising past $80 billion. How ever, neither the growth in sales nor profits in 1974 will be as great as it was this year, primarily because of short ages of raw materials and plant capaci ty. Mr. Marks points out that very few new plants will be coming on stream next year but says that "If we can get some relief on raw materials and ener gy, there can be some new capital in vestment."
Chemical sales growth in 1974 won't match 1973's Annual gain in sales
Basic chemicals Plastics, synthetic rubber, synthetic fibers Drugs Soaps, detergents, toiletries Paints and varnishes Gum and wood chemicals Agricultural chemicals Miscellaneous chemicals
1972-73
1973-74
10%
7%
10 9
7 9
7 7 7 13 7
6 5 5 10 6
Source: Tenneco Chemicals
Mr. Marks pegs 1974 performance for various segments of the industry this way: • Sales of basic chemicals will in crease only 7%, compared to a 10% in crease this year, primarily because of energy, feedstock, and capacity limita tions. • Plastics and synthetic rubber pro ducers will remain embattled with feedstock shortages and government re strictions and will be unable to meet demand. • The drug industry will enjoy the same growth rate in sales next year as it did this year (9%). However, with the Food and Drug Administration keeping a close watch on many ethical and proprietary drugs, additional con trols may dampen sales. • Sales of soaps, detergents, and toiletries will ^increase next year, but not as rapidly as they did this year. • Crude tall oil and woodstump supply shortages will hold sales of gum and wood chemicals to a 5% gain. • Paint and varnish sales will have a lower growth rate next year because of reduced housing starts. • Agricultural chemicals, the biggest gainers in 1973 with a 13% growth in sales, will set the pace again in 1974 with 10% sales growth. Crop acreage will be expanded. Fertilizer, herbicides, and insecticides will be used to maximize yields of farm prod ucts, a major factor in future U.S. ex port sales.
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