The Doctorafe Pipeline
to the Doctorate degree. Figure 1 depict3 the shape and volume of the elementary school-high school-college-gradurtte school pipeline as i t exists today. I t begins a t birth md, for the doctorate, continuen untd graduation some 27 years later. Although future doctorates camrot be individndv identified s t birth,. thev " are nonetheless amone the aee - e-r o w. a t this m i n t and enter the education pipeline with thk total group born each year. The coutent of the pipeline a t m y given time, i.e., the total number of students a t each stage, can he used as a predictor of future output a t various stages provided reasonably accurate patterns of past trends m e available. A schematic depicting the current length of the doctorate pipeline is shown in Figure 2. As has been stated earlier, it begins a t birth and cont,inues until graduation some 27 years later. Although the concept is obvious, its implications are frequently overlooked. Potential doctorates for 1970 to 1996 are already in the pipeline. Doctorates for the first half of the decade of the '70's are already in graduate school. Doctorates far the last half of the '70's are dready in college or are currently seniols in high school. The implications to be drawn from Figure 2 run deeper than a simple recitation of numbers. For example, if i t w e x to be determined that new forms of graduate education are required to equip new doctorates to meet specid needs and utiliaatiun patterns that might be predicted for the '70's, when should such changes be initiated? I t is obvious that unless such changes are iuitiated in the very near future and involve only the last year or so of the graduate program, they could not materially affect the doctorates produced during the first several years of the decade. More substantial changes which might involve all five years of the graduate program and even the degree itself, would likewise need to be implemented fairly soon if they are intended to affect the training of doctorates emerging during the last half of the decnde. The important point here is not whether changes should or should not be made, but the time frame involved in doctoral education. Preeipiious aet,ion a t any point in time will affect flow through the pipeline in different ways a t different stages, with the consequences not becoming apparent until some future year. A serious reduction in the level of graduate fellowship and g r ~ d u a t eresearch support for a year or two, for example, would reduce the number of college graduates entering graduate school with a resulting reduction in the number of doctorates produced five and six years thereafter. A prolonged decrease in opportunities far graduate study would, in turn, have an effect on the career choices of first-
science and e&neering doctorates but also on the students currently in the pipeline and on the pipeline itself.'
MEMBERSHIP DIVISION AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY 115.5 SIXTIII:NTH ST.,N.W. WASHINGTON. D.C. 20036
Figure 1. Shope and volume of the present elementary rchool-high rchool-college-graduate school pipeline. Figure 2.
(above)The current longthof thedocwmte pipeline.
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68
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Journal o f Chemical Education
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. Taken in part from the April, 1970 Issue of L'ManpowerComments!'
