-
The Educational Continuum: A Demographic Perspective Teachers have a proclivity to heeome so intensely involved with the day-to-day demands of their profession that they seldom take the time to look verv far into the future or. indeed. to look around at what is happening i n rducation in general. Teachers tend to live from school year to school year, from srmrster ro srmestrr, and on orranion. w e n from class torlnss.Thry arr concerned, r~ghtly,about the students currently in their classrooms and laboratories, hut how often do teachers think about students as individuals moving through the educational continuum? How often do high school and college teachers think about the characteristics of today's second eraders? Yet. those second eraders will find themselves in our classrooms after a oredictablvaoorooriate number of wars have elaosed. ~, 'l'hr dependrncy of onr rdurational lrwlon anofhrr is f h i underlying theme o i a comprehmsive and far-ranging report by Harold 1.. Hodgkinson' which describes the changes in the composition of the population moving through our educational system and the corresponding rapid and far-reaching changes that will probahly occur as these groups move through it. I t is a simple fact that virtually all of today's high school seniors 12 years earlier entered elementary school. Thus, if the characteristics of today's first graders can be described with reasonable accuracy, forecasts can he made about the cohort that will graduate from high school 12 years from now. The "Baby Boom"-the period hetween 1946 and 1964 when 70 million people were born in the U.S.-had a significant impact on all levels of the educational system. The problems associated with expansion to accommodate the Baby Boomers and subsequent contraction as thev moved throueh . the svstem are well known to teachers. Demographers tell us that changes as drastic as those wrought by the baby boom lie ahead. Striking population shifts have accompanied growth of the "Sunbelt" states. The rapid increase in minorities among the youth group is here to stay. For example, California now has a "majority of minorities" in its elementary schools and 25 of our large city school systems have "minority majorities". Other important demographic trends involve the changing family status, changes derivative of affirmative action programs, and the growing number of Asian immigrants with their recognized facility in mathematics and the ohvsical sciences. Amone" the more interestine imolicatims 181these k~ndi,otchanges for the educntional system a1 the ~ecundaryand college level, according to demographers, are:
-
~ , ~ .. .
..
" .
A decline in the number of college graduates who will pursue eraduate-level studies in the arts and sciences. .\ major increase in part-time college students and a decline of a h w t I million in full-timr sfudrntr. Oi today's 12 million students, only about 2 million are lull-time, i n residence, and 18-22 years of age. A major increase in the number of college students who need both financial and academic assistance. A continuing increase in the number of college graduates who will get a job that requires no college degree. Currently 20%of all college graduates are in this situation. Continued increases in graduate-level enrollments in business. Undergraduate enrollments in arts and sciences courses will increase, but not as majors. Increasing numhers of talented minority youth choosing the military as their educational route, both due to cost and as a
'
Institute for Educational Leadership. Inc.. 1001 Connecticut Ave.. N.W., Suite 310, Washington. D.C. 20036.
means of direct access to "high technology" work-related enperience. Major increases in adult and continuing education outside of college and university settings. Continuine mouos ,. hieh .. droo-out rates amone certain ethnic~" from the educational ryxtem (for example, about 40moof Hispanic itudmts currently complete high schodl. ~
.~
Nationally, there has been a decline of about 13%in public school students in the 1970-80 decade. This figure, however, averages out big regional differences, leading to apparently contradictory agendas in different parts of the country. The 12 Sunbelt states must ulan for " erowth from kinderearten throueh graduate school. where" as the rrmaindrr of thr states murt plan for continuing declines in serondary school populations. Further, in stated with increasing numbers of young peoplr, the minoritv pool is increasing.The public schools in these states can expect to have a "majority of minorities" in the next decade. Such national diversity of needs suggests that it will become increasingly difficult to argue for unified responses a t the federal level. Same major problems facing the higher education system concern the work that will be done by its graduates. For example, over 18,000 doctorates will be awarded in the humanities during the 1980's with only a handful of jobs in teaching available for their recipients. Although the job market is better far doctoral scientists and engineers, their numhers have grown since 1973 hy 52% to 364,000. Currently, foreign students account for 43% of those enrolled in graduate engineering programs and 36% of those in mathematics and computer science graduate programs. In addition, the Bureau of Lahor Statistics projects that of the current group of college students. one in five will eraduata and work in a iob that reauires no c o l l ~ e eedueotmn nr d l . In 1372, one in seven workem had a college degree; in 1982, one in four did.The major problem dues not appear to he the nbility ofthe economy to producequality jobs, rather it rs the increasing number of college graduates entering the work force. For example, the numher of graduates entering the work force annually grew from 575,000 in the 1960's to 1.43 million in the 1970's. The standard template for undergraduate education (eight consecutive semesters to graduation with a bachelor's degree) apparently is not the path taken by even a simple majority of students. Studies over the last 20 years indicate that 46% of the students admitted to a four-year baccalaureate program graduate on time and from the institution they entered. If the time is extended to seven years, about 70% of the students will have graduated from some institution. Instead of eritizing part-time and older students with family and job responsibilities, perhaps the educational template needs to he revised to allow far a variahle time for a student's education. The educational system seems to be fiercely dedicated to the time required far an education, rather than in its content or outcome. The kinds of demographic changes described are not figments of an active imagination. They are reality. As the educational needs of this country change, so must the response of the various units that comprise the educational continuum. Increased opportunities for creative responses lie ahead. Therein lies the challenge. At the same time, tremendous responsibility far the future rests with the educational svstem and its ahilitv to resoond effeetivelv and efficientlv to theie kinds ofdemugraphic changm. The major tnsk teachers face is to incrrasr the rffurt -and pn,hohly tc, change the nature of that rtiort-to bring students up toaccepted standnrds. It is not to lower JJL the standards.
.. ..
Volume 63
Number 1 January 1966
1
