The Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources of Small

Downloaded by CENTRAL MICHIGAN UNIV on December 8, 2015 | http://pubs.acs.org Publication Date (Web): December 3, 2015 | doi: 10.1021/bk-2015-1206.ch003

Chapter 3

The Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources of Small Developing Countries – A Case Study of the Republic of Macedonia Trajče Mitev,1 Tomas Custodio,2 Kiril D. Hristovski,*,2 and Jon W. Ulrich3 1Faculty of Natural and Technical Sciences, University “Goce Delčev”– Štip, 2000, Republic of Macedonia 2The Polytechnic School, Ira A. Fulton Schools of Engineering, Arizona State University, Mesa, Arizona, 85212, United States 3Applied Sciences and Mathematics, College of Letters and Sciences, Arizona State University, Mesa, Arizona, 85212, United States *E-mail: [email protected]. Tel: + 1 480 727 1291.

In absence of high-resolution climate-change model predictions, employing empirical data collected over a long period may be the only viable option to predict the climate change implications affecting small and developing countries where the socio-economic structure is strongly rooted in water dependent sectors such as agriculture or energy production. The overarching goal of this study is to demonstrate the suitability and significance of employing empirically obtained historical data in predicting the impact of future global climate change trends in a small country like the Republic of Macedonia. The climate change effects on the national surface water resources of Macedonia were assessed by (1) examining temperature trends and other descriptors of global warming spanning over 50 years; and (2) testing three data-driven hypotheses. The 50-year historical records describe statistically significant trends: increase in national average temperatures, surface water resources depletion, and fluctuations in the magnitude of precipitation. Realizations of such grim scenarios could create

© 2015 American Chemical Society In Water Challenges and Solutions on a Global Scale; Loganathan, et al.; ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2015.

substantial socio-economic and environmental challenges for the Republic of Macedonia if adequate mitigative measures are not implemented.


Introduction Concerns of climate change—enabled extreme weather events have risen over the last decade (1–3). Arguments against the greenhouse gas induced climate shifts are slowly and steadily being silenced by the overwhelming evidence, which steadily emerges as the number of record temperatures continue to increase (4–8). These trends offer nothing more than grim projections of future scenarios (9–12). Published predictions from climate change models generally project increase in temperatures and changes in precipitation and surface water hydrology on a regional scale; however, for small countries, which may encompass only a small portion of a larger region, the resolution of even high resolution climate change models generates a high-level of uncertainty on a local or national scale (13–17). As such, these global models are often rendered unsuitable for predicting climate changes or developing national or local mitigation strategies that would enable enhanced socio-economic and ecological resilience of small countries. Alterations in temperature, precipitation, surface hydrology, and subsequent impacts on the quality and quantity of national water resources could have multifaceted environmental, socio-economic, and political implications, and be one of the main factors determining the level of seriousness of these climate change consequences (15, 18–23). Specifically, climate change consequences can prove to be quite significant for small and especially developing countries where the socio-economic structure is strongly rooted in water dependent sectors such as agriculture or energy production (24–27). In such small countries, employing empirical data collected over a long period may be the only viable option to ascertain the validity of global climate model projections on a local or regional scale. The Republic of Macedonia, located in the southeastern corner of Europe, could be considered a model of a small developing country with fragile socioeconomic and ecological systems, for which the global climate models predict increase in temperatures and water scarcity indices (16, 24, 25, 28–35). However, these models do not provide specific predictions on a local level, and as such are impractical in addressing the impacts of climate change on the smaller regions of this small country. The overarching goal of this study is to demonstrate the suitability and significance of employing empirically obtained historical data in predicting the impact of future global climate change trends in a small country or its region. To address this goal, the climate change impacts on the national surface water resources of Macedonia were assessed by using temperature trends and other descriptors of global warming. Specifically, a set of three hypotheses were addressed:

38 In Water Challenges and Solutions on a Global Scale; Loganathan, et al.; ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2015.


(1) H1: The average temperature on national level has exhibited an increasing trend over the last 50 year period; (2) H2: Surface water hydrology has exhibited a declining trend over the last 50 year period; (3) H3: There is statistically significant correlation between the average temperatures and the average surface water hydrology.

Extensive temperature, surface water flow rate, and precipitation data were obtained from the National Hydro-Meteorological and the State Statistical Offices of the Republic of Macedonia for the period 1961-2012. A set of regression analyses were conducted to test the hypotheses and examine whether statistically significant correlation patterns exist among the different environmental determinants.

Methodology Data Collection A dataset for the period 1961 – 2010 was obtained from National Hydrometeorological Office of the Republic of Macedonia by transcribing the official log books. Data from the period 2011-2012 was obtained from the State Statistical Office of the Republic of Macedonia (36, 37). Data from 2013 was not available during the time this study was conducted, and as such, it was not included in the analysis. Temporal demographics estimates were also obtained from the French National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED) (38, 39). The dataset encompassed (1) temperature data from 10 locations across the country; (2) flow rate data from 14 measuring stations located on the rivers across the 7 watersheds; and (3) precipitation data 12 rain gage stations dispersed in each watershed. Figure 1 provides a map of the Republic of Macedonia, and shows the locations from which data was obtained. Each watershed was characterized by at least one dataset containing temperature, flow rate, and precipitation data. Considering that Macedonia is relatively small in population (~ 2 million) and territory (~25,000 km2), the national averages, estimated from the extensive data sets, were considered to be representative of the entire country (31, 37, 40).



40 Figure 1. Watershed map of the Republic of Macedonia with data collection locations for temperature, river flow rates, and precipitation.

In Water Challenges and Solutions on a Global Scale; Loganathan, et al.; ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2015.


Data Analysis and Hypotheses Testing To address the goal of this study, three hypothesis-driven aspects of the obtained data were examined: (1) temporal changes in national average temperature were evaluated by testing hypothesis H1; (2) temporal changes in surface water hydrology were evaluated by testing hypothesis H2; and (3) correlation between temperature and surface water hydrology was examined by testing hypothesis H3. Additionally, a regression analysis matrix, which is presented in Table 1, was generated to (1) examine the correlation between two climate variables; (2) provide additional evidence in support of the three hypotheses; and (3) determine the existence of any statistically significant patterns that could be used as a basis for future prediction. Patterns characterized by statistical significance of p ≤ 0.05 were identified as statistically significant correlations. Patterns characterized by statistical significance of p > 0.10 were rendered statistically insignificant, while patterns for which 0.05 < p < 0.10 were characterized as potentially significant. Normal distribution analyses were used to identify any outliers, which may have occurred as a result of atypical extreme events (e.g. 100-year floods). To determine the effects of climate change on precipitation intensity, the changes in magnitude of annual precipitation were also examined by correlating them to the temperature and time variables. For adequate comparison and where needed, each dataset was normalized against a 30-year average comprised of the period between 1961 and 1991.

Table 1. Regression Analysis Matrix and Employed in Support of the Hypotheses Testing and Obtained p Values


Results and Discussion


Temporal Changes in Average National Temperatures Figure 2 illustrates the temporal changes in the average national temperature over the period 1961-2012. The statistically significant correlation (p < 1.7 x 10-4) clearly indicates a global warming trend and unmistakably supports hypothesis H1. The linear model Summarized in Table 2 projects an increase of 0.02 0C/year in the average national temperature although some regions may experience greater or lesser changes. These projections suggest that the average national temperature will reach about 12 0C by year 2060, which is an increase of about 1.7 0C when compared to the 30-year national average based on the period between 1961 and 1991.

Figure 2. Statistically significant increase in national average temperature for the period 1961-2012 (n = 514; p < 1.7 x 10–4). The error bars represent standard deviation.

Temporal Changes in National Surface Water Resources It is inevitable that these temperature increases will have deleterious effects on the national surface water resources in the Republic of Macedonia. Figure 3 illustrates a statistically significant trend (p < 7.5 x 10–4) in support of H3, and demonstrates a decrease of national average surface water resources with the rise of average temperatures. This pattern correlates well with the statistically significant trend in Figure 4, which describes a decrease in the national average surface water flow rates for the period 1961–2012 and supports hypothesis 42 In Water Challenges and Solutions on a Global Scale; Loganathan, et al.; ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2015.


H2 (p < 0.026). Although the surface water trend does not consider the two outliers resulting from extreme flooding events, a subsequent regression analysis, conducted with inclusion of these outliers, suggests there is a trend that indicates statistical significance (p < 0.06). Further, a detailed pattern analysis of the data suggests that the 15-year period between 1980 and 1995 has witnessed three-fold decrease trend (p < 1.2 x 10–4) in the surface water hydrology as characterized by a threefold decrease in the average river flow rates (Figure 5). This decrease was mirrored by a statistically significant decrease in the average annual precipitation on national level during the 1979 – 1994 period (p < 7.5 x 10-5) as illustrated in Figure 5. This is not surprising considering that the surface water hydrology in the Republic of Macedonia is directly related to the annual precipitation as illustrated in Figure 6 (p < 1.52 x 10–8).

Figure 3. Statistically significant decrease in national average flow rates with increase in average temperatures for the period 1961-2012 (n = 1,216; p < 7.5 x 10–4). The error bars represent standard deviation. One could argue that this decreasing trend in surface water resources could be attributed to population and economic growth, rather than to climate change. However, the validity of these conjectures can be easily negated by three arguments. First, during the period between 1975 and 2003, there was no construction of major water reservoirs, which could have caused significant impact on the national surface hydrology (41), yet there was a significant decrease in surface water resources. Second, during the same period, the Macedonian economy was affected by a crippling economic recession, which negates the conjecture that the decrease of surface water resources could have been affected by a positive economic growth (32, 42, 43). Third, as illustrated in Figure 7, surface water resources show improvement water with growth in population during the period 1988 – 2010, negating the conjecture that suggests the decrease in water resources is primarily related to population growth. Consequently, it 43 In Water Challenges and Solutions on a Global Scale; Loganathan, et al.; ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2015.


is evident that climate change, as manifested by increase in average national temperature, have been the major contributor to the diminishing surface water resources in the Republic of Macedonia.

Figure 4. Statistically significant decrease in national average river flow rates for the period 1961-2012 (n = 702; p < 0.026). The circled data points represent outliers. The error bars represent 95% confidence intervals.

Figure 5. Statistically significant decrease in national average precipitation (solid line and diamonds) for the period 1979-1994 (n = 180; p < 1.2 x 10–4) mirrored by a decreasing trend (dashed line and squares) of the average river flow rates for the period (n = 210; p < 7.5 x 10–5). The error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. 44 In Water Challenges and Solutions on a Global Scale; Loganathan, et al.; ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2015.


Figure 6. Statistically significant correlation (n = 1,300; p < 1.52 x 10–8) between average flow rates and precipitation on national level demonstrating the strong dependence of surface water resources on annual precipitation in the Republic of Macedonia. The error bars represent standard deviation.

Table 2. Summary of the Linear Models Obtained from the Statistically Significant Trends (SST); t Represents the Modeled Year



Figure 7. Increase of surface water resources with growth in population during the period 1988 – 2010 negates the conjecture that the decrease in water resources is primarily due to population growth.

Effects of Climate Change on Precipitation Intensity Figure 8 illustrates the increasing trend resulting from the annual changes in average precipitation (▵ precipitation/year) during the period of 1962 to 2012. As illustrated by the trend line, the magnitude of these precipitation fluctuations has been slowly increasing over the last 50 years. This statistically significant trend (p < 0.007) is indicative of future extreme weather conditions characterized by significant changes in precipitation between years or seasons. This trend typically may not change the overall average hydrological picture of the country because it may be restricted to small regions. For example, one small region of the country may be affected by intensive rainfall during one year, while another small region may be affected with such rainfall the following year. However, the effects of this growing trend are becoming more evident by the increasing number of short-term floods in small town and rural areas across the country (44–48). The regression linear model suggests an increase in average precipitation fluctuations on national level of up to 50 mm/year by 2060, potentially characterized by short rapid rainfall periods during spring and summer seasons and dry winters with limited snowfall. 46 In Water Challenges and Solutions on a Global Scale; Loganathan, et al.; ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2015.


Figure 8. Statistically significant (n = 600; p < 0.007) trend of increasing magnitudes in annual average precipitation changes (▵ precipitation/year) during the period of 1962 to 2012.

The Implications of Climate Changes on Macedonian Water Resources, Economy, and Society The statistically significant trends of increasing temperatures, surface water resources depletion, and fluctuations in the magnitude of precipitation predict grim scenarios. The arrival of water shortages and increases in the number of extreme weather events is inevitable and it should be anticipated. These implications have the potential to significantly affect Macedonian agriculture and food production, both as a result of loss of irrigable agricultural land and flooding. The harbingers of these grim scenarios are already emerging as exemplified by the increased number of local and regional floods, some of which exhibit never-before recorded magnitudes (49, 50). As hinted by the recent flood damages in neighboring Serbia, the consequences of such scenarios could cause devastating effects on the fragile economies, with possible tangible costs exceeding 20% of the national budgets (51, 52). However, when the intangible damages stemming from eco-system degradation and loss of biodiversity are considered, these costs have a potential to exacerbate the impacts of climate changes on the Macedonian water resources, economy, and society (2, 34). Additionally, considering the interconnectedness of surface hydrology and groundwater resources, it is realistic to postulate that groundwater resources will also be adversely affected because of aquifer depletion and contamination (35, 53). This environmental implication of climate change is especially somber because the majority of Macedonian population depends on groundwater as potable water 47 In Water Challenges and Solutions on a Global Scale; Loganathan, et al.; ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2015.

source (54). Catalyzed by the increase in temperatures in the future, demands for both surface and groundwater are expected to increase in Macedonia (55, 56). In turn, this increase could cause new or intensify the existing water restrictions, which have become a regular occurrence over the last couple of decades (47, 57, 58).


Conclusions The analysis of a half-century historical record of climate change indicators in the Republic Macedonia support the overarching low-resolution predictions of global scale models and generate statistically significant trends applicable to smaller regions. These trends predict significant impacts on the hydrological prospects of Macedonia, which could create substantial socio-economic and environmental challenges for the country. They necessitate development of an adequate national water resource management strategies that incorporate (1) a high-detail threat assessment of current and future water deficiencies; (2) an evolving platform comprised of specific and evolving action plans to foresee and address local and national water needs and opportunities, with emphasis on highest risks and priorities; and (3) a national integrated water resource management system run by administration capable of mitigating the effects of the imminent grim scenarios. Development and implementation of such strategies and system, however, is not possible without creating the next generation of homegrown water professionals, who would have the expertise and skills to address this complex issue of national importance.

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The Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources of Small

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