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18 The Impact of Increasing Paper Consumption

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and Resource Limitations on Alkaline Papermaking R. W. HAGEMEYER J. M. Huber Corporation, 6855 Jimmy Carter Blvd., NW, Building V, Suite 2300, Norcross, GA 30071

Despite moderation from historical growth rates, world demand for paper is expected to more than double within the next twenty-one years. Forecasts place consumption in the year 2000 at between 350 and 450 million metric tons. Under static conditions, this volume would relate to a corresponding increase in the various elements required to produce it. Conditions will be far from static with significant changes forecast in the cost of fiber, water, energy, chemicals, machinery, and capital. During the period, fiber and energy are expected to double in real cost, while the price of water for a grass-roots location is forecast to triple. These factors will create an increasing economic incentive to utilize systems that conserve the various inputs. Alkaline papermaking with its potential savings in fiber, energy, water, and chemicals is a practical and proved option. A significant additional benefit is the accompanying improvement in paper permanence.

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century ago, the rapid rise in printing paper consumption was creating a growing shortage of the traditional rag and linen papermaking fibers. This situation prompted the development of alternate materials and procedures for book paper production. Unfortunately, in the process, an undesirable side effect crept in; namely, there was a reduction in the permanence of high-quality book paper. The significance of this deficiency was not recognized widely until about 1950 when the ©

0065-2393/81 /0193-0241$05.00/0 1981 American Chemical Society

Williams; Preservation of Paper and Textiles of Historic and Artistic Value II Advances in Chemistry; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 1981.

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Library of Congress and others started having problems with paper fragility in many of their so-called permanent reference books. Subsequent investigations determined the reduced permanence resulted from a combination of two factors, the use of wood as a source of cellulose fiber coupled with acid papermaking and sizing systems. Today, the forecast of increased paper consumption and a continued tightening in the fiber supply are again prompting some substantive changes in papermaking procedures. Fortunately, for those interested in paper durability, a desirable side effect for high quality book papers will be a return to the permanence levels of a century ago. The underlying technical factor is a move to neutral and alkaline papermaking systems both to conserve fiber and to achieve water, energy, and chemical savings. For brevity, since the two processes are similar, subsequent reference to alkaline systems will include neutral systems as well. In this chapter, the outlook for paper consumption to the year 2000 will be reviewed. Even the most conservative projections indicate the volume will more than double from present levels. The more optimistic forecasts project a tripling in consumption. Recognizing the finite limitations of the earth's resources, finding adequate quantities of the various raw materials needed to meet this doubling or tripling in demand poses a significant challenge. Following the general law of supply and demand, most raw material prices are expected to escalate at a rate exceeding that of general inflation. Specific projections for fiber, water, energy, and chemicals will be discussed. Concurrent with the increase for raw materials, the real price of paper will rise to recover the higher raw material costs. There will be a steadily increasing incentive to conserve materials and thus minimize the escalation in paper prices. Failure to achieve this could result in paper pricing itself out of some of its present markets. One practical method for conserving fiber, water, and energy is to make paper under neutral or alkaline conditions. A few papermills have already made the conversion from acid systems and many more are expected to follow. Some of the advantages to be gained and problems to be overcome will be cited. Making the change from acid to alkaline systems is not as simple as it might seem. In spite of the problems, as the economic incentives continue to grow, there will be a corresponding growth in the number of conversions. Paper Consumption Outlook As mentioned previously, the consumption of paper and paperboard is expected to more than double and possibly triple within the next twenty-one years. The sharp drop in volume accompanying the 1975


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Alkaline Papermaking

recession has caused a reassessment of the projected growth rate. Most forecasters agree that the rate at which volume escalates will moderate from the 1960-1975 average of five percent annually. All agree that total consumption will continue to grow, but there is considerable disagreement on the rate at which it will grow. To illustrate the divergence of opinion, as well as the departure from the prerecession trend line, four forecasts are compared. The reference forecast is Outlook for Pulp and Paper Consumption, Production and Trade to 1985," published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Secretariat in 1972 (I). Five years later, F AO published "World Paper and Paperboard Consumption Outlook," by an Industry Working Party (IWP) (2), and "Demand, Supply and Trade in Pulp and Paper: Trends and Prospects to 1990" (3). Finally, a composite forecast (CF) was prepared by compiling information from several sources outside the paper industry. While the composite has the disadvantage of being prepared from a disjointed set of figures, this is offset partially by the benefit of an external viewpoint. The three F A O forecasts are very comprehensive in scope with a corresponding amount of documentation. Projections by the Secretariat are built on historical trends with modifications for expected changes in population, income, literacy, and price. The Industry Working Party forecast is much more subjective and reflects the collective opinion of ten industry specialists and ninety-eight operating executives worldwide. This forecast includes both subjective and mathematical predictions. An important factor to remember when comparing these forecasts is the business environment under which they were made. The reference forecast was prepared during 1971, when world paper demand had been expanding at five percent annually for more than a decade. By contrast, the forecasts published in 1977 were prepared in the wake of the strong cyclical disturbance caused by the 1975 recession. In the case of the composite forecast, most of the projections were made in 1978. A l l the forecasts have been extrapolated to 2000 using the prevailing growth rate for the last five-year period. Looking first at the differences in the percentage growth, using 1975 volume as the index point, the expected increases are shown in Table I. Table I.

FAO IWP FAO CF

1972 1977 1977 1978

World Paper and Paperboard Consumption (1975 = 100) 1980

1985

1990

2000

146 126 127 126

183 152 156 159

231 180 196 195

373 253 316 297


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All the post-recession projections anticipate slower growth with the reduction ranging between fifteen and twenty-seven percent. However, even the most conservative forecast indicates consumption will more than double during the next twenty-one years. The actual tonnages represented in these percentages are shown in Table II. Table II. World Paper and Paperboard Consumption in Millions of Tons (Metric) FAO IWP FAO CF

1980

1985

1990

2000

207 180 182 179

260 216 223 227

328 256 280 278

530 360 452 422

1972 1977 1977 1978

These figures are for total consumption worldwide. The expected volumes for specific types of paper and for the various geographic regions are presented in the F A O reports. The outlook for the printing and writing grades, which include book papers, is somewhat better than the average. A l l of these projections call for a substantial expansion in production capacity as well as a corresponding increase in raw material demands. Recognizing the finite limitations of the earth's resources and the present demands thereon, procuring adequate quantities of suitable raw materials at an affordable cost could be the determinant of future growth in paper volume. Raw Material Outlook The following projections for key papermaking raw materials were developed by the Future Technical Needs and Trends (TNT) Committee of the Technical Association of the Pulp and Paper Industry (TAPPI) (4). Periodically, the Committee prepares long-range forecasts covering important papermaking and related activities. This serves the dual purpose of pointing out areas wherein new technology will be needed and providing the lead time for its orderly development. From a recent review of the raw materials outlook, it appears there should be adequate quantities available but at a substantial increase in their "real" cost. The expected price escalation is shown in Table III. These are average figures and may vary significantly depending upon regional situations. For example, the cost of water from local surface sources should not increase much in real dollars. On the other hand, where mining, desalination, or lengthy transport is involved, the cost will be markedly higher than from what is presently a very low base. The accelerated increase in the final ten years reflects the nearing of supply limits.


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Table III. Fiber Water Energy Chemicals

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Alkaline Papermaking Raw Material Price Index

1977

1980

1990

2000

100 100 100 100

109 120 110 105

140 180 140 120

190 300 200 140

%/Year 2.8 4.9 3.1 1.5

Regarding specific materials, fiber is a renewable resource, thus the total supply can be regulated. Unfortunately, most methods for increasing its availability, such as the harvesting of remote areas and more intensive timber management, add to its total cost. Further restrictions on the removal of timber from public lands and, in some regions, the probable allocation of a substantial acreage of arable land for agricultural use are factors that could further limit supply. On the demand side, by the year 2000, the paper industry's fiber requirement is expected to more than double. Structural wood products will continue to expand, but at a somewhat slower rate. Many sources predict a substantial increase in the volume of wood used as fuel for domestic and commercial purposes. Total demand will force the utilization of some more expensive timber sources, thus adding to the average cost. The indicated increase in the real price of fiber reflects these developments. The earth's total water resource is a constant quantity, but water quality and availability in arable regions are diminishing. Industries and municipalities are being forced to conserve water, yet total demand will continue to grow. Methods to increase supply in shortage areas include mining of ground water, transport of surface waters, and desalination. Despite the substantial additional cost, these measures will become increasingly commonplace in the years ahead. The projected increases in the price of energy is not only because of the cost of oil, but also because of investment costs for conversion of existing and new coal-burning facilities as well as a marked increase in the price of natural gas. After 1990, a world oil shortage will generate further increases. The cost of electric power will rise in line with added fuel and investment costs. Three factors are responsible for the forecast increase in chemical prices. Energy intensive materials, such as chlorine and caustic soda, will have a corresponding increase in cost. Mining and recovery expenses for natural minerals will increase with the need to utilize more remote deposits. Capital costs for additional and replacement facilities will continue to rise faster than the forecast rate of inflation. This is especially true for grass-roots plants in remote areas, which entail the additional costs of the supporting infrastructure.


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Economies Through Alkaline Papermaking In addition to its study of the paper consumption and raw materials outlook, the T N T Committee considered other external factors that could alter future paper operations. Two significant predictions were: (1) Competitive factors will limit any cost-saving adjustments in paper quality and could even force higher standards; and (2) Barring a major technological breakthrough, the real cost of paper will increase (4). Faced with the prospect of these external developments, the T N T Committee compiled a list of internal process changes that could help offset the negative factors. Actions germane to this presentation included: (1) Substantial reduction in water consumption per unit of output with further closing of white water systems; and (2) Fiber extension through lighter weights, more recycle, alkaline sizing, and increased use of fillers (4). Both of these recommendations strongly favor the move to alkaline papermaking systems. In the case of acid papermaking using rosin-alum size, some of the alumina and most of the sulfate ions remain in the white water. With recirculation, a gradual build-up occurs with the maximum level increasing as the system is closed. Eventually, the high concentration causes scale and corrosion problems that limit recirculation levels. Mills that have converted to alkaline sizing have been able to reduce water consumption by more than fifty percent. At the same time, the need for make-up water is reduced by a corresponding amount with an accompanying saving in the energy required to heat this water to process temperatures. Finally, effluent volume is reduced, plus it is already in the optimum p H range for clarification and treatment. Total savings in water and related costs can exceed fifteen dollars per ton of paper produced. Regarding the second recommendation, the cost of fiber represents twenty to twenty-five percent of the total cost of the finished paper. Thus, methods for reducing the fiber content without a compensating loss in quality or increase in manufacturing cost are of prime interest to the papermaker. Forming the web under alkaline conditions produces increased and stronger fiber bonding. Tensile and burst values from twenty to forty percent higher are common. This increase in strength can be capitalized on in several ways. One approach is to reduce fiber refining and get a sheet that is faster draining and easier to dry. This provides energy savings, a higher production rate, and the commensurate reduction in costs. An alternative approach is to make a lighter weight sheet of equal strength. A third option, which is probably the one most commonly practiced, is to reduce the fiber content by seven to ten percent and substitute an equivalent weight of filler. With fiber being more expensive than filler,


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this provides an obvious cost saving and usually results in a sheet with improved optical and printing properties. Also, under alkaline conditions, lower cost calcium carbonate can be used as a replacement for more expensive paper fillers. The combined savings are illustrated in the following simplified calculation for an actual conversion. A Midwest papermill had previously run eight percent filler in a fifty-pound high-quality offset grade. On converting to alkaline size, two major changes were made. The filler level was increased to sixteen percent and less expensive fillers were used. The primary raw material costs were as follows: Acid System Fiber furnish Titanium dioxide T i 0 extender # 1 Clay Cost per ton 2

1840 40 80 40

lb lb lb lb

@$0.17/lb @ $0.48/lb @ $0.17/lb @ $0.05/lb

$312.80 19.20 13.60 2.00 $347.60

Alkaline System Fiber furnish 1680 lb @ $0.17/lb Calcium carbonate 200 lb @ $0.07/lb # 1 Clay 120 lb @ $0.05/lb Cost per ton Savings in primary raw materials

$285.60 14.00 6.00 $305.60 $ 42.00

Other chemical and production costs were essentially a standoff. The finished sheet met all specifications and, when printed, gave superior press performance. If the reduced water costs mentioned previously are added in, the combined savings amount to fifty-seven dollars per ton or roughly ten percent of the cost of the finished paper. In addition, this paper has much better permanence. If the real cost of the fiber rises as forecast, the incentive to save fiber by going alkaline will increase by a corresponding amount. Conversion Problems With the many savings and advantages indicated, it would seem that the paper industry should be engaged in an all-out effort to make the conversion to an alkaline system. Several mills already have converted to alkaline and many more are studying the possibilities. Unfortunately, there are a number of auxiliary changes that must be made and each, in turn, represents an individual problem. Papermills that try to make a

American Chemical Society Library 1155 16* st N. W,

Williams; Preservation of Paper and Textiles of Historic and Artistic Value II Advances in Chemistry;WttMngtûft, American Chemical Washington, DC, 1981. D. 6.Society: 20036

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partial conversion of switch back and forth from one system to the other make the situation even more difficult. Without going into detail, the most common problems seem to be dirt from acid deposits that now become soluble, causing spots and breaks, different microorganisms that require a change in the slimicide/fungicide combination, and a fiber furnish that appears and reacts differently during refining, forming, pressing, and drying. Probably the most crucial change involves the machine tender who can no longer use alum as the cure-all for any operating problems. Converting to alkaline requires a total commitment at all levels from top management on down. It takes considerable time, learning, and reorientation to make the changeover. During this period, operating efficiencies drop and unsaleable production rises. It is a complex and expensive undertaking, but it pays dividends in the long run. As the economic incentives increase, there will be more conversions. Summary During the next twenty-one years, paper consumption is conservatively forecast to more than double. Optimistic projections indicate the volume may triple. Forecasts place world annual consumption in the year 2000 at between 350 and 450 million metric tons. Recognizing the finite limitations of the earth's resources, finding adequate quantities of the necessary papermaking raw materials represents a significant challenge. As demand approaches supply limits, raw material prices are expected to rise in constant dollars. By the year 2000, the index price for key papermaking materials is forecast to be fiber, 190; water, 300; energy, 200; and chemicals, 140. With this outlook for raw material prices, the paper industry must develop ways to conserve these materials and thus minimize the offsetting escalation in paper prices. Failure to accomplish this could result in paper pricing itself out of some markets. Alkaline papermaking provides several opportunities for conserving papermaking raw materials and thus should become more prevalent in the years ahead. Making the conversion from an acid to an alkaline system includes many problems, but they are solvable and the ultimate savings warrants the effort. The strength and optical properties are similar for paper made by either system, but the permanence properties of the alkaline sheet are substantially better. Literature Cited 1. "Outlook for Pulp and Paper Consumption, Production and Trade to 1985," Food Agr. Organ. U.N. 1972, (Mar.).


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2. Industry Working Party "FAO World Pulp and Paper Consumption Outlook: Phase I World Outlook for Paper and Paperboard; Phase II World Outlook for Regional Self-Sufficiency and Fiber Furnish," Food Agri. Organ. U.N. 1977, (May). 3. "Demand, Supply and Trade in Pulp and Paper: Trends and Prospects to 1990," Food Agri. Organ. U.N. 1977, (June). 4. "Future Technical Needs and Trends in the Paper Industry—III," Tech. Assoc. Pulp Paper Ind. 1979, (Mar.). RECEIVED October 23, 1979.


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