The Materials Revolution: Can we handle it?
In 1972, the prestigious brain-trust known as the Club of Rome issued a reportihat embodied the message: "Materials exhaustion l w m s as one of the horsemen of a special breed of Apocalypse that could bring civilization tumbling down." Behind the sensationalism was a messianic fusion of a t least three dominant sentiments: a serious, well-intentioned concern, a reasoned, facts-supported, limits-to-growth scenario overflowing with moral and emotional overtones, and an out-of-character neglect of important social and scientific variables that could be assumed to have pivitol hearing on the predictions set forth. [See, for example: D. H. Meadows, D. L. Meadows, J. Randers, W. W. Behrens 111, "The Limits to Growth," Universe Books, New York, 1972: 2nd ed., 19741 The impact of the message has been massive hut, for the most part, the near hysteria and the accompanying profittakina of early reactions have been replaced hv increased sensitivity t o t h e depletion issue, a n d by mork searching analyses of the facts and other realities that must govern anv inteiligent short or long term response to the matter of materials and energy limitations. [See: Science, 191.631, Fehruary 20,1976.1 -~ On the basis of these analyses, the bottom line in this matter now appears clear: The world will not run out of geologic or biologic resources; they will merely become more expensive. T h e maior is one of recoenizine areas of resource " nrohlem . depletion and of accommodating in time to shortages and substitutions. The essential task involves motivatine. -, mohiking, and managing human activity and institutions so that a .. ~ ~ r. o ~ r ipriorities ate and resDonses can be developed. 'I'he arguments of economic geologists and other qualified scientists in SuDDOrt of thr inexhaustibilitv of mineral resources rest largely on three factors. The first is that based on 1968 consumption levels, world supplies of the most extensively used elkments should last a t ieast 1300 years. (Specific examples are: phosphate rock, 1300 years; reduced carbon in coal, oil and gas, 2500 years; iron, 4.5 X lo6 years; aluminum, 2 X lo8 years; manganese, 1.3 X lo4 years.) [Goeller and Weinberg, Science, 191,683 (1976)l. The second is that, in general, consumption of mineral resources in the United States-the world's greatest consumer by far-has not grown exponentially during the past two decades as some have claimed: instead, it has remained a .~.~ r o x i m a t econstant. lv despite a rap~dlyincreasing pupulation and a s p ~ r a l ~ necong omv. ILandshere. Screnc~. (IY76)l. The third is that . 191.6.17 . a ~ t h o ; ~ the h ric~depositsof many ores ha;e been exhausted, developments of new and efficient earth-moving equipment and a" abundance of low-cost energy has permitted exploitation of lower grade ores. The cut-off grade for comer .. ore. for example, was once 3 percent; now, ore containing as little a s 0.35 percent copper can he mined economically in some nlaces. [Cook. Science. 191.677 (1976)l. . ., critically important in o"r ability to make use of available mineral resources is the development of inexpensive, inexhaustible, and otherwise satisfactory energy supplies. Althoueh known reserves of fossil fuels will last for a t least 100 years even a t 12 times our present rate of energy consumption, the cost of energy from these fuels will continue to escalate.
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editorially speaking Without alternative and less expensive enerav sources (Breeder reactors, fusion, solar and geothermalpower are possibilities), extraction of needed elements from mineral resources will become prohibitively expensive. Our biologic resources, as exemplified by the growing stock of the world's forests and by the potential for their improvement and expansion, constitute a long-term renewable source of material that can he transformed readily into plastics, fibers, drugs, dyes, and other synthetics now made from petroleum or natural gas. Glucose, obtained by hydrolysis of cellulose, and its fermentation products such as ethanol, acetone, and hutanol could become basic feedstocks for synthetic materials of the future. The weight of raw wood processed annually is about equal to the production of all metals, cements and plastics. This could he increased markedly with better management and e x ~ a n d e dmarkets. It the rase for the virtual ini~xhaustibilitvof rewurct.s is sound, the technological fesaihility of providing for s~xiety's short-term needs in mntwials and energyst reasonahl~prices is something.less. Thc pn,bllm here is not so murh s lark of knowledge or expertise as an insufficiency of commitment. Neither the government nor private industry appears willing to assume the leadership or to take the risks and the hard stands needed to obtain the scientific and technological capabilities that can prevent damaging shortages of vital materials and energy. Academic scientists are reluctant to redirect research from more prestigious and rewarding discipline-driven problems to the more diffuse, less "original," need-driven variety. What is needed is a realistic, far-reaching, forcefully-influential national policv on resource management and materials development;anda well-supported cabinet level federal agency . . charged with translating this policy . - into action. This agency would identify econom& technological and political factors that encourage or discourage good materials management and respond to these find&gs. High on its priority list should be encouragement of materials and energy research. development and exploration in the private sect&, and the implementation of a large-scale program providing serious incentives for the pursuit of basic research on materials and energy in universities. This country and the world are in the midst of a materials revolution. Our supplies of cheap energy and of many commonlv used materials have diminished to the noint that we need'to develop reliable substitutes rapidly anh get them in production without delay. Otherwise all countries and people risk major disturbances in their living standards and quality of life. We have the resources and the scientific and technological potential to make the transition smoothly and without serious social dislocation, but we must mobilize our human resources and direct our et'iurts u,ith wisdom and effiriency. \'ii,wed in terms ut the basic science involved, chemistrs and chemists have especially important responsibilities and opportunities in the materials revolution. Let us hope that the response of the chemistry profession will be no less humanistic and somewhat more constructive than that of the Club of Rome. WTL Volume 53, Number 4. April 1976 / 203
