Trace Residue Analysis - American Chemical Society

1 Statistics: A Child of Our Time? FRAUKE TSCHILTSCHKE

Downloaded by 80.82.77.83 on May 26, 2018 | https://pubs.acs.org Publication Date: July 15, 1985 | doi: 10.1021/bk-1985-0284.ch001

Department o f Philosophy, Christian Albrechts University of Kiel, Kiel, West Germany

The use of data to represent s c i e n t i f i c information has been found not only to be of modern use but also to have been a part of our society for centuries. Science and s t a t i s t i c s thus formed have explained our complex world i n more and more d e t a i l but have yet to f u l l y explain truth . . . the goal of the philosophers.

"Every year 10% of the American chemists spend 40 hours i n conference rooms and use 19 pounds of paper." Even i f t h i s statement i s not a t r u t h f u l one, i t expresses one of the w e l l e s t a b l i s h e d forms of s c i e n t i f i c statements, namely a s t a t i s t i c a l one. We are q u i t e used to d e a l i n g w i t h s t a t i s t i c s , the c o l l e c t i o n and a n a l y s i s of data and the drawing of conclusions from t h i s data ( _1_ )• I n a s c i e n t i f i c way, t h i s mode c o n s t i t u t e s no problem. On the other hand compare these two statements: "Get a shot against the f l u because only very few of the i n o c u l a t e d people w i l l get the f l u , " versus "Get a shot against the f l u , because only 3% o f the i n o c u l a t e d people w i l l get the f l u " . The second statement provides more p r e c i s e i n f o r m a t i o n than the f i r s t . S t a t i s t i c s seems to be a "magic" word of our time! S t a t i s t i c a l use has r a p i d l y increased i n our century which has i n d i c a t e d that a strong b e l i e f i s now present. I n e a r l i e r times, t h i s b e l i e f d i d not e x i s t , but are we not sure t h a t the use o f s t a t i s t i c s was not present then? Can i t be traced back to the early c i v i l i z a t i o n s ? This paper w i l l show that s t a t i s t i c s has been w i t h us f o r a long time. The techniques have g r a d u a l l y developed from simple counting or i n f o r m a t i o n gathering to e x p l a i n i n g complex phenomena w i t h only l i m i t e d i n f o r m a t i o n . Not to be f o r g o t t e n w i l l be the u l t i m a t e i n t e r a c t i v e r o l e of philosophy. Current address: Klodtstrasse 12, 2408 Tinmendorfer Strand, West Germany

0097-6156/ 85/0284-0001 $06.00/ 0 © 1985 American Chemical Society

Kurtz; Trace Residue Analysis ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 1985.

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T R A C E RESIDUE ANALYSIS


S c i e n t i f i c Thinking In former times philosophers proposed g e n e r a l i t i e s to describe l i f e . They f a i l e d i n some respects because they were out of touch w i t h r e a l i t y and d i d not look at f a c t s . The explanations were only l o g i c a l l y derived and suggested errant d i r e c t i o n s . L a t e r s c i e n t i f i c endeavor gained favor because of i t s s e l f - c o r r e c t i n g nature. Making an o b s e r v a t i o n , c o l l e c t i n g i n f o r m a t i o n , a n a l y z i n g i t , and drawing conclusions which express the reasons f o r the common behavior i n a s c i e n t i f i c law i s e x a c t l y the way s c i e n t i f i c t h i n k i n g works. I f f a c t s found l a t e r were i n c o n s i s t e n t , the g e n e r a l i t i e s were modified to i n c l u d e them. In short the understandable reason f o r an observed event was attempted to be found. Too o f t e n enough i n f o r m a t i o n simply was not a v a i l a b l e f o r adequate s c i e n t i f i c laws to be fashioned. In t h i s area, s t a t i s t i c s was found to have an e v e r - i n c r e a s i n g r o l e . A confidence l e v e l was devised that allowed l i m i t e d f a c t s to express l a r g e r g e n e r a l i t i e s . This narrowed the amount of work s c i e n t i s t s had to do to come to good conclusions (and sometimes increased the work they thought they had to do to reach a d e s i r e d c o n f i d e n c e ! ) . Conclusions or hypotheses are never absolute but are more and more c e r t a i n as the number of f a c t s a v a i l a b l e i n c r e a s e s . Nonetheless, astounding amounts of good c o n c l u s i o n s , again at a given confidence l e v e l , can be drawn from l i m i t e d f a c t s using statistics. S t a t i s t i c s i n Former Times The e a r l y r o l e of s t a t i s t i c s was e s s e n t i a l l y only i n c o l l e c t i n g f a c t s and assembling them i n an o r d e r l y way. I t seems to have been a v a l u a b l e method s i n c e we have seen such an i n c r e a s e i n i t s use. For example, we have found r e p o r t s about weather, s t a r s , sun, moon, and change of day and n i g h t i n a l l of the o l d c u l t u r e s . Even without a complex language s c r i p t l i k e ours i t was p o s s i b l e to cut marks i n stones and s t i c k s , which allowed counting. In 4241 B.C. Egyptians had a f a i r l y p r e c i s e calendar; even the leap year was known ( 2_ ). Other examples of s c i e n t i f i c observations include r e g i s t r a t i o n s of p o p u l a t i o n s , h a r v e s t s , and tenure. Around 3700 B.C. Seneferu, a mighty w a r r i o r , r a i d e d and captured 7,000 men and 200,000 sheep, c a t t l e , and goats ( .3 ). Wherever people l i v e d together and depended on each o t h e r , i t was necessary to make plans f o r the use of t h e i r land and a v a i l a b l e water f o r producing food. For example, i n Egypt the c u l t i v a t i o n depended on the f l o o d area of the N i l e R i v e r . They, t h e r e f o r e , had o b s e r v a t i o n s t a t i o n s along the r i v e r to measure the water l e v e l . From t h i s measuring they made the f o l l o w i n g very p r e c i s e p r e d i c t i o n s : only a 21 foot l e v e l meant famine. A 23 foot l e v e l meant i m p e r f e c t l y watered l a n d . However, at 26.5 f e e t the whole country had p l e n t y of water ( 4^ ).


1.

TSCHILTSCHKE

Statistics: A Child of Our Time?

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One of the best examples of a p r e c i s e s t a t i s t i c a l e s t i m a t i o n of counting, a n a l y z i n g , and drawing conclusions was the exact f o r e c a s t of the e c l i p s e of the sun i n 585 B.C. made by Thales of M i l l e t ( _5 ).


New B e l i e f s i n Numbers Over the years people have switched t h e i r b e l i e f s from the explanations of the gods of former times to the explanations of the gods of modern times, the s c i e n t i s t s and s t a t i s t i c i a n s . I t i s easy to see how people have done t h i s . Modern people began t o b e l i e v e i n numbers and data because they represented nature so w e l l . The t h e o r i e s of science and s t a t i s t i c s were e x p l a i n e d , and the ideas of science and s t a t i s t i c s became b e t t e r founded and entrenched i n t h e i r t h i n k i n g . However one mistake was made and that was a b i g one: f a c t s and data were taken as t r u t h and reality. The change i n the b e l i e f s of the people d i d not happen o v e r n i g h t . As f a c t s and data began to s u b s t a n t i a t e the t h e o r i e s and methods of s c i e n c e , the b e l i e f s of the people s l o w l y evolved away from the more general explanations of the p h i l o s o p h e r s . The f e e l i n g that the t h i n k i n g of the philosophers represented t r u t h and r e a l i t y was l o s t . In former times the f r i e n d s of t r u t h which i s the t r a n s l a t i o n of the Greek word f o r philosopher - t r i e d to f i n d b a s i c explanations from which they could e x p l a i n a l l the n a t u r a l phenomena i n the w o r l d . However, the study proved t o be too complex. I n chemistry and p h y s i c s , f o r example, there i s the b e l i e f that the world i s b u i l t of b a s i c elements, but people kept f i n d i n g smaller and smaller elements: atoms, neutrons, and now n e u t r i n o s and quarks. Our t h i n k i n g j u s t became shrouded w i t h f a c t s so that the wholeness of the world became l o s t . Wholeness Thinking

Lost

The t r u t h the philosophers searched f o r was s t r o n g l y i n f l u e n c e d by the idea of wholeness. Wholeness gives a broad d i r e c t i o n i n l i f e . However, our people have o f t e n f e l t that s c i e n t i f i c t h i n k i n g has l o s t i t s connection to the idea of t r u t h and wholeness. The world i s so complex and d e t a i l e d that people have become only s p e c i a l i s t s i n s t e a d of g e n e r a l i s t s . The l a t t e r category i n c l u d e s the p h i l o s o p h e r s . We switched over t o the idea that s p e c i a l i s t s can be the only ones that b r i n g t r u t h . The d i f f e r e n t d i r e c t i o n s , such as math, p h y s i c s , a r t , and philosophy, l o s t t h e i r connections to each other and were removed f a r away from t h e i r o r i g i n a l study areas and the idea of t r u t h and wholeness. Today the d i f f e r e n t departments b u i l d up such l a r g e realms of s p e c i a l knowledge t h a t year-long s t u d i e s are necessary t o f i n d one's way through. For each of these s c i e n t i f i c realms people developed t h e i r own language which was almost l i k e the event of the b u i l d i n g the tower of Babel.


TRACE RESIDUE ANALYSIS


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With s t a t i s t i c s as an example, I have t r i e d t o show how e a s i l y a p r o g r e s s i v e thought, although v a l u a b l e i n e x p l a i n i n g n a t u r e , l o s e s i t s context. To be s u r e , s t a t i s t i c s has aided the development of science tremendously e s p e c i a l l y i n recent times. In s p i t e of t h i s , however, explanations of nature that a i d l i f e have f a l l e n short of t h i s mark. I t i s now necessary to f i n d again one common "language" so that we are able to put the r e s u l t s of the d i f f e r e n t f i e l d s together and to b r i n g increased understanding of our w o r l d . Today people wish f o r s e c u r i t y . Their o r i e n t a t i o n i s expressed by the way they b e l i e v e i n s c i e n c e , namely, i n something g o d - l i k e that should be able t o r u l e the w o r l d . Our s o c i e t y puts a l l emphasis on a s c i e n t i f i c education and s c i e n t i f i c r e s e a r c h , and e l i m i n a t e s a t the same time a l l other p o s s i b l e methods which can o f f e r e x p l a n a t i o n s . Therefore, i t might be a good s t a r t t o organize a d i f f e r e n t s o r t of conference, where s c i e n t i s t s from a l l d i s c i p l i n e s s i t together and d i s c u s s ways to cooperate w i t h each o t h e r . Here philosophers should l e a d the d i s c u s s i o n s . L i v e l y d i s c u s s i o n s w i l l ensure new d i r e c t i o n s , i d e a s , and g o a l s , which w i l l again be c l o s e to t h e i r o r i g i n a l thought, the f r i e n d s h i p t o truth! Acknowledgments The author wishes to thank Jean Cummins, a f r i e n d from Kent, WA who spent q u i t e some time to make my E n g l i s h understandable. I a l s o want t o thank Dr. Wolfgang Deppert, Department of Philosophy, C h r i s t i a n A l b r e c h t s U n i v e r s i t y of K i e l , West Germany, who was my philosophy teacher and who was the f i r s t who confronted me w i t h some of these i d e a s . Literature Cited 1.

Snedecor, G. W.; Cochran, W. G. i n " S t a t i s t i c a l Methods"; 7th Ed.; Iowa State University Press: Ames, IA, 1980.

2.

Breasted, J. H. i n "A History of the Ancient Egyptians"; Smith, Elder and C o . : London, 1908; V o l . V, pp. 35-36.

3.

Budge, E . A. W. i n "A Short History of the Egyptian People"; J. M. Dent and Sons, L t d . : London, 1914; p. 38.

4.

Budge, E . A. W. i n "The N i l e " ; Thomas Cook and Son, London, 1902; pp. 76-77.

5.

Rousseau, P. i n "Man's Conquest of the Stars"; Publishers, L t d . : London, 1959; p.43.

Ltd.:

Jarrolds

RECEIVED May 6, 1985


Trace Residue Analysis - American Chemical Society

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