acted before 2010, meaning “it’s unlikely or maybe impossible for the U.S. to negotiate any target in Copenhagen. And if the U.S. is ing, where countries are supposed President-elect Barack Obama not prepared to take on a specific to forge a new treaty to replace the has promised a “new chapter in commitment, other countries 1992 Kyoto Protocol. American leadership on climate won’t either.” However, the Poznan ´ conferchange.” That leadership must The U.S. team could outline an ence was expected to provide a begin with a U.S. cap-and-trade intermediate plan instead, he barometer of the winds of policy to limit greenhouse gas says, to establish broadly what change. During the meeting’s emissions, he noted. developed and developing counlast 2 days, European leaders Obama addressed government tries will agree to do. officials, including delOthers agree that the egates to upcoming UN U.S. role is critical to the climate negotiations in next international agreePoland, in a surprise video ment. Negotiations for the statement at the GoverKyoto Protocol got a boost nors’ Global Climate Sumin 1996 when the U.S. parmit on November 18. ticipated, and that could “And once I take office, be repeated, noted Kevin you can be sure that the Fay, president of the lobUnited States will once bying firm Alcalde and again engage vigorously in Fay, at a recent Environthese negotiations and Many experts believe new leadership will spur the U.S. mental Law Institute help lead the world toCongress to pass climate legislation within the next 18 conference. ward a new era of global months. Limiting CO2 levels to cooperation on climate change,” he said. 250 parts per million and Many conversations in global temperature rise to planned to meet and finalize an Washington, D.C., now include 2 °C will be very difficult to energy and climate package, and the phrase “when the U.S. passes achieve, according to the Interdecide how to divvy up effort cap-and-trade legislation” instead national Energy Agency’s World among 27 member states and of if. Experts expect a bill to pass Energy Outlook, published Nowhat the future of their carbonCongress in 2009 or 2010, possibly vember 12. “Even leaving aside trading system will be. “That allowing Obama to enter UN neany debate about the political [would be] something to watch,” gotiations in Copenhagen in late feasibility... it is uncertain Morgan says, as an indication of 2009 with something to put on whether the scale of the transthe strength of Europe’s leaderthe table. Such legislation could formation envisaged is even ship in meeting ambitious help the U.S. frame an intermeditechnically achievable, as the targets. ate agreement among developed scenario assumes broad develThe current economic crisis and developing nations that opment of technologies that has some EU member states would later lead to binding greenhave not yet been proven,” the wary about accepting their share house gas reduction targets. report warns. of emissions cuts. At an October “There’s a massive opportunity Even the most ambitious U.S. summit in Brussels, newer memfor this new president to reengage proposals fall short of Europe’s curbers, such as Poland, the Czech and reestablish U.S. credibility in rent short-range target of cutting Republic, and Latvia, joined with the world through its climate emissions to 20% below 1990 levels Italy to demand a review of the agenda,” says Jennifer Morgan, cliby 2020. EU climate goals before making mate change director of the Euro“Right now, expectations are too them law. pean nonprofit group E3G. Morgan high, particularly in Europe,” DirThe timing of the Copenhagen specializes in EU relations with the inger says. “If expectations remain meeting is “unfortunate,” says U.S. and China. too high, you have a serious risk of Eliott Diringer, vice president for In December, delegates confailure and having no agreement in international strategies at the Pew verged on the small city of Poznan ´, Copenhagen. If the Obama AdminCenter on Global Climate Change, Poland, for the next round of UN istration can help show the way to a nonprofit research group advotalks. Expectations for the meeting an intermediate agreement, that is cating a U.S. cap-and-trade sysran low among policy experts, who a genuine step forward.” tem. Diringer doesn’t expect a say it will serve mainly as a place—ERIKA ENGELHAUPT U.S. cap-and-trade bill to be enholder before Copenhagen’s meetISTOCKPHOTO
U.S. poised for climate leadership
238 9 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY / January 15, 2009
10.1021/es8031924
2009 American Chemical Society
Published on Web 11/26/2008
