ous matters t o be considered in t h e solution of t h e problem. A good stud}· a n d a well-prepared report should lead n a t u r a l l y to conclusions and recommendations. Conclusions
and
Recommendations
I n our business reports we are required to come t o conclusions and recommendations since most of t h e m have to do w i t h policy m a t t e r s . As a m a t t e r of fact we consider a report of little value unless it does develop conclusions and recommendations. However, s o m e men, reporting within their o w n companies, m a y b e called u p o n to prepare reports setting forth, a s t a t e m e n t of conditions only. If conclusions a r e reached through
Subde^tsuf
the
various parts of the body of tbe report they should all be picked up in t h e conclusion section. One should be c a u t i o n e d against setting forth conclusions for which there is no supporting material in t h e body of the report. In Ford, Bacon & D a v i s we present t h e report t o t h e client with what w e call a letter of transmittal. T h i s letter does more, however, than merely say u \\*e hand you herewith t h e report w e have prepared at you.T request"; i t is really an a b s t r a c t of the report. Man3 r of the factors a r e stated very briefly, b u t t h e essential reasoning is reviewed a n d t h e conclusions a n d recommendations a r e again presented in some detail. I n this way t h e reader gets a
quick look a t the report without t h e necessity of reading it if he does n o t wish to. T h e letter of t r a n s m i t t a l also helps t h e reader of t h e r e p o r t t o understand t h e report b e t t e r as h e reads it. As h e tackles the report h e sees the pertinent facts in relation to each other, a n d he is also b e t t e r able t o judge of t h e soundness of the report. Whether in writing a report for a client or for a m e m b e r of one's own company it is generally desirable to p r e s e n t it with some sort of covering letter t h a t m a y serve the purpose of a brief resume. "Generally'' desirable—the letter of t r a n s m i t t a l usually works well unless t h e r e arises a situation in which the conclusions a r e n o t palatable to o n e of t h e readers.
Afasi/zet
Use of Chemical Market D a t a R . M. P K A T H K H , M a n a g e r , M a r k e t Researcli D e p a r t m e n t , Indoil C h e m i c a l C o . , C i i i c a g o , III. S t a t i s t i c s a r e c r e a t i v e iix t h a t t h e y a s s e m b l e a n a p p a r e n t l y u n r e l a t e d m i s c e l l a n e o u s a s s o r t m e n t of d a t a , c o n d e n s e t h e m to c o m p r e h e n s i b l e f o r m , b r i n g o u t r e l a t i o n s h i p s o t h e r w i s e n o t evident, and resolve t h e confusingly complex i n t o t h e usefully simple A L L persons carrying on market s u r vey activities must of necessity deal to some extent with statistics and statistical procedures. Despite this necessity, t h e r e a r e nevertheless m a n y chemists and chemical engineers engaged in t h e market research a n d m a r k e t development phase of t h e cheinical industry who, unfortunately, h a v e had m mal training in statistics. Typical of u n s u n t u t o r e d group, the author has n o academic background in statistics and in his market research work h a s had to deal eatch-as-oatch-can with statistical problems. A recital of the rough-and-ready experience gained in workaday dealings with chemical market d a t a m a y be of help to other hapless nonstatisticians in similar circumstances, at least to the extent of alerting them to the j o b ' s more embarrassing pit falls. Obviously there can be no a t t e m p t at expounding a n y profound theory of statistical science. Discussion must be limited to practical, pedestrian, elem e n t a r y details. If some procedures here deprecated seem obvious folly, I can say simply t h a t I h a v e committed or seen others c o m m i t all of the ineptitudes and errors described. - This p a p e r will present nothing very novel t o the practicing statistician or the market surveyor w h o works constantly with chemical statistics. T h e occasional
584
user of statistics, however, the chemical m a r k e t e r who but rarely is forced to seek o a t d a t a , and who performs his statistical work principally b y toil and stress, m a y find a point or two t o ease his task. The subject of handling chemical m a r k e t data may conveniently a n d logically be discussed u n d e r three principal heads. Taken in their normal chronological sequence these a r e : 1. 2. 3.
Collection of d a t a Processing of data Presentation of results
Before discussing collection of data, it may b e well to define exactly what we mean b y statistical d a t a . Data are n o t simply an accumulation of numbers. Tables of logarithms and square roots a n d such a b s t r a c t numbers a r e not statistical data. Statistical d a t a a r e created only b y t h e measuring or counting of concrete " t h i n g s . " T h e worker should fix t h i s physical conception of statistics and t h e axiom that follows therefrom firmly in his m i n d . Axiom: statistical results can never be more accurate than the count or measurement that supplied the original data. Obtaining
Accurate
and
Valid
Data
T h e searching o u t of data—dry, wearisome, uninspiring—is usually t h e part of
CHEMICAL
statistical work t h a t a b o v e all o t h e r s exh a u s t s and frustrates the casual worker. A few unhappy experiences at searching and h e has the firm conviction t h a t his destiny is never t o find a n y d a t a he m a y seek and t h a t searching is a weary, b o o t less task. Actually, in t h e average case, there are a p t t o be d a t a more often t h a n not, and t h e searcher should e m b a r k on his task w i t h good h e a r t a n d a resolution n o t t o quit too easily. In searching for d a t a t h e worker will normally first t u r n to published material. Statistics a r e where o n e finds t h e m , b u t so far a s chemical m a r k e t figures are concerned t h e following sources a r e fairly sure t o lead to a n y published d a t a . T h o s e mentioned first deal m o s t specifically with chemicals, the i n t e r e s t becoming broader and more general in t h e latter ones. 1. ''Chemical Statistics Directory # 1 . " (now in process of revision); published by U. S. D e p a r t m e n t of Commerce, W a s h ington, D . C. An index to g o v e r n m e n t statistics b y n a m e of chemical. 2. "Sources of Information for I n d u s trial M a r k e t R e s e a r c h . " R. M . L A W RENCE, editor; published by Chemical Industries, New York. Includes description of services and publications of the various g o v e r n m e n t agencies a s well as certain p r i v a t e sources, with special reference to t h e chemical process industries. 3. " G o v e r n m e n t Statistics for Business Use." P . M . H a u s e r a n d W. R . Leonard; published by J o h n Wiley & Sons, New York. Outlines m a n y statistical facts available from G o v e r n m e n t . 4. Statistical Abstract of the United States. U . S. D e p a r t m e n t of Commerce, Washington, D . C. An a n n u a l publication which in m a n y cases will doubtless not furnish d a t a in required detail b u t will
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direct the searcher to the original, more «comprehensive data. 5. "Market Research Sources." A booklet published by U. S. Department of Commerce, Washington D. C. The last •of this series, published in 1940, is now out of print but copies are available in many libraries. It furnishes a useful means of finding information sources in fields other than those usually covered by the worker. 6. "Moody's Manual of Investmem s" and similar publications provide a source of financial information, often including description of plants, principal products, subsidiary companies, and other details, on chemical companies whose securities are traded on the exchange. When a thorough literature search fails to turn up the desired data in any pub lished form, the only recourse for the worker is to seek enlightenment through interviews wdth persons who are likely to have or have access to pertinent informa tion. Statistical information secured through interview should be somewhat suspect for a subjective psychological reason if for no other. Assuming the pursuit of data has led the worker through a long, anxious literature search with no results, it is likely that at this stage, with time running out and results being de manded, he is becoming fairly desperate. So conditioned, he is apt to clutch eagerly, like a drowning man for a straw, at any scrap of information that will ease his dis tress. In this situation, the strictest and most selfless objectivity must be called up. Obtaining information b}r personal inter view requires that the subject interviewed (1) must have the information sought, (2) must be able to pass it on accurately, and (3) must be willing to do so. The tech nique of securing information by inter view is of greatest importance to anyone making market surveys. I t cannot be treated adequately here, but remembering the above three points and all they imply will furnish a good foundation. Continuity and Uniformity of Data Two obviously important requirements of statistical data, whether secured from the literature or by interview, are that they be accurate and valid; two others are that they have continuity and uni formity. Regarding continuity, it is well to de termine the duFation of a series before planning any extended study involving it. For example, a comparison of liquid versus solid caustic soda may be desired over the period between the two world wars. The worker happily finds recent figures on both products and proceeds to plan a logical progression of steps based on the two series. It will be impossible, however, to execute the plan since figures on solid caustic are not available prio- to 1943. Uniformity of data obviously is also of critical importance. Data extending over a period should be scrutinized to assure , that units have not changed, definition of units has not changed, and that the nature of units has not changed. Similarly, in V O L U M E
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any price data running over a number of years, b e sure that grades of product are the same throughout and that quotations refer to uniform packages and quantities. A few examples will illustrate the type of pitfall to which the worker must be alert. Alcohol statistics provide a trap for the unwary—some figures are in proof gallons, some in wine; some are for calendar years and some for fiscal years. Export and import figures for the same commodity are not necessarily compara ble, and some series are not consistent within themselves—for example, imports of wood pulp prior to 1936 were shown in long tons; since then, in tons of 2,000 pounds. Various government agencies publishing figures on the same commodity do not always use precisely the same units—plastics data in some cases include pigment and filler and in others are on a basis of resin content only. The term "chemical industries" is subject to various definitions in various statistics. In some analyses it may mean specifically only those activities commonly thought of as chemical—viz., manufacture of acids, alkalies, salts, and basic organics. In others it may mean the entire list under "Chemical and Allied Industries" in the "Government Standard Industrial Classi fication Manual," which includes cotton seed oil mills, printing ink, soap, and similar activities not strictly chemical manufacture ; in still others it ma}r mean almost anything, including the rubber, petroleum, and coal industries. It may be well to mention a practical point o r so that can save a great deal of useless work. Read with utmost care the titles, headings, and notes of any statisti cal tabulation. Overlooking a word or two in small print may make a long and logical statistical process altogether worth less. Also, collect all your data before you start manipulating any of them. Otherwise, you may spend a great deal of time working up one series in detail only t o find later that the data necessary for a comparative series are not available. Manipulation for Simplification and Comparison When however, data that are accurate, valid, and complete have been accumu lated, they must then be so manipulated as best to achieve the two principal aims of statistical procedures—simplification and comparison. Such manipulation re quires application of the science that has been developed for the interpretation of numerical data—i.e., statistical method. T o t h e uninitiated the manipulation of statistical data seems to require no ability beyond that acquired through the study of arithmetic in grade schools. This is a fatal misapprehension. Then too, at the manipulation step of statistical procedure a strange malady often seizes hold of novice statisticians. Playing about with a mass of data, they become fasci nated by the apparently endless combina
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tions, comparisons, averages, and con densations which may be worked out. They let themselves be led through one intriguing step to another until they wind up with a final result that is statistical nonsense. In manipulation of statistical data, a little learning is verily a dangerous thing. This warning cannot be overstressed. Before even simple manipulations of sta tistical data are attempted, appropriate works on statistical method must be con sulted. There are various good books at different levels. Ones that come to mind as having been personally useful are "What the Figures Mean," by Stephen Oilman, published by Ronald Press, NewYork; it is an illuminating book on elementary statistics for the casual user of figures. A book somewhat more advanced but still designed for practical use by nonpro fessional statisticians is "An Introduction to Managerial Business Statistics/' by II. P. ITartkemier, published by Thomas Y. Crowell, New York. More compre hensive and likely to serve all the needs of the average chemical market surveyor is "Business Statistics," by M. A. Brumbauth and L. S. Kellogg, available from Richard D. Irwin, Inc., Chicago. It ia a book judged especially suitable for those who must learn withou^ a teacher. In connection with manipulation of sta tistics, it is well to recall something men tioned earlier: that the accuracy of sta tistical studies depends fundamentally on the accuracy with which the original "things" were counted or measured. I t is, therefore, futile to attempt at this stage to compensate for basically inaccurate measurements by involved mathematical manipulations or fancy figure juggling. If, for example, the diameter of a circle has been measured by use of a crude yard stick, circumference accuracy cannot be achieved by multiplying the diameter figure by π- carried to the eighth decimal. On the question of "rounding off," or the number of figures (digits) to use in statistical work, the general rule is that four significant figures are usually suffi cient. Four significant figures limit the maximum possible error due to rounding to 0.05% which is satisfactory; most business figures are somewhat contami nated by approximations and estimations to start with. There is usually nothing to be gained by using ponderous numbers of many digits. Presenting the Results The third step in a statistical study, following accumulation and manipulation of data, is the presentation of results. If the collection of data, as mentioned above, is the part of statistics that frustrates and exasperates the worker, certainly it is poor presentation of results that frustrates and exasperates the reader. Presentation is the reason for all the work that has gone before and is the culmination of the whole 585
statistical process; if ineffectively done, the entire job may be a waste of effort. Instead of yielding useful, practical re sults, the s t u d y will exist more or less in a vacuum, an academic exercise of no tangible benefit to anyone. T h e first requirement in presentation is to gain an audience. " N o b o d y likes statistics." T h e y must be made inter esting. Consequently, the type of audience for •vhich t h e report is intended and t h e p u r pose for which it was u n d e r t a k e n will largely determine the style of presentation. In some cases, large, easel-size tabulations and charts, or possibly lantern slides, a c companied by spoken comment may be the most effective means of interesting your audience. For other audiences, standard-size typed pages t h a t the users can handle and study quietly and at close range m a y be more effective. There can be no generalization on form of report; each case is unique and will require thoughtful, specialized attention. One generalization can be made, however, t h a t holds without exception: ''Present only the minimum possible information." Do not a t t e m p t to impress your audience with the great amount of d a t a you have accumulated or overwhelm them with your broad grasp of the subject. But, on the other hand, do not be confusingly brief. T h e worker, thoroughly familiar (and perhaps bored) with his subject after weeks of work and anxious to drive home a conclusion of which he is posi tively assured, may fail to state ade quately t h e reasons for his conclusion or to share his reasoning with his audience. T h e rule to remember in summarizing d a t a is t h a t a summary should lead to essentially the same action or conclusion on t h e p a r t of the reader as would t h e presentation of complete data. Statistical tables are constructed for the ready comparison of numerical data. Spend sufficient effort on tabulations to assure t h a t they are clear a n d sharp. D o not assume t h a t the reader by a d e q u a t e s t u d y will be able to understand your tables; rather design them so t h a t it will be impossible for him not to. Definite principles and practices have been de veloped for the construction of effective tables; instructions are obtainable from the usual elementary statistics texts. I n addition to tabular methods, there are graphic methods of presenting results which are of unique value if used properly. Much of the c o m m e n t on tables applies equally t o graphic displays. Before set tling on t h e t y p e of chart to be used, con sider all the m a n y possibilities—bar charts, pie charts, maps, and others. Consult publications on chart design. A " recently published book of h a n d y size is "Practical Rules for Graphic Presentation of Business Statistics" by L. E. S m a r t and S. Arnold, published by t h e Bureau of Business Research, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio. 586
In presenting results, a fault to which lay statisticians are especially prone is the use of data "raw"—i.e., exactly as they are found in soixrce material. T h e following tables illustrate the confusion that can result from t h i s practice, particu larly when related d a t a a r e taken from several different sources. All deal with GR-A, but Reference I (plant capacity) is from Chemical Facts & Figures, Refer ence II (production, sales, a n d value) from United States Tariff Commission re ports, and Reference III from t h e house organ of a producing c o m p a n y . Reference I shows long tons, Reference II thousands of p o u n d s , a n d Reference I I I speaks of tons w i t h o u t regard t o long or short. D a t a thus p r e s e n t e d are bound to be exasperating to the r e p o r t reader. Even if he stops and t a k e s time out t o re duce t h e quantities in the tables t o a com mon base, h e is still u t t e r l y in .'he dark as to w h a t " t o n s " in Reference III m a y mean. Reference II serves to illustrate another common result of using d a t a raw. T h e y are so detailed as t o be confusing a n d difficult of ready g r a s p . Unless there are specific reasons why this detail is essen tial, t h e d a t a should be condensed a n d simplified t o the p o i n t at which they can be grasped and digested practieallv a t a glance. Reference I Pl.A NT C A PACITI K8 FO R Β ϋ Ν Α Ν (Γϊ R-A)
Firestone Butaprene Akron Goodyear GhemiAïvron gum Goodrich, B. F., Fly- Akron car OR S.O.Co. (\T. J.) B a t o n R ouge Perbunan Total reported c a p a c i t y
Long tons per year 1.600 4,200 9,000 5.500 20,300
While a small amount of t h e detail in Reference I I is omitted, t h e average observer will get a more lucid conception of G R - A production and sales value from the condensation than h e will from the detailed table. T h e foregoing few paragraphs bring (Kit t h e extent to which effectiveness of statistical work is lessened b y a few simple shortcomings in presentation. Conversely, of course, any additional effort expended or pains t a k e n in working up and presenting statistical d a t a will p a y large returns in vastly increased clarity a n d forcefulness of reports. M a n y , many reports t h a t d e a l with t h e market for chemicals, including a number t h a t have a p peared in industry publications, would have been, greatly improved b y . a little more regard to the w a y statistics and statistical results were presented. Although this discussion on statistics· has for convenience been carried on under three general heads, it is obvious t h a t such division is quite arbitrary and t h a t in reality all parts of a statistical job are interdependent. The fundamental market problem t o be solved will determine the kind of d a t a to be collected, the d a t a available will determine in p a r t the style of presentation, which in turn will influence processing of data, a n d so on. But it is well to remember t h a t three d i s tinctly different types of a c t i v i t y are involved in a n y statistical s t u d y . First,, collection of data, requiring persistence,, patience, a n d attention to d e t a i l ; second, processing of data, requiring t h e intelligent application of established, rigid, mathematical principles; and, third,, presentation, requiring ingenuity, objectivity, a n d the ability t o present information tersely, clearly, a n d engagingly.
Reference II PRODUCTION OF
1943 .. 1944 ή 1945 Government 1943 1944 t 1945 Private Government 194G
Production 1,000 lb. 32,450 33,114 17,878 4.G17 73
46 333
13,615
14,751
S u m m a r y of JReference I I
1943 1944 1945 1946
Millions of Pounds 32 38 18 14
Value $1,000 17,462 14,931 7,747
Interpretation
Reference III A major producer r e p o r t s that t h e average pro duction of Buna NT during 1942-46 was 12,000 tons per year, and t h a t t h e ultimate expected produc tion of Buna 1ST may be as high as 70,000 tons per year, of which 20,000 to 30,000 tons per year will be consumed in vinyl p o l y blends-
PRODUCTION- OP B U N A Ν
GR-A
Sales 1,000 lb. 32,200 31,658 18.277
(GR-A)
Avg. Sales Value (cents p e r pound) 54 47 42 38
T h e tabulation marked Summary of Reference I I shows t h e material after it has been condensed. C H E M I C A L
Unit valueper l b . $0.54 0.47 0.42
23 104
0.49 0.31
5,647
0.38
to Complete
the
Study
T h e r e is, however, in addition to the a c cumulation, manipulation, and presenta tion of results, still o n e further obligation on t h e worker. Although n o t strictly statistics, t h i s finishing step is neverthe less essential if the full effectiveness of his work is to b e realized. T h i s requirement is interpretation—the translation of tech nical, statistical facts into language which is readily understandable b y the intended audience and which points o u t t h e way in which the statistical findings bear on t h e marketing problem in hand. Observation of m a n y surveys, both ^published a n d unpublished, makes glarAND
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ingly e v i d e n t how many workers neglect this requirement of rounding o u t and complet ing their study b y interpretation. They a s s u m e t h a t a b a r e s t a t e m e n t of facts is sufficient, that they have done their job by placing an array of d a t a before their audience, leaving it to the reader to m a k e h i s own interpretation. They hold strict objectivity t o bo t h e prime objective of statistics; fact», they maintain, speak for themselves. T h e contemporary novelist, Huxley, says this i n one of h i s recent books. " ' F a c t s speak for themselves!' Illusion! F a c t s are ventriloquist's dummies. Sitting on a wise man's knee they ma3 r be m a d e t o u t t e r words of wisdom ; elsewhere they say nothing, or t a l k nonsense, or indulge in sheer diabolism." If one grants t h e truth of this observa-
The Caver
tion, then a person working with m a r k e t statistics a n d m a r k e t surveys must definitely see t o it that his facts do indeed "speak words of wisdom," else he is not meeting the obligations of his job. His reports will lack their real reason for existence—aid and effectiveness in solving market problems. He is, in truth, turning out "just a lot of dry statistics." Not that statistics or statistical procedures at their best and including wise interpretation of results can in themselves solve the problems arising in chemical market surveys. Mathematical wizardry a n d all t h e charts that t a n be devised will n o t replace imagination, experience, and judgment in achieving sound m a r k e t appraisals nor substitute for hard, straight, clearheaded thinking. On the other hand, statistical proeedu?*es should n o t be held in
.
Edwin Ward Tillotson to Receive Bleininger Memorial Award J\. DIMINUTIVE glass b e n arid her brood of chicks a r e t h e star members of the "glass menagerie' 7 that decorates t h e office of Edwin Ward Tillotson. assistant director of the Mellon I n s t i t u t e . In addition to other members of the ceramic animal kingdom, however, t h e office houses a veritable museum of intriguing glass exhibits that show its curator has m o r e t h a n a passing interest in the shimmering technology. Although t h e diversified threads of modern research h a v e at times compelled Tillotson to follow iLonvitreous p a t h s h e has invariably returned to t h e topic of his prime interest—the chemistry of glass. I n recognition of h i s "distinguished achievement in the field of ceramics," ''Tilly,'· as he is known to his associates, will be given the 19-19 Bleininger Memorial Award of t h e American Ceramic Society. T h e presentation will t a k e place a t a meeting of t h a t society's Pittsburgh section at the Hotel Schenley o n March 11. The Bleininger award, though of recent origin, has already established itself a s the highest honor bestowed i n the ceramic field. The only previous recipient, was the late Ross C. P u r d y , former general secretary of the American Ceramic Society a n d for many years the editor of its publications. Native
of
Connecticut
Tillotson was born in Farmington, Conn, in 1884 a n d received his professional education a t Yale University where he received his B.A. i n lOO^ and his Ph.D. in 1909; While a t Yale he was a Loomis V O L U M E
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'fellow, an honor granted to him on the basis of proficiency in chemistry. From 1908-9 he held a Silliman fellowship at Yale. In view of his subsequent career in ceramic chemistry, it is significant t o note t h a t Tillotson's graduate work was in the field of organic chemistry. An early clue t o his preoccupation with m a t t e r s ceramic, however, is to be found in t h e fact t h a t his first position upon graduation was a s assistant curator of mineralogy at the Field M u s e u m in Chicago. After a brief stay in the mid western metropolis h e pushed on to t h e University of Kansas where lie remained for four years as an industrial fellow. It was duri n g this period of his career t h a t he began h i s studies o n t h e physical properties of glass under t h e guidance of t h e famous It. Iv. Duncan, lie was primarily concerned with the relationships existing between the optical properties of glass a n d its chemical composition. His work on the surface tension of glass was the first to be carried o u t in this country. In 1913, Tillotson reversed his westward inarch and t u r n e d to Pittsburgh a n d the Mellon Institute, bringing with him a bride, the former Lida Charles L e Suer. Shortly thereafter, he was placed in charge of all of the investigations a t the Mellon Institute concerned with the ceramic and related fields. I n this position he has aided m a n y young scientists under his charge in t h e development of their professional careers.
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scorn as of no practical value or be r e garded as techniques to be used only as bitter necessity requires and to t h e m i n i m u m extent possible. They are, or can be, creative in t h a t they assemble an apparently unrelated miscellaneous assortm e n t of data, condense them to comprehensible form, bring out relationships otherwise not evident, and resolve t h e confusingly complex into t h e usefully simple. They are indispensable tools of market research which in most cases have n o t had their full potentialities exploited a n d which, properly applied, offer a ready and substantial source of help to the h a r ried market surveyor. These papers complete the Symposium on Studying the Market presented at the Washington session of the 114th national ACS meeting. Other papers given at the symposium were published in the Feb. 21 issue of C&EN.
Dr. Tillotson has been for many years a prime mover in the American Ceramic Society. He served as its vice president in 1922 and was elevated to its presidency in 1926. He was secretary of t h e society's glass division from 1919 to 1921 and served as associate editor of the Journal of the American Ceramic Society for several years. In 1931 he was elected a fellow of the society, an action followed six years later by his election to fellowship in the British Society of Glass Technology. P e r haps the high point in Tillotson's activities in the American Ceramic Society was his selection as the honorary chairman of the 45th annual meeting of the society which was held in Pittsburgh in the spring of 1943. T h e American Ceramic Society, however, does not have a monopoly on Tillotson's interest and services. He is a m e m ber of the AMERICAN CHEMICAL S O C I E T Y
and was chairman of its Pittsburgh Section in 1920. The American Optical Society and the Society of Rheology also claim him as a member. The social side of Tillotson's a c t i v i t y ledger shows memberships in the Order of Free and Accepted Masons, the M y s t i c Shrine, the University Club of Pittsburgh, and the Faculty Club of the University of Pittsburgh. He was vice president of t h e latter organization in 1938. The Tillotsons h a v e two children, M a r y Katherine, now Airs. Eugene L·. Combs of Columbus, Ohio, a n d Edwin Ward, Jr., who after serving in the Army Air Forces in New Guinea during the recent war, now resides in Pittsburgh. The 1949 Bleininger award winner's principal avocations are the solution of crossword puzzles a n d mathematical p r o b lems. He is intensely fond of statistical analyses, a fact born out by a friend's description of Tillotson as a man who prefers " t o calculate the chances of getting a h a n d in poker dice than throw the dice himself." 587
