C&EN I feature
RUSSELL COLEMAN, President, The Sulphur Institute, Washington, D.C.
World Fertilizer Requirements The world will have about 3.5 billion people by 1970. Total food needs will be greatest in those countries unable to meet their food re quirements in the past. The world's nutri tional gap won't be bridged unless we put all resources to work now This article will attempt to answer two questions: • How much fertilizer is needed to produce food for the world's growing population? • How much fertilizer actually is likely to be used in the world by 1970? To answer the first question requires a close examination of the world's "nutritional gap," the difference be tween the food available now and the food needed to provide reasonable nu tritional standards for the world's pop ulation. Except under unusual cir cumstances, starving people have largely vanished from the world. Em phasis has shifted from "starving mil lions" to "undernourished millions." However, a look at the anticipated in crease in the world's population shows that there will be 22% more people to feed in 1970 than there were in 1958. Unless a plan is developed to feed these extra mouths, the world could revert from undernourishment and malnutrition to starvation. Perhaps the best method of estimat ing future food requirements is to compare calories per capita per day presently available with the calories required to meet minimal nutritional standards. Dr. Frank W. Parker (in 84
C&EN
DEC.
2,
1963
"Fertilizers and Economic Develop ment," published by the Food and Ag riculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome) has recently estimated food supplies available by regions. His data show a wide difference in the calories available per capita per day in the various regions. People in Europe, North America, and Oceania
are generally well fed with more than 3000 calories and with adequate highquality protein. These well-fed re gions, however, have only 29% of the world's population. Three regionsLatin America, Africa, and the Near East with 19% of the world's peoples —have about 2400 calories per capita per day, with sufficient total protein but with a deficiency of high-quality protein. In the Far East, where 52% of the world's population reside, there are only about 2000 calories per capita per day available, with insufficient pro tein. A recent survey by the Food and Agriculture Organization reports that 10 to 15% of the world's population is undernourished and that up to 50% of the world's people suffer from mal nutrition. The alarming fact is that the rate of increase in population is greatest in those areas where hunger and malnutrition are most prevalent. Recently P. V. Sukhatme of FAO has estimated world food needs for the years 1970, 1980, and 2000. He
World Population Will Reach Nearly 3.5 Billion by 1970 M M
1958
1970
Millions
Far East Near East Africa Latin America
'
1
Europe North America
PPi
Oceania
I ()
1 200
1 400
1 600
Τ 800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Source: Sukhatme, P. V., The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Vol. 124, Part 4, pp. 463-525 (1961).
1,600
τ
1,800
τ
2,000
C&EN I feature
RUSSELL COLEMAN, President, The Sulphur Institute, Washington, D.C.
World Fertilizer Requirements The world will have about 3.5 billion people by 1970. Total food needs will be greatest in those countries unable to meet their food re quirements in the past. The world's nutri tional gap won't be bridged unless we put all resources to work now This article will attempt to answer two questions: • How much fertilizer is needed to produce food for the world's growing population? • How much fertilizer actually is likely to be used in the world by 1970? To answer the first question requires a close examination of the world's "nutritional gap," the difference be tween the food available now and the food needed to provide reasonable nu tritional standards for the world's pop ulation. Except under unusual cir cumstances, starving people have largely vanished from the world. Em phasis has shifted from "starving mil lions" to "undernourished millions." However, a look at the anticipated in crease in the world's population shows that there will be 22% more people to feed in 1970 than there were in 1958. Unless a plan is developed to feed these extra mouths, the world could revert from undernourishment and malnutrition to starvation. Perhaps the best method of estimat ing future food requirements is to compare calories per capita per day presently available with the calories required to meet minimal nutritional standards. Dr. Frank W. Parker (in 84
C&EN
DEC.
2,
1963
"Fertilizers and Economic Develop ment," published by the Food and Ag riculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome) has recently estimated food supplies available by regions. His data show a wide difference in the calories available per capita per day in the various regions. People in Europe, North America, and Oceania
are generally well fed with more than 3000 calories and with adequate highquality protein. These well-fed re gions, however, have only 29% of the world's population. Three regionsLatin America, Africa, and the Near East with 19% of the world's peoples —have about 2400 calories per capita per day, with sufficient total protein but with a deficiency of high-quality protein. In the Far East, where 52% of the world's population reside, there are only about 2000 calories per capita per day available, with insufficient pro tein. A recent survey by the Food and Agriculture Organization reports that 10 to 15% of the world's population is undernourished and that up to 50% of the world's people suffer from mal nutrition. The alarming fact is that the rate of increase in population is greatest in those areas where hunger and malnutrition are most prevalent. Recently P. V. Sukhatme of FAO has estimated world food needs for the years 1970, 1980, and 2000. He
World Population Will Reach Nearly 3.5 Billion by 1970 M M
1958
1970
Millions
Far East Near East Africa Latin America
'
1
Europe North America
PPi
Oceania
I ()
1 200
1 400
1 600
Τ 800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Source: Sukhatme, P. V., The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Vol. 124, Part 4, pp. 463-525 (1961).
1,600
τ
1,800
τ
2,000
CùEN presents here two papers from the meeting of the Chemical Market Research Association at Atlanta Nov, 13, The first sets the scene to show what the world will need in the way of fertilizer to meet its food requirements in the coming years. The second, beginning on page 89, shows what production is apt to be and the factors affecting that production.
has made these estimates by correlating the increase in population with a reasonable increase in caloric requirement for better nutrition. Mr. Sukhatme's information (table, this page) shows that the total food needs will be greatest in those countries which have been unable to meet their food requirements in the past. If the targets projected by Mr. Sukhatme are to be realized, agricultural production in the Far East must be increased at a rate of 5% per year for the next 40 years. Even the lowest rate of increase needed, that for Africa, would be in excess of 3 % per year. In no region, and in only a few countries, has a rate of increase of 5% per year been maintained in the past for as long as 10 years. Thus the age-old question, "Can the world feed itself?" is still an unanswered one for this and for future generations. It is obvious that the world's nutritional gap will not be bridged unless we put all available resources to work now.
Nitrogen Consumption to Rise Markedly Wmm Used 1959-60 E S S Projected 1969-70 Thousands of metric tons Ν 9,000
Resources
Do we have adequate resources to solve the problem without chemical fertilizer? First, let us examine the land resources which are available. It would appear that the easiest way to produce more food would be to cultivate more land. At the present time, only about 10% of the land surface on the earth (3.4 billion acres) is under cultivation. Estimates of the potential cultivable land have been put as high as 18 billion acres. However, Dr. Charles E. Kellogg, distinguished U.S. soil scientist, estimates that only about 1.3 billion acres may be added to the present cultivated area. Dr. Parker has estimated that as much as 2 5 % of the food required by the lesser developed countries could be obtained from the cultivation of new land. Regardless of the estimates, however, most of the new land would have special problems if it were brought into cultivation. Indicative of these problems is the new land which the U.S.S.R. has recently put under the plow. Despite bringing into cultiva-
1
7,000
Nutritionally Deficient Regions
6,000 5,000
CO ID !
in
ι
4,000 3,000 2,000
σ> co CM
1,000 0
CM
«t ^
JP
* Asia
Africa
in u> oo ο
JTi Latin America
CO
Europe
North America
00
Oceania
Source: The Sulphur Institute
Phosphate Increase to Trail that of Nitrogen • • • Used 1959-60 î:î2S
