Behind the Markets è+ HARRY STENERSON
O u t l o o k f o r c h e m i c a l c o n s u m p t i o n n e x t y e a r g o o d , e v e n if d e f l a t i o n a r y m o v e m e n t i s s e t i n m o t i o n · · · R u b b e r m a y h a v e t o w a i t Cor a new replacement tire m a r k e t ; cotton faces strong competition Τ Ν forecasting probable chemical dc""· mands in 1948. general business forecasts have to be considered as well as the out look in various consuming industries. Farmers may be well supplied with money for the purchase of agriculture chemicals, for example, but while fertilizers and insecticides may be produced and sold in record voiume, saturation points might be reached in other consuming lines. Most economists in a recent survey predicted some form of business recession in 1948, and the bulk of these indicated mild to moderate setbacks. The Bureau of Agricultural Economics, however, pre dicts a year of continued high employ ment and domestic spending, as the basic demand factors which maintained a high level of production and employment this year are likely to remain strong "during most or all of 1948." A survey among the important chemicalusing industries probably would not pro vide an equally optimistic forecast for chemical sales, but in the absence of any deflationary movement or pronounced recession, it is safe to conclude that chemical volume will remain heavy in the industry's important outlets. Rubber It is estimated that rubber consumption fell off about 10% during the last quarter following a smaller recession in the third quarter. During the first half of the year, the use of rubber had totaled 571,774 long tons, an increase of 15.7% over the first 6 months of 1946. Of the latter total, 258,792 tons were natural rubber and 312,982 synthetic. Larger permitted use of natural may step up rubber consumption during the early months of 1948. In the chemical industry, however, it is felt that tire outputs have caught up with the replace ment demand, and that we will have to wait for the creation of a new tire replace ment market provided by postwar auto mobiles. Present scrappage rate for old cars and the production rate for new autos indicates that the new replacement market is still some two years away. Textiles Raw cotton consumption for the 194748 season is indicated at around 9 million bales, or 10% less than 1946-47. What ever losses are sustained in caustic and other processing chemicals will be made up by synthetic fibers. Cotton textile leaders contend that industry is in a sound
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and favorable condition. I t s former excess capacity, in terms of efficient looms and spindles, has disappeared. Nine months' rayon deliveries this year reached the large total of 695 million lb., or 11% above shipments for the corresponding period in 1946. Rayon exports also are increasing, and for the first 8 months were 4 1 % above 1946 for the staple. Plant expansion and new facilities are expected to contribute additional poundage during 1948. Wool fabric production may not under go any marked expansion in the coming year unless improvement takes place in raw wool supplies. Department of Agri culture showed recently that wool to» be shorn this year w a s about 256,302,000 lb., grease basis, t h e smallest production since 1925. Steel and
Paints A continued strong demand for ex terior and interior redecorating, plus the industrial requirements from makers of machinery, home and office appliances, autos, etc., should give the paint, varnish, and lacquer industries another y e a r of C h e m i c a l Price T r e n d s
1 1 1 1
Transpor ta tion Chemical manufacturers are still hai capped b y an inadequate number of 1 cars and tank cars, a shortage which st< from insufficient supplies of steel.* goal has been set for the constructior 10,000 freight cars a month, but the 1 currently is not much better than 5,( Some 125,000 to 130,000 cars are on or« and over the past 6 or 8 months we h been scrapping more rail equipment t has been placed in service. Heavy exj. shipments moving to seaboard points adding t o car shortages for dome traffic. Vegetable
Metals
The steel industry is a large consumer of sulfuric acid, and a wide list of chemical products also enters into the recovery and fabrication of nonferrous metals and tlicir alloys. The nation's requirements of copper, brass, tin, lead, aluminum, and other metals is far from satisfied, and their production should remain at a capacity level, or as permitted by supplies. Steel manufacturers are adding 3,OO0,000 tons of additional capacity in sheet and strip over the next two years. The shortage in these descriptions will be relieved partly but not fully in the spring.
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large volume sales. New construct will probably add materially to volume, although paint needs for 1 structures did not meet expectation 1947. Costs and prices may be a fa» in paint sales even if no great consu: resistance to prices was noted this yea
Advances Previous 1 Current Acid, stearic, lb. 0.34 0.32 Menthol, lb. 8.85-9.00 8.60-8.75 Oil, coconut, lb. 0.20Vr-0.21 0.18V* Oil, corn, lb. 0.22V*-0.23 0.227s Oil, cottonseed, lb. 0.22 0.21 Oil, oleo, lb. 0.28 0.27 Oil, peanut, lb. 0.24»/* 0.22 »/a Oil, red, lb. 0.28»A 0.26V4 Oil, soybean, lb. 0.22 0.20 V* Oil, tune, lb. 0.2β»/ι-0.27 0.26 V* Platinum, oz. 65.00-66.50 62.00-65-. 00 Silver nitrate, oz. 0.4774 0.46V* I Tallow, lb. 0.22»A 0.21V« Turpentine, gal. 0.627t 0.62 Declines Casein, lb. 0.30-0.32 0.32-O.33 Oil, linseed, lb. 0.306-0.313 0.313 ! Oil, menhaden, lb>. 0.18-0.19 0.19-0. 20
CHEMICAL
Oils
Sharp price upturns have accompar active trading and expanded factory o p tions in a wide list of industrial oils dui the past few weeks. Crude soybean in which transactions have exceeded c 1,000 tank cars for refiners' needs, sold over a range of 19 cents t o 22 « per lb. Price strength was likewise nc in coconut, corn, linseed, peanut, < oil, and stéarine. Buying interest also remains activ< nearby and future tung oil, and offer from the Chinese market are more limi T h e domestic tung oil industry in South meanwhile continues to expand, while no current figures are available, annual "Agricultural Statistics" publis by the Department of Agriculture sh that domestic tung oil production tained the record total of about 15,136, lb. during 1946. The output in 1 was only 1,984,000 lb., but in the s ceeding year it recovered t o 8,537,000 From Marshall Ballard, secretary the American Tung Oil Associât A.A.L., we learn that crushed tung hulls and meal are now moving into fertilizer trade. The meal has been fo to be a n excellent organic conditi< and the source of some nitrogen for m fertilizers. Owing to its toxic propei however, the meal is not used comi cially for feed. Only one tung oil operative is in existence—rthe Ozone Τ Producers' Cooperative. The great bulk of domestic tung has been produced and marketed privately owned mills, who usually through dealers but also o n occa direct t o consumer or through brokei
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