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Crop Protection Discovery – Is Being the First Best? Thomas C. Sparks, James E Hunter, Beth A. Lorsbach, Greg Hanger, Roger Gast, Greg Kemmitt, and Robert J Bryant J. Agric. Food Chem., Just Accepted Manuscript • DOI: 10.1021/acs.jafc.8b03484 • Publication Date (Web): 11 Sep 2018 Downloaded from http://pubs.acs.org on September 13, 2018

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Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry

For: Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry Review

Crop Protection Discovery – Is Being the First Best? Thomas C. Sparks*, James E. Hunter, Beth A. Lorsbach, Greg Hanger, Roger E. Gast, Greg Kemmitt, Robert J. Bryant** Corteva Agrisciences™, Agriculture Division of DowDuPont™, Dow AgroSciences. Discovery Research 9330 Zionsville Road, Indianapolis, IN 46268 **Agranova, Orpington, Kent BR6 9AP UK

*Corresponding Author: Ph: 317-337-3064 Fax 317-337-3205 E-mail: [email protected]

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ABSTRACT

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Current crop protection chemicals span an array of chemistry classes and modes of

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action.

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active ingredients competing with each other for market position. In this competition,

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the first product to market in a new class or mode of action may or may not have an

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advantage depending on a number of parameters including relative efficacy against the

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target pests, pest resistance, regulatory pressures, synthetic complexity, and marketing

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effectiveness.

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protection compounds has been declining, and patenting strategies have gotten more

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sophisticated, making it more challenging to break into an existing area of chemistry.

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One result is new classes of chemistry tend to be smaller, making first to market more

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beneficial than in the past.

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chemistry has the opportunity to set positioning and expectations.

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Keywords Agrochemical discovery, Crop protection compounds, Pesticide

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Typically, within each chemistry class there are multiple chemically distinct

The number of companies involved in the discovery of new crop

Additionally, the first into a market with a new class of

Abbreviations used ALS - acetolactate synthase inhibitor DMI – demethylase Inhibitor EPSPS - enolpyruvyl-3-shikimate phosphate synthase FRAC – Fungicide Resistance Action Committee GM – genetically modified HRAC –Herbicide Resistance Action Committee IRAC – Insecticide Resistance Action Committee MoA - mode of action SDHI - succinate dehydrogenase inhibitors

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INTRODUCTION

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The increasing global population1 requires expanded production of food to feed the

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additional two billion people expected on this planet by 2050.

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pathogens and weeds that negatively impact crop productivity remains an ongoing,

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essential component to successful and economical food production. However, pest and

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pathogen resistance to existing commercial pesticides continues to expand3,4 and

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escalating regulatory and environmental requirements4,5 limit the utility of many

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established classes of chemistry. Thus, there remains a need for new and novel crop

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protection products creating opportunities for innovation to address grower and

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consumer needs.

Controlling insects,

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Although there has been substantial consolidation in the crop protection agrochemical

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industry, especially among companies involved in the basic research and development

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of new crop protection products,4,5 new active ingredients

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and developed (Figure 1)6 representing a range of classes. A long standing and central

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approach in crop protection discovery programs is the utilization of competitor patents

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as a source of inspiration for new agrochemcials as well as the further evolution of a

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chemical class by the originating company seeking to expand the spectrum and

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utility.4,7,8 This enduring approach in discovery programs9 has led to a long line of crop

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protection active ingredients belonging to common chemical families and manifesting

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their bioactivity via the same mode of action.

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introduction of the once revolutionary organophosphate insecticide, parathion, in the

continue to be discovered

For example, the discovery and

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1940’s, lead to a diverse range of organophosphate insecticides10 over the next 70

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years with an excess of 150 different active ingrediants.11 Similar, but less extreme

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examples exist for a range of existing chemical classes of insecticides (N-methyl

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carbamates, cyclodienes, pyrethroids, neonicotinoids), fungicides (triazoles, strobilurins)

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and herbicides (aryloxyphenoxys, sulfonyl ureas / sulfonamides).

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the first molecule that becomes a product in a particular agrochemical class remained

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the primary molecule in that class and market in spite of numerous other chemically

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analogous products being introduced.

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neonicotinoid developed and has maintained its sales lead for more than 20 years, in

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spite of the introduction of several other neonicotinoids (Table 1).

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leading product of some classes emerged only after the first molecule was introduced.

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This was the case for the α-cyano-pyrethroids, cypermethrin and deltamethrin, which

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quickly displaced permethrin,12 one of the very first photostable pyrethroids

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commercialized.

In some instances

Imidacloprid, for example, was the first

Conversely, the

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Slightly more than half of global pesticide sales are derived from active ingredients

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introduced since 1991, about evenly divided between fungicides, herbicides and

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insecticides (Figure 2), clearly demonstrating the value of newer products in the

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marketplace.

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chemicals, with some highs and lows, over the past 25 years (Figure 1). As such, this

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analysis will focus on the metrics for active ingredients launched post-1990 since data is

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more readily available and the aim is to better understand the newer areas of chemistry,

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and hence more recent driving forces in the current marketplace. From this data an

Since 1991, there has been a continuous flow of new crop protection

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effort is made to identify attributes that allow for the continued success of some first to

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market crop protection products, as well as the attributes that become opportunities for

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follow-on crop protection compounds to build on and surpass their forerunner(s) in

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terms of sales. In the second part of this perspective a number of case studies are

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presented which illustrate the relative importance of the factors in governing how the

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first to market may fare, and how important those attributes may be in determining new

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modes of action (MoAs) offering success in future years.

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DATA

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In an attempt to identify the most important and relevant factors that make a compound

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a sales leader within a class of chemistry, data from selected classes of the nearly 300

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herbicidal, fungicidal and insecticidal active ingredients registered in the last 25 years

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was used in the analysis.

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defined by the Fungicide Resistance Action Committee (FRAC),13 Herbicide Resistance

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Action Committee (HRAC), 14 and the Insecticide Resistance Action Committee (IRAC).

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15

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sales / volume data.16 Since many of the active ingredients launched in the last 25 years

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are still new to the market and have not yet seen significant sales, active ingredients

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included in the analysis had to have 2016 sales of at least $50 million, and have at least

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one member of the class had to have sales of >$100 million for that class to be

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included.

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greater than $50 million in sales, only the top in sales are recorded in Table 1. Lastly,

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compounds belonging to any of the unknown MoA classes, or those with a multisite

Crop protection chemical classes were based on those

The data for the analysis was derived, in part, from launch date and 2016 end-user

If more than five a.is within a class were launched since 1991 and had

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designation were omitted. Some classes were included wherein the first member was

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launched prior to 1991.

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classes / subclasses, with nine of the ten first to market herbicides falling into this

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category. In these cases, the data for the first to launch agrochemical was added back

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to the analysis. Any pre-1991 launched product which was a sales or volume leader

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was added back. Finally, an approximate product launch order is provided in Table 1.

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Pre-1991 compounds within the class as well as those with sales less than $50 million

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were considered when assigning a launch order to a product. No attempt was made to

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distinguish the product launched within the same calendar year and they are treated as

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being introduced into the marketplace concurrently. The resulting 27 crop protection

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chemical classes used for the analysis (Table 1) represent a useful sampling of the

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defined crop protection compound classes, accounting for just under half ($30.2 billion;

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47.8%) of the $63.3 billion 2016 end-user value of the crop protection chemical market.

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Table 1 also includes eight of the top ten products by sales. Most notably missing is the

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number one crop protection product in terms of both sales and volume, glyphosate,

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since it was launched in 1974 and has not had any follow-up analogs that have become

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products. Finally, in addition to data from Agranova,16 for some specific analyses, an

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internal proprietary database was used representing Manufacturer Level Sales

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providing a fair representation of overall market value for the most widely used actives

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and products.

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ANALYSIS.

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Each product area was evaluated, and in doing so it is important to note that there are

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some distinct market differences between herbicides, fungicides and insecticides that

This situation was especially prevalent among herbicide

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influence the value and success of an active ingredient. First, the global herbicide

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market in 2016, at ~$27 billion was roughly 50% larger than either the global fungicide

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(~$18 billion) or insecticide markets (~$16 billion) (Figure 3). Secondly, the herbicide

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and fungicide markets, more so than the current insecticide market, are dependent on

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mixtures of active ingredients, primarily to gain the necessary spectrum to address the

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weed or pathogen complexes in many crop systems.

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product is sold containing a single active ingredient it is often formulated so that the

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grower can easily tank mix it with other pesticidal products. The commercial objective is

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to give the grower a convenient single solution that provides the spectrum of control

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they require. This means that the breadth of spectrum and efficacy of a single herbicide

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or fungicide active ingredient is important, but also how its strengths and weaknesses

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complement the strength and weaknesses of another herbicide and / or fungicide

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selected for tank mixing or developed as a pre-mixture. It is increasingly important to

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understand that the relative efficacy of an herbicide or a fungicide may shift with time

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due to resistance development, which presents opportunities for development of new

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active ingredients and / or mixing partners.

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herbicide area where the cornerstone of a market segment may be the control of a

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single or a few key weed species within a geography, that are no long effectively

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controlled by existing active ingredients

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Also impacting crop protection chemistry use patterns are the changing farm practices

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that have evolved over the last 25 years that have affected the herbicide, fungicide and

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insecticide markets unequally. Specifically, genetically modified (GM) crops been most

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impactful in the herbicide market and least impactful on the fungicide business. Recent

If an herbicidal or fungicidal

This has been especially true in the

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studies suggest GM insect resistant crops have reduced the amount of insecticides

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used on cotton and maize,17,18 impacting the value of these markets for insecticides. In

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contrast, GM crops with herbicide tolerance simply resulted in a significant shift in the

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types of herbicides applied.

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fungicides and insecticides in the seed treatment market.19 The attributes required for a

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successful foliar and seed applied pesticide are not identical, but can at times be met by

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a single active ingredient, as in the case of the insecticide imidacloprid.20 The flexibility

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to use imidacloprid in both market segments contributes to its continued success

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relative to other neonicotinoids.

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One commonality among all three markets is that the agronomic and environmental

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attributes (i.e. soil and water residual, non-target toxicity, bioaccumulation, etc.) of an

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active ingredient do not solely determine its commercial success. The global reach of

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the offering company; registration; marketing; and sales strategies and well as out

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licensing agreements can all impact the trajectory of an active ingredient’s adoption by

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growers. Although important, due to their complexity, and company specific nature,

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these factors (sales, marketing, etc.) are beyond the scope of the present analysis.

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However, regardless of business strategy and its execution, crop protection active

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ingredients which best meet the grower’s and increasingly consumer / societal needs,

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are most likely to have the largest impact in the market.

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HERBICIDES.

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Within the three acetolactate synthase (ALS) inhibitor subclasses (HRAC B1, B2 and

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B3) (Table 1) and the seven other herbicidal MoAs examined, no first to market product

Somewhat tied to GM crops is the growing use of

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currently leads in sales or volume. Three factors have played a role in this. First, the

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nine MoAs in this analysis cover selective herbicides.

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controls unwanted plants, but is safe to the traditionally bred crops. Most often this is

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accomplished by taking advantage of differential metabolism of the active ingredient.21

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Secondly, the coupling of non-selective herbicides, primarily glyphosate and glufosinate,

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with GM row crops expressing resistance to these two herbicides, greatly altered

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herbicide use patterns in the associated crops supplanting a number of selective

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herbicides, and also affecting interest in the discovery and development of new

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herbicides.21

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impacted equally. Those selective herbicides developed for weed control within corn,

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cotton or soybean, in regions accepting GM organisms, like the Americas, were

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impacted to a larger extent than those targeting non-GM crops like rice or wheat.

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However, the recent appearance of weed resistance to a number of herbicides,

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especially glyphosate, has re-kindled interest in new herbicide discovery. Although no

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new herbicidal MoA has been brought to the market in over 25 years,22,23 researchers

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have looked for and found innovative solutions through new active ingredients that act

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within established MoA classes, providing improved attributes over existing options to

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meet growers continually evolving needs. These products were not just targeted for

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non-GM market segments. A newer best-in-class product may exhibit improved efficacy

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or broader spectrum of weed control which could include controlling undesired

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broadleaves or grasses that have developed resistance to other herbicides,24,25

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including the previously mentioned non-selective herbicides. Technology which offers

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the grower increased flexibility is also rewarded in this space.

That is, the active ingredient

Furthermore, not all selective herbicides within a MoA class were

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That could include

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improved selectivity to a single crop, expanding selectivity to cover multiple crops, or a

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shorter soil half-life in the environment that may positively affect crop rotation flexibility

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allowing growers greater leeway to adjust planting decisions based on factors such as

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commodity crop prices.

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FUNGICIDES.

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Unlike herbicides, there has been substantial innovation within the fungicide space in

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bringing new MoAs to the marketplace, and GM fungicide resistant crops have not yet

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been a disruptive technology. Of the eight FRAC target site groups shown in Table 1,

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all active ingredients within five of the MoA classes were launched within the last 25

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years. Within the three groups in which the first to market active ingredient was

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launched pre-1990, none remain as sales leaders, including metalaxyl.

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the factors making sales leaders of particular follow-on herbicides, superior efficacy and

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environmental fate attributes26,27 of the follower, mefenoxam, drove its success. It is a

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somewhat unique example though, in that mefenoxam [R methyl-N-2-(methoxyacetyl)-

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N-(2.6-xylyl)-alanate)] is simply the bioactive (R)-isomer of metalaxyl. In addition to the

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active ingredient within mefenoxam, half of the material within metalaxyl is its

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stereochemical isomer with the S-configuration, which is ~1000 times less potent.27

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Interestingly, the innovation in this instance is really the heterogeneous chemical

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catalysis process that allowed for the multi-ton preparation of the key chiral

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intermediate, methyl R N-(2,6-dimethylphenylalanate), on route to mefonaxam.28

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The evolution of succinate dehydrogenase inhibitors (SDHI) is also illustrative of factors

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influencing the success of a.is within a class over time. Carboxin the first commercial

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Analogous to

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SDHI was launched primarily as a seed treatment in 1966. The utility of the SDHI MoA

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against additional fungal market segments was demonstrated with thifluzamide (Rohm

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& Haas, 1997), which could be applied foliarly as well as via seed treatment, and then

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followed by boscalid (BASF, 2003) which offered additional spectrum. Changing pest

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pressure has also impacted this chemical class. Since 2000, Asian soybean rust, which

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many SDHI fungicides perform well against, has become a major problem with >US$ 2

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billion being spent annually in Brazil alone on chemical control of this pathogen.29

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Almost 50 years after the launch of a product in this FRAC group, agrochemical

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discovery groups continue to mine this well-established MoA area as shown by the

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recent registration submissions for impyrfluxam.30

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Within the MoA classes where the first to market active ingredient was launched within

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the last 25 years, three of the five offerings remain market sales and volume leaders.

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Two offerings, ametoctradin and fludioxonil, FRAC categories C8 and E2 respectively,

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represent molecules used in products leading to significant market value, but without

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apparent competitive fast-follow molecules.

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competitors were not using these early entries as templates for follow-on innovation, but

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the lack of new innovation around these particular fungicide classes may be due to a

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number of factors that coalesced to limit a.is that act via these MoAs and possess

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properties that would allow them to be commercially competitive in more economically

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valuable fungicide market segments. This has not been the case within the chemistries

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that act at the mitochondrial electron transport complex III Q0 site as shown by the

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research / patent activity in the late 1980s and 1990s.31,32 A number of major

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agrochemical companies of the time (Zeneca Agrochemicals,33 BASF,34 Novartis35 and

This should not be interpreted that

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DuPont36) saw the value proposition around the mitochondrial electron transport

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complex III Q0 site inhibitors and their research resulted in four products being launched

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in quick succession in 1998 and 1999. Azoxystrobin (Zeneca), launched in 1998 clearly

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differentiated from kresoxim-methyl in terms of pathogen spectrum and global crop

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utility, which is reflected in its current (2016) higher standing in sales (Table 1).

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INSECTICIDES.

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In this arena the crop protection industry has been the most prolific in bringing new

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MoAs to the market place. Of the two subgroups and seven other major insecticidal

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MoA groupings in this analysis (Table 1), products in all but two were launched after

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1991. Also striking is the number of first to market active ingredients which remain a

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market leader. Abamectin launched before 1991, as well as six of the seven first to

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market MoA products launched post-1990, have held on to their number one sales and

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volume leadership, four of these are doing so even 20 years after launch. Like the

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fungicide azoxystrobin, excellent spectrum and global crop utility is key to keeping them

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best-in-class. In addition two of the insecticides, spinosad and abamectin, are unique

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among all market leaders in that these two are complex natural products produced via

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fermentation rather than chemical synthesis. Many of the technologies, capabilities and

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infrastructure to discover and bring to market fermentation derived products differ from

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those required for traditional synthetic crop protection products.

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AgroSciences further capitalized on those competitive advantages by developing semi-

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synthetic derivatives, emamectin benzoate37 and spinetoram,38 respectively, which

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provided an altered or enhanced spectrum coupled with improved efficacy.

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Merck and Dow

Both of

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these active ingredients became successful insecticides, but in 2016 had not yet

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eclipsed their natural product predecessors (Table 1).

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insecticides fewer followers within a class is observed, relative to what is observed

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among herbicides and to a lesser extent fungicides.

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competition within the molecules of a MoA class, which contributes to some extent to

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the number of first to market active ingredients that remain leaders within their grouping.

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There may be a number of reasons for fewer follow-on chemistries among insecticides.

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First, of the seven MoA groupings comprised of synthetically manufactured active

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ingredients, all members within six of the groupings were launched less than 25 year

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ago, thus the time window for research organizations to discover and develop follow-on

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chemistry within many of the insecticidal MoA classes has been shorter when compared

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to the more mature herbicide and fungicide MoA classes. Second, the fact that there are

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fewer discovery organizations to follow-on due to industry consolidation over this same

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time period has likely played a role as well.4,5 Also, in the case of the two insecticidal

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voltage dependent sodium channel blockers indoxacarb (IRAC Group 22A)38 and

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metaflumizone (IRAC Group 22B),40 there are no class followers despite being an active

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area of research by a number of companies.41,42 In this space, environmental fate

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issues as well as identifying blockers with high insect efficacy and an acceptable

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therapeutic index vs. homologous target site of non-target animal species was a

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challenge.41

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SELECTED CASE STUDIES

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Even among synthetic

Fewer followers mean less

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The following case studies were selected to highlight the factors which enabled the first

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to market within a chemical class / MoA group to remain the economic winner

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(glyphosate and spinosad) or makes it vulnerable to being supplanted by a follow-on

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offering (demethylase Inhibitor (DMI) class of fungicides and cyclic ketoenols).

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Glyphosate (HRAC G). Glyphosate, launched as the first commercial herbicidal 5-

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enolpyruvyl-3-shikimate phosphate synthase (EPSPS) inhibitor remains the market

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leader within its MoA class after 45 years. Based solely on this active ingredient

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effectiveness at controlling a broad spectrum of perennial weeds and favorable

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environmental profile vs. many other hericides,43 one might expect some difficulty in

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dethroning it as the market leader within the EPSPS class.

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EPSPS class, discounting the trimesium salt of glyphosate, is no other HRAC-

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recognized EPSPS herbicide has been launched within this time span. That after all

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these years no other commercially efficacious active ingredient in this space has been

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launched speaks to the very narrow structure activity requirements about the EPSPS

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target site.

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Glyphosate, in the context of coupling an herbicidal MoA with a transgenic herbicide

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resistant crop was actually a fast follower behind bromoxynil resistant cotton and

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glufosinate resistant canola.44

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introduced in 1996. By 2015 half the acreage of genetically modified crops contained a

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glyphosate resistance trait, and over half the volume of glyphosate used that year was

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applied to those crops.23 The previously mentioned spectrum of glyphosate, favorable

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environmental properties, plus technological advancements that allowed for improved

What is unique about the

Glyphosate resistant canola and soybean were

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crop tolerance traits to be incorporated in elite row crop lines without yield drag23,44

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propelled and kept glyphosate as the leader in this segment. In the upcoming years

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glyphosate, in relation to its use against genetically modified crops, may come under

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pressure from other non-selective herbicides as weed resistance to glyphosate grows

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and new herbicidal resistant traits (2,4-D, etc.) come on line.

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C-14 Demethylase Inhibitor Fungicides (FRAC G1). The clearest example of a first to

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launch fungicide being surpassed by later entrants in the same MoA is shown by the

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Demethylase Inhibitor (DMI) class of fungicides.

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with an initial focus on cucurbits, fruits and ornamentals in 1969.

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pyrimidine-carbinol DMI fungicide followed in 197545 with registrations in tree fruits and

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vines.

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innovations by a number research companies. The result, a succession of 25 triazole

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DMI fungicides having been launched since 1976,46 producing over this period of time a

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series of new fungicidal DMI market leaders, starting with triadimefon and progressing

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from propiconazole, to tebuconazole and prothioconazole.46

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chemistry were explored, newer molecules brought forward properties that not only

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broadened the spectrum of pathogens controlled, but also increased the overall crop

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utility and thus sales. No database captures the total breadth of crops in which DMI’s

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are used, however, one would just need to look at a label for triforine compared to

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tebuconazole to see the incredible expansion in utility that has occurred with continued

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innovation. Clearly, the earliest DMI patents opened the door for decades of innovation

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that continues today with recent announcements from BASF for mefentrifluconazole

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(trade name Revysol™)47 which is reported to be more intrinsically active at the target

Triforine was the first registered DMI Fenarimol, a

Initial triazole discoveries by Janssen Pharmaceuticals led to a series of

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As new avenues of

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site than other azoles and effective against many resistant pathogen strains48 that have

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eroded the overall effectiveness of the DMI fungicides through the years. Over the last

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decade the environmental impact versus economic importance of many members of this

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class have been a contentious issue, especially in Europe.49

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opportunity may exist for yet a new DMI market leader with attributes that are more

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closely aligned with the economic and environmental goals of the stakeholders in this

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debate.

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Spinosyns (IRAC Group 5). The spinosyns are fermentation derived natural products

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(NP) discovered through a NP screening program in the mid-1980s.50,51 Launched in

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1997, spinosad is a naturally occurring mixture of two of the most insecticidal spinosyns,

334

spinosyns, A and D.51 Spinosad acts at an allosteric site on the α6 subunit of the insect

335

nicotinic acetylcholine receptor,52 the first class of insecticidal chemistry to exhibit this

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MoA.

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because of its effectiveness in controlling a range of chewing insect pests, novel MoA

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and very favorable environmental and toxicological profile.51

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spinosyn-based product was launched, spinetoram, a semi-synthetic derivative with an

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improved spectrum and efficacy.52 Spinetoram is the result of an extensive structure

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activity exploration, ultimately successfully driven by an artificial intelligence-based

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quantitative structure activity approach.38 Thus far, spinosad has retained its market

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leadership in this small class of insecticides, primarily due to the complexities

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associated with a challenging fermentation process and associated strain improvement.

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However, it is anticipated that in the near future spinetoram could become the market

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leader in this novel class of insecticides. While other spinosyn derivatives have been

Going forward, the

Spinosad is widely used in organic as well as conventional farming in part

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In 2007 a second

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investigated,53 to date only spinosad and spinetoram have been commercialized.

348

Although there have been a number of published synthetic approaches to the spinosyn

349

core,54 the excessive number of chemical and / or enzymatic steps (29–44) involved

350

makes synthetic production of the spinosyn macrolide an unattractive route to support

351

even a limited SAR program, let alone serving as a basis for a production route.

352

Hence, thus far, production of the spinosyns has remained through fermentation.

353

However, two decades after the launch of spinosad, the successful de novo design of

354

synthetic spinosyn mimics has been reported wherein the spinosyn macrolide core has

355

been replaced by a simple triaryl ring system; the first time that a synthetic mimic of a

356

macrolide NP has been successfully simplified in either crop protection of

357

pharmaceuticals.55

358

class of insecticides.

359

Cyclic Ketoenols. The cyclic ketoenols are a novel group of tetronic and tetramic acid

360

derivatives effective on a range of mite and sap-feeding insects currently composed of

361

spirodiclofen,

362

development). The first compound in this class, spirodiclofen, appeared in the ISO

363

common names listing in 200056 and was registered in 2002. Spirodiclofen came out of

364

a research program on herbicidal protoporphyrinogen-IX-oxidase inhibitors that

365

morphed into a series of herbicidal acetyl CoA carboxylase inhibitors, which in turn

366

further morphed into the tetronic acids which were then found to exhibit miticidal

367

activity.57 Further exploration of this area of chemistry then lead to spiromesifen, a new

368

analog with good activity on whiteflies (i.e. Bemisa tabaci), as well as mites,58 launched

369

a year after spirodiclofen in 2003.

Thus the possibility exists for new future additions to the spinosyn

spiromesifen,

spirotetramat

and

most

recently

spiropidion

(in

A third molecule in this series (spirotetramat) that

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370

has become the class market leader, resulted from a parallel discovery effort around

371

tetramic acids,58 exhibiting a broad spectrum of activity against sap-feeding insects and

372

both phloem and xylem mobility.57,58 Launched in 2008, spirotetramat has had a far

373

larger impact on the market (based on sales) than the other members of this class

374

(Table 1) with sales (2016 end user, USD) of $326 million versus $181 million and $81

375

million for spiromesifen and spirodiclofen, respectively. In this case the broad spectrum

376

sap-feeding insect activity has been an important factor in the greater use of

377

spirotetramat, especially as a control option for sap-feeding insects resistant to

378

mainstream insecticides such as the neonicotinoids. Other new potential products in

379

this class of insecticides are being investigated by other companies (i.e. spiropidion56 by

380

Syngenta).

381

382

FUTURE PROSPECTS FOR FIRST TO MARKET PESTICIDES

383

As outlined above, there are a number of parameters that can and have impacted

384

whether the first active ingredient in a new class remains the market leader or is

385

supplanted by a later follow-on compound. The relative importance of these parameters

386

will vary based on the nature of the active ingredient, its target therapeutic area,

387

intended crop(s) and company goals / emphasis. These factors can include;

388

1 – Resistance or shifting pest spectrum in the market place.

389

2 – Regulatory or other significant advantage: i.e. new MoA, improved environmental or

390 391

toxicological profile. 3 – Improved efficacy

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4 – New technology to allow exploitation: i.e. coupling with transgenic plants, new delivery options or other tools. 5 - Speed of follow-up: i.e. fast follow (within a year or two) vs. slow follow (5 to 10 years after initial product).

396

6 – Barriers to entry: such as complex chemistry or fermentation

397

7 – Improvements in synthetic routes or synthetic building blocks allowing new options.

398

8 – Marketing effectiveness of a company.

399 400

These parameters, and likely others, can have an effect singly, or in many instances it is

401

a combination of several of these factors that leads to market significance.

402 403

The consolidation that has occurred in the agrochemical side of the crop protection

404

industry has resulted in fewer, but far larger companies,5 that are capable of funding the

405

increasing costs of discovery, development and registration of new crop protection

406

chemicals.5,7 One potential consequence is that the number of competing active

407

ingredients in a new class of chemistry is likely to be smaller than in the past11 due to

408

fewer different companies exploring a particular area. As such, the first compound in a

409

new class may have an advantage if it provides a suitable combination of efficacy,

410

spectrum, affordability and favorable regulatory / environmental profile. Since any new

411

product is by necessity an attempt to balance these parameters, the relative success at

412

addressing all of these components will influence the relative ease or difficultly for

413

competing active ingredients to make inroads.

414

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415

In reviewing the data in Table 1, it is notable that the majority of the companies listed

416

are US and European, and few from Asia (e.g. Japan). In part this is an artifact of

417

selection criteria used, coupled with listing only the top five molecules in a class. As

418

noted earlier, many crop protection classes are rather large, especially those that have

419

been around for some time including a number of herbicides: sulfonylureas (39),

420

triazines (34), auxins (25+);59 fungicides: strobilurins (20), SDHIs (21), triazoles (31);59

421

and insecticides: carbamates (42), pyrethroids (80), organophosphates (165).11

422

many instances Japanese companies have also developed products for these and other

423

classes; however, due to the their smaller corporate size and the rising cost of

424

development, especially for global registrations, some of these companies need to co-

425

develop or license out their discoveries,5 thus losing some of the benefits of being first

426

to market.

In

427 428

As noted above, only one class of herbicides that fit our analysis parameters, was

429

developed since 1991 (triazolopyrimidines, ALS inhibitors) and the first product in that

430

class has been eclipsed by a number of more recently developed analogs (Table 1). All

431

other herbicides belong to classes which had their origins prior to 1991, and in all cases

432

the first compound in that class is now far exceeded in terms of sales by more recent

433

class members. The situation is similar for fungicides, with the exception of the largest

434

class of fungicides, the strobilurins, wherein the first member of the class, azoxystrobin,

435

has remained the market leader (Table 1).

436

resistance was slower to emerge as a problem, especially when compared to the

437

insecticides.3,5

For both herbicides and fungicides,

However, the increasing rise of both herbicide and fungicide

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resistance,3,60 will likely alter the current landscape making any new fungicide with a

439

new MoA, or especially a new herbicide with a new MoA, a difficult molecule to easily

440

displace.

441

Also as noted above, it is only in the insecticide arena that most first to market

442

molecules developed since 1991 have retained their market leading positions (Table 1).

443

It is also among the insecticides where several new classes with new MoAs have been

444

developed since 1991.11 In part this state of affairs is in response to a combination of

445

expanding insecticide resistance,3,5 desire for more environmentally favorable

446

compounds5,11 coupled with the need to find suitable replacements for many members

447

of older classes of chemistry.

448

that the size of new and future classes of chemistry are likely to remain small, with only

449

a few members. Thus, for insecticides there appears to be a greater likelihood for the

450

first molecule in a class to remain the prevailing product for some period of time.

451

Thus as outlined above, perhaps now more than in the past, the prospects for the first

452

molecule in any one of the therapeutic areas is likely to have a significant advantage.

453

Although the first into a new area of chemistry has to work out all of the issues for that

454

chemistry, potentially forging a path for others to follow, that company also captures an

455

initial patent estate for that chemistry. Patents from each company have gotten larger,

456

more numerous, and more complex, making it that much more challenging to break into

457

an area of chemistry, although it is obviously occurring. That is why, in many instances,

458

the time investment in discovering a new area of chemistry is no greater than trying to

459

break into an existing area of chemistry.4

460

market space and gets to set the stage for grower use, perception and consumer

As noted previously,11 it is also within the insecticides

Additionally, first to market captures the

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461

acceptance. Conversely, next generation molecules can potentially be positioned to

462

address gaps in spectrum, show efficacy increases and provide additional convenience

463

for the grower, all assuming that the first molecule leaves such gaps open.

464

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

465

The authors thank Drs. Jeffrey Nelson and Michael Loso for useful discussions and

466

comments during the preparation of this article.

467

reviewers and especially the Editor for their very useful suggestions.

We also thank the anonymous

468

469

The authors declare no competing financial interest.

470

Author Contributions: BAL & TCS defined the project, JEH & TCS with assistance from

471

RJB, GH, GK & REG conducted the data analysis; all authors contributed to organizing,

472

writing and editing the manuscript.

473

474

REFERENCES

475

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Figure Legends

650

Figure 1. Product areas of new active ingredients launched since 1991. Data derived

651

from launch dates.16

652 653

Figure 2. Global value of new active ingredients launched before and after 1991, and

654

among fungicide, herbicides and insecticides launched since 1991. Data derived from

655

2016 end user sales.16

656 657

Figure 3. Distribution of the global crop protection chemicals market – 2016 end user

658

sales.16

659 660

Figure 4. Total modes of action as defined by FRAC13, HRAC14 and IRAC.15 Excludes

661

unknown, multisite inhibitors or target site subgroups.

662

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Figure 1.

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Figure 2.

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Figure 3.

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Figure 4.

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Table 1. Year of Launch and End User Sales for Selected HRAC, FRAC and IRAC Mode of Action Groups

Herbicides HRAC

B1

B2

B3

C1

E

F2

Class / Compound

Company

Launch Year & 1 (Discovery Company)

2

Launch 3 Order

Acetyl CoA carboxylase inhibitors diclofop-methyl 4 fenoxaprop-P-ethyl* clodinafop-propargyl haloxyfop-P-methyl cyhalofop-butyl 5 pinoxaden

Bayer CropScience Bayer CropScience Syngenta Dow AgroSciences Dow AgroSciences Syngenta

1975 (Hoeschst) 1990 (Hoeschst) 1995 (Ciba-Geigy) 1995 (Dow) 1996 (Dow) 2006 (Syngenta)

54 326 345 103 114 369

1 9 12 12 14 17

Sulfonylureas chlorsulfuron primisulfuron-methyl nicosulfuron* iodosulfuron-methyl sodium mesosulfuron-methyl trifloxysulfuron-sodium

Du Pont Syngenta Ishihara Sangyo Kaisha Bayer CropScience Bayer CropScience Syngenta

1982 (DuPont) 1991 (Ciba-Geigy) 6 1992 (ISK) 1999 (AgrEvo) 2001 (AgrEvo) 2001 (Ciba-Geigy)

28 116 373 214 419 151

1 9 12 26 27 27

Imidazolinones imazapyr imazethapyr* imazapic imazamox

BASF BASF BASF BASF

1985 (AmCy) 1989 (AmCy) 1996 (AmCy) 1997 (AmCy)

90 250 56 163

1 4 5 6

Triazolopyrimides flumetsulam diclosulam florasulam penoxsulam pyroxsulam thiencarbazone-methyl

Dow AgroSciences Dow AgroSciences Dow AgroSciences Dow AgroSciences Dow AgroSciences Bayer CropScience

1994 (Dow) 1998 (Dow) 1999 (Dow) 8 2004 (DAS) 2008 (DAS) 2008 (DAS)

55 167 236 276 220 209

1 7 9 13 14 14

Triazines simazine atrazine* amicarbazone

Syngenta Syngenta Arysta LifeScience

1955 (Geigy) 1957 (Geigy) 2004 (Bayer)

47 210 64

1 2 17

PPO inhibitors oxadiazon flumioxazin sulfentrazone carfentrazone-ethyl* saflufenacil pyraclonil

Bayer CropScience Sumitomo Chemical FMC FMC BASF Bayer CropScience

1969 (AgrEvo) 1992 (Sumitomo) 1996 (FMC) 1997 (FMC) 2009 (BASF) 2009 (AgrEvo)

87 239 325 291 271 96

1 8 11 13 20 20

Triketones pyrazoxyfen isoxaflutole mesotrione* topramezone tembotrione pyrasulfotole

Ishihara Sangyo Kaisha Bayer CropScience Syngenta BASF Bayer CropScience Bayer CropScience

1986 (ISK) 1998 (Rhône-Poulenc) 2001 (Syngenta) 2006 (BASF) 2007 (Bayer) 2008 (Bayer)

7 239 865 166 246 180

1 5 6 8 9 10

7

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Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry

K3

L

O

Benzamides propachlor acetochlor* metazachlor S-metolachlor flufenacet dimethenamid-P

Monsanto Monsanto BASF Syngenta Bayer CropScience BASF

1965 (Monsanto) 1991 (Monsanto) 1993 (BASF) 1997 (Ciba-Geigy) 1998 (Bayer) 2000 (Sandoz)

7 494 146 530 144 271

1 11 12 16 17 18

CBI inhibitors dichlobenil quinclorac* indaziflam

Generic BASF Bayer CropScience

1960 (Philips-Duphar) 1991 (BASF) 2010 (Bayer)

4 55 133

1 3 4

Auxins MCPA 2,4-D* aminopyralid

Generic Generic Dow AgroSciences

1940s (multiple) 9 1940s (multiple) 2006 (DowElanco)

91 569 192

1 4 23

9

Fungicides FRAC

C2

C3

C8

D1

E2

G1

Class / Compound

Company

Launch Year (Discovery company)

Sales

Launch order

Phenylamides metalaxyl* mefenoxam

Syngenta Syngenta

1983 (Ciba-Geigy) 1996 (Ciba-Geigy)

162 240

1 5

SDHIs carboxin boscalid* penthiopyrad isopyrazam bixafen fluxapyroxad

Chemtura (Crompton) BASF Mitsui Chemicals Agro Syngenta Bayer CropScience BASF

1966 (Uniroyal) 2003 (BASF) 2008 (Mitsui) 2010 (Syngenta) 2011 (Bayer) 2011 (BASF)

70 433 134 280 280 154

1 7 8 9 10 10

Strobilurins azoxystrobin* kresoxim-methyl trifloxystrobin pyraclostrobin picoxystrobin fluoxastrobin

Syngenta BASF Bayer CropScience BASF Syngenta Bayer CropScience

1998 (Zeneca) 1998 (BASF) 1999 (Novartis) 2001 (BASF) 2001 (Zeneca) 2005 (Bayer)

1,758 276 1,110 1,402 169 405

1 1 4 7 7 11

Triazolopyrimidyl amines ametoctradin*

BASF

2010 (BASF)

101

1

Anilinopyrimidines pyrimethanil* cyprodinil

BASF Syngenta

1994 (Schering) 1995 (Ciba-Geigy)

60 173

1 2

Phenylpyrroles fludioxonil*

Syngenta

1995 (Ciba-Geigy)

190

1

C14-Demethylase inhibitors triforine prochloraz* difenoconazole

BASF BASF Syngenta

1969 (Celamerck) 1983 (Boots) 1991 (Ciba-Geigy)

2 95 395

1 5 18

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tetraconazole epoxiconazole prothioconazole

Isagro-Ricerca BASF Bayer CropScience

1993 (Agrimont) 1995 (BASF) 2004 (Bayer)

104 443 729

20 27 33

Carboxylic acid amides dimethomorph* iprovalicarb mandipropamid

BASF Bayer CropScience Syngenta

1994 (Celamerck) 1998 (Bayer) 2008 (Syngenta)

142 53 238

1 2 5

Company

Launch Year (Discovery company)

Insecticides IRAC

Class / Compound

2B

Phenylpyrazoles

fipronil* ethiprole 4A

05

06

22A 22B 23

28

1

Sales

Launch order

BASF

1994 (Rhône-Poulenc)

616

1

Bayer CropScience

2005 (Rhône Poulenc)

66

2

Neonicotinoids imidacloprid* acetamiprid thiamethoxam thiacloprid clothianidin dinotefuran

Bayer CropScience Nippon Soda Syngenta Bayer CropScience Sumitomo Chemical Mitsui Chemicals Agro

1994 (Nihon Bayer) 1996 (Nippon Soda) 1997 (Syngenta) 2000 (Nihon Bayer) 2002 (Takada) 2002 (Mitsui)

1,322 377 1,302 165 565 105

1 2 4 5 6 6

Spinosyns spinosad* spinetoram

Dow AgroSciences Dow AgroSciences

1997 (Elanco) 2008 (DAS)

293 125

1 2

AvermectinsMilbemycins abamectin* milbemectin emamectin benzoate

Syngenta Mitsui Chemicals Agro Syngenta

1988 (Merck) 1992 (Sankyo Agro) 1998 (Merck)

1,040 74 185

1 2 3

Oxadiazines Indoxacarb*

DuPont

1998 (DuPont)

212

1

Semicarbazones metaflumizone*

BASF

2007 (Nihon Nohyaku)

111

1

Ketoenols spirodiclofen spiromesifen spirotetramat*

Bayer CropScience Bayer CropScience Bayer CropScience

2002 (Bayer) 2003 (Bayer) 2008 (Bayer)

81 181 326

1 2 3

Diamides flubendiamide chlorantraniliprole* cyantranilaprole

Nihon Nohyaku / Bayer Du Pont Du Pont

2007 (Nihon Nohyaku) 2007 (DuPont) 2012 (DuPont)

392 1,235 62

1 1 3

16

61

Data adapted in part from Agranova and The Pesticide Manual 16 Millions USD, data from Agranova 3 The estimated order in which a compound was launched relative to the first compound listed 4 * = volume leader 5 Bold = sales leader 6 Ishihara Sangyo Kaisha 2

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Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry

7

American Cyanamid Dow AgroSciences 9 62 Discovered simultaneously and independently by several different groups / companies 8

ACS Paragon Plus Environment

Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry

Graphical Abstract

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