4
POLYMERS AND COATINGS
Growth still outstanding in polymers MARGARET S. McDONALD, Associate Editor, Washington, D.C.
Despite some setbacks in a few man-made fibers, 1966 continued the long record of increasing output for plastics and resins, elastomers, coatings, and most of the fibers
R
apid growth is still the outstanding property of the polymer business. There were some setbacks in fibers last year, but in the other segments growth was unblemished. The Federal Reserve Board's index of production (based on 1957-59 output equivalent to 100) for synthetic materials—plastics, synthetic rubber, and man-made fibers—rose to 288.5 from 257 a year earlier. For comparison, the 1966 FRB indexes of production for some of the synthetics' competitive materials: steel ingot, 141; aluminum, 174; cotton yarns and fabrics, 125.5; pulp and paper, 148; leather, 94; and wool textiles, 97. The production index for plastics climbed 40 percentage points last year to 338.6. That for synthetic rubber went up 13 points to 166.5 and the index for man-made fibers was up 26 points to 263.
ing plants went on stream near the end of the year. The Vietnam war was partly responsible for the strained capacity. Polystyrene is an important ingredient of napalm—about 50% of the Air Force's napalm-B is polystyrene. Among the vinyls, polyvinyl chloride is the most important. Very nearly 2.2 billion pounds of it were produced last year—an increase of about 2 0 % . Growth has been averaging about 15% a year for PVC since 1960. Most projections put PVC output in the neighborhood of 3.7 billion pounds by 1970. Capacity for PVC was about 2.8 billion pounds last year. According to R. E. Welch of B. F. Goodrich, announced and planned expansions that appear likely could put the total at 4.5 billion pounds a year by 1970. He says this will be ample unless an
Plastics and resins
Output of some resins slowing this year and next
More than 13.5 billion pounds. That was the output of U.S. plastics producers in 1966. 16% more than in 1965. The greatest one-year gain in the industry's history. The figures are from the Society of the Plastics Industry; official Tariff Commission figures are not yet available. The big three thermoplastics led the way, polyethylene, the vinyls, and the styrenes accounting for nearly two thirds of the volume. Polystyrene production last year was probably at 100% of capacity. It reached 1.6 billion pounds while capacity, at midyear, was nominally about 40 million pounds a year under that total. Several expansions to exist68A C&EN SEPT. 4, 1967
1964
Alkyd resins Cellulosics Coumarone-indene resins Epoxy resins Phenolic resins Polyester resins Polyethylene: Low density High density Polypropylene Polystyrene Polyvinyl chloride Styrene resins, all types Urea and melamine resins a
application now in its infancy, such as vinyl siding for home building for example, should "really take off." High- and low-density polyethylene production totaled 3.6 billion pounds last year. The growth in high-density PE output has been averaging 20% a year since 1963. Its output this year will almost certainly top 1 billion pounds; output for low-density may exceed 3 billion pounds. Slicing the plastics pie another way, T. T. Miller, board chairman of the Society of the Plastics Industry, says construction accounted for more than 3 billion pounds of plastics last year. It is the largest market for plastics. By 1970 or soon thereafter, he forecasts, construction will be using plastics at the rate of 7 billion pounds a year. Walls, partitions, and floors take about a billion pounds a year now, he says,
1965
Millions of pounds 1966 1967a
1968*
594 161 354 105 833 317
586 170 324 111 922 399
614 191 333 138 983 453
590 200 310 150 1100 560
590 215 310 170 1200 680
1955 658 270 1276 1637 1728 570
2263 785 374 1369 1820 2033 621
2648 911 557 1614 2178 2397 633
3000 1100 760 1800 2400 2800 690
3450 1300 1060 2050 2500 3300 740
C&EN estimates based on four-year trends. Source: U.S. Tariff Commission
and in the next few years he expects there will be considerable volume in plastic pipe, acrylic sheet for glazing, and one-piece plastic shower stalls, tubs, and even entire bathrooms. Packaging is plastics' second largest market. The count was 2.6 billion pounds in 1966 and could be 4 billion by 1970, says Mr. Miller. The plastic bottle—particularly the clear PVC bottle—got a lot of attention last year. According to a publicity release from Monsanto, which is big in plastic bottles, there were about 100 million PVC bottles used in 1966, three times the 1965 number. In 1967, according to the company's director of packaging sales, James R. Lees, use of PVC bottles will double. Food and Drug Administration clearance of a PVC material for use in making clear plastic bottles for packaging food would open up a 500 million bottle market that is now unreachable. At 10 bottles to the pound of plastic, 500 million bottles wouldn't carry much weight in the 2.2 billion pound-peryear world of PVC. But it would be a nice steady business. Polyethylene is unquestionably the plastic in the bottle market now. Out of last year's 300 million pounds of plastic bottles (3.1 million units), all but 15.2 million pounds was polyethylene, predominantly high-density. Use of all other resins in bottles doubled last year while polyethylene's use went up about 10%. In the first quarter of this year, bottle use of resins other than polyethylene tripled, reaching 6.7 million pounds. The plastic milk bottle, introduced in 1965, accounted for about 25 million pounds of polyethylene last year, according to SPI. Forty dairies are using them and 200 are testing them. Use of plastic bottles for beverages is a particularly intriguing prospectthere are a lot of soft drinks and alcoholic beverages, as well as milk, packaged in bottles in this country. In Europe, German brewers and French winemakers are using PVC bottles. Plastics in autos is an old story by now—500 million pounds this year vs. 350 million last year and 1 billion in 1970. In appliances, one prediction is for 530 million pounds by 1970. Furniture is another growing market for plastics—100 million pounds of foam last year is the SPI estimate. Bedding took 45 million pounds. There's also "atomic wood," hardly a marketable product yet because of cost. Atomic wood is formed by forcing methyl methacrylate into wood under pressure and subjecting it to gamma radiation. The result is a material that combines the best of both plastic and wood. Use of radiation polymerization has possibilities in several other polymer areas as well.
Elastomers Synthetic rubber output in the U.S. last year went up 8% to reach a total that just missed 2 million long tons. This year, it should top that mark, but the long strike in Akron tire plants and elsewhere in the rubber industry (from mid-April until mid-July), plus the year's dawdling automotive sales, could prevent it. Total output for the first five months of this year was almost 100,000 long tons less than the 822,000 long tons produced in the first five months of 1966. Strike jitters in Detroit and elsewhere in the auto industry won't help matters. The rubber industry shipped more than 150 million passenger car tires in 1966. About 102 million of them went to the replacement market. Big increases in replacement tire sales this year were predicted in the year-end statements of Goodrich, Uniroyal, and Firestone. Firestone forecast 107.5 million, Uniroyal predicted 108 million total, and Goodrich predicted 112 million. They were not expecting an increase in the original equipment market. Even before the tire industry strike started in April, shipments were down 7.66% for the first quarter, 33.8 million passenger car tires this year vs. 36.6 million a year earlier. The replacement market, however, was up 2.4% to 23.2 million units. It was apparent before the strike that the tire industry might not be able to make a record year out of 1967. Last year tires and tire products consumed more than 1 million long tons of synthetic rubber, roughly 60% of total synthetic use in the U.S. The most spectacular performance among the elastomers again came from the stereorubbers, which include polybutadiene, polyisoprene, and what has now come to be known as EPDM (for ethylene-propylene-diene monomer, formerly ethylene-propylene terpolymer and before that known as plain ethylene-propylene rubber). Polybutadiene is by far the most important of the three, its output accounting for 186,000 long tons of the 272,000 total last year. Tire and tire products consumed nearly 183,000 long tons of the stereorubbers or about two thirds of the year's production. Total use last year was about 230,000 long tons and it could be 265,000 this year. Veteran styrene-butadiene rubber kept right in step last year. Output increased nearly 6% to 1,336,200 long tons and consumption rose a little better than 5% to 1,152,548 long tons. Early in 1966, there was a break in a patent dispute that has raged in the rubber industry since 1950. General Tire & Rubber and Goodyear settled
Onward and upward with the polymers Total plastics and resin production . Billions of pounds
1964 1965 1966 1967a 1968a aC&EN estimates based on four-year trends. Source: U.S. Tariff Commission
Total synthetic fiber production 6000
Millions of pounds
4500
3000
1500
1964 1965 1966 1967a 1968a aC&EN estimates based on four-year trends. Source: Textile Economics Bureau
Total synthetic elastomers production Thousands of long tons
2500 2000 1500
1000 500
1964 1965 1966 1967a 1968a aC&EN estimates based on four-year trends. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
SEPT. 4 f 1967 C & E N
69A
Growth may be slow for some rubbers Thousands of long tons 1965 1966 1967
1968
99 141 188
101 139 219
103 145 272
105* 150b 340b
108* 155b 420b
52
60
71
80b
90b
1255
1262
1336
538
566
587
1340* 600*
1375* 625*
1964 Butyl Neoprene Stereoelastomers Styrene-butadiene N-type, including latex S-type, including latex N a t u r a l , new supply
a C&EN estimates based on seven-year trends. bC&EN estimates based on four-year trends. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
out of court a lawsuit in which General claimed that Goodyear infringed its patent by extending high-Mooney tread rubber with large amounts of hydrocarbon oils. Later, a similar suit against McCreary Tire and Rubber was settled out of court, also, but suits against Firestone and Uniroyal were still pending so settlement terms were not revealed publicly. Synthetic fibers After several years of good times, events conspired in the third quarter of 1966 to shake the man-made fiber industry's confidence. Suddenly, it seemed, imports skyrocketed, prices nosedived, and tight money squeezed new home construction to a standstill (and the carpet market along with it). The first really solid evidence that the fiber business had turned sour came in October with Du Pont and Monsanto's third-quarter financial reports. Both reported lower earnings and blamed fibers. The textile industry accounts for about $1 billion or a third of Du Pont's annual sales. Fibers made up more than a quarter of Monsanto's $1.6 billion in sales last year. Then several other ominous announcements were forthcoming. Celanese made plans to close its 40-yearold rayon plant at Rome, Ga., and quit rayon production all together. Firestone Synthetic Fibers began to curtail output of nylon carpet fiber. American Cyanamid stopped production of acrylic filament. Du Pont curtailed nylon carpet fiber output at Seaford, Del., Monsanto bowed out of spandex fiber and closed down facilities for making it at Rumford, R.I. (Earlier, Union Carbide announced plans for an entry into the spandex field.) Man-made fiber prices were on the skids—the wholesale price index for man-made fiber textile products started out the year at 91.3 (compared with 100 in 1957-59) and declined to 86.9 in December. Polyester staple fiber, 1.5 denier, for instance, was selling, for 84 cents a pound in the first half of the year. In September, the price declined to 78 cents and the following 70A C&EN SEPT. 4, 1967
month to 72 cents. Meanwhile, the price of nylon for hosiery dropped from $3.29 a pound to $2.74. In April of this year, with publication of import data by the Textile Economics Bureau, it became clear that the import situation had changed drastically. • For the first time since 1959, the U.S. was a net importer of man-made fibers and products, 332 million pounds of imports vs. 307 million in exports. • Imports had advanced 39% over the 1965 figure. • Imports of polyester staple nearly doubled, reaching 28.3 million pounds. Nearly 16 million of the total came from Japan. Germany sent 8.8 million pounds. Japan contributed 3.9 million of the 4.8 million pounds of nylon staple imported last year. • Man-made fiber imports alone (excluding products made from fibers) totaled 216 million pounds, 3 1 % from West Germany and 20.4% from Japan, the two biggest suppliers. The 332 million pounds of manmade fiber and fiber products imports represents less than 10% of the nearly 4 billion pounds of synthetics produced in the U.S. last year. But it is not so much actual amount as the sudden buildup that caused the alarm. As a result imports probably got more of the blame for the unsettled conditions in fibers than they really deserve. Overexpansion and its shadow, price
Gains may be tempered for production of man-made fibers
attrition, a slump in consumer markets, tight money, and the decline in residential construction were also factors. As a result, U.S. man-made fiber production fell short of the more than 4 billion pounds a year that had been forecast. A great deal of the pressure appears to have fallen on rayon and acetate. Rayon output actually declined-from 1082 to 1065 million pounds. It had been expected to increase to more than 1.1 billion. One result is that nylon output not only reached 1 billion pounds for the first time but it also surpassed rayon output a year earlier than the forecasters had scheduled. Acetate output in 1966 was higher than 1965's, but it fell short of expectations by perhaps 25 million pounds. Among the noncellulosics, polyesters and polypropylene showed the greatest growth but acrylic fibers took a beating. Polyester output, at 505 million pounds, was a third higher than in the previous year and polyolefin fiber, with output at 97 million pounds, showed a 47% increase. Much of the increase in polyolefin was probably the result of consumer enthusiasm for the indoor-outdoor carpets. Acrylics took a beating. Output actually declined-from 1965's 368 million pounds to 353 million. It had been forecast at close to 400 million pounds. Paint and varnish Factory sales of paint, varnish, and lacquer increased nearly 9% last year, somewhat better than the 7.8% growth shown since 1963. The total was close to $2.4 billion. In gallons, it was 837 million, up 8%. Trade sales amounted to $1.3 billion, up 5%. As defined by the Department of Commerce—official keeper of statistics on paint industry salestrade sales are sales of "stock-type commodities generally distributed through wholesale and retail channels and generally purchased by painters and others for general application on
Rayon fiber Millions of pounds 2000
1500
1000
aC&EN estimates based on four-year trends.
Source: Textile Economics Bureau
500
1964 1965 1966 1967a 1968a
new construction and general maintenance." Although growing, trade sales account for a declining share of the total paint business. Industrial sales, the other big paint market, have been growing by 1 1 % a year since 1963. Last year, the physical volume of industrial sales had already topped trade sales volume. The score was 421.1 million gallons for industrial finishes vs. 415.9 million for trade sales. Industrial finishes are "formulated to meet conditions of application and use of the product to which applied and are generally applied as part of the manufacturing process." Industrial finishes also include coatings "specially formulated for industrial maintenance use requiring protection against extreme temperatures, fungi, chemicals, fumes, etc." Industrial sales topped $1 billion in 1966. It was the first time. The actual total was $1052 million. Projecting present trends shows industrial sales overtaking trade sales in 1971, when industrial sales will be slightly more than half of a total coatings market of $3.5 billion. It was 1964 when the total paint, varnish, and lacquer market crossed the $2 billion line. One of the big and growing outlets for industrial finishes is the coil coating of steel and aluminum sheet that are to be used in manufacturing appliances, cans, mobile homes, and construction products like aluminum siding and guttering. According to the National Coil Coaters Association, 2.2 billion pounds of aluminum and steel were painted before they were formed into products last year. This compares with 2.1 billion pounds in 1965. According to the National Paint, Varnish and Lacquer Association, coil coaters applied more than 20 million gallons of paint ($60 million worth) last year. Other big industrial outlets are automobiles (50 million gallons, worth $160 million), furniture ($65 million worth), prefinished wood (9 million
Acetate fiber
U.S. became net importer of man-made fibers and products in 1966 Millions of pounds
1960 |
1961 Imports
1962
Of the noncellulosics, only acrylic fiber production failed to move ahead last year 1964
1965
805 245 288 45
937 380 368 66 a C&EN estimates based or four-year trends. Source: Textile Economics Bureau
Nylon Polyester Acrylic Olefin
gallons or $22 million). Appliance manufacturers consumed 22 million gallons, worth about $75 million. Metal decorating accounted for 35 million gallons last year or $115 million worth. A substantial part of the metal decorating market is can coating, which consumed $90 million worth last year. The decline in home construction gave the industry some nervous moments in the latter part of the year, but once the sales were actually totaled up, the effect, if any, was minimal. Apparently, would-be owners of new homes gave the old one a coat of fresh paint when tight money delayed their new-home plans. There were many innovations in the
Millions of pounds 1967a 1966 1066 505 353 97
1420-1430 930- 970 470- 535 215- 220
paint industry last year. Among them: • Fluoropolymer coatings for the exterior of industrial and commercial buildings (one by De Soto Chemical Coatings, one by Diamond Alkali, and two by Du Pont). • An exterior latex paint (from PPG Industries) that uses vinyl chloride. Till then, exterior latex paints depended either on acrylate or vinyl acetate. • An acrylic vehicle (from Rohm and Haas) that makes it possible to formulate an acrylic latex paint to give a semigloss finish. • An acrylic coating with higher (up 20%) solids content for automobile finishes (by Celanese Coatings).
4000 Millions of pounds
3000
300
2000
150
1000
1964 1965
1968»
1230-1240 665- 710 400- 465 145- 150
Noncellulosics
600 M i l l i o n s °* pounds
1966 1967» 1968a
1966
Source: Textile Economics Bureau
450
1964 1965
1965
i Exports
Textile glass
600 Millions of pounds
1964
1963
1966 1967a 1968a
1964
1965 1966
1967a 1968a
SEPT. 4, 1967 C&EN 71A
Paint, varnish, and lacquer sales keep up the pace o Billion* of dollars
FfF • l-H-B-• H 1964
1965
1966
1967a
Trade sales
I Industrial sales &C&EN estimates based on four-year trends. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
• Vinyl acetate-ethylene copolymers (from Du Pont and Airco Chemical) for use in exterior paints. Rule 66 and other regulations on the emission of organic solvents in the air are likely to have a big impact on paint technology in the coming years. The paint industry was quick to recognize the precedent-setting possibilities of Los Angeles' Rule 66 for the rest of the country. Rule 66 is the Los Angeles area's regulation on organic solvent emission. It was proposed in 1965, modified (with industry advice and help) and enacted in 1966, and takes effect this year. During this time, paint makers, their customers, and suppliers have been busy reformulating products and installing equipment to comply with Rule 66 and similar regulations elsewhere.
Naval stores Things were looking up for the naval stores industry last year. ("Last year" in the naval stores industry is April 1, 1966, to March 3 1 , 1967.) Gum rosin production declined—mercifully, some said. The drop was almost 25% to 272,940 drums. It was the smallest output of gum rosin on record. The records go back to 1908, which was gum rosin's boom year (according to USDA's 1967 annual report on naval stores). Two million drums were produced that year and they were the only source of naval stores. Now tall oil rosin is produced as a by-product of the pulp and paper industry in such quantities and for such prices that gum farmers can't hope to compete without government support.
Jim Gillis, president of the American Turpentine Farmers Association Cooperative, to which the gum producers belong, described the situation at the annual naval stores breakfast during the National Paint, Varnish and Lacquer Association meeting in Washington last November: "Gum naval stores production has been on the skids, but it remains an important cash crop in many areas of the southeastern and Gulf states. . . . I expect a continuation of the trend next year. We need it! . . . We need no expert to tell us that gum naval stores are in serious trouble. . . . But please, please don't reserve a plot for us." As a result of the decrease in gum rosin production and an increase in exports of all kinds of rosin (gum, steam distilled, and tall oil), there was a decline of 29,000 drums in the stocks held under USDA's Commodity Credit Corp. program. The total dropped from 815,020 drums at the end of the 1966 crop year to 785,810 at the end of the 1967 year. The gum farmers' output of turpentine likewise declined to the lowest level on record—84,210 barrels, down 24% from the previous year. Steamdistilled turpentine output was also down—to 154,540 barrels from 168,630 a year earlier—but turpentine from the pulp and paper industry reached another record high. Total output for sulfate turpentine (the pulp and paper industry product), at 426,750 barrels, was 1% above the previous year's. Turpentine consumption totaled 557,270 barrels. Chemicals and rubber accounted for 548,870 barrels, the paint, varnish, and lacquer industry for 4330 barrels.
Gum continues to decline as naval stores source Rosin production
Turpentine production
2000 Thousands of 520-pound drums
onn Thousands of 50-gallon barrels out)
1500
600
1000
400
500
200
1965a
1966
• • I Wood •
1967 Qum
aCrop year ends March 31. C&EN estimates based on four-year trends. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture
b
72A
C&EN SEPT. 4, 1967
1968b
1965a
1966
H H Wood
1967
•
Gum
aYear ends March 31. bC&EN estimates based on four-year trends. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture
1968°
