Modelers take another look at Chesapeake Bay nutrient sources New computer modeling results by EPA researchers will provide policy makers with a blueprint for further reducing nitrogen loadings in the Chesapeake Bay. The latest cross-media computer models show that contributions from individual sources have changed, but overall estimates of nitrogen input are consistent with projections EPA first made in 1985. "The loadings are virtually the same. It's the same pie, we are just slicing it differentiy," said Lewis Linker, coordinator of EPA's Chesapeake Bay modeling effort. Earlier, scientists had predicted that total nitrogen loadings from water and airborne sources in die bay watershed were about 365 million pounds annually. But fine-tuning of the watershed models also turned up higher than expected contributions from numerous watershed sources, including sewage treatment plants and farm runoff. Also, for the first
time the modelers estimated the contribution from leaking septic systems. "This is something we never had data on before," said EPA scientist Rich Batiuk. In the new results, the septic tank contribution, now estimated to be 12 million pounds annually, was offset by earlier "overcalibration of other sources," including organic nitrogen, Linker said. Scientists also made adjustments after studies showed that forests had higher retention rates for absorbing atmospheric nitrogen. Although overall totals were consistent, the increases in waterborne nitrogen sources suggested that earlier Chesapeake Bay cleanup goals may prove to be elusive. The results also indicated the need for new control programs to address leaking septic systems and other nonpoint sources. A 1983 agreement among EPA, Maryland, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and the District of Colum-
bia called for a 40% reduction in nitrogen and phosphorus loadings by the year 2000. However, the reductions were based on estimates that roughly 185 million pounds annually from point and nonpoint sources were potentially controllable; the revised estimate is now 226 million pounds. That difference means that control programs designed to cut 74 million pounds of nitrogen annually will now have to cut 90 million pounds to reach the 40% goal. "This is certainly going to create some turmoil for the policy folks," added Batiuk. The parties to the Chesapeake Bay agreement were scheduled to meet on Oct. 30 to discuss the findings and review their cleanup strategy. One option is to abandon the 40% goal and replace it with a cap of about 230 million pounds annually. —RAE TYSON
DOE pushes energy technologies to reduce U.S. greenhouse gases A Department of Energy (DOE) analysis of energy technologies concludes that a strong national commitment to renewable and energy-efficient technologies, including a government-sponsored program and participation from the private sector, can curb the growth in U.S. carbon emissions while keeping consumer energy bills down. The analysis, a year-long peerreviewed study done by five DOE labs, reviews 200 technologies in the manufacturing, building, transportation, and electric utility sectors that reduce carbon dioxide (C02) emissions. The report also takes a long-term look at research and development advances that promise to generate significant energy savings by 2020. An increased market penetration of renewable energy technologies, such as wind power, solar energy, and biofuels, as well as energy-efficient technologies that are readily available or in the works, could help the United States comply with an international agreement to reduce C0 2 emissions to 1990 levels by 2010, ac-
cording to Joseph Romm, DOE acting assistant secretary for energy efficiency and renewable energy. The United States must reduce its carbon emissions by 390 million tons to meet 1990 levels by 2010, DOE says. The use of energy-
"Solar will become an increasingly useful and strategic part of the energy mix." —John Browne, CEO, British Petroleum efficient and low-carbon technologies could cut carbon emissions from 390 to 270 million tons, bringing emissions to 20% above 1990 levels, the report found. Biomass fuels could also help cut carbon emissions. Almost all of the current coal power plants can combust up to 10% of their fuel with biomass without disrupting the current infrastructure, said Romm, reducing not only C0 2 emissions but also sulfur dioxide (S02) emissions. "Technologies
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that can make a contribution [to reducing emissions] by 2010 of 5% to 10% are, in our minds, major areas that we are going to look at seriously," said Romm. To support its conclusion that technologies can hold down the costs of controlling greenhouse gases, the study estimates the costs of emission reductions at $50 billion to $90 billion annually. These costs include "incremental investments" by businesses and consumers to deploy existing technologies. The estimated savings through 2010 from the use of these technologies ranges from $70 billion to $90 billion a year, the researchers found. The report indicates that renewable energy sources can probably be used effectively to bring down carbon emissions after 2010, said Romm. But to get there, widespread use of renewable energy will need a strong push from the government and the private sector, he said. To reduce emissions by the full 390 million tons by 2010, the study models a scenario that includes a national program to pro-
mote technologies along with a domestic emissions trading scheme, including limits on industrial carbon emissions. Several critics, including fossil fuel producers, were quick to point out flaws in DOE's analysis, particularly its inclusion of renewable fuel in the nation's energy mix. The United States "squandered" millions of dollars 20 years ago trying to build up domestic renewable energy resources, and now only 1% of U.S. energy needs are met with solar, wind, and geothermal technologies, said William O'Keefe, chairman of the Global Climate Coalition, a lobbying group that represents major oil, coal, and some manufacturing interests. Others, however, say that investments in renewable fuels are increasing. In a speech made in September, John Browne, CEO of British Petroleum, stressed BP's plans to expand its solar power capacity. The company is installing solar power for the athletes' village for the next Olympics in Sydney, Australia, marking the largest concentration of solar-powered homes connected to the grid anywhere in the world, Browne said. "Solar will become an increasingly useful and strategic part of the energy mix," Browne predicted. In January, ENRON, a Texasbased major gas and electricity supplier, announced its purchase of California-based Zond Corporation, a leading wind power plant developer. Earlier, ENRON bought 50% of a large solar project it shares with Amoco, and it now holds die world's three largest wind contracts. Already, West Coast utility companies are investing in renewable energy resources, although at a slow pace, said John Castagna, spokesperson for the Edison Electric Institute. Pacific Gas & Electric and Southern California Edison are investing in solar and wind'power, said Castagna, because ongoing deregulation of the utility sector will allow consumers the freedom to choose their electricity supplier. "A lot of these companies are looking to make their products more and more attractive to a broader range of consumers across the country," Castagna said. —CATHERINE M. COONEY
EUROPEANNEWS Compliance with existing environmental laws will cost new European Union member states $130 billion (ECU 120 billion), according to EL) environment commissioner Ritt Bjerregaard. "The scale of investment needed is alarming," said Bjerregaard at a September meeting with environment ministers from the 10 central and eastern European countries waiting to join the EU (ES&T, October 1997, p. 459A). The bulk of the investment will be needed for air pollution abatement, water treatment, and waste management. A major expansion of the EU's environmental management and audit system, which will include service industries and products, is likely, according to recent discussions with member states. Launched in 1995, the voluntary EMAS system encourages manufacturers to establish formal environmental systems and continuously improve their performance. EMAS is a more demanding system than the international ISO 14001 environmental management standard. Service industries are already using EMAS in Austria and the United Kingdom. The European Commission is planning to propose a revised EMAS program next year. A plan to cut EU acidification by imposing national emission caps for major air pollutants was widely opposed at a recent meeting of national officials. The European Commission's strategy, proposed in March, would set national emission ceilings for sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and ammonia that would cut by half the area affected by acidification by 2010. The plan's ceilings were criticized as unrealistic and too expensive at the Sept. 11 meeting. German, Danish, Dutch, Belgian, French, and British officials stated that their countries would continue to breach the ceilings even if best available technology were used. Forest conditions in Europe "are worsening," the European Commission said in a report synthesizing a wide range of scientific research. According to the report, released in September, continuing reductions in crown density, a measure of tree health, are due mainly to weather conditions and insect health, but air pollution may also be a factor. The report includes a soil survey that found that more than 40% of the 4500 sampled soils were highly acidic (pH less than 3.5) or had limited buffering capacity, which indicates that further acidification could cause serious damage to tree roots. Denmark is standing behind its controversial "can ban," despite a formal warning from the European Commission. The Danish ban on steel and aluminum beverage cans for beer and soft drinks breaks no EU laws, the Danish government told the commission in August. In July, the commission formally warned Denmark that its ban contravened elements of the 1994 EU packaging directive. According to the Danish government, life-cycle assessment studies demonstrate that the existing system of standardized returnable bottles is best for the environment. A car-free workday in the French town of La Rochelle has been declared a success by town organizers. On Sept. 9, all "smoking vehicles" were banned from the town center for 13 hours in one of the largest car-free experiments in Europe. An estimated 30,000 cars and other vehicles were displaced as citizens cycled, walked, or took advantage of extra public transport services and a small fleet of electric taxis and scooters. According to town officials, concentrations of nitrogen oxides were one-third their usual levels.
—Reprinted with permission from ENDS Environment Daily, Environmental Data Services, Ltd., London (http://www.ends.co.uk, e-mail
[email protected])
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