Hàfele: no escape from hardships
that the population will level off slightly above 8 billion. A 50-year period also was selected because it represents a "natural" cycle of technical inertia. Such a period corresponds, for example, to roughly two generations of plants of the kind found in refineries or electricity generating stations. That is long enough to encompass significant change but short enough to be amenable to realistic analyses. The projected population growth, Hàfele observes, probably means that there will be more nations and, consequently, more international problems. These will be the source of increased "societal constraints" with susceptibility for manipulation by partisan groups. Of the seven regions defined in the study, North America appears to be the most stable throughout the next 50 years and is self-sufficient in energy. One strategy of the study, Hàfele explains, was to analyze the energy situation on several "strata" at the same time. At one level, the study examined the limits of the various energy resources, assuming no economic, institutional, or political constraints on production. At another level, it developed two benchmark scenarios—one for high energy demand and one for low. Many other scenarios have been developed by others and Hàfele observes that these are invariably "gloom-and-doom" scenarios because they seldom look beyond the depletion of present resources. Hàfele 's group, while concentrating on the next 50 years, also recognized that there will be another transition period after 2030 characterized by the use of nondepletable energy sources.
To reach this state, however, will require a great investment in development and technology during the next 50 years. During the transition of the next 50 years, politics will determine "the price we pay in pain," Hàfele says. However, sooner or later "politics will have to follow the technical realities." The scenarios developed by Hafele's group don't pretend to be the only solutions possible but the claim is made that they are comprehensive enough to allow for "no escape from the hardships foreseen." The 50-year study period also corresponds to roughly half the "natural" period for the substitution of one energy form by another. A market penetration model was used in 300 test cases and proved remarkably consistent. The basic idea is that, after capturing a minimum critical portion of a market, usually about 3%, success of a new competitor then is determined by "market forces." The only way that success might be affected externally is by the introduction of a new competitor. Applying these, and other, ideas on a global basis in the future suggests that nuclear power will continue a steady growth. If solar power is to become a competitor, it will have to capture at least 1% of the world market by the end of the century and 7% by 2030. Energy sources such as magnetohydrodynamics and fusion, although recognized, were not considered capable of making significant energy contributions before 2030. Both scenarios developed by IIASA foresee about the same assortment of energy sources and suggest that none can be eliminated safely if demands are to be met. The entire period of the study still will be dominated by fossil fuels, and coal will be in greatest potential supply. Both scenarios and the several modifications have a common feature beyond growing populations and increasing energy demand: There is no doubt that increasing reliance will have to be placed on lower-grade resources. The use of "dirty" resources means more waste to handle and dispose of and correspondingly increased prices. Hàfele believes it is necessary to get started on the energy problem at once and likens the problem to that of making an endowment or investment with available resources. The technology now exists to permit endowment of the future such that the increased population can live from the "interest" rather than by dipping into the "capital" of the energy supply.D
EPA redefines air pollution source The Reagan Administration has taken its first mincing steps towards a more lenient interpretation of clean air rules: Last week the Environmental Protection Agency redefined a pollution source. By defining a source as an entire industrial complex, not individual processes emitting substantial pollution within that complex, Vice President George Bush, chairman of the President's Task Force on Regulatory Relief, said the regulatory burden on industry would be relieved without hampering protection of public health. This proposed rule change by EPA would extend the so-called "bubble concept" to areas of the country currently not meeting ambient air quality standards. In these nonattainment areas, industrial complexes such as steel mills, petroleum refineries, and automobile assembly plants could emit more pollution from one process as long as a compensating reduction in pollution occurred at another process within the complex, and total emissions from the facility did not increase. Under the new policy, industry could make major modifications or modernize existing facilities in nonattainment areas without, in most cases, a regulatory review, a preconstruction permit, a more than oneto-one reduction in emitted air pollution, and more stringent control technology requirements. The ambient air would not become dirtier, but it also wouldn't become cleaner. And this point sticks in the craw of some environmentalists. The Administration claims, however, that this simple redefinition will lower the barriers to new investments in plant and equipment, especially in the steel industry where modernization is badly needed. Vice President Bush and EPA cite California refineries and auto plants as prime beneficiaries of this change. Substantial modifications to existing refineries now possible under this new rule would allow California to become energy self-sufficient, and also would allow two General Motors plants to retool to build smaller, more competitive cars, they boast. The flaw in their argument is that California since 1977 has incorporated the proposed definition of a source in its "new source review rule." Bill Sessa, communications director of the California Air Resources March 16, 1981 C&EN
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News of the Week Board, tells C&EN that 18 different refineries are undergoing modifications, some completed, that allow them to refine high-sulfur California crude oil whose production has increased substantially since 1978. As for the two GM plants, one is completely retooled and the other is nearing completion, Sessa says. D
Sciences still target of revised budget cuts A first look at the revised budget cuts of President Reagan's economic recovery plan holds few changes from the less-detailed presentation last month. In some instances the cuts are larger, but most programs that survived the initial purge are still intact. At the National Science Foundation, the so-called cross directorate programs would be eliminated if Congress approves the plan. This includes many special, and new, programs at NSF. Lost would be a $75 million college instrumentation program, visiting professorships for
women, and a minority research grant program. Chemistry grant funding in the physical sciences directorate still would increase 19% to $65 million for fiscal 1982. Science research in many other agencies would be cut back from the large increase proposed by Jimmy Carter in January. The Energy Department's basic science fund would get $37 million instead of the $54 million proposed earlier. The National Aeronautics & Space Administration would lose most of its new programs under the plan, although the space shuttle seems largely unaffected. The Agriculture Department, however, could get an increase of $20 million in fiscal 1982 for agricultural research. Even the Department of Defense budget would be trimmed. Although missile systems and personnel would get healthy increases, the basic research programs of the Army and Navy would be cut a total of $34 million for 1982. In other areas, the Environmental Protection Agency's wastewater treatment grants program would be deleted and some funding for imple-
"Pittsburgh" analytical conference sets new records Analytical scientists converged on Atlantic City last week for the 32nd Pittsburgh Conference on Analytical Chemistry & Applied Spectroscopy. As usual, the affair set new records. Almost 920 papers were presented at technical sessions, a 12% increase from last year. At the equipment exposition, some 498 companies (9% more than in 1980) occupied 1199 booth spaces (a 14% increase), demonstrating the latest in analytical instruments, related equipment, and supplies. As of midweek, registrations were running 10% ahead of last year, when a total of 16,032 attended. In fact, the show is outgrowing even the huge Atlantic City convention hall. Although the show is tentatively scheduled to be held there again next year, conference officials warn that the city may lose the lucrative meeting if it can't furnish about 10% more space for exhibits, seminars, and technical sessions. 8
C&EN March 16, 1981
mentation of superfund cleanup activities would be lost. The Consumer Product Safety Commission would lose one third of its funds, cut to about $33 million. The Occupational Safety & Health Administration's funding would be cut $15 million, but that agency still would be getting a small increase over fiscal 1981. D
Aspirin, other drugs linked to runny noses Taking aspirin may make your nose run, say researchers at the National Institutes of Health. James H. Shelhamer, a senior research fellow at the National Institute of Allergy & Infectious Diseases, Bethesda, Md., told the annual meeting of the American Academy of Allergy in San Francisco of an extremely potent inducer of mucus secretion in human cells in culture. The compound is hydroxyeicosatetraenoic acid (HETE). It is a metabolic product of arachidonic acid, which, in turn, is a precursor of many naturally occurring prostaglandins. Aspirin and several other nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs block formation of prostaglandins from arachidonic acid, a transformation that is accomplished by an enzyme called cyclooxygenase. But blocking this pathway, the researchers find, increases the activity of another enzyme system that also can elaborate arachidonic acid—the lipogenase system. And one product of this system is HETE. Several substances have been shown previously to cause cell membranes to secrete mucus, including histamine and acetylcholine, explains Michael Kaliner, director of the research center at the National Institute of Allergy & Infectious Diseases and, along with pediatrician Zvi Marom of Tufts medical school, an investigator on the project. However, H E T E induces secretion at very much lower concentrations than any other agent identified so far; less than 1 mg per ml will cause a response in tissue culture experiments using human lung cells. If aspirin isn't a good choice to treat a runny nose, the researchers can suggest what to take instead. In their experiments three antioxidant drugs that inhibit the lipogenase enzyme system stop mucus release. They plan testing these drugs on patients soon and expect their findings to lead others to do similar studies on patients. D
