GROWTH RATES ARE SLOWING DOWN IN THE CHLOR-ALKALI INDUSTRY C H L O R I N E Source: Dow Chemical
End Use Pattern and Output:
Total Uses
1 Merchant Market
Chemicals
73.2%
42.5%
73.5%
40.0%
Pulp and paper
15.0
32.0
17.0
38.7
Water treatment
3.9
9.5
3.5
8.8
Other
7.9
16.0
6.0
12.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
4,285
1,700
5,700
2,265
Production (thousands of tons)
CAUSTIC SODA
Source: Dow Chemical
1965
1959
Annual Growth Rates
Total Uses
1 Merchant Market
End Use Pattern and Output: 1959
Annual Growth Rates
Chemicals
1965
Total Uses
Merchant Market
Total Uses
43.0%
26.9%
43.8%
26.0%
Merchant Market
Pulp and paper
9.7
12.1
11.6
15.8
Rayon
9.2
14.6
7.5
11.9
Aluminum
5.4
5.7
7.1
9.2
Textile
5.5
8.8
4.8
7.7
Petroleum
5.0
8.1
5.2
8.5
Soap and detergents
4.6
6.7
4.0
5.8
Cellophane
3.4
5.0
2.8
4.2
Export
5.0
8.2
4.5
7.1
Miscellaneous
9.2
3.9
8.7
3.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
4,675
2,970
6,040
3,770
Production (thousands of tons)
S O D A A S H Source: Dow Chemical
End Use Pattern and Output: 1959
Annual Growth Rates
Total Uses
M A Y 2 9, 1 9 6 1
Total Uses
Merchant Market
34.3%
19.8%
26.0%
16.1%
Glass
38.1
47.6
43.5
49.1
Pulp and paper
7.1
8.4
8.5
9.7
Soap and detergents
5.4
6.5
6.2
7.2
Aluminum
3.8
4.5
4.1
4.7
Water treatment
3.2
3.8
3.2
3.7
Export
2.7
3.2
3.1
3.8
Miscellaneous
5.4
6.2
5.4
5.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
5,611
4,763
6,118
5,290
(thousands of tons)
C&EN
Merchant Market
Chemicals
Production
24
IS65
Chlor-Alkali Growth Pegged at 4.5% Total output of chlorine, caustic soda, soda ash, and hydrochloric acid will be over 19 million tons by 1965 The chlor-alkali industry will have a growth rate of about 4.5% per year over the next five years. Total U.S. output of chlorine, caustic soda, soda ash, and hydrochloric acid will be over 19 million tons in 1965, up from 15.5 million tons in 1959. Chemical manufacturing will account for 47% of chlor-alkali consumption five years hence. This is the chlor-alkali outlook forecast by Leo B. Grant at the New York meeting of the Chemical Market Research Association. Mr. Grant is sales manager of Dow's general chemicals department. Chlorine, traditionally the bright star of the chlor-alkali industry, will show a growth rate of 5% a year over the next few years, Mr. Grant predicts. This is a sizable decline from chlorine's historical growth rate of 1 1 % a year, and the 9.4% growth achieved during the last decade. In 1965, chlorine production should run 5.7 million tons. About 9 5 % , or 5.4 million tons, will be made by electrolysis of brine. This figure is some 200,000 tons greater than present capacity of the country's chlorinecaustic cells, Mr. Grant points out. One reason why chlorine's growth rate is tapering off is that the number of chlorine consuming products with
H Y D R O C H L O R I C A C I D source, DOW chemical
high growth rates is declining. Mr. Grant says that in 1951 products with growth rates over 7% a year made up 17% of total chlorine consumption. By contrast, in 1959 only 10% of chlorine consumption went into items with growth rates over 7% a year. In 1959, the chemical industry used 73.2% of chlorine output, according to Mr. Grant. Pulp and paper took 15.0%, water treatment 3.9%, and other uses 7.9%. Within the chemical segment, production of chlorinated aliphatic hydrocarbons is the principal area of growth. Production of metal chlorides will also increase in importance as an end use. The relative amount of chlorine going into ethylene oxide and glycerol manufacturing, on the other hand, is declining, Mr. Grant says. Caustic soda output will grow about 4.5% a year in the near future, according to Mr. Grant's estimates. This means that 1965 production will be 6.0 million tons, 29% higher than the 4.7 million tons made in 1959. The major growth areas for caustic soda are in the aluminum industry, the paper industry, and petroleum refining. Applications that will decline or show little growth during the next decade include production of ethylene oxide, detergents, and rayon.
Another trend in caustic production is the demise of the lime-soda process. This method accounted for 20% of output in 1951, 7% in 1959, and by 1965 should account for only 2 % . Soda ash output will grow at a modest rate of 1.5% a year, Mr. Grant predicts. By 1965, production will total 6.1 million tons. Natural soda ash will make up almost 18% of total output in 1965, compared with 13% in 1959. The drop in the amount of soda ash used by the chemical industry is due largely to decreased production of caustic soda by the lime-soda route, Mr. Grant points out. Other gloomy facets to the soda ash business include the increased maturity of semichemical pulping and the inroads that caustic soda is making in the aluminum industry. Mr. Grant includes hydrochloric acid in the chlor-alkali industry because its production today is more a function of chlorine usage than demand. By-product sources will make up 80% of the 1.3 million tons of hydrochloric acid that are expected to be produced in 1965. According to Mr. Grant, the established uses for hydrochloric acid will continue to hold the same relative positions in the future as they do now.
End Use Pattern and Output: 1959
Annual Growth Rates Total Uses
52.5%
Chemicals Metals and ores Oil well
1!)65 Total Merchant Uses Market
Merchant Market
53.0%
53.0%
I
12.9 7.6
I
•
47.5 7.4 19.1
Food Other Production
54.5% 14.3 9.1
47.0
1
6.6 15.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
960
418
1,280
525
(thousands of tons)
MAY
29,
1961
C&EN
25
Rubber Producers Face World Competition Growing capacity for synthetic rubber overseas, lower natural rubber prices may cut U.S. exports Two-headed competition of increasing intensity is shaping up in foreign markets of U.S. producers of synthetic rubber. The competition will stem both from fast growing capacity overseas for synthetics and from improvements in producing natural rubber, Goodyear Tire's M. J. Rhoad told the Chemical Market Research Association in New York. The results, he warns, may cut exports of U.S. materials "to a trickle." Mr. Rhoad, manager of the rubber and rubber chemicals department of Goodyear's chemical division, is optimistic about rubber's long-term outlook. He expects world-wide consumption to grow at about 5% a year, climbing from 4.3 million long tons last year to 5.4 million by 1965. At the same time, he sees some significant changes taking place in world markets. The U.S. used more
rubber than all the rest of the world combined for some four decades starting in 1915. In the mid-fifties, however, U.S. use dropped behind that of the balance of the world, probably permanently. About the same time, the world began to use more synthetic than natural rubber. These changes spotlight some important developments, Mr. Rhoad points out. Expanding world demand can be met only with synthetics. As a result, synthetic capacity, long centered in the U.S., is being built up rapidly by foreign producers. Increasing world-wide capacity for stereo rubber, moreover, is likely to force producers of natural rubber to lower costs and improve quality. Natural rubber probably will be produced and sold at 25 cents a pound or less in the near future, Mr. Rhoad believes, and may eventually go below 20 cents.
As the Rest of the World's Consumption of Rubber Outdistances That of the U. S., So Does Its Synthetic Rubber Capacity ^
Source: Goodyear Tire & Rubber
26
C&EN
MAY
2 9,
1961
U.S. producers of synthetic rubber have had the edge on their overseas competitors because of long experience in the field, large volumes, substantially depreciated plants, and low cost monomers. But these advantages are fading. Foreign companies can copy and improve on U.S. knowhow. Their volume will grow with local demand. Finally, since petrochemicals have common feedstocks, "the cost of raw materials for synthetic rubbers must eventually tend to equalize around the world," he says. As foreign demand for synthetic rubber grew faster than foreign capacity, U.S. exports ballooned tenfold since 1954 to 300,000 long tons. But as overseas competitors close the gap on U.S. leadership and as U.S. producers face stiffer competition from the rubber tree, exports are likely to drop substantially between now and 1965, Mr. Rhoad predicts.
FPC Balks at Speed-up Plan The Federal Power Commission believes that proceedings before regulatory agencies need to be speeded up. But proposals which would drastically curtail agency reviews of hearing examiners' decisions are not the answer. FPC believes basic changes in the Federal Power and Natural Gas Acts are needed to speed operations, John C. Mason, chief counsel for FPC, said in testimony prepared for the Senate Subcommittee on Administrative Practice and Procedure. The subcommittee has just wound up the first round of hearings on S. 1734, a bill introduced by chairman Sen. John A. Carroll (D.-Colo.). Under S. 1734, the decision of a hearing examiner would be the final agency decision except when the agency heads decide to review. Under present procedures, agencies review all decisions of hearing examiners. S. 1734 would do little, if anything, to cut delays, Mr. Mason says. Most regulatory agencies, such as FPC, have statutory provisions for rehearing before the agency, as well as provisions for review of agency orders before the courts. In many cases, Mr. Mason says, if the agency under S. 1734 refuses to review an examiner's decision, the party involved will nevertheless file an application for rehearing. The agency must consider this request without regard for any limitations imposed by S. 1734.
