FEATURE
Megacities Sweet Dreams or Environmental Nightmares? Absent external financing mechanisms, megacity problems in developing nations may be insurmountable. WALTER R. LYNN
t is hard for us as scientists and engineers to accept that some problems have no solutions to which we can meaningfully contribute. But difficult to accept or not, the problems of megacities as they now exist within many economically disadvantaged nations are insoluble within the limits of our technical capabilities. True, the techniques, methodologies, and underlying scientific knowledge that we helped to develop are within anyone's grasp to use in mitigating the technical challenges presented by the megacity phenomenon. And, also true, within the practical realities of megacities, some minimalist technologies can be readily implemented. But "fixing" these urban complexes will require much of the same robust and expensive methodologies currently used in urban centers of the developed world. To accomplish that requires sizeable capital investments. Therein lies the problem, so far insoluble in its nature.
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The recently invented word, "megacity," calls attention to extraordinarily large metropolitan urban areas—those with 10 million or more inhabitants—which have characteristically experienced great surges in population (see figure on next page). The number of cities that can claim this distinction has climbed from 5 in 1975 to 14 in 1995 and is expected to reach 26 cities by 2015; the majority of this increase is expected to occur in less developed regions of the world and at a faster pace. Lagos, Nigeria and Dhaka, Bangladesh are growing 10 times faster than New York, N.Y. and Los Angeles, Calif, (i). Against this enormous surge in urban population growth, political will, socioeconomic interventions, regional planning, and other essential elements of urban maintenance and growth must be marshalled by less developed countries, or all dreams of prosperity and an enhanced quality of life that people seek in megacities will © 1999 American Chemical Society
devolve—and already has in some instances—into die environmental nightmares that everyone seeks to avoid. Drivers of growth It was not too long ago that the great cities of the world were proud and boastful of their population growth. Throughout antiquity and modern times, cities have been a magnet for rich and poor alike, a place where cultural and economic opportunities abound, and where available services ensure for many an enhanced quality of life. But it is also true tiiat in earlier times, before rudimentary services such as water supply, sewerage, public health, and medical assistance systems became established and made generally available, many of these same great cities were the site, and often the source, of great pandemics and human suffering. As evidenced in the growth of suburbia, the great cities have lost some of their appeal to people in the developed world—transportation and communication systems permit individuals to reap many of the benefits of major metropolitan areas without actually having to live there except by choice. Although many affluent suburbanites have abandoned urban areas, city populations continue to grow, due largely to the influx of many poor, unskilled, and uneducated individuals who still view cities as a base upon which to build their lives. According to a recent United Nations report (i), socioeconomic, political, and demographic forces in the developing countries are driving the urbanization and dangerous population growth of cities. These forces are a result of continued world economic growth since the 1950s: "[The] last half of the century has brought not only enormous change in the scale and nature of economic activity, but also in the size and nature of households, in the scale of distribution of incomes within and between nations, and in the scale and nature of government" (i). Concurrent with these changes, the movement of people from rural to urban environments has been under way for many decades. According to Chauncey Starr, "The fraction of a country's population working the fields decreased from as much as 85% to [about] 3%— the resulting migration has created a strategic dilemma [with] almost 50% of the world's people" now living in urban centers (2). An economic disadvantage In the less developed nations of the world, all this "progress" imposes significant short- and longterm costs, which few urbanizers are willing or able to consider. In these countries, megacities are modern-day renditions of the "tragedy of the commons," and local and national governments are unprepared and ill-equipped to provide the influx of new residents with a viable and critically needed civil works infrastructure. The resulting burgeoning population densities rapidly overwhelm whatever facilities exist and place entire city populations in jeopardy. City residents are faced with the huge (and largely uncontrolled) environmental costs of growing to megacity size, and the external effects of these poorly managed environments affect their neigh-
Megacity growth trends Over the past several decades and for the foreseeable future, the rate of megacity growth in developing nations far outpaces that of megacities in developed countries.
bors near and far. With more than 60 million inhabitants added to these urban centers each year, local and national governments increasingly appear unable to provide the resources needed for even the most basic services. According to a recent World Resources Report, "An estimated 25-50% of urban inhabitants in developing countries live in impoverished slums and squatter settlements, with little or no access to adequate water, sanitation, or refuse collection. In such situations, environmental quality as well as human health and well-being are at risk" (3). Lima, Peru, with an expected population of 9.4 million inhabitants by 2015, is currently plagued with outbreaks of cholera. A recent New York Times article reported that "rural people new to Lima... live in houses without running water and use the outhouses that dot the hillsides above" (4). The absence of any water and sanitation infrastructure imperils these hillside residents to continuing episodes of diarrhea, dehydration, and even death from polluted drinking water and uncooked foods. Looking for answers How successful have megacities in the developed world, such as New York, Los Angeles, London, Tokyo, and Osaka, been in controlling the environmental consequences of "megacity-itis"? The answer depends on whom you ask. Despite contemporary grumbling and complaining about their regulatory environment, without such controls, these great cities would rapidly become uninhabitable. Controls, such as zoning, building codes, and public utility services, came into being long before the EPAs of the world were conceived. In the developed world, local governments have long struggled, more or less successfully, to control the downside consequences of growth and increased population densities, anticipating needs and providing vital municipal services such as water supply, JUNE 1, 1999 / ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY / NEWS • 2 3 9 A
water pollution controls, sanitation systems, and solid waste collection and disposal services. Efforts to moderate and regulate the consequences of population growth are made in the less developed world as well. For example, faced with explosive population growth in an urban corridor along the northern coast of Java, the Indonesian government introduced in 1972 the Spatial Use Management Act (3). According to the World Resources Report (3), it is "one of a suite of laws intended to ensure the provision of adequate public services and to minimize adverse effects on surrounding communities and ecosystems." The act identifies environmentally sensitive areas in which development activities are restricted and improves planning of activities such as industrial development. The successful implementation and enforcement of such measures require financial and human resources and political will—all of which are difficult to obtain in poverty-stricken, less developed countries. Representatives of developing countries have often expressed their concerns at U.N. gatherings about the problems their megacities face, in which they have pleaded for developed countries to provide the financial and technical assistance needed to mitigate them. Habitat II, the Second United Nations Conference on Human Settlements, produced a wide range of recommendations and suggestions for confronting the challenges of human settlements. In this forum, however, although most agreed with the seriousness of the problems, that was primarily the only issue upon which they agreed. The
Secretary-General of the Conference, Wally N'Dow, proposed that "portions of the $800 billion spent yearly on arms should be spent on . . . human security, which will provide water and sanitation." He further proposed that such financing could be achieved by each nation cutting its military budget by 5% (5). Most observers would not deny that the SecretaryGeneral 's proposal is well intended. There is no evidence, however, that it will be implemented any time soon. If political will, socioeconomic interventions, regional planning, and other necessary actions cannot be marshalled by less developed countries, then all the dreams of prosperity and an enhanced quality of life that people seek in megacities will devolve into the environmental nightmares everyone would rather avoid. References (1) World Urbanization Prospects: The 1996 Revision; United Nations: New York, 1998, pp. 23-24. (2) Starr, C. Sustaining the Human Environment: The Next Two Hundred Years. In Technological Trajectories and the Human Environment, National Academy of Sciences: Washington, DC, 1997, pp. 194-195. (3) World Resources Institute. World Resources 1998-99: A Guide to Global Environment, Oxford University Press: New York, 1998, p. 146. (4) Marston, Wendy; In Peru's Shantytown, Cholera Comes by the Bucket, The New York Times, Dec. 8, 1998, p. 9. Walter R. Lynn is professor emeritus of civil & environmental engineering and professor emeritus of science & technology studies at Cornell University in Ithaca, N.Y.
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