INDUSTRY No M a n p o w e r Shortage? If s h o r t a g e o f chemists a n d e n g i n e e r s exists, s a l a ries w o u l d b e h i g h e r , e c o n o m i s t s s a y continue to grow at t h e rate of 3.5% a year. T h e y reason that engineers still earn enough more than the general labor force to justify paying for an • I n a free labor market, a shortage education. exists w h e n the number of workers Using census figures, they find t h a t goes u p slower than the number d e - the n u m b e r of engineers has grown manded at salaries paid i n the recent from 7 0 0 0 in 1870 to over 500,000 in past. 1950 a n d that t h e n u m b e r of chemists • Thus, salaries rise when a shortage has grown from less than 800 to over exists. 75,000 in the same period. Of this in• Engineering salaries have been crease in the n u m b e r of engineers, an dropping steadily over t h e past 2 0 over 80'7< gain occurred between 1940 years when compared to those in other and 1950. fields. • W h y Has D e m a n d Grown? In • All professional incomes have gone considering reasons for the increasing down relative to so-called w a g e earners d e m a n d s for engineers and chemists, during this period, but engineering Blank a n d Stigler conclude that nearly salaries have gone down even further. half of the increased importance of chemists and engineers is traceable to So t h e economists conclude in their the faster growth of industries which book, " T h e Demand and Supply of d e p e n d heavily on the technological Scientific Personnel," published by N a - professions. T o a smaller extent t h e y tional Bureau of Economic Research, credit t h e increase in government exthat up to 1955 at least t h e r e was no penditures for research, which acshortage b u t in fact an increasingly counted for some t w o thirds of t h e inample supply of engineers. Blank a n d crease in research a n d development exStigler d o concede, however, there may penditures between 1940 and 1950. have been temporary shortages of peo- But, t h e y say, if government contracts ple with specific skills o r in certain were a n e t addition t o demand for enparts of t h e country. gineers and chemists, they would b e reWorking under a National Science sponsible for only about a fifth of t h e Foundation grant, Blank and Stigler increase that occurred between 1 9 4 0 studied factors affecting supply and d e - and 1950. m a n d for scientific personnel. While T h e Blank-Stigler study shows that they were able to obtain and analyze roughly four-tenths of t h e increase in statistics on salaries, schooling, and col- ratio of engineers a n d chemists to total lege enrollment, they point o u t t h a t employment, which has gone u p from their study has been handicapped b y 0.46% in 1890 to 0.88% in 1950, is d u e limitations of data o n fringe benefits, to changes in industrial structure. A types of activities of engineers, sources small additional part of t h e increase is of nongraduate engineers, and several due to expansion of government reother aspects of t h e problem. B u t search. But more t h a n half of t h e inworking with available data, they have crease is still to be explained. One poscome u p with several observations, in- sible explanation is that reductions in cluding t h e one on the a m p l e supply relative cost of highly trained personnel of engineers, although they present have led to their substitution for skilled nothing quantitative o n this. or unskilled workers. Another explanaThey do say that since 1870 t h e tion is that changes in t h e technology number of chemists and engineers h a s of production have increased t h e relagrown 17 times as fast as t h e labor tive d e m a n d for highly trained personforce as a whole. For this reason, they nel. Blank a n d Stigler conclude that point out, while the demand for engi- one or both of these presumably acneers has grown rapidly, t h e supply has count for most of t h e u p w a r d drift in demand. grown even more rapidly. Blank a n d Without attempting to predict fuStigler do hold out hope for t h e supply of engineers to continue to increase. ture demand, Blank a n d Stigler do preOf this supply, T h e y say their number will probably dict future supply. JL w o
ECONOMISTS,
David
M.
Blank
and George J. Stigler, tossed these posers at t h e scientific world last week:
about half will be college graduates with engineering degrees, about a tenth will b e graduates of other college d e partments, and the rest will b e without a complete college education. Depending on the method of projection used, Blank and Stigler come u p with these figures for supply of engineering graduates: about 35,000 t o 40,000 in 1960, from 50,000 to 60,000 in 1965, a n d from 6 0 , 0 0 0 to 90,000 in 1970. Since they s e e no reason to expect t h e proportion of nongraduates to diminish rapidly in the near future, they expect their n u m b e r entering t h e field to reach 15,000 t o 20,000 p e r year around 1960 and 30,000 or more around 1970.
AK-33X Boosts Octanes New gasoline additive can be twice as effective as tetraethyllead in boosting octane ratings A N O T H E R STEP has b e e n taken in d e -
veloping chemical additives t o improve the octane ratings of gasolines. Ethyl Corp. has a new antiknock compound that, in full-scale aircraft engine tests, has permitted power increases of up to 20% (C&EN, July 8, page 7 ) . The new antiknock agent is an organic manganese compound tentatively called AK-33X. THis n e w material, methyl cyclopentadienyl manganese tricarbonyl, is viewed primarily as a supplement to tetraethyllead, n o t as a replacement. Used together w i t h T E L , it permits higher antiknock values than can b e obtained w i t h T E L alone. Since t h e new compound is expected to be more expensive than T E L , it will probably not b e used i n gasolines as t h e sole antiknock agent. Most of the large scale testing of AK-33X h a s been done a t CurtissWright on its 18-eylinder T u r b o Comp o u n d engine. "Power increases made possible b y Ethyl's newly announced aviation gasoline additive," says Roy T. Hurley, president of Curtiss-Wright, "will enable us to achieve n e w heights in performance." Significantly greater power will b e o b t a i n a b l e without knock. Improved, more efficient engines, he says, will enable aircraft to cruise faster, carry larger payloads, and fly at higher altitudes, using less fuel because of the n e w additive. For t h e present, the biggest potential for AK-33X a p p e a r s to b e in aviation gasolines used in piston-type aircraft. Preliminary studies indicate that it m a y also b e effective in automobile engines. A large n u m b e r of laboratory samples have already been sent out to petroleum companies for testing in automotive and aviation fuels. AK-33X is still ira t h e research a n d JULY
15,
I 957 C &EN
19
