of present oil prices over the next 30 years, to $40 per bbl. Another doubling beyond that or an abrupt doubling would cause trouble. Conservation, fossil fuels, and light-water nuclear reactors can see the U.S. through quite a few decades, which, Hitch says, is about as far ahead as it is fruitful to plan. The problem is to get to the year 2000 or 2010 or maybe even 2025. A reduction in the availability of energy or an increase in its real cost, Hitch says, damages the economy and reduces income. But though some loss is inevitable, the amount of the loss is less than might be suspected. For example, the adverse effect on gross national product is much less than proportional to the reduction in energy availability. The cost of supplying primary energy is small in relation to the gross national product; thus a doubling in the real cost of supplying energy, according to Hitch, reduces GNP only 7%. Although the economy can adapt to scarcer and more costly energy in the long run, Hitch says, it cannot do so in the short run. But no one really has a very good idea of how long the long run is. No one, Hitch says, really knows what the implications of all these factors may be, say, 30 years hence. However, Hitch believes that if energy prices double in the next 30 years, demand for energy probably will be closer to 100 quadrillion Btu (quads) than to 200 quads, as has been predicted, and that would make the long-term energy problem manageable. Current consumption is about 75 quads. Hitch maintains, however, that this response will come about only if the true costs and scarcity of energy are reflected in prices. Consumers of energy, he says, will find ways to conserve if, and only if, they get the right signals through prices. D
Second regulatory calendar published The federal government's Regulatory Council has just published the second of what will be a semiannual series of regulatory calendars. The calendars are designed to let businesses, the public at large, and the regulators themselves know what the federal government will be doing during the next 12 months. They also will help the government to identify overlaps or inconsistencies among the regulations proposed. The first calendar appears to have been a success. As Charles L. Schultze, a council member and 8
C&ENDec. 3, 1979
Schultze: likes economic aspects
chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, puts it, "From hindsight it's amazing it took so long to develop a regulatory calendar; if it didn't exist it would have to be invented." Schultze is particularly pleased that the regulatory calendar has helped focus agency attention on economic aspects of regulations. Such economic information was noticeably lacking in the first calendar, with only one third of the entries
containing dollar figures of any kind. However, 80% of the entries in the new calendar have some information on the economic impact of proposed regulations. Like all things governmental, the calendar is growing in size, from 130 to 249 pages. The first calendar, published last February, carried summaries of 109 regulations under development in 20 departments and agencies. The new calendar, published in the Nov. 28 Federal Register, contains 129 entries submitted by 25 agencies, 13 of which directly affect the chemical industry. Each entry contains a brief summary of the proposed regulations and the name of the agency official responsible for its development. It also lists the proposal's objectives, sets forth alternatives under consideration for meeting that objective, sectors of the economy likely to be affected by the proposal, and its economic implications. New features in the second calendar include an index of the sectors of the economy affected by each calendar entry, an update on the status of regulatory activities listed in the first calendar but not in the new one, publication schedule for the semiannual regulatory agendas of the council's 36 member agencies, and a guide detailing how the public can participate in the regulatory process. D
Production-scale gas chromatography A 12-year-old promise to scale up gas chromatography for production-scale use has been realized by Elf Aquitaine Development, based in Paris, in conjunction with the SRTI/Thomson group in France. The new unit, which was installed at an SCM organic chemical plant in Jacksonville, Fla., "is now on stream and functioning according to expectations," announced SCM technology vice president Wilmer Stoufer at a press briefing held jointly with representatives of Elf Aquitaine. SCM is using the new high-resolution GC facility to "get us materials that would have been unavailable," Wilmer says. "A few years ago we thought we'd reached the limit of purification on a commercial scale with conventional methods." The Elf Aquitaine unit can handle about 100 metric tons of purified products per year, based on nearly continuous use. This system's highvolume capacity depends in large part on its 400-mm-diameter column. Four "breakthroughs" made it possible to go from inches to feet in column diameter, says Reynald Bonmati, the major coordinator of Elf
Aquitaine's development efforts. Most important was the development of a proprietary packing for the column, which Bonmati calls "the key" to the system's success. Other developments include an automatic, time-based programer, an output optimization procedure, and vacuum-based operations. The system is designed for "small-volume, high-value chemicals." SCM, for example, is purifying flavor and perfume components with this system. And Bonmati expects the setup to prove useful in purifying materials for pharmaceutical, photographic, and electronic applications. The high cost of about $700,000 as well as a mandatory royalty arrangement with Elf Aquitaine, based on sale of materials processed through the system, will ensure that users adhere to that design formula. "Our know-how allows us to scale up directly from the 40-mm to 400-mm system," Bonmati says. And the company is eager to bring that know-how into widespread industrial use where large-scale GC may provide high-yield purification capacity for fine chemicals. D
