Regulations
R. A. Libby The Procter & Gamble Co. Miami Valley Laboratories Cincinnati, Ohio 45247
Analytical Chemists: PhD Supply and Regulatory Demand Regulations confronting the academic, industrial, and governmental employers of chemists have grown to encompass most phases of the research, development, and testing typically performed by analytical chemists. Regulations are in place now, or pending, on how to take and record data, what physical and chemical tests must be performed on a chemical to ensure human and environmental safety, and what analyses are required to determine the environmental fate of a chemical. T h e Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970 has "fondly been referred to as the Analytical Chemist's Employment Act of 1970" ( i ) . Regulatory-related costs have reached a percentage of the G N P that is nearly double t h a t for the combined R&D expenditures by the federal government and U.S. industry (2). Most proposals from the regulatory agencies indicate a growing demand
for analytical chemists throughout the 1980s. Even with uniform multiagency regulations and more cost-effective implementation, the need for more specific and sensitive analytical data to set or enforce regulations will increase the demand for competent, professional analytical chemists. While it is difficult to quantitatively document the number of analytical chemists employed to meet existing regulations, the regulatory proposals coming out of EPA under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), for example, clearly indicate the demand for analytical chemists involved in regulatory analyses will grow. Further, it is apparent t h a t today's and tomorrow's analytical chemists face an increasing challenge to participate by providing scientific input to proposed regulations and by handling final regulations in a technically sound and cost-effective manner. Existing supply data for Ph.D. analytical chemists indicate continuation
Table I. Production of Ph.D. Analytical Chemists Year
Total No. of Ph.D. Chemists
1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79
1757 1941 2208 (Peak) 2160 1971 1882 1828 1824 1623 1571 1525 1520
Analytical Ph.D.s < % of Total)
129(7.3%) 141 (8.0%) 158(7.2%) 173(8.0%) 147(7.5%) 128(6.8%) 145(7.9%) 140(7.7%) 157(9.3%) 157 (10.0%) 174(11.1%) 174(11.4%)
Source: HEW National Center for Educational Statistics and The National Research Council
0003-2700/80/A351-1291S01.00/0 © 1980 American Chemical Society
of a tight supply/demand situation. T h e data that will be presented come from the public domain, specifically HEW, NRC and ACS, and from a survey conducted at 26 of the schools that train Ph.D. analytical chemists. T h e purpose of this article is to forecast the demand/supply situation for analytical chemists through the 1980s, and to report various suggestions from analytical professors responding to a Procter & Gamble survey for increasing the supply of chemistry students entering graduate school, with a focus on analytical majors. We believe t h a t the long-term supply/demand ratio depends on the ability of educators and employers to accurately forecast and communicate information on supply and demand to undergraduate students in chemistry. Communicating the projected demand now is particularly important since a lag time of five years or more is typical between a change in demand for various kinds of Ph.D. chemists and the corresponding change in the graduate student population. T h e lag time for changing undergraduate students' career choices can be even longer. From Table I, we see that Ph.D. supply has fallen from the 1970 peak and is probably declining with the decline in chemistry enrollment. For 1979-80, 22% of the Ph.D. entering class of 880 students (26 schools responding) indicated analytical as a preference, and, although we have to allow for some adjustment in this number over their graduate careers, it's directionally encouraging and suggests t h a t five years from now the percentage of students getting analytical Ph.D.s may increase, although the absolute supply might not increase. Twenty-six graduate schools expect to graduate about 155 new Ph.D. analytical chemists over the next 12
ANALYTICAL CHEMISTRY, VOL. 52, NO. 12, OCTOBER 1980 · 1291 A
Table II. 10-Year Change Projections
its your move to.
Decrease Status Quo Uncertain Doubtful Decrease Probable Decrease Will Increase
1 7 2 2 8 6
Source: Procter & Gamble Survey, November 1979
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months. When we add to this new Ph.D.s from all graduate schools training analytical chemists, we are optimistic that next year's supply (through November 1980) will exceed this year's. Over the next 10 years, the opinions on the supply of Ph.D. ana l y t i c a l vary as shown in Table II. One department predicts a decline, seven see no change, two can't tell yet, two are doubtful of any increase, eight say it probably will increase, and six predict a definite increase. Certainly, forecasting over the next 10 years in volves some risk, but there's no firm evidence to say that we will have an improved supply ready for the regula tory burden expected in the last half of the decade. Table III reports on ways t o posi tively influence the supply for the 1980s, listed in decreasing order of fre quency suggested. T h e most prevalent suggestion was for industries to increase their fellow ship support for analytical graduate students, including some grant money to supplement the support of selected analytical professors, especially the younger ones. One respondent sug gested t h a t industry supply more fel lowship money, increase the stipend, and add a pay-back penalty if an aca demic job isn't taken. Following close ly was the need to do a better "public relations" job on the societal value and need for all kinds of chemists in general and analytical chemists in par ticular. Clearly we need to get more students interested in chemistry. In cluded in this category were sugges tions on upgrading the undergraduate curricula to include more courses in modern instrumentation; using perti nent lab experiments and relevant samples; more undergraduate awards to attract and reward chemistry stu dents; as well as the general idea of upgrading the chemist's image and value in society. T h e third most popu lar suggestion was higher salaries for university professors to reduce the disparity between industrial and aca demic salaries that prevents some new Ph.D.s from taking college and univer sity positions to train the next genera tion. No specific ways to increase uni versity salaries were given, other than a few respondents' viewing this as a
Table III. Suggestions to Improve the Supply of Analytical Chemists • Increase industrial support of fellowships designated for analytical graduate students and faculty • Improve the image of chemists • Increase university salaries • Increase government funding of research in analytical chemistry • Improve understanding/collaboration between university and industrial analytical chemists • Increase summer employment for analytical students • Increase the image of analytical chemistry in university departments and start up an alytical divisions in those departments that don't have them • Improve the quality of analytical research • Provide more funds to recruit analytical graduate students
problem resting on the shoulders of their state legislatures. Theoretically, at least, if we can upgrade the public image of chemists in society, we stand a chance of influencing those with control over university salaries. T h e fourth most popular suggestion was to get more government research funds allocated for research in analyti cal chemistry. Maybe the critical im portance of analytical chemists in set ting and enforcing regulations will lead to the recognition t h a t better an alytical methods are needed for more effective regulations and t h a t funda mental research in analysis will pro vide more of the societal benefits t h a t research in " p u r e r " forms of chemistry has made possible. T h e fifth item suggests an improved understanding between industrial and academic chemists, taking the form of collaborative research efforts, more debate on what the current issues are and how to approach them, more in dustrial consulting for professors, and some discussion of what kinds of training industry looks for in graduate students. On this latter item, the need for one analytical specialty vs. another (e.g., chromatography vs. atomic spec trometry) varies across industry and changes with time, but personal skills in communication, problem solving, project planning, and broad technical competence seem to be universal and independent of time. T h e data don't offer any more elaboration on this idea. T h e sixth most common suggestion is for more undergraduate and gradu ate student summer job employment in industry. Summer jobs are most ef fective for undergraduates, graduating seniors, and maybe some first-year graduate students, but after that, the disruptive effect that it has on their research takes away most of the ad vantage. This suggestion will probably increase the number of chemistry stu dents opting for analytical, and addi tionally, may bring more undergrade into chemistry.
T h e seventh item is really self-ex planatory and most of the earlier sug gestions serve to address this sugges tion, either generally or specifically. Only one respondent advocated im proving the quality of analytical re search, and my interpretation of this response is t h a t "success breeds suc cess." T h e last item proposes more funds be made available to use in recruiting analytical graduate students, without suggesting whether the funds come from the d e p a r t m e n t or an outside source.
T h e forecast for the second half of the decade from Table II is less cer tain and seems to be dependent on the static or declining enrollment in chemistry. T h e suggestions on im proving the supply are, individually, challenges to each of us to develop a workable plan. T h e pressure on indus try's funds for more support are very similar to those on university salaries. One thing is reasonably certain and it doesn't cost anything—we have to de liver a clear message to undergradu ates t h a t jobs will be available in ana lytical chemistry. Unless we are successful in increas ing t h e supply of analytical chemists, the professional resources to develop new products and innovations will di minish. This will occur because indus try will be forced to use this valuable resource to meet growing regulatory needs rather than as part of the re search effort needed to improve our nation's productivity. References
(1) Hemingway, R. E., Anal. Chem., 52, 876A (1980). (2) Behrens, E. L., Anal. Chem., 52, 776 A (1980). Presented at Second Chemical Congress of the North American Continent, Las Vegas, Nev., Aug. 25, 1980.
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