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T
he nations of the world are meeting this month in Kyoto, Japan, to discuss restrictions on future emissions of carbon dioxide to mitigate the expected rise of global temperature caused by C0 2 and other greenhouse gases. No doubt there will be great pressure on the United States to commit to an aggressive policy to reduce its emissions, given that this country has the highest per capita C0 2 emission rate of all developed countries. It is ironic that the Kyoto summit meeting comes shortly after the release of new data showing that U.S. carbon emissions continue to grow and that growth accelerated in 1996. According to the new analysis by the U.S. Department of Energy, C0 2 emissions were up 3.5% in 1996 compared with a 2.4% increase in energy consumption. At this rate, the country clearly will not meet the goal of reducing its greenhouse emissions to 1990 levels by 2000. The report suggests, in fact, that U.S. emissions will be 13%—more than 200 million metric tons of C02—above this target. On page 574A of this issue, Granger Morgan and Hadi Dowlatabadi of Carnegie Mellon University analyze the C0 2 emission issue and make a strong case that new technology is the only way to achieve significant reductions. Moreover, they contend that market-driven R&D will not be sufficient, and they call for a policy based on incentives such as an emission tax to fund needed research. They also call for a new nonprofit organization to administer the collected funds to support research at universities and nonprofit laboratories. Some would argue that this research is most likely to be productive if private industry is involved as an active partner. In any case, it will most likely be at least a decade before we can expect research to be implemented. Some climate change will probably occur if current climate models are accurate. Morgan and Dowlatabadi make two critical assumptions: that these models are indeed accurate and that technology will be able to provide the solution to the greenhouse gas problem. The first assumption is supported by the most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Sept. 29, 1997). As for technology, I suspect that most ES&Treaders will agree with the latter assumption, provided population growth on the planet can be brought under control. The possible change in climate caused by the generation of energy for an affluent, energy-consuming global community is not the only problem that faces humanity in the decades ahead; indeed, it may not be the most important one. As we seek alternatives to carbon energy sources, as we produce more goods with their corresponding wastes, as human movement around the planet becomes more common, and as we continue to overload the natural systems that govern life on this planet, clearly we are playing with fire. Technology will be part of the solution to this complex set of problems, but eventually we must have a much more comprehensive, systematic, informed approach to management of our civilization if we wish to avoid the next generation of environmental surprises that most surely awaits us
0013-936X/97/0931-543A$14.00/0 © 1997 American Chemical Society
William H. Glaze, Editor (
[email protected])
VOL. 31, NO. 12, 1997 / ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY / NEWS • 5 4 3 A
