Comment pubs.acs.org/est
Good News for Peak Emissions For the first time, I see a glimmer of hope in these emission trends, a path forward to mitigate climate change starting with the developed countries most responsible for the problem. Europe is on the road to meet their goal of a 20% reduction by 2020, and it is not out of the realm of possibility for the U.S. either. Such progress must continue and then spread rapidly to the developing world in a way that they can also improve quality of life for their people. How can we accomplish that? By embracing hyper-energy efficiency, big wind, small solar, and perhaps natural gas as a bridging fuel, we might be able to do it. But we need good government to send a strong signal into the market place that the end of the fossil fuel age is near, making those fuels more expensive while renewable sources of energy become ubiquitous and much cheaper through economies of scale. That is the path to peak global emissions in the next 10 years and to commence their rapid decline thereafter. Whether that will be soon enough to avert serious climate interference remains to be seen.
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id you know that U.S. and E.U. greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) declined by 6.9% and 11.3% in 2011 compared to a baseline year of 2005? It is trueemissions are trending down in these key developed countriesthey seem to have reached a peak around 2004 (E.U.) and 2007 (U.S.). The decline is not solely due to the recession of 2008−2009 or poor economic performance, rather there is some genuinely good news emerging from an otherwise dismal outlook on climate change. In the U.S., vehicle emissions from cars and trucks are decreasing by 3−4% each year. This is due to impressive efforts by automakers and the Obama Administration who agreed to place new rules on emissions, both in terms of fuel efficiency and GHGs. By 2025, cars and light trucks must achieve 54.5 miles per gallon (mpg) and emit less than 163 g/mile of carbon dioxide. Good government can play a crucial role in responding to climate change. The 2007 Supreme Court decision provided the authority for EPA to regulate greenhouse gases as pollutants under the Clean Air Act. EPA estimates that 4 billion barrels of oil and 2 billion metric tons of GHG emissions will be saved over the lifetimes of vehicles sold between 2017 and 2025. Higher prices will add about $2,000 per unit, but drivers will save on the average $5,200−$6,600 in fuel costs. Energy efficiency pays. But energy efficiency is not the only reason that GHG emissions are down in the transportation sector. Believe it or not, Americans are driving less. Telecommuting is starting to make a difference, and Internet shopping instead of driving by car plays a role, too. The “local food” movement and steady improvements in supply chain radius helps alsoeverybody from Big Box stores to local farmers’ markets are contributing. Behavioral changes could prove revolutionary. Young people are seeking neighborhoods where they can walk to work, shop, and recreate closer to home. Transportation is not the only sector evolving. Emissions from coal-fired power plants are also declining, mainly due to switching to natural gas or to wind power. More than 150 coalfired power plants have been closed in the U.S. in recent years (from 522 plants to 370 plants). Granted, these were the oldest, smallest, and least efficient coal plants, but is not that precisely what is needed? New rules by EPA on stationary sources have created the initial incentives for control of coal power, and state governments and industry also deserve credit for the economic transformation. I do not worry about peak oil whatsoever. We have plenty of oil, gas, and coal to last for hundreds of years, and we are not running out. But we are running out of room in the atmosphere to store our exhaust. I do not know if recent declines in GHG emissions are a flash in the pan or the start of something strong and lasting. After all, we need an 80% decline in global GHG emissions by 2050 just to level-off carbon dioxide in the atmosphere around 450 ppmand that, hopefully, would prevent global warming of more than 2 °C. Unbeknownst to many, we actually do have a global energy policy. It is called “Burn whatever is cheapest”. But we can do better than that. © 2013 American Chemical Society
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Jerald L. Schnoor, Editor-in-Chief AUTHOR INFORMATION
Corresponding Author
[email protected]. Notes
Views expressed in this editorial are those of the author and not necessarily the views of the ACS. The authors declare no competing financial interest.
Published: November 8, 2013 13209
dx.doi.org/10.1021/es404761f | Environ. Sci. Technol. 2013, 47, 13209−13209
