course of technology in the future, he says. Basically, there are three types of technological forecasting—exploratory, normative, and intuitive. Exploratory forecasting starts with current tech nology and then makes mathematical extrapolations based on historical pat terns. Normative forecasting starts with future needs or goals, then works backward to identify the technology required to fill these needs. Intuitive forecasting is a speculative projection into the future and is not generally based on quantitative inputs. Science fiction falls into this category, Mr. Kovac points out. Technological forecasting tech niques applied to the tire industry point to a variety of tire developments, Mr. Kovac says, including a 100,000mile tire before the year 2000, and passenger tires with an aspect ratio (cross-section height to cross-section width) of 0.4 by 1975. Present as pect ratio is typically 0.7. Intuitive forecasting is, by its na ture, pretty much unstructured. However, one of the more sophisti cated methods of intuitive forecasting is the Delphi probe, which is a syste matic solicitation of expert opinion. Mr. Kovac has conducted a Delphi probe in the rubber industry in which various experts listed the most impor tant events they anticipate before 2000. After compiling this list, Mr. Kovac then asked the experts which year these events would have at least a 50-50 probability of realization. Some of the results: a new fiber for tires in 1976, a new elastomer (not commercially made today) for treads in 1977, elimination of spare tires on new cars in 1980, completely auto mated tire building in 1984, filler to replace carbon black in 1985, injectionmolded passenger tires in 1987, and a 300 to 500 mile-per-hour mass trans portation system on tires by 1992.
plosion and fire last fall. New large ethylene plants of Gulf Oil at Port Arthur, Tex., and of Shell Chemical at Deer Park, Tex., are six or more months behind their original construc tion schedules and not yet producing. At press time, Enjay officials were still trying to determine the full extent of the damage. But based on prelimi nary indications, M. B. Carmichael, manager of the Baton Rouge facility, said that the cost of repairs should be relatively minor compared to the over all cost of the ethylene unit. The fire began during the evening of April 29, just a few days after En jay disclosed plans to add 70% capac ity to the Baton Rouge unit. It was under control in five hours and allowed to burn out the next day. Besides the ethylene purification section, the fire burned two tanks containing ethanol. Even though physical damage may prove to be relatively light, the unit will be down an undetermined time, several months probably. No serious interruptions to Enjay ethylene cus tomers in the area will result, Mr. Car michael emphasizes. Enjay has large (although of undisclosed size) ethyl ene storage in salt domes southeast of Baton Rouge. If the unit is down for as long as six months, some impact on supplies of
ETHYLENE:
Slowing the Supply Mishaps and construction delays con tinue to dog ethylene producers and cast shadows over the near-term sup ply picture. A fire of as yet undeter mined origin swept through the purifi cation section of one of two ethylene units at Enjay Chemicars giant Baton Rouge ethylene works 12 days ago knocking out nearly half (some 500 million pounds per year) of total inplace capacity. The Enjay incident is the latest in a series that has kept ethylene produc ers on the go to fill demands. Union Carbide is just now getting its 1.2 bil lion pound-a-year plant at Texas City, Tex., up to full capacity after an ex
Linder will head ΝΑΕ The National Academy of Engineering has its first full-time president. Cla rence H. Linder has been elected to the post, where he will serve a term of one year, succeeding Dr. Eric A. Walker, president of Pennsylvania State University. Mr. Linder, an electrical engineer, is a retired vice president and group executive of General Electric Company.
ethylene in the area along the Missis sippi River south of Baton Rouge could be felt. At 500 million pounds a year, the Enjay unit accounts for an eighth or possibly more of the capac ity in the area. Cooperation to inter change ethylene among producers and users and the available inventories will easily avoid a supply crisis in the area for six months, says one Gulf Coast consultant on ethylene and its deriva tives.
MANAGEMENT:
Plastics R&D vs. Profit Payout from research and develop ment in plastics lies somewhere be tween the Isle of Serendip and Wall Street. Pinpointing the location is an exacting chore confronting the plas tics industry, and it was a subject the Society of Plastics Engineers didn't hesitate to broach at their 28th annual conference in New York last week. D u Pont's Russel B. Akin points out that the plastics industry is now mature enough to analyze the kind of R&D effort that enabled its 12%-ayear growth for the past decade. To ensure profitability, management of R&D must improve, since competition is increasing and the life cycle of new developments is decreasing. Mr. Akin adds that before plastics can attract the capital and management necessary for its projected tripling in production in the next decade, R&D management must reward the bright and energetic young people who will apply business principles to the whole gamut of R&D from research to market evaluation. R&D budgets are in for careful scru tiny in board rooms and government agencies this year. R&D efficiency, as measured by the American Manage ment Association, leaves something to be desired, Mr. Akin observes. The association estimates that U.S. compa nies get identifiable returns from only 45% of dollars invested in R&D. For a company that realizes 10% earnings on sales, Mr. Akin notes, it is neces sary for the company to sell $550,000 worth of goods to reclaim the $55,000 lost on every $100,000 spent on R&D. Arthur J. Warner of DeBell & Rich ardson, Inc., Hazardville, Conn., points out that in the early days of the growth of the plastics industry it was the materials producers themselves that provided the major proportion of the funds needed for R&D. Their suc cess expanded the material producers' ranks from the original classical chem ical companies to include petrochemi cal companies, petroleum and oil pro ducers, and finally other groups who thought that profitability would be higher in the plastics materials area than in their own. MAY 11, 1970 C&EN 25
