News of the Week
Recovery still leaves problems for industry Despite a slew of good news this w i n t e r on a business recovery, chemical company executives have not budged on their general view that the 1980s have severe underlying problems requiring some basic changes in operations. Several speakers reiterated these concerns at the American Institute of Chemical Engineers' spring meeting in Houston last week. The long-term view remains one of low growth and increased international competition leading to a shakeout in operations. Any help from lower oil prices may end as early as 1984. At the meeting, James B. Henderson, president of Shell Chemical, pointed to slowing growth in all industrialized countries, more global competition spurred by low-cost feedstocks of new producers of chemicals, and increasing raw materials costs and lower value added in making chemicals. These factors are behind dismal forecasts for capacity utilization rates for the next few years. The worldwide petrochemical industry is now in transition, Henderson adds. Rationalization is under way. Besides shutdowns, other initiatives include better planning, increased feedstock flexibility, more energy-efficient processes, increased productivity, and improved technology. In covering technical developments, Henderson calls advanced catalysis research one of the most promising opportunities. This research offers potential for more efficient use of both fuel and feedstocks, he says, citing Shell's own ethylene oxide catalyst. Still needed are catalysts that work at or close to ambient conditions and specialized catalysts to increase yields. More efficient use of fuels and feedstocks will be needed if predictions by John J. McKetta, professor of chemical engineering at the University of Texas, Austin, prove out. He expects the decline in crude oil prices could be over by the end of 1983, if world economies recover as now expected. 6
April 4, 1983 C&EN
McKetta estimates that the recession reduced U.S. crude oil demand the equivalent of 5.5 million barrels per day, and the noncommunist world demand another 10 million bbl per day equivalent. Economic recovery causing energy use to reverse this decline could bring demand to just over the producers' ability to supply energy. Then crude oil prices could rise to between $40 and $45 per bbl in 1985-86. D
NMR instrument images parts of the body Rowland W. Redington, head of nuclear magnetic resonance research at General Electric Research & Development Center, Schenectady, N.Y., examines a brain scan produced by GE's experimental NMR instrument. The heart of the instrument is an extremely powerful superconducting magnet that can produce a magnetic flux density of 1.5 tesla. Such an instrument can be used for proton imaging of the head or torso of a person, as shown here. It also has the necessary field strength to do in vivo NMR spectroscopy of nuclei such as carbon-13 and phosphorus-31. "Conventional wisdom held that proton imaging could not be done at the very high field strengths required for chemical analyses," says Roland W. Schmitt, GE senior vice president for R&D. 'The exceptionally good images of the head we have produced operating at 15,000 gauss completely dispel this myth. In fact, their high quality suggests that this may even be the preferred approach."
Chemists not to be in low supply, study says Personnel shortages may crop up in a few science and engineering employment categories by 1987, a National Science Foundation assessment finds, but chemists and chemical engineers won't be among them. NSF made this assessment to determine whether there will be an adequate supply of science, engineering, and technician personnel for meeting defense and nondefense needs between 1982 and 1987. For its assessment, NSF evaluated combinations of four scenarios. Two scenarios projected high and low levels of macroeconomic activity— one assuming a vigorous economic recovery in 1983 and 1984 with subsequent moderation, providing a gross national product growth rate of 4.3%; the other assuming a continuation of the economic performance of the early 1980s through 1984 with subsequent modest recovery, providing a GNP growth rate of 1.6%. The other two scenarios projected defense spending. One assumed implementation of the Administration's five-year defense plan as proposed for the period beginning in fiscal 1983—an annual growth rate of about 8%. The other assumed growth during the same period constrained to about 3%. Under the combinations of economic and defense activity repres e n t i n g the highest and lowest extremes, only computer specialists, among scientists, are projected to be in probable short supply. In other words, no matter what the scenario, the supply of computer personnel would be 15 to 20% below demand. Among engineers, the assessment projects a shortage of aeronautical / astronautical engineers under both the lowest and highest combinations. Under the combination of highest activity, the study projects a potential shortage of electrical /electronic engineers. Also under this combination, a shortage of industrial engineers might be possible because the model used for projecting staffing requirements fails to capture a recent acceleration of growth in such jobs. D
