I/EC SPECIAL FEATURE very substantially in the near future as octanes increase, but it will not have m u c h effect on petrochemical raw materials avails. M a n y variations of this process are currently u n d e r development, and commercialization of the rz-pentane isomerization alone is currently u n d e r way. T h e yields shown represent a combined pentane-hexane fraction which is isomerized. However, in actual practice these fractions will probably be processed separately. It is probable t h a t the normal paraffin will be concentrated and recycled to the isomerization operation to increase octane and yield. Hydrogénation in refining operations is growing rapidly, primarily because it can profitably utilize the hydrogen available as a by-product from catalytic reforming. Refining operations employing hydrogen include: treatment of catalytic reformer feed stock, hydrotreating of middle distillates, desulfurization, finishing of lubricating oils, finishing of waxes, and refining of lubricating oils. All these processing operations are competing for the hydrogen available from catalytic reforming. I n practically all, substantial quantities of sulfur are removed from the charge stock and appear as hydrogen sulfide in the recycle gas stream, from which it can be recovered. I n many refining situations, sufficient quantities of hydrogen sulfide are available to justify its collection and conversion to sulfuric acid. As refining becomes more intensive and hydrogénation in refining expands, more refiners will find it economical to recover hydrogen sulfide. In other cases, this method of disposal is mandatory to control air pollution. Substantial quantities of hydrogen sulfide are still being vented and b u r n e d at m a n y refineries where air pollution is not a problem. Utilization of hydrogen in refining operations is increasing rapidly and will u n d o u b t edly exceed the hydrogen available from catalytic reforming. This will necessitate the production of hydrogen. W i t h the Texaco partial oxidation process for making hydrogen it is possible to utilize all kinds of fuels as a hydrogen source, such as gas, gasoline, middle distillates, cycle fuel oils, or coal. Superfractionation e q u i p m e n t is being utilized by the petroleum in114 A
dustry in ever-increasing a m o u n t . Cosden, for instance, at Big Spring, Tex., is reported to be using three towers in series for ethyl benzene fractionation. This series of towers is said to be equivalent to 350 theoretical plates. O t h e r refiners are r e sorting to superfractionation for both products and for selected charge stocks for units such as isomerization units. Future Trends T h e trend in refining will be to increase the production of materials required for the petrochemicals industry. T h e 5 0 % increase in the quantity of by-products required by 1965 for petrochemicals can be adequately met. T h e r e will be increased competition for some of these materials to make the " c h e m ical" fuels of the future. This m a y give rise to spot shortages or a b normal increases in price. Prices generally will increase, but except in these spot areas these increases will not cause the petrochemical industry appreciable trouble. WAYNE
KUHN
T h e Texas Co.
Petroleum Industry IN T H E next 8 years, the a n n u a l rate of growth in petroleum d e m a n d will be somewhat slower t h a n in the recent past. T h e a n n u a l rate of growth in gasoline d e m a n d , which r a n about 7 . 5 % per a n n u m i m m e diately after World W a r I I , has declined in recent years to 4 . 5 % . T h e lower r a t e of growth is likely to continue, because the percentage growth in total cars on the road will be less than in recent years and because a larger share of the new car additions will be second cars, which typically consume less gasoline per vehicle t h a n first cars. Slackening in the rate of growth of middle distillate d e m a n d , which has been about 6 . 6 % per a n n u m recently, is also expected. Natural Gas Production During the past 25 years, the growth in marketed production of n a t u r a l gas has been even more d r a m a t i c t h a n the growth in petroleum consumption. In the period
INDUSTRIAL AND ENGINEERING CHEMISTRY
1920 to 1956, the average a n n u a l growth r a t e for natural gas was 7.2%, compared to 5.2% for petroleum products. I n the future, the growth in natural gas consumption will be at a slightly lower rate, for several reasons: T h e gas transmission lines have already completed their initial penetration of most major consuming centers, considerable conversion of coal a n d oil burners to n a t u r a l gas has already taken place where it has been economically desirable, a n d additional conversions will necessarily come at a slower rate, and rising prices for n a t u r a l gas will bring it into closer competition with other fuels than in m a n y market areas in the recent past. All things considered, the rate of growth in n a t u r a l gas consumption during the next 8 years will be a p proximately 4 . 5 % per a n n u m . M a r keted production of n a t u r a l gas will thus rise to about 15.2 trillion cubic feet in 1965,.or about 4 2 % above the estimated level of 10.7 trillion cubic feet in 1957. T o provide for anticipated withdrawals a n d to have a ratio of domestic reserves to domestic production of 20 to 1 in 1965 (somewhat less than the present ratio of 22 to 1), it will be necessary to find about 184 trillion cubic feet during the 8-year period—about 2 cubic feet of gas for each cubic foot produced. This discovery rate is approximately equal to that realized during the past 10 years and should be attainable—if natural gas producers are not burdened with excessive federal controls a n d a d e q u a t e financial incentives are permitted in terms of allowed gas prices. T h e major p a r t of the United States n a t u r a l gas production will come from Texas and Louisiana. I n 1956, these two states accounted for nearly 7 0 % of our total natural gas production. T h e Gulf Coast area alone of these two states currently produces about 3 6 . 5 % of the national total. By 1965, it is possible that Texas and Louisiana will have a n even larger percentage of the total as a result of further development of the offshore area, which has turned out to be highly productive of natural gas reserves. However, if the Gulf Coast area should maintain only its current ratio of 3 6 . 5 % of
now! greater safety and efficiency in total production, its total output in 1965 would be at the r a t e of approxi mately 5.5 trillion cubic feet a n n u ally. I n m a n y consumer markets, even if n a t u r a l g a s prices rose substan tially, gas would still compete o n favorable terms with other fuels, particularly in Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Cincinnati, and other m a r ket areas in t h e Mid-West. F o r example, in Cleveland a t the end of 1955, t h e prices of competing fuels for household consumption per mil lion B.t.u.'s, adjusted for t h e r m a l efficiency, w e r e : low volatile bitu minous coal, $1.50; high volatile bi tuminous coal, $1.30; No. 2 fuel oil, $1.56; and n a t u r a l gas $0.88. Moreover, even in areas such as New England, where n a t u r a l gas sells above other fuels, gas consump tion has continued to increase. I n Bridgeport, Conn., for example, comparative fuel prices p e r million B.t.u.'s in t h e household m a r k e t in 1955 were approximately: n a t u r a l gas, $1.59; coal, $1.38; a n d No. 2 fuel oil, $1.32. T h e fact that gas has found increasing consumer accept ance u n d e r these price conditions suggests that its convenience, cleanli ness, a n d efficiency will permit it to sell o n a competitive basis a t prices considerably above parity with other fuels in the household market. I n t h e light of these considera tions, we anticipate t h a t n a t u r a l gas prices will continue to move u p w a r d over t h e next 8 years, b u t perhaps not as rapidly as in the recent past. Average contract prices a t the well head should be a t least 5 to 10 cents per thousand cubic feet higher in 1965 than a t the present time. T h e u p w a r d movement will be, of course, influenced b y t h e regulatory poli cies of the Federal Power Commis sion. I n t h e long r u n , however, the prices will inevitably adjust to the levels indicated by d e m a n d a n d sup ply and will sooner or later take full cognizance of the relative utility of gas in the household market vs. other fuels. T h e growth in d e m a n d for L P G ' s is expected to continue, although a t a somewhat slower rate. I n a recent study, t h e Southwest Research I n stitute h a s estimated L P G sales in 1965 at about 9.8 billion gallons. Various other sources have projected
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VOL. 50, NO. 1 • JANUARY 1958 115 Α
I/EC SPECIAL FEATURE 1965 sales at between 9.5 and 10.5 billion gallons. Production of L P G should prove ample to meet the estimated d e m a n d , particularly if the predicted increase in n a t u r a l gas output materializes. I n the recent past, L P G production has frequently exceeded supply, thus creating severe storage problems. I n 1956, for example, production was 8.5 billion gallons, or 1.9 million gallons more t h a n consumption d u r ing the year. According to a n estim a t e m a d e by the LPGA Times, L P G production will be about 10.5 billion gallons in 1965. It appears, therefore, that the gap between supply and sales will continue but will gradually narrow. J O H N G.
MCLEAN
Continental Oil Co.
Hydrocarbon Requirements T H E first and most i m p o r t a n t aromatic is benzene. Styrene is the major consumer of benzene, using 4 0 % of the total U n i t e d States dem a n d . T h e two major end uses of styrene are polystyrene a n d S-BR r u b b e r (GR-S). Polystyrene m a r kets will continue to grow, especially in plastics. Styrene will also find greater use in combination with alkyd resins in styrenated oils and other surface coatings. Polyester resins have a n expansive future in bonding fiber glass and other applications. These trends lead to a conservative estimate of a total U n i t e d States dem a n d of 1.5 billion pounds per year of styrene by 1965, equivalent to 186,000,000 gallons per year of benzene. Ethylbenzene m a y be a competitor to benzene for this styrene d e m a n d , especially as a styrene m a n ufacturer using ethylbenzene will not have to locate close to a n ethylene source. T h e determining factor in the use of ethylbenzene vs. alkylated benzene as styrene r a w m a t e rial will be cost. By 1965, it is felt that the a m o u n t of styrene produced from ethylbenzene will not exceed 160 million pounds per year of styrene or 20 million gallons of equivalent benzene.
92 million gallons per year of benzene. T h e third largest user of benzene by 1965 will be nylon. By 1965, d e m a n d for nylon should reach 445 million pounds per year, equivalent to 97 million gallons of cyclohexane. I t is estimated that 67 million gallons of this cyclohexane will come from benzene and the rest from other petroleum sources. This 67 million gallons of cyclohexane is equivalent to 60 million gallons per year of benzene. Dodecylbenzene, for synthetic soaps, is a major user of benzene. T h e synthetic soap m a r k e t will increase, and by 1965 the a m o u n t of dodecylbenzene needed will a m o u n t to 575 million pounds per year, equivalent to 43 million gallons of benzene yearly. Toluene a n d p-Xylene
T h e m a r k e t for toluene as a solvent is expected to grow at a slow rate. I n 1954, this was 2 2 % of the total toluene produced. Reasons for this are improved solvent-recovery systems, latex-base paints, and growth of organisols and plastisols. Explosives will claim a decreasing percentage of the toluene market. T h e largest expansion in toluene dem a n d will be for aviation gasoline and chemical synthesis. Use of toluene in making tolylene diisocyanates for use in polyurethans a n d synthesis with acetylene to make polymethylstyrene a r e indications of the potential growth of toluene as a chemical intermediate. I t is predicted that by 1965, total consumption of toluene will r e a c h 335 million gallons per year, and that the a m o u n t available from coal should not be more t h a n 50 million gallons per year. T h e rest will come from petroleum. T h e symmetrical isomer, p-xylene, has a major use in the production of terephthalic acid used in D a c r o n fibers and M y l a r films. By 1959,
T h e second largest end use for benzene is in phenol. By 1965, the dem a n d should reach 670 million pounds per year or the equivalent of 116 A
INDUSTRIAL AND ENGINEERING CHEMISTRY
Benzene—Where Will It Come from? Million Gallons/Year 1956 1965 199 220 114 280 57 *
Source Coal Petroleum Imports
* Imports may be eliminated by 1965 because of large demand for benzene in gasoline used in Europe.
capacity will be about 160 million pounds yearly. Expansion in capacity needed to meet 1965 requirements will probably be m a d e by the 1959 suppliers, as they should be able to m a k e marginal increases in investment to meet the 1965 d e m a n d . Other Aromatics
I n forecasting the d e m a n d for o-xylene a n d m-xylene, attention should be directed to the phthalic anhydride m a r k e t and n a p h t h a l e n e supply, as these directly affect the xylene isomer d e m a n d . T h e d e m a n d for phthalic anhydride in 1965 will be a b o u t 450 million pounds per year. T h e estimated phthalic anhydride capacity at present is 370 million pounds per year, almost all located in the East and Midwest because of proximity to both the n a p h thalene r a w material source and market. T h e raw material for projected new phthalic anhydride capacity will have to be other t h a n naphthalene, probably o-xylene, which m a y result in phthalic anhydride capacity in the Gulf Coast area. I n 1955, n a p h t h a l e n e supplied all but about 4 % of the raw material used in phthalic anhydride m a n u facture, the latter being o-xylene. T h e a m o u n t of naphthalene t h a t can be supplied in the future will be dependent on the a m o u n t recoverable from coal tar and imports. I m p o r t s will decrease as the foreign phthalic anhydride capacity grows and should approach zero by 1965 or
Ethylene Consumption Ethylene Year
Oxide
Halogenated Polyethylene
Ethanol
Ethylene
Styrene
0.6 0.7 0.9
0.4 0.5 0.7
Billions of Pounds 1956 1960 1965
1.0 1.4 1.7
0.6 1.3 1.6
0.8 1.0 1.2
