BUSINESS
PROCESS INDUSTRIES* OUTi_(»0K Gross national product of goods and services attained new high in first quarter . . . Personal income gained but savings dropped . . . Employment at record *TpiiE emphasis is again on the high in-*· dustrial production that has charac terized this year to date. T h e nation's output of goods and services, or gross national product, attained a n e w high in first quarter, or $361 billion annual rate, according t o the OfBce of Business Economics, Department of Commerce. This was $2 billion more than the an nual rate of t h e preceding quarter and $14.9 billion more than t h e annual level for all of 1952. Another good feature is that this large output has been well bal anced with demand, with no unwieldy surpluses accumulating. Personal income during first quarter was at the annual rate of $281.3 billion, as against $277 billion in the final 1952 quarter. Increases in wages and salaries accounted for $3.5 billion, bringing in crease in total incomes to an annual rate of $192.0 billion, primarily because of higher payments to workers in private industries. Personal Savings Fell However, personal savings fell from $20.5 billion in last quarter 1952 to $19.5 billion in first quarter 1953. A m o n g non durable goods, a moderate decline was reported in clothing purchases, but this was offset b y an increase in food outlays. Government purchases of goods and services, federal, state, and local com bined, were at annual rates of $82.5 bil lion, a s against $80.5 billion in previous quarter, with t h e increase equally divided b e t w e e n national security outlays and those b y more local governments. Apparently high production was not confined to first quarter. It was learned during the week that production of news print in North America in April reached the highest tonnage for that month in history, at 568,510 tons, compared with 5 6 6 , 0 0 2 tons i n April last year. Ship ments of 5 8 7 , 8 9 3 tons this April compare with 562,268 tons last April, t h e figures being those of the Newsprint Service Bu reau. Canadian newsprint production in April was 4 8 0 , 3 1 6 tons, with shipments 498,889 tons; Canadian production for the first four m o n t h s was 0.19k higher than for the like 1 9 5 2 period. Another new record is for nonfarm em ployment in April, at 48.8 million per sons, and 1.3 million over the year before. Manufacturing employment w a s 1.0 mil lion over the year before. However, the upward trend of nonfarm employment s h o w e d signs of tapering off. A good barometer of industrial pace is sales of machine tools. T h e National Ma chine Tool Builders Association reports that n e w orders have continued to advance
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in 1953, with makers of civilian g o o d s ordering at a rate that more than ofiFsets the continuing decline from defense orders. W e must not talk ourselves into a de pression, said Arno H. Johnson, vice presi dent, J. Walter Thompson, to tHe Ameri can Marketing Association recently. M o s t
of today's business executives passed their iormative years during the depression of the thirties and are apt to consider condi tions of that period as normal. T h e present productive capacity has so grown that the standard of living can b e increased one third b y proper management, he said. Only a 5 % increase in civilian purchases over 1952 level would balance a $10 bil lion drop in government purchases. Turning to the accompanying graphs, it w a s commented upon in this department of May 11 that production of industrial chemicals had reached and passed the 600index mark for the first time in history. Precisely, March production was at 6 0 4 % of the average production for the years 1935 to 1939. In March 1952 production
INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS vs INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION BASE PERIOD INDEX 1935-19>3?=000 INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS 6001
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CHEMICAL A N D ENGINEERING NEWS
AND
ENGINEERING
NEWS
had been at 563. In February this year t h e pace had been 5 9 7 , a revised figure. Industrial production generally gained in March to 239 from the revised 236 for February, improving over the 2 1 7 index in March 1952. Apparently none of the common basic industries have made the growth of industrial chemicals. Iron and steel, "which often occupies the spotlight as the key industry, stood at 3 2 5 in March against 2 8 3 a year before. Machinery stands second to industrial chemicals, at 404 for March as against 3 5 9 for the like 1952 month. Chemical products ranked among the leaders at 319, up from 298 for the year. Automobiles were rated at 3 0 8 as against 2 2 2 the year before. Rayon deliveries deserve honorable mention at 3 4 9 versus 288. Since nothing is great or small except b y comparison, it is appropriate to mention some of the "smalls." Anthracite coal stood at 51 versus 68 in March 1952. Processed fruits and vegetables were 81 versus 82. Speaking of steel production, one of the graphs shows output expressed in per cent of capacity, averaged monthly. Let it b e said that the present generation might be surprised to learn that close to 100% operations for an extended period is abnormal. For year after year between the two world wars steel makers considered conditions satisfactory if the average pace w a s at 7 0 % of capacity. T h e break-even point, as to profits, was usually 5 0 to 60%. The pace this April was 98.7% against 8 9 . 7 % in April last year, sagging from 101.8% in March, which is usually the peak month. "Red Metal" More Plentiful Another metal frequently mentioned with steel is copper, production of which in April was 112,660 tons, refined grade, a considerable improvement over 98,402 tons the year before. In March 112,016 tons were produced. Higher production this year reflects in part expansion of capacity and perhaps the more attractive price of 3 0 cents against the long-controlled price of 24.5 cents. The feature in copper of late has been a falling off in consumption in Europe and a flood of offers of foreign copper to the United States. Factory consumption of crude vegetable oils has been running better than for the corresponding period of 1952, it can be seen on the graph b y even the near-sighted. March use was 543.0 million pounds, following 496.8 million in short February. The graph on by-product coke output is nothing to excite the imagination. Production in short February was 5.7 million tons, against 5.8 million the year before, and 6.3 million this January, which had been a record. CHART C R E D I T S : Chemical Productiorl·- Federal Reserve Board; CopperCopper Institute; Vegetable Oils—Bureau of the Census; By-product Coke—Department of Commerce; Steel Operations— American Iron and Steel Institute.
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