BUSINESS
PROCESS INDUSTRIES» OUTLOOK D i v i d e n d curtailment w o r r i e s stock m a r k e t . . . Steel strike p a r t l y responsible, but steel soon plentiful . . . Record Christmas sales e x p e c t e d . . . Rayon use better ' T H E business news has been a mixture of optimism a n d pessimism. T h u s the stock market broke when National Dis tillers stated that it would halve its divi dend, and Packard Motors, blaming the steel strike, passed its dividend. Wall Street perhaps fears that other large com panies may do likewise. National Distillers blamed its coming reduced dividend to an outbreak of boot legging, d u e to high prices of liquor, what with increased costs and higher taxes. Again, this is an illustration of how high prices can price goods out of a market, or promote other ills such as illegal selling. Though Packard passed its dividend completely because of lack of steel, this lack will b e only temporary. E d w a r d L. Ryerson, chairman, Inland Steel Co., stated recently that b y t h e end of first quarter 1953 there will be sufficient steel for the country's needs. O n this point government officials said recently that automobile makers will re ceive enough steel to build 1,250,000 cars and 315,000 trucks in first quarter. In •fact, actual steel deliveries then will be at the highest level since the Government began allocations under t h e Controlled Materials Plan. Santa Claus to Be Active Again on the optimistic side is the pre diction that retailers will do a greater volume of business this Christmas season t h a n last—optimistic for all except t h e harried heacTof a household who realizes that there are some 8 5 nightmare shop ping days before Christmas. Howard P . Abrahams, director of sales promotion a n d visual merchandising, National Retail D r y Goods Association, said after a sur vey that stores are making more careful preparations for Christmas than ever b e fore. Peak stocks are planned for Nov. 15. For the retailers the November-De cember period normally brings in 2 5 % of t h e year's sales, he said. On t h e subject of business forecasting, A. M. Raub, D u n & Bradstreet, told a group of cost accountants that for pre dicting six to nine months ahead business executives are more accurate than gov ernment economists and experts. Business executives have their own order books as guides, which reveal the state of confi dence of buyers. Anyway, government figures usually deal with past perform ances only. One of the important chemical process i n g industries is of course textiles. T h e northern segment of that industry must pull itself out of a rut, said Leonard Carmichael, president, Tufts College, a n d 4206
chairman, Committee of New England, speaking before the National Association of Cotton Manufacturers. He said that both management a n d labor must get b e hind such a program. T h e speaker said that in addition to its contributions to cost reduction, improved technology in t h e textile industry is a major source of profits
through the development of new and im proved products. An event in another processing indus try, leather, is the removal of price ceilings on shoes, taken b y OPS because of an a b u n d a n c e of shoes and assumption that prices will remain at present levels. T h e status of production is one of the best barometers of industry. Declining trends have been noted since March, as will be seen by t h e accompanying large graph, both as regards industrial chemi cals and industrial production generally. In both cases, production in July, the last month for which figures are available, compares unfavorably with a year before. Using the index figures based on 1935—39 equals 100, the chemical index was 545 this July against 554 the year before. In
INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS vs INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION BASE PERIOD ΙΝ0ΕΧ 1935-1939=100 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 350
INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS 600
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500
250
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*INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS
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TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION • • • • • •
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1952
RAYON
FERTILIZERS TAX TAG SALES IN 13 SOUTHS T H D U S A N O S OF SHO»T TONS
CONSUMPTION. Mill ' O N S OF POUNDS. OF YAPN
DWESf S ' A T f S .
Λ. AND STAPLE FIBEBS
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CELULOSE ACETATE PLASCTIS
SALES OF DRUGS Β* WHOLESALERS,EXCLUDNIG UCUOB MILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
CHEMICAL A N D ENGINEERING NEWS
CHEMICAL
AND
ENGINEERING
NEWS
the case of all industrial production, 191 for this July compares with 212 in 1951. T h e chemical pace in July, slowed from 562 in J u n e ; all output dropped from 2 0 3 in June. Again, the graphs represent w h a t a stupendous growth chemicals h a v e achieved in the light of the general aver age of industry. In most lines of production, figures for which are compiled by t h e Board of Gov ernors, Federal Reserve System, declines took place. However, July is not a r e p resentative month because of slowdown for vacations, many plants closing d o w n entirely for mass vacations. C r u d e p e troleum production held up a m o n g t h e best, with index of 192 for July against 193 in June. Several other barometers for July w e r e .in h a r m o n y with the production indicator. T h u s , employment of production workers in manufacturing was at the index figure of 98.7 in July as against 101.3 in J u n e , here the index basis b e i n g 1947-49 equals 100. Since many factors concerned with agri culture are highly seasonal, it is not s u r prising to find sales of fertilizers in t h a t category. T a g sales in 13 chief consum ing states were 371,000 tons in July versus 278,000 tons the year before, comparing with 530,000 tons in J u n e . For the "fertilizer year," e n d e d J u n e 30, tax t a g sales and shipments reached a n e w high, gaining 5 . 5 % to 12.7 million tons of fertilizers. Another related figure pertains to super p h o s p h a t e production in June which w a s 940,000 tons of 20
