BUSINESS
PROCESS
INDUSTRIES' OUTLOOK
Several industrial leaders rally to support present nation's economy . . . Korean truce, "honest" dollar, and no inflation called constructive factors IUH many months have so m a n y N o»,leaders of industry and economists ru>hecl to the rostrum to insist that all is well with the American economy and that no depression is in sight. Persistent declines in the stock market were perhaps the chief influence to cause much doubt as to t h e gemuinmess of our prosperity. Steel has always been considered an important basromcter and the fact that operations are 93 to 94Çc oi capacity after having b e e n at 1009c for so many months also caused doubt. Within the steel industry, iron and steel serai) prices are considered barometric and here prices have b e e n declining for eight consecutive weeks, -with a total decline of $10 per t o n fronts the 1 9 5 2 - 1 9 5 ) high at the end of July. And speaking of steel, Benjamin F. Fail less, chairman, United States Steel, told the Economic Club of Detroit that the business outlook is t h e brightest in 20 years. The nation is now faced with the "most challenging opportunity" in two decades and if it allows iitself t o be " p r e dicted" into recession it "will h e its own fault, he said. Let's Not Talk Ourselves Into Poverty He said that inflation h-iis been checked sharply and an honest dollar reestablished. Most important ofr all is the truce in Korea, "uneasy though it may be." Yet the pessimists say: "Just because w e do have peace and an honest: dollar, a recession is inevitable." " T h e pessimists a r e saying in effect that war and inflation are essential to America's prosperity and that without these two things we cannot maintains our s t a n d a r d of living." Mr. Fairless said furth-er that America cannot increase its economic health b y becoming a nation of "monetary dope addicts." Surely, he said, if: cannot be that America is unable t o meett successfully the challenge of peace. A slightly different p o i n t of view is taken by Murray Shields, vice president, Bank of Manhattan Co., w h o told the Sales Executives Club t h a t a "slight depression" at this time might b e gooci for o u r present economy. H e said: "A l i t t l e depression is possible at this time and might very wHl set the stage for the greatest prosperity this nation has ever experienced." Another speaker at thv« same meeting was Warren Kinsman, v i c e president, Du Pont, who warned that '*a diain psychological business hysteria" i s a danger point that could cause us "possibly t o talk ourselves into a depression. " To overcome 4148
this we must emphasize the "good things in our economy." Thus future steel cutbacks b y t h e automobile industry c a n b e used for railway a n d highway expansion. Speaking of automobiles, Arthur O. Dietz, president, C.I.T. Financial Corp.,
said there is no saturation point for automobiles now, or 10 years from n o w , provided a vigorous campaign for b e t t e r roads is carried forward. Stock market behavior is no barometer of t h e nation's economic health, said W . Harold Brenton, president, American Bankers Association. In t h e t o p accompanying graph a portrayal of t h e July production situation is given—a month when there w e r e few qualms about t h e possibility of a recession. D u r i n g that month production of industrial chemicals rose to new heights, or to the index figure of 646 from 627 in J u n e . T h e comparable figure lor July of t h e p r e vious year was 565. T h e situation was different for industrial production as a whole. H e r e July
INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS vs INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION BASE PERIOD INDEX 1 9 3 5 - 1 9 3 9 = 1 0 0
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS 650
350
450 1952
1953
COPPER
STEEL OPERATIONS
REFINED PRODUCTION. THOUSANDS OF SHORT TONS
PER CENT CAPACITY
ι
I
122
1
120
1
"
5
1
110
1
103
I
100
1 1
_A
d
w*
w 90
I
VEGFTABLE OILS FACTORY C O N S U M P T I O N tlONS O f POUNDS
OF CRUDE
OriS
1
1
1
1
'952
1
1
1
1953
1 1 1
1
BY-PRODUCT COKE PRODUCTION. MILLIONS OF SHORT TONS
M
'L_. :.
CHEMICAL AND ENGINEERING NEWS
C H E M I C A L
AND
ENGINEERING
NEWS
had sagged to 233 from 240 in June, com paring with 193 in July 1952. In the case of industrial chemicals, the record is the more remarkable since July is the chief vacation month when an en tire plant may close down, or at least run somewhat curtailed. The reason for the slump in production generally was attributed to vacations, but why would this not affect industrial chemi cals? The general production index was expected to recover from 233 in July to 238 in August, which would still be two points under June. In commenting on the production situa tion, the board of governors of the Federal Reserve System says that output in non durable goods industries recovered in late July and early August, following sharp seasonal curtailment in the first half of July. Paperboard production in early August was at a new peak rate. The classification "chemicals" recovered in July to 328 from 324 in June; paints improved to 166 from 160. but rayon slumped to 371 in July from 382 in June. Two important metals are represented in the graphs this week, one of them cop per. After reaching a postwar high pro duction of refined copper in June of 124,480 tons, output has sagged gradually, to 106,749 tons in August, which compares with 95,366 tons in August 1952. Copper has become much more plenti ful throughout the world than a year ago. Chile has accumulated a rather burden some 100,000 tons of copper and negotia tions have been progressing whereby the United States would buy a substantial tonnage to place in stockpile. Other coun tries have been anxious to sell to the United States.
WINTHROP
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AND
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New York 18, Ν. Υ.
TEMPERATURES
NEW BENCH-TYPE TEST UNIT
CHART CREDITS: Chemical Produc tion—Federal Reserve Board; CopperCopper Institute; Vegetable Otis— Bureau of the Census; By-product Coke— Depart ment of Commerce; Steel Operations— American Iron and Steel Institute. 3 1,
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Steel Shipments Break Records The second metal dealt with here is steel, where operating rates have fallen considerably from previous normal post war pace of around 100%. The average steel production pace in July was 93.1% of capacity, which increased to 9 4 . 1 % in August. Steel shipments for the first seven months of 1953 have been a record high of 48.9 million net tons, the chief gains having been to makers of automobiles, household equipment, and munitions. Shipments for heavy military items were 1.6 million tons, a gain of 650,000 tons over a like 1952 period. When speaking of steel it is appropriate to mention by-product coke production, which has been steady for April to June at around 6 million tons. The 6.1 mil lion tons for June compares with 2.4 mil lion in June 1952 when a strike was in progress. Factory consumption of vegetable oils in July was 377.9 million pounds, follow ing 445.4 million in June, a seasonal drop.
V O L U M E
D-Aspartic A c i d
Tf»ADE M A R K
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COMPLETE TEMPERATURE RANGE
TESTING UNITS
I N
WEB BER 274
Ο CTOBER
Ε Ε Ζ ΕR
MANUFACTURING
MADISON
5,
Combine high and low temperatures within the same cabinet with all controls self con tained. Unit measures 50"x28"x20" with a testing chamber 1 2 " x l 2 " x l 2 " . Temperature range is from -80° F., to 185° F. Heat appli cation is accomplished with reverse cycle refrigeration, which eliminates the hazards associated with open heating elements. A blower is provided for even distribution of temperatures and greater testing accuracy. Latch-type or hinge-type door optional. Accel erated pull-down to -80° in 30 minutes or less. Write today for more complete information
1953
D I V I S I O N
C O M P A N Y , I N C.
(Formerly Webber Appliance Co., Inc.) AVENUE · INDIANAPOLIS
3,
1ND I A N A
4149
