Chapter 5
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David John Millard* Virginia Commonwealth University Ringgold, 907 Floyd Ave., Richmond, Virginia 23284-2512, United States *E-mail:
[email protected].
Although the mission statement of the National Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA) states they are concerned with “scientific discovery and aeronautics research” as well as space exploration, they have a great influence on data collection, presentation, and education concerning climate change. Paired with other agencies such as the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), data showing a warming planet and images of our changing landscape is now able to be viewed and give a possible outlook of what is to come if we do not drastically change our current path.
An old proverb presents the scenario of a frog in a pot of water: if a frog is placed in a pot of boiling water, it will quickly jump out, feeling and realizing the danger it is in and avoiding any injury. Although if the frog is placed in room-temperature water, and the water is gradually heated, the frog would not notice a difference and slowly die from not realizing the danger it is in. The issue of climate change can be recognized in this example, since many people are not being objective and looking outside the box that we are currently living in and seeing changes for what they really are. Recently, “climate change” has become a more recognized and politicized term in American society and all over the world, although it has been studied for decades prior by international scientists. The USGS and NOAA (formally the Weather Bureau) existed prior to NASA and focus on studying earth sciences. These two agencies carry out vital roles in the research and observational sciences that encompass climate change. NOAA © 2017 American Chemical Society Peterman et al.; Climate Change Literacy and Education The Science and Perspectives from the Global Stage Volume 1 ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2017.
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focuses on the weather (which is not to be confused or used interchangeably with “climate”), oceans and coasts, fisheries, and satellites. NOAA like the other agencies, has a climate section that keeps track of the traditional climate change data. This includes the Keeling Curve, which indicates the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, as well as data for land ice and increasing global temperature (1). The USGS has similar databases but brings an interesting perspective to the effects of climate change. Pictures taken at the turn of the 20th century are paired with photographs taken recently to show the vast change in landscapes. Most notable are the photographs of glaciers that have receded (Figure 1), showing a small glimpse of their former self, or those that have melted all together (2).
Figure 1. Glacier retreat in Alaska (3).
How the Beginning of Space Observation Came To Be When NASA was founded at the beginning of the Space Race in 1958 (http://history.nasa.gov/brief.html), its main objective was to conduct space observations but not conduct any earth science observations directly (4). The agencies later developed cooperation that hinged on the development of observational technologies by NASA with the sceientific research performed by each agency independently. During the recession of the 1970s, the budgets of NOAA, USGS, and NASA were cut, forcing partnerships. With the emerging 68 Peterman et al.; Climate Change Literacy and Education The Science and Perspectives from the Global Stage Volume 1 ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2017.
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space technology that NASA was developing, the use of satellites became a possibility to study the earth from low-earth orbit, coupled with land-based measurements. After budget cuts in that same decade, the USGS and NOAA handed over much of the planetary research to NASA. Since they are public agencies under the control of Congress, NASA’s focus shifted to the developing needs of the nation, including fuel efficiency, the depletion of the ozone, and climate change. Later, NASA launched the Mariner probes to Venus and Mars, planets that scientists thought were habitable. Among the many scientific discoveries that these probes made, one of the most interesting was that Venus is an oven, with a runaway greenhouse effect generating soaring temperatures, while Mars is a frozen desert. The probes sent back data indicating that water may have been present on Mars, but because of the freezing temperatures now present, any water that may have been there would now be frozen. Scientists, as happens with many experiments, were left with more questions than answers (4).
The Problem at Hand Returning back to earth, the Keeling Curve, which documents the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, is the first long-term, direct measurement of CO2 pollution in the atmosphere. The curve measures the amount of this primary greenhouse gas in the atmosphere from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. The data shows an annual cyclical pattern: the earth seems to be “breathing out” as more CO2 is released into the atmosphere when the northern hemisphere goes into the fall and winter months. During this period trees lose their leaves, which decay on the ground, releasing more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. When spring and summer arrive in the Northern Hemisphere, the new budding leaves “inhale” the carbon dioxide, pulling it out of the atmosphere as they photosynthesize. The Southern Hemisphere goes through the same cycle at opposite times of year, of course, but because of the increased land mass in the Northern Hemisphere, the Keeling curve is reflective of the growing season in the North. The Keeling Curve, shown in Figure 2, clearly indicates that the baseline of the cyclical CO2 level has been rising each year of its measurement. This continuous, directly measured data, which began in 1958, can been extended back hundreds of thousands of years thanks to the proxy data of ice core samples that have been extracted in the polar regions. These samples of trapped ancient air in the ice and snow show that the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is at levels not seen in more than 800,000 years (1). Scientists have known for years that there was a correlation between carbon dioxide and climate change, but only in recent years has it become more of a talking point to the masses in a general, scientific, and political view. There are may types of greenhouse gasses, but the best known is carbon dioxide, the gas that we exhale every day while breathing, the same gas that is released when we run our cars or anything that has been gassed up with fossil fuels. The excess carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gasses like methane and chlorofluorocarbons CFCs) that are increasing in the atmosphere trap solar energy here on earth, much like rolled-up car windows on a sunny day. This is called the “enhanced Greenhouse effect,” and it is a direct effect of increased burning of 69 Peterman et al.; Climate Change Literacy and Education The Science and Perspectives from the Global Stage Volume 1 ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2017.
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fossel fuels and other manmade contributing factors, such as deforestation. The enhanced Greenhouse effect also impacts a multitude of other cycles, because of the interconnectivity of the global environment. With an increased temperature comes less polar land and sea ice; less ice means a diminished reflective surface to turn away solar radiation. Instead, it is absorbed by the darker ocean, causing more heat to be trapped. This is an example of positive feedback, where the outcome (less snow and ice) augments the original stimulus (increased temperatures). With the ice melting into the ocean, sea levels rise, causing coastal flooding, increased storm surges, and contamination of coastal freshwater supplies. The warmer oceans can also help generate stronger storms and more extreme weather. Melting glaciers can also limit the amount of fresh water that people have available to drink and water crops. The warmer atmosphere can now hold more water vapor, which can increase droughts, and when the limit of water is reached, the skies can create torrential downpours onto the dry soil. The dry soil can’t absorb the water like before, causing flooding and mudslides.
Figure 2. The Keeling Curve showing the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere (1).
Data Collection: Clouds and Aerosols As mentioned before, data has been recorded for decades—resulting in the Keeling curve—and going back hundreds of thousands of years thanks to ice core samples. Today, with advancing technology, satellites can help with the collection of data and the documentation of the changing planet. These satellites come not just from the United States, but from Argentina, Japan, Germany, Canada, and the 70 Peterman et al.; Climate Change Literacy and Education The Science and Perspectives from the Global Stage Volume 1 ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2017.
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European Space Agency (4). Some from these have their own means to conduct the launches and to maintain the satellites; others will work in conjunction with other countries in a joint effort to increase knowledge for the benefit of mankind. The instruments, which can be highly sensitive, have to be calibrated and so they will last in the extreme temperatures and harshness of space. To validate calibration, the Airborne Science Program uses an aircraft-based platform to ensure the proper functioning of all components. When on these flights, measurements are taken and can be used as a standalone or in conjunction with satellite data to give a better understanding of what is being recorded. This preliminary test is the first step of almost any type of instrument destined for the harsh environment of space (5, 6). To help with validating technology in space, the New Millennium Program’s Earth Observing 1 (EO-1 NMP) is essential. This mission is vital to validating the new instrumentation that is sent up into orbit for earth observation. It also validates different communications technology to send the data that is recorded back to earth. The testing includes advanced software that allows for an increased level of autonomy in the satellite. This increased autonomy can include automatic adjustments if the satellite loses altitude or the automatic warmup and calibration of the instruments on board without commands from the operators on earth (5, 7). The primary driver for climate change is carbon dioxide. The Keeling curve has documented this from the ground. In orbit of the Earth, various assets are also documenting this release of carbon and other forms of pollution, such as particular forms of aerosols and methane. Aura, CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation), CATS (Cloud-Aerosol Transport System), CloudSat, and the Obiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) all focus on the pollution in the atmosphere (5, 8–12). OCO-2 is dedicated to studying atmospheric carbon dioxide, like the Mona Loa observation area, but monitoring from space allows for not only another reading to verify the ground findings, but an almost unobstructed way to test for the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (5, 12). Aura is a part of the “A-Train,” which is a series of satellites that observe Earth, each with its own mission. In this series of satellites, Aura is the “caboose,” monitoring the ozone, trace gasses, and aerosols in the atmosphere (5, 8). These aerosols, such as hydrofluorocarbon and chlorofluorohydrocarbon, can have damaging effects on the ozone. These two aerosols specifically were responsible for much of the depletion of the ozone layer. Some aerosols can have a cooling effect on the atmosphere by reflecting the heat from the sun back out into space, and some aerosols have a warming effect. The data from the Aura satellite is not only used to determine the trends in ozone, but also how these gasses and aerosols change the air quality and how they effect climate change. CALIPSO works in conjunction with CloudSat. CALIPSO enables scientists to generate 3-D models on the lifespan of aerosols, how they form, evolve and impact the weather, climate and air quality (5, 9). CloudSat aids CALIPSO with the generation of the 3-D model with the help of its radar, which is 1,000 times more sensitive than the weather radars used on Earth (5, 11). Finally, CATS uses LIDAR, which is a more advanced form of radar that uses a laser to document the properties of clouds and aerosols and how they effect the Earth’s climate (5, 10).
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The Act of Melting The melting of ice, and the subsequent sea level rise that occurs when land ice melts, is due primarily to the rising temperature from excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. There are two types of ice that are being monitored: sea ice and land ice. Sea ice, as the name suggests, resides in the sea and melts and regrows each season as the planet performs its normal warming and cooling from the changes of the seasons. Sea ice can be seen as the ice cubes already in a glass of water that you have poured—it can melt and the water level stays relatively equal, since the density of solid water is only sliglhtly less than liquid water and the volume of ice is already accounted for in the glass of water. One problem that scientists have reported is the lack of sea ice growth in the past few decades. A simple search of the National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) shows that between 1981 and 2010, more than 7.3 million square kilometers of sea ice has not recovered from its previous extent in the northern hemisphere, as seen in Figure 3 (13). The ice that does form has also been thinner than in previous years. A tactic that may be shown by people who like to skew the data in their own interest is to show a small segment of this graph where the ice seems to recover near 2010, but that is omitting the rest of the data, which shows the obvious negative slope.
Figure 3. Sea ice decline (14). Land ice constitutes glaciers and the ice that covers the great majority of the continent of Antarctica. Referring back to the glass of water, land ice would be ice that is added to that glass of water, increasing the overall volume of water, eventually causing an overflow from the glass if the water level reaches high 72 Peterman et al.; Climate Change Literacy and Education The Science and Perspectives from the Global Stage Volume 1 ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2017.
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enough. This height is inching closer with increasing sea levels, which has been climbing steadily over the past two decades (15). If you imagine the glass of water as the ocean and the area around the glass—places such as Miami, New Orleans, and the Floridian peninsula, which are all very close to, or below, sea level—is in danger of sea level rise. There is an additional detriment for planet Earth with the melting of glaciers. Not only are these glaciers beautiful to look at when visiting national parks, but they are also vital to the fresh water supply for many people. One of the most visible signs that something is not right with the environment is to view the many documented timelapse photos of glacier retreats from USGS, NASA, or NPS (National Park Service) websites. The shocking difference in landscapes from the rapidly disappearing glaciers is truly alarming (16).
Analyzing Climate Change’s Effects on Water The data from the sea and land ice is collected by a variety of agencies. The NSIDC documents the extent of sea ice. But when trying to determine the amount of ice that is being lost and regrown, a larger-scale operation and field of view is needed. Satellites such as Aqua, GRACE, Landsat-8, and Terra serve as data collectors from orbit (5, 17–20). Aqua is a part of the “A-Train” group of satellites mentioned above. Aqua is the first satellite in the group, and it collects information on atmospheric water and precipitation, as well as sea and land ice cover (5, 17). GRACE, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, is a pair of satellites equidistant from each other, but the distance varies based on the changes in gravity from the movement of large masses of water and ice (5, 18). One of the measurements taken by the Landsat-8 satellite, meanwhile, includes documenting glacier melt (5, 19). Finally, Terra analyzes the atmosphere, ocean, land, and snow and ice to examine the water, carbon and energy cycles of Earth (5, 20). These cycles include how the water is evaporated from a body of water, condensed, and precipitated back down to land. A disruption in this cycle can cause droughts or torrential downpours. The increased global air and ocean temperatures and their subsequent effects on the water cycles are the catalysts behind many extreme weather patterns linked to climate change. The increase in ocean temperatures is causing sea water to expand, which also contributes to sea level rise (15). This “thermal expansion” of the ocean waters, together with the effect of land ice melt, can lead to flooding and larger storm surge, while the warmer oceans are fuel for stronger storms. With two-thirds of the planet’s surface covered in water, it makes sense that there are multiple satellites in orbit that are designed with water in mind. From sea level to wave height, which indicates the strength of the storms present, orbiters such as Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), ISS-RapidScat, Ocean Surface Topography Mission, Jason2 (OSTM), and Jason-3 have their own specific ways of collecting measurements and data for documenting the changing environment (5, 21–24).
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The End Product “Storm of the century,” “100-Year Flood,” or “Decade of Drought” seem to be headlines that were repeated continuously over the past decade when significant storms, droughts, floods, or other natural disasters occured. From the ongoing drought in California, to Hurricane Katrina and Super Storm Sandy, the future of what a warmed planet has in store for us is terrifying. These storms can’t be ignored when it comes to their power and how they have gotten that powerful. With the help of LandSat-7 and Terra, images of storm damage, droughts, and wildfires can be seen from both before and after perspectives (5, 19, 20). These imaging techniques also provide the before and after views of mountaintops that have been mined using a technique that removes the entire top of the mountain to expose and collect the coal beneath. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires the mining companies to replace the soil and vegetation as they were before the mining process, but after removing materials, the original state cannot be duplicated. The images collected after the reclamation make it quite clear that the mountain does not look the same as the original. A recent study has shown that this type of mining causes toxic conditions to the wildlife that inhabit these mined areas, both land and aquatic wildlife (25). All of this raw data collected by LandSat-7 and Terra can be formulated into different graphs and charts which are accessible online at each agencies’ website. In today’s culture, video seems to drive everything, which is why this data is put together into videos that can be seen online through NASA and their Hyperwall, seen in Figure 4. In this figure, the Hyperwall, a series of linked displays, is providing a global view of where aerosols are formed, how they travel through the jet stream and then eventually dissipate (27). There are also times when natural events such as volcanic eruptions occur, and this display can track where the events occur and how the emitted gasses spread throughout the atmosphere. Other presentations include the before-and-after of natural disasters, the rate of urban development in regions, deforestation, and a host of other natural and manmade changes. I was first introduced to this presentation format in 2013 at the National ACS conference in New Orleans, Louisiana. The stunning detail that is shown gives new meaning to the adage that “a picture is worth a thousand words.” At the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 19th Conference of Parties (COP19), I was able to view the wall again. This time, there were more stuning videos. One such video was a view of Super Storm Sandy gaining strength in the Caribbean and thundering up the eastern seaboard into New Jersey. The diameter of the storm stretched from southern Maine to the shores of North Carolina. This visual representation, depicting the wind strength and the precipitation totals, coupled with the images of the devastation to a town in New Jersey hit home more than any article can. The visuals that are shown are a wake up call to what the new normal may become if we do not stop emitting large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. The wall was also able to couple the graph of sea ice extent with a visual representation of the extent over the North Pole. At COP19, the entire scientific body, from every major country and organization around the world, had 74 Peterman et al.; Climate Change Literacy and Education The Science and Perspectives from the Global Stage Volume 1 ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2017.
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the same overall message. The message is that they have the data, and the data demands that something be done. The environment that we have on this Earth is a precious thing. One of my idols from the 1990’s, Bill Nye, used his television show to promote scientific literacy and encourage learning. His show featured a segment on the greenhouse gas effect and the effects of climate change. Following Nye’s television career, he created many simple videos discussing scientific quandaries, including the fragility and the causes of this climate epidemic. One of these displays a simple technique of putting two globes in sealed containers under heat lamps. One of the containers has carbon dioxide pumped into it, and you can see the thermometer rise while the control, with no added CO2, does not. This simple experiment shows that excess carbon dioxide can cause a rise in the temperature of a system (28). The fragility of the earth is easily described by another one of my idols, Neil deGrasse Tyson, in a comparison of Earth to a school room globe. If earth was the size of that globe, our atmosphere wouldn’t be any thicker than the lacquer on it (29). These two individuals are also the faces of the “debate” that is going on, even though the overwhelming consensus among scientists is that 97% agree climate warming trends are due to human activities (30).
Figure 4. The NASA Hyperwall on display in Warsaw, Poland, during COP19 (26).
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New Generation, Same Tactics It is not too late to change our ways when it comes to the warming planet. This is also not the first time that scientists of the world have provided scientific evidence on a topic and that has been met with resistance. In the 1970s and 1980s, scientists started to notice something over the southern pole of the planet. The ozone layer, which helps protect us from the sun’s harmful ultraviolet rays, was diminishing. Over time, more and more data in the peer-reviewed scientific literature confirmed the depletion of the ozone layer. Yet, the general public was deceived by other organizations that sought profits over the health of the citizens of the world. It wasn’t until the Montréal Protocol in the late 1980s that the public started to take action and listen to those who did not have a vested interest in the sale of products that ate away at our fragile ozone layer (31). The Montreal Protocol was the first time that a group of countires joined to change their ways for the sake of the planet. After the resulting public outcry and boycott of aerosol sprays, which contained Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), chemicals that were hazardous to ozone, the companies that had denied the claims of the world’s scientists were finally forced to reduce CFC use and production. This type of deception by profit seekers is being employed again today, with a new type of vested interest but the same kind of misinformation. When broadcast on the news, it appears as though there is a ‘debate’ when it comes to climate change, but there is none. Much of the media presents one person on each “side” in an interview which provides a skewed idea that there is scientific evidence that humans are not responsible for global warming, while 97% of climate scientists agree that the climate is warming and that human activities are to blame (30). Scientists and climatologists have presented evidence and formed predictions about the world to come. Increased sea levels, stronger storms, longer droughts, more wildfires, colder winters, hotter summers, and much more are what is in store if we do not dramatically reduce fossil fuel consumption. If there were two “sides,” I wonder what the worst-case scenario for each side of the argument would be. If we continue to burn fossil fuels, and the scientists predictions are correct, the damage we are doing to the earth will not be able to be reversed and we will have to adapt to living in a new type of world. People who have the opportunity to do something about this will have grandchildren and great grandchildren growing up on a much different planet. Even if the scientists’ predictions are incorrect, the fossil fuels that we rely on will eventually run out. Natural gas, gasoline, coal, and oil are all finite; they each have a point at which they can no longer be extracted. Looking at the other side of the argument, if we rise to the challenge of the 21st century and change to renewable sources of energy, we won’t be dependent on foreign suppliers, and we won’t have to have our military protecting foreign oil wells from any type of attack. We can mitigate the change that has already started to occur. If we do change and the scientists are wrong, we still have all of the pros of the argument—no dependence on foreign oil, cleaner air, fewer health risks from pollution. The earth is trying to tell us that something is wrong, and the scientists reporting this information are speaking for the Earth. When will we listen and 76 Peterman et al.; Climate Change Literacy and Education The Science and Perspectives from the Global Stage Volume 1 ACS Symposium Series; American Chemical Society: Washington, DC, 2017.
change our ways so that we can all leave our offspring in a better position and a better place than the generation prior?
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