BUSINESS
Strong Growth A h e a d in Paper decline;
Production held firm last year in face of business consumption of 5 0 million tons predicted for 1975
•p A PER and paperboard production in * 1954 registered a small gain of 0.5% to u total of 26.6 million tons, a record output. Currently, production in t h e first quarter of 1955 is running at the annual rate of 28.7 million tons, a rate which is 1 0 % ahead of the first quarters of 1953 and 1954. Unniied orders for paper have climbed to almost 750,000 tons, while monthly shipments are running at the r a t e of 1 million tons, according to the American Paper a n d Pulp Association. T h e current statistical positioi **gests a resumption of t h e growth L for the p a p e r industry, which has avera g e d 4 . 7 % over a n u m b e r of years. Sometimes regarded as a member of the chemical process industries, a n d certainly a large consumer of bulk chemicals, t h e paper a n d pulp industry boasted a value of sales equaling $8.7 billion last year, a total which accords the industry a ranking of sixth most important in the U n i t e d States. N e w uses for paper have accounted for a large part of the doubled production since 1939 when t h e industry produced 13.5 million t o n s . T h e kraft industry, for example, producer of course p a p e r for brown paper bags a n d of container board for corrugated a n d solid fiber shipping containers, has been o n e of the most rapidly growing a n d important sections of t h e paper industry- Other examples would have to include sanitary tissue paper and sanitary food board as represented by t h e paper milk container. P e r C a p i t a Consumption. The 257c rise in population since 1939 has certainly required growing paper a n d paperboard consumption, which equaled 31.2 million tons including imports (largely newsprint from Canada). The g r o w t h potential is measured in part by t h e per capita consumption gains, from 244 pounds in 1939 to 384 pounds in 1954. Forecasts of consumption have ranged as h i g h as 60 million tons by 1975, b u t some published estimates by the Paley report (51.7 million tons) a n d by the Stanford Research Institute (53.5 million tons) suggest that paper consumption may increase hy t w o thirds during t h e next 2 0 years. After subtracting imports, production of some 45 million t o n s might be required. Largest percentage increases w e r e forecast for building paper a n d paperboard and for sanitary (tissue 2568
and other) paper. Of course, there have been increasing indications that paper companies h a v e cast about for broader interests in the packaging field, extending to more intensive application .research i n the u s e of plastic materials alone a n d in combination with paper. Statistics on production of glassine coarse paper (combined with greaseproof a n d vegetable parchment paper) show virtually no growth since 1941.
Stablity. T h e p a p e r industry has enjoyed a lush period of growth over the past d e c a d e . Production has continued at over 9 0 % of capacity since World W a r II e x c e p t for the recession year of 1949 w h e n i t dropped to 8 2 . 6 % . Wood p u l p prices h a v e stabilized, and foreign imports n o longer flood the market. I n fact, w o o d p u l p exports exceeded overseas imports last year by 70,000 tons. Kxport markets for wood pulp have a considerable p o tential for growth in vie-sv of t h e small per capita paper consumption averaging only 2 0 pounds for t h e rest of t h e world. Plans for increased capacity in t h e paper industry suggest that b y . 1956 capacity will be enlarged by some 2 to
CSLEN CHARTS.
P R O C E S S
I N D U S T R I E S '
T R E N D S
CHEMICAL PR9CES vs. ALL WHOLESALE COMMODITBES PRICE INDEXES, 1947-1949 = 100
"O-ia
100
1953
1955
FERTILIZERS
COTTON
TAX TAG SALES IN 10 SOUTHERN & MIDWEST STATES, THOUSANDS OF SHORT TONS
CONSUMPTION THOUSANDS OF BALES
r MAR. 1839
A
M M ii r r i i i l i i
- MAR. • 892.9
AAAWN
¥
1 1 M 11 1 M 1
,PAPER
PAPER & PAPERBOARD
UNFILLED ORDERS. EXCLUDING BUILDING PAPER. NEWSPRINT. & PAPERBOARD. THOUSANDS OF SHORT TONS
C H E M I C A L
PRODUCTION THOUSANDS OF SHORT TONS
AND
ENGINEERING
NEWS
2.5 million tons t o a total of 31 million tons. If production was then maintained at t h e 1953 level, t h e industry w o u l d operate at 8 5 % of capacity. Allowing for the normal growth rate, production requirements next year could reach 30 million tons, or over 9 5 % of capacity. P a p e i b o a r d . Production of paperboard last year w a s slightly lower t h a n in 1 9 5 3 , a record year with production of 13.9 million tons. Most of t h e d e cline in shipments could b e attributed to a drop in demand for shipping cartons for durable consumer goods, such as various types of electrical appliances. Some slight reduction in inveni-/"trii^c
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