chemical hindsights itary, and scientific communities to is sues concerning the containment of deadly force from any source in a world in the throes of precipitous tech nological and political change would onflict in the future will be replace have completed their useful ser not be out of place. shaped heavily by the epochal, vice lives. For the past century and a half, the technology-driven change from Such high-technology weapons will modern nation-state has provided the the industrial age to the information age ensure the U.S.'s role as the only re world's organizing structure. The cor that is now well under way. Wars among maining military superpower. And they nerstone of this structure has been the nations will likely take a backseat to a will continue to deter nuclear or con nation-state1 s unique monopoly over range of conflicts that may crop up al ventional attacks on the U.S. the use of deadly force. It has been per most anywhere under various guises out But what concerned the experts in missible—even mandatory at times— side todays norms of international law Carlisle was the potential use of infor for citizens to kill in defense of their and Riles of engagement. mation and electronic technology7 by nation-state and its laws and institutions Amorphous enemies without territo groups to provide a political framework and in self-defense. Any other intention al killing has been prohibited and pun ries or borders could become a greater in support of terrorists and criminals. threat than traditional nation-state rival To such groups, the traditional bat ishable by the state. But now the nation-state itself is ries as "cyberstates" replace nations as changing in ways that are not yet fully the typical adversary. understood. The Soviet Union, which tri According to an article in the April umphed in spite of unimaginable devas 27 issue of Aviation Week & Space tation during World War Π, fell apart al Technology, these were some of the most without a shot being fired 45 years key points made during a recent gather later. East Germany, a repressive and ing of national security experts and the heavily armed regime, dissolved from oreticians at the Army War College in lack of public interest and support. In Carlisle, Pa. Western Europe, increasingly close polit As the AWSTarticle puts it: The new ical and economic union is undermining stateless enemy might be an amalgam of many of the traditional sovereign powers transnational or subnational adversaries, of the member states. outlaw syndicates, [and] corporations or Today, the thought of the German drug cartels. Terrorist, political, or crimi army once again breaking out of the Ar nal in nature, it could well be a hybrid of dennes and storming across northern all three. It might arise from the rubble France toward Paris, as it did 58 years of a failed state or from the bowels of a megacity, in a post-Cold War world in tlefield would be irrelevant. Because of ago, is utter fantasy. On the other hand, which security tlireats are increasingly their relative military weakness, they recent events in the Balkans and central iconoclastic and fragmented." would favor versatile systems and Africa reflect the reality that ethnic ties One theme of the gathering was that methods of attack that would be very can still be far stronger than national ties. The lesson from all this is that the the Pentagon is not doing enough to pre difficult to counter with conventional pare for a 21st-century strategic climate weapons but capable of disrupting and nation-state system does not provide an that will be far different from todays. In disabling their nation-state enemies immutable structure for handling world affairs, including deadly conflicts. stead, it is working on the assumption without destroying them. The fear that mass violence unrelat For instance, such cyberstates might that the overall world strategic situation will change very7 little in the next 20 seek to cause social panic by terrorist ed to nation-states could become in years or more. Its plans for new weapon acts; by the threat of chemical or biolog creasingly serious is not irrational. It is ical warfare; or by "no-intensity conflict" already a problem—witness the use of ry are in line with this belief. For instance, the U.S. currently has such as disrupting computer-based finan nerve gas in the Tokyo subway, the three huge new programs for military cial business, government, intelligence, bombings in New York City and Okla aircraft. One is for a fleet of upgraded and communications systems. For de homa City, and many other terrorist F-18s for the Navy. This program is al mocracies, they would add the complica acts throughout the world. As has often been demonstrated, de ready under way. The second is for the tion of blurring the distinction between terring and countering such violence is a F-22 figliter for the Air Force. It may go warfare and criminal activity. A full-blown equivalent of James very sophisticated and specialized activi into initial production by the end of this year. The third is a proposed $2(X) bil Bond's nemesis—the evil, power-hun ty. It involves intelligence, politics, mili lion-plus program for what is called the gry SPECTRE organization—may well tary skills, and science, as well as com Joint Strike Figliter (JSF). The Navy also be further into the future than the mitment and good organization. It is also has plans for a new class of nuclear at more alarmist speakers apparently sug an arena in which an overwhelming su tack submarine that, if built as sched gested at the war college colloquium. periority in conventional military capabil uled, would come into the fleet before But greater and well-coordinated atten ity is of little significance. Michael Heylin the highly capable submarines they will tion by the political, foreign-policy, mil
Technology and the changing face of war
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26 MAY 11, 1998 C&EN
